Is AMD mounting a successful comeback with Phenom II and others?

[Martimus]

Originally posted by: JackyP
Well the SPEC numbers published on spec.org and discussed at RWT show it to be superior in bandwidth heavy _rates, where K10 and K10.5 normally could rule against penryns. Over at techreport they wrote that even their 1P nehalem (I know it was differently configured) outperformed 2P Shanghai and Penryn in quite a lot benchmarks and they hinted at the power of nehalem many times in the article, I think it's even in their conclusion.
It.Anandtech showed Nehalem to be faster at Linpack.
Many reviews show even Penryn outperforming Shanghai in int workloads (e.g. sunguard ACR, spec_int, spec_int_rate; SPECjvm2008 <- similar performance).
Nehalem improves performance in those applications yet again. So nehalem seems to be faster in most (or at least a lot) of the benchmarks where K10/K10.5 used to rule. The rest is just an extrapolation, as nehalem is based on core 2 and shanghai on deneb and core 2 used to be better in most other applications...
The early leaks of desktop Deneb showed it to be ~5% faster than K10 (linked in my thread), not a single rumour or leak showed Deneb to be considerably faster than Penryn (even though those tend to hype up the products), additionally there's the rule 'a die shrink cannot magically improve your architecture by 15-20%'.

Thus "Shanghai won't have sufficient IPC on many workloads" can be supported as a fact.
You could have found that out yourself going to all the links I posted and read =)
Now I see the interesting tidbits are few and in between and maybe not that easy to find?
...
...
*must stop constantly editing posts* edit #7

Thanks for clarifying Jacky. I apologize if I insulted you at all, as that was not my intent.

 

[Idontcare]

Saw this posted on the aces forum:

Moody's downgrades AMD after weak 4Q guidance

Moody's Investors Service downgraded Advanced Micro Devices Inc.'s credit rating Wednesday, citing the chip company's recent warning that fourth-quarter sales will miss Wall Street estimates.

The ratings agency lowered AMD's rating by one notch to "B3" from "B2," both of which are non-investment, or "junk," grade. Moody's said the company's outlook is "Negative."

Moody's said declining profitability and cash flow will put increasing stress on AMD's liquidity through 2009.

In a statement, the agency said that AMD's revenue shortfall in the fourth quarter will likely result "an operating loss of approximately $350 million to $400 million ... excluding any potential restructuring charges." Moody's said it expects a similar loss at AMD in the first quarter of next year.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/...fter-apf-13799498.html

If this is true then we really got to hope these new PhII's command an nice ASP and gross margins, AMD is just hurting too much from the APS's of their 65nm SKU's.

AMD has said in the past that they believe they can ramp new process node faster than Intel, so hopefully that comes true and AMD ramps to 45nm volume quickly in Q2/Q3 next year.

 

[Phynaz]

Ouch, if true this puts AMD unable to function around mid to late February.

 

[piesquared]

lol Don't get you're hopes up Phynaz.

 

[OCGuy]

Originally posted by: piesquared
lol Don't get you're hopes up Phynaz.

It's pretty serious. Even if enthusiasts pick up on PII because they like the AMD name instead of Yorkie, I dont know that they will pick up any real marketshare. AMD had a better chip for a while, and couldnt break the marketshare plateau. Them coming out and roughly equaling 1+ yr old Intel tech is not going to move mountains. They are getting a cash-infusion from the Arabs and dumping some assets. We'll see how H1 2009 goes.

Its bad news for everyone. Intel would love to charge 1.5X for every chip if there were no competition. AMD would do the same thing.

 

[BLaber]

Its ok Ocguy31 and Phynaz go ahead and buy your Thousand Dollars i7 set-up and I will buy mine Hundred dollars Deneb set-up and still beat you by overclocking it so much that u cant even come close

 

[JackyP]

Originally posted by: BLaber
Its ok Ocguy31 and Phynaz go ahead and buy your Thousand Dollars i7 set-up and I will buy mine Hundred dollars Deneb set-up and still beat you by overclocking it so much that u cant even come close

Huh? Deneb is not competing with i7 FWIW. As I like to point out it's competing with very mature 45nm, 2*107mm^2 chips that clock equally well - no even better going by the current data. As of yet we do not have enough data to fully predict the performance of Deneb (Desktop), but it's not looking to be faster than yorkfields.
Even if Phenom 2 has the potential to be a success and increase ASPs a lot, AMD needs to ramp-up their 45 nm output in an extremely difficult economic climate during seasonally weak quarters. Without much of a dual core line-up for the next quarters.

BTW it seems that phenom 2 clocks a bit worse on highend air/water, but better on LN2 than Nehalems. What do you think?

I've even tried to spice up this post with as much optimism as is realistically possible, but it still sounds pretty bad, IDK why...

 

[bradley]

Deneb likely won't compete with i7 in its current iteration. The i7 runs extremely hot even at stock. Early reports also seem to indicate signs of significant current leakage near the chip's threshold. It's also comparatively a very expensive platform, a certain lowlight in these harsh economic times. We're certainly starting to get indications as to where the Phenom II might be different.

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: bradley
Deneb likely won't compete with i7 in its current iteration.

As things get heated recently when discussing performance speculation of PhII we really need to go the extra effort in our posts to distinguish whether we really mean IPC, IPC/dollar, IPC/watt.

Which of these metrics do you perceive Deneb not competing with i7?

(not a facetious question, really hoping you clarify so no one gets prematurely excited)

Originally posted by: bradley
The i7 runs extremely hot even at stock.

You mean temperature? Based on the stock heatsink that ships with i7? Based on software that is guessing at the TJmax for i7?

I spent the last year thinking my Q6600 temps were 10C higher than they really were because the TJmax guessed at by coretemp was 10C higher than Intel's undisclosed TJmax for my chip.

Regardless I still don't get why folks spend sooooo much time and energy focused on their processor temp. Sure you can't ignore it, but it is not the end-all be-all of any metric of performance or performance efficiency. Power consumption yes, temperature no.

Originally posted by: bradley
Early reports also seem to indicate signs of current leakage near the chip's threshold.

What early reports? And what does this sentence mean? "current leakage near the chip's threshold"...I can't really figure out what that means. Are you referring to Iddq or Ioff?

Originally posted by: bradley
It's also comparatively a very expensive platform, a certain lowlight in these harsh economic times. We're certainly starting to get indications as to where the Phenom II might be different.

You are only referring to AM2+, not AM3, yes? And you are referring to prices of a currently existing and purchasable platform versus prices of a non-existent non-purchasable platform, yes?

Who is to say that Intel won't do with Q9550 and Q9650 as Nvidia did with GTX260/280 when the 4850/4870 was released? Arguing that AM2+ will be cheaper than current prices for Yorkfield and/or i7 platforms is pointless.

An equilibrium will be established. Q6600 and P35 mobo prices came down just as was needed to keep Phenom/AM2 system prices in check. I expect no less of Intel for 2009.

I am excited by the prospects of PhII. I have every expectation that they will be priced to be performance/cost competitive with Intel once both sides have iterated thru their initial pricing oscillations.

Where things can get really exciting for us enthusiasts is that unlike the PhI vs. Q6600 days, PhII appears to really give overclockers a good chance to squeeze some serious OC out of the chips whereas getting above 3.6-3.8GHz on a yorkfield appears to be a total PITA because of their low multipliers and FSB OC limitations on P35/X38 boards that don't cost $250.

So OC'ed PhII vs. OC'ed Q9550/9650 stands good chances of favoring the PhII for performance/dollar IMO and that makes me particularly intrigued.

 

[OCGuy]

Originally posted by: BLaber
Its ok Ocguy31 and Phynaz go ahead and buy your Thousand Dollars i7 set-up and I will buy mine Hundred dollars Deneb set-up and still beat you by overclocking it so much that u cant even come close

Why would I have to buy anything? I have a chip that will more than likely remain faster than anything else in the near future for the purposes that I use it.

You also just assumed that a Deneb setup would be $100? That would be great if it is true. I would buy 10! I dont think i'd get the chance, however, beause AMD would be no more at that price.

 

[Phynaz]

Originally posted by: BLaber
Its ok Ocguy31 and Phynaz go ahead and buy your Thousand Dollars i7 set-up and I will buy mine Hundred dollars Deneb set-up and still beat you by overclocking it so much that u cant even come close

The equipment I would buy based upon the i7 platform would cost many times more than $1,000. As does the equipment based upon AMD platforms I buy.

And BTW, corporations don't overclock. We just spend more money when we want better performace .

 

[Phynaz]

Originally posted by: bradley
It's also comparatively a very expensive platform, a certain lowlight in these harsh economic times.

Compared to what?

I can get 20% - 40% better performance for spending 10% - 20% more money on a low end server.

Sounds just like what I need in harsh times.

 

[Phynaz]

Originally posted by: piesquared
lol Don't get you're hopes up Phynaz.

About what?

 

[Martimus]

Originally posted by: Phynaz

Originally posted by: bradley
It's also comparatively a very expensive platform, a certain lowlight in these harsh economic times.

Compared to what?

I can get 20% - 40% better performance for spending 10% - 20% more money on a low end server.

Sounds just like what I need in harsh times.

I didn't realize the i7 servers were available for sale right now.

 

[Phynaz]

Originally posted by: Martimus

Originally posted by: Phynaz

Originally posted by: bradley
It's also comparatively a very expensive platform, a certain lowlight in these harsh economic times.

Compared to what?

I can get 20% - 40% better performance for spending 10% - 20% more money on a low end server.

Sounds just like what I need in harsh times.

I didn't realize the i7 servers were available for sale right now.

As available as Shanghai servers

 

[aigomorla]

Originally posted by: Martimus

Originally posted by: Phynaz

Originally posted by: bradley
It's also comparatively a very expensive platform, a certain lowlight in these harsh economic times.

Compared to what?

I can get 20% - 40% better performance for spending 10% - 20% more money on a low end server.

Sounds just like what I need in harsh times.

I didn't realize the i7 servers were available for sale right now.

uhhh FIND ME A GAINESTOWN board if you think there on sale right now.

As of right now a friend is trying really hard to get SM to sport me a board. There not out yet... So where you guys seeing Neha-EP servers?

 

[OCGuy]

Originally posted by: aigomorla

Originally posted by: Martimus

Originally posted by: Phynaz

Originally posted by: bradley
It's also comparatively a very expensive platform, a certain lowlight in these harsh economic times.

Compared to what?

I can get 20% - 40% better performance for spending 10% - 20% more money on a low end server.

Sounds just like what I need in harsh times.

I didn't realize the i7 servers were available for sale right now.

uhhh FIND ME A GAINESTOWN board if you think there on sale right now.

As of right now a friend is trying really hard to get SM to sport me a board. There not out yet... So where you guys seeing Neha-EP servers?

An early Xmas present Aigo...


For your meter

 

[Martimus]

Originally posted by: Phynaz

Originally posted by: Martimus

Originally posted by: Phynaz

Originally posted by: bradley
It's also comparatively a very expensive platform, a certain lowlight in these harsh economic times.

Compared to what?

I can get 20% - 40% better performance for spending 10% - 20% more money on a low end server.

Sounds just like what I need in harsh times.

I didn't realize the i7 servers were available for sale right now.

As available as Shanghai servers

First hit on Google. Shanghai is available for sale now (see link). It was released a few weeks ago.

 

[aigomorla]

Originally posted by: Ocguy31
For your meter

lulz..

batteries??

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: aigomorla

Originally posted by: Ocguy31
For your meter

lulz..

batteries??

For your sarcasm meter, a hint that it is broken and/or has dead batteries...cuz you didn't get OCguy's sarcasm... nor his battery hint

Don't feel bad, I scratched my head for a few seconds too. Very clever OCguy, me likes!

 

[aigomorla]

Originally posted by: Idontcare

For your sarcasm meter, a hint that it is broken and/or has dead batteries...cuz you didn't get OCguy's sarcasm... nor his battery hint

Don't feel bad, I scratched my head for a few seconds too. Very clever OCguy, me likes!

ohhh....

OC u gonna need to give me a toshiba mini nuke reactor, those batteries wont last no more then ummm 5 seconds.

 

[Idontcare]

Originally posted by: aigomorla

Originally posted by: Idontcare

For your sarcasm meter, a hint that it is broken and/or has dead batteries...cuz you didn't get OCguy's sarcasm... nor his battery hint

Don't feel bad, I scratched my head for a few seconds too. Very clever OCguy, me likes!

ohhh....

OC u gonna need to give me a toshiba mini nuke reactor, those batteries wont last no more then ummm 5 seconds.

:laugh: Yeah around here portable sarcasm meters are kinda pointless. We all need to be hardwired into the 110/220V land-line!

 

[Nemesis 1]

Originally posted by: BLaber
Its ok Ocguy31 and Phynaz go ahead and buy your Thousand Dollars i7 set-up and I will buy mine Hundred dollars Deneb set-up and still beat you by overclocking it so much that u cant even come close

Hay its nice your excited . Everyone is OK. But Lets not get stupid. To beat Intels best is going to cost alot more than $900. To be honest I don't think AMD can . But thats just me. AMD might beat IC7 right now. IN GHZ Overclock maybe. But this is still a performance per clock race. Don't even turn it into that. I will tell you why. AMD is pumping alot of volts to get these overclocks. AMD still has to obey the laws of physics here. Them volts are being converted to heat thats for fact. The reason I say be careful about the ghZ thing. Its cool and all but it HAS TO BEAT INTEL IN PERFORMANCE.

Remember P4 right lets not turn AMDs great success here with P2 into something none want . AMD has to beat intell in performance period. To get the crown. But coming close is so cool. Lets not forget intel has another few stepping coming. As does AMD

That said man I can't wait for the P2-3 to come out I want one they look good.

 

[Idontcare]

http://vr-zone.com/articles/am...ift/6273.html?doc=6273

VR-zone has a slide that appears to be an AMD generated slide breaking out the various contributions to a claim of 20% performance improvement in 3GHz AM3 PhII over a 2.6GHz PhI.

(and yes the 15% increase in GHz accounts for 12% in that 20% number)

If this is true then it kinda squashes those earlier hopes of there being a 35% increase in performance with 20% of it being attributable to IPC increases alone.

 

[Tempered81]

Originally posted by: Ocguy31
I have a chip that will more than likely remain faster than anything else in the near future for the purposes that I use it.

:shocked: This is sad, but true. Until quads start to rock in gaming benchmarks.