Is a Robot Going to Steal Your Job? (60 Minutes segment)

[BoberFett]

The end goal of technology is 100% unemployment. Using tech to eliminate jobs is a GOOD thing, because it means we have found a way to achieve the same ends more cheaply, quickly, or efficiently.

The issues we are talking about here is how we as a society deal with that technological disruption. It is where social safety nets come in, among other things.

While I think our current "safety nets" such as welfare and food stamps are a model destined for failure through the crushing of the human spirit, I agree that society needs to find a way to deal with the disruption.

 

[fskimospy]

While I think our current "safety nets" such as welfare and food stamps are a model destined for failure through the crushing of the human spirit, I agree that society needs to find a way to deal with the disruption.

While I would disagree, I feel like that is a different discussion. I think the important thing here is that we should not be afraid of technological advancement destroying jobs. Your farming example is a good one. We could have 100% employment if we all engaged in subsistence farming. That's what we did for most of human history. I think we're all pretty happy that technology destroyed those jobs.

 

[Engineer]

Doppel...not to mention that wages have stagnated for the middle and lower classes while productivity has skyrocketed.

What you describe (Doppel and esk) is (to me) the "Star Trek" society....where money has no value and people work for the betterment of themselves and society as a whole.

 

[fskimospy]

Doppel...not to mention that wages have stagnated for the middle and lower classes while productivity has skyrocketed.

What you describe (Doppel and esk) is (to me) the "Star Trek" society....where money has no value and people work for the betterment of themselves and society as a whole.

It's not so much the utopian star trek society, I just mean that the inevitable result of sufficiently advanced technology is that it does everything we want for us. I have no idea if we would ever get there, but technology inherently replaces human labor because that's what we make it for.

 

[Engineer]

It's not so much the utopian star trek society, I just mean that the inevitable result of sufficiently advanced technology is that it does everything we want for us. I have no idea if we would ever get there, but technology inherently replaces human labor because that's what we make it for.

Everything...and I mean everything that has been in Star Trek comes true. That damn Gene Roddenberry was a damn genius....and from the future. No other explanation!

 

[fskimospy]

Everything...and I mean everything that has been in Star Trek comes true. That damn Gene Roddenberry was a damn genius....and from the future. No other explanation!

I always liked how they had laser guns and intergalactic travel but still used 3.5" floppies. (or what looked like them)

 

[Engineer]

I always liked how they had laser guns and intergalactic travel but still used 3.5" floppies. (or what looked like them)

and all of their monitors were of the CRT type!

 

[mshan]

http://www.engadget.com/2013/09/10/visualized-inside-the-moto-x-factory/




edit: (from comments section of that article)

"They use 3rd party companies to hire Mexican and Asian workers, and put them up in dorms near the factory. The few Americans they do have are in higher positions (notice the different color uniforms). It is next to impossible for a white/black Texas resident to get an entry level position there".

So may not be the feel good story I thought it was when I originally posted it.

 

[Engineer]

http://www.engadget.com/2013/09/10/visualized-inside-the-moto-x-factory/

Damn, that's awesome. I was all up for getting one but it's AT&T only (or so I just read)....

 

[WhipperSnapper]

The entire subject is a red-herring designed to distract Americans from the real problem.

Saying robots will take our jobs away is like saying the invention of the automobile will result in widespread poverty as buggy makers and horseshoers go out of business. It's like saying that light bulbs will create an economic disaster by putting all the candlemakers out of work.

In reality, a technological invention like that frees up human capital to work doing other tasks, such as repairing the robots, etc. It lowers the price of the goods/services the robots are providing allowing people to produce other goods and services.

The real problem is not job displacement from robots and technological advance, but rather Global Labor Arbitrage. The problem is that jobs are being shipped overseas (foreign outsourcing) or filled by imported foreign labor on work visas (H-1B, L-1, TN, J-1, etc.) or filled by impoverished foreign immigrant labor (immigration).

 

[Rebel44]

When we have reliable self-driving cars - that will be job masacre.

 

[OverVolt]

I think in the long term this trend will eventually reverse. Robots are really just about externalizing the true cost of production onto someone else. There is a huge societal cost when a very, very elite few own technological means of production like that and reap benefit from millions who use their products.

I think the pollution and raw materials cost is also likely externalized, like the pollution China faces from manufacturing all of our stuff we externalized onto them. I don't really want to go much into it though. For now its someone elses problem but it'll eventually be everyone's problem then things will have to change.

 

[shira]

The entire subject is a red-herring designed to distract Americans from the real problem.

Saying robots will take our jobs away is like saying the invention of the automobile will result in widespread poverty as buggy makers and horseshoers go out of business. It's like saying that light bulbs will create an economic disaster by putting all the candlemakers out of work.

In reality, a technological invention like that frees up human capital to work doing other tasks, such as repairing the robots, etc. It lowers the price of the goods/services the robots are providing allowing people to produce other goods and services.

The real problem is not job displacement from robots and technological advance, but rather Global Labor Arbitrage. The problem is that jobs are being shipped overseas (foreign outsourcing) or filled by imported foreign labor on work visas (H-1B, L-1, TN, J-1, etc.) or filled by impoverished foreign immigrant labor (immigration).

When robots begin to repair and design robots, replacement/displacement of humans becomes a geometric progression and your "etc." falls off a cliff. Development of AI will eventually advance to the point where mass-produced robots will be smarter than the smartest humans. Try coming up with "new technology" careers for humans in that future world.

Hell, I can even envision a future where we no longer pair off with human partners, as completely life-like, perfect-10, 100% compatible automatons will be available to satisfy our every need.

 

[OverVolt]

When robots begin to repair and design robots, replacement/displacement of humans becomes a geometric progression and your "etc." falls off a cliff. Development of AI will eventually advance to the point where mass-produced robots will be smarter than the smartest humans. Try coming up with "new technology" careers for humans in that future world.

Hell, I can even envision a future where we no longer pair off with human partners, as completely life-like, perfect-10, 100% compatible automatons will be available to satisfy our every need.

Uhh right yeah.

 

[Doppel]

Uhh right yeah.

He raises entirely plausible points. He's not talking 10 or 20 years into the future, but further.

History always repeats itself until it doesn't, and there are plenty examples of it not.

In reality, a technological invention like that frees up human capital to work doing other tasks, such as repairing the robots, etc. It lowers the price of the goods/services the robots are providing allowing people to produce other goods and services.

It has freed it up, but i just don't see any hard and fast rule that it always will.

At the very essence of this argument is: Machines are evolving, humans are not.

 

[BoberFett]

I'll just leave this here.

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/518661/smart-robots-can-now-work-right-next-to-auto-workers/

This robot assistant used to be someone's job...

 

[Engineer]

I'll just leave this here.

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/518661/smart-robots-can-now-work-right-next-to-auto-workers/

This robot assistant used to be someone's job...

Wait, that can't be. There are people that say so....right here in this thread. :whiste:

That person or those people were moved around, not replaced. Get your shit straight, dammit.

Edit: and see, I was right. They weren't replaced....just enhanced. Again, get your shit straight.

 

[Retro Rob]

I remeber fellow classmates and teachers throughout the 80's and 90's both lamenting and celebrating the idea that we'd have flying cars and would live in cities in the sky by the year 2000.

No need worrying about something that hasn't happened yet.

 

[xBiffx]

I'll just leave this here.

http://www.technologyreview.com/news/518661/smart-robots-can-now-work-right-next-to-auto-workers/

This robot assistant used to be someone's job...

Wait, that can't be. There are people that say so....right here in this thread. :whiste:

That person or those people were moved around, not replaced. Get your shit straight, dammit.

Its funny because it seems that article is talking about how a robot hasn't replaced a human worker, but rather just enhanced their job.

While many fear that this trend could put people out of work (see “How Technology Is Destroying Jobs&#8221, proponents argue it will instead make employees more productive, relieving them of the most unpleasant and burdensome jobs.

Key word seems to be instead in that statement.

At BMW’s South Carolina plant, robots made by the Danish company Universal Robots have broken through this barrier and are helping workers perform final door assembly.

Key words seems to be helping (not replacing) in that statement.

According to Bartscher, final assembly robots will not replace human workers; they will extend their careers......"We want to get the robots to support the humans."

Seems pretty self explanatory there.

BMW is testing even more sophisticated final assembly robots that are mobile and capable of collaborating directly with human colleagues. These robots, which should be introduced in the next few years, could conceivably hand their human colleague a wrench when he or she needs it.

Again, pretty self explanatory.

Yep, that article surely put this debate to bed. :whiste:

 

[Engineer]

Oh sorry....BMW just felt like inserting more robots into the line at their cost to assist the humans working there. They did this out of the kindness of their hearts. If only every company would now make it easier on its' employees, especially doing it at 'their cost'. Heck, soon people can sit back and watch their 'helper robots' do the job for them and the companies will be ever so happy to keep paying them.

/fantasyland

Making employees more productive? Well I'm sure it does when you remove employees from the line...the remaining employees producing the same (or more) amount of work = more productive worker. LOL.

I can't wait to talk to my boss tomorrow to see if I can get a robot to assist me and make me more productive....of course, at his cost. Maybe he'll give me a raise too to compensate me for my rising production.

 

[Zaap]

People keep quoting this "productivity has skyrocketed" nonsense with all the usual ignorance.

People's productivity hasn't gone up to some superhuman level or anything, people merely have unprecedented access to information, technology and computing power.

The guy that delivers a parcel scans a barcode and send tracking data: he does in an eye-blink what used to take a few minutes time- or rather- the machine in his hand does.

The person behind the counter at JiffyMart uses more computing power just to ring up a candy bar as it took to put a person on the moon- but that's not really that person being more productive, it's just they have insanely better machines that do a lot for them.

Someone's boss no longer has to track a person down wherever they're napping, they can IM a person on their cell phone in and tell them to send some needed information, which that person does on their phone and goes right back to slacking off- again, not really increased effort, just better tech.

Add in a bazillion other examples and that's where much of the increased productivity is actually coming from.

 

[BoberFett]

Its funny because it seems that article is talking about how a robot hasn't replaced a human worker, but rather just enhanced their job.

Without a robot, how do you suppose that work would be accomplished? Perhaps another person handing them a tool or otherwise helping them accomplish their task?

Thinking that machines don't replace workers is such an insane idea, I don't even know how to argue with you. The whole idea of machines is to make work easier.

 

[Sonikku]

doublepost delete

 

[Sonikku]

Much like cars, someone has to repair all of those robots when they bust. When they need a refuel. When it needs a new battery. When it needs a firmware upgrade.

It then becomes a matter of: Do you have the skills to repair it and know how it functions?

Then they just make robots that can repair other robots.

But then we have jobs fixing robots that repair other robots. :awe:

But then they make robots that can fix robots that repair other robots and the insanity continues.

 

[xBiffx]

Without a robot, how do you suppose that work would be accomplished? Perhaps another person handing them a tool or otherwise helping them accomplish their task?

Thinking that machines don't replace workers is such an insane idea, I don't even know how to argue with you. The whole idea of machines is to make work easier.

Its being accomplished by that same person that is being helped. It just makes that person's job safer and/or easier.

Did you even read the article before you posted it? Its quite clear that its talking about augmenting a human worker and not replacing them.