rocadelpunk
Diamond Member
- Jul 23, 2001
- 5,589
- 1
- 81
op
look up the word "bubble economy" for China.
It's well predicted in a commy econ system that if you open it up for free trade, there will just be a huge huge growth b/c people haven't had the opportunity. As stated by someone before, there's only a few economic hotzones that were opened up and they are incredibly successful, but the government is not going to open more. (look up j-curve...the CCP wants to stay in power : P)
The majority, like 90% of Chinese business is still under state control...basically, those businesses are propped up by the government and at some point the economic zones are going to stop growing so much and won't be able to make up the difference/support the propped up govt business...
Especially now that China joinged the WTO and will have to begin to play fair.
---
Now communism has been fairly successful in China b/c their ability to not oppress for the sake of oppresion...and when they do, it's concentrated in the city. I'm sure most of China is still rural farmers whose standard of living isn't that high...I mean really, there's not much of a middle class at all.
Look up unitary system as to why the rural peeps are content with CCP.
Also look up legitmacy of results/habit
and the history of the CCP (seen as fighters for China...in comparison to the nationalists who fled to taiwan)
----
Nobody, absolutely nobody predicted/wrote a paper even in like 1988/89 that communism would begin to fall, so it is kinda foolish to predict that China's govt. will...nothing is inevitable. However, there are some possibilities that eventually the commies will fall...
1 part bubble economy
1 part so called "experts" who are generally younger and may study in the u.s. (like a computer guru for example) are being allowed into the party (if you're in top of party you're the most influential)...these people are not chosen so much for their beleifs in adhering to communism/mao/etc..
These aren't gurantees, but it might be.
--------------
Now russia is interesting:
Russia is democratic, but Putin has been doing lots of things to consolidate lots and lots of power for himself. i.e. his own party, getting rid of radical parties but doing it with 7% minimum majority vote...v.s. other countries who have like 3-4...appointing governors of provinces...slew of examples. So, there is the worry that he might not step down after second term...among other things
Can't argue with the fact that Russians love a strong leader..
Once again, look up j-curve for Russia...even with help of intellectuals...there were just too many unforseen consequences, and it wasn't as easy a transition as people expected. There's a huge huge disparity between rich/poor...mostly b/c right after the switch to free market, people were given 25 dollars to invest and obviously people with know how/higher ups in soviet union made much much better investments.
Another reason as to why China's govt. is strong is b/c it's such a blend of various communist examples, they basically learn from past mistakes of everybody else.
ok. i'm done.
cliffs: China's economy is a bad example as to why they're succesful commies
However, China may still be communist for quite a while.
Putin is criticized (by outsiders from Russia) on his ...tricks...stay up to date with news I guess : P
look up the word "bubble economy" for China.
It's well predicted in a commy econ system that if you open it up for free trade, there will just be a huge huge growth b/c people haven't had the opportunity. As stated by someone before, there's only a few economic hotzones that were opened up and they are incredibly successful, but the government is not going to open more. (look up j-curve...the CCP wants to stay in power : P)
The majority, like 90% of Chinese business is still under state control...basically, those businesses are propped up by the government and at some point the economic zones are going to stop growing so much and won't be able to make up the difference/support the propped up govt business...
Especially now that China joinged the WTO and will have to begin to play fair.
---
Now communism has been fairly successful in China b/c their ability to not oppress for the sake of oppresion...and when they do, it's concentrated in the city. I'm sure most of China is still rural farmers whose standard of living isn't that high...I mean really, there's not much of a middle class at all.
Look up unitary system as to why the rural peeps are content with CCP.
Also look up legitmacy of results/habit
and the history of the CCP (seen as fighters for China...in comparison to the nationalists who fled to taiwan)
----
Nobody, absolutely nobody predicted/wrote a paper even in like 1988/89 that communism would begin to fall, so it is kinda foolish to predict that China's govt. will...nothing is inevitable. However, there are some possibilities that eventually the commies will fall...
1 part bubble economy
1 part so called "experts" who are generally younger and may study in the u.s. (like a computer guru for example) are being allowed into the party (if you're in top of party you're the most influential)...these people are not chosen so much for their beleifs in adhering to communism/mao/etc..
These aren't gurantees, but it might be.
--------------
Now russia is interesting:
Russia is democratic, but Putin has been doing lots of things to consolidate lots and lots of power for himself. i.e. his own party, getting rid of radical parties but doing it with 7% minimum majority vote...v.s. other countries who have like 3-4...appointing governors of provinces...slew of examples. So, there is the worry that he might not step down after second term...among other things
Can't argue with the fact that Russians love a strong leader..
Once again, look up j-curve for Russia...even with help of intellectuals...there were just too many unforseen consequences, and it wasn't as easy a transition as people expected. There's a huge huge disparity between rich/poor...mostly b/c right after the switch to free market, people were given 25 dollars to invest and obviously people with know how/higher ups in soviet union made much much better investments.
Another reason as to why China's govt. is strong is b/c it's such a blend of various communist examples, they basically learn from past mistakes of everybody else.
ok. i'm done.
cliffs: China's economy is a bad example as to why they're succesful commies
However, China may still be communist for quite a while.
Putin is criticized (by outsiders from Russia) on his ...tricks...stay up to date with news I guess : P
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