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Thu, September 5, 2002
Analysts: Iraqi drones are for biowarfare
THE WASHINGTON POST
In the waning hours of Operation Desert Fox in 1998, a British missile sheared off the top of a military hangar in southern Iraq and exposed a closely guarded secret. Plainly visible in the rubble was a new breed of Iraqi drone aircraft - one that defense analysts now believe was specially modified to spread deadly chemicals and germs.
Up to 12 of the unmanned airplanes were spotted inside the hangar, each fitted with spray nozzles and wing-mounted tanks that could carry up to 80 gallons of liquid anthrax. If flown at low altitudes under the right conditions, a single drone could unleash a toxic cloud engulfing several city blocks, a top British defense official concluded. He dubbed them "drones of death."
Today, Iraq's drones loom even larger as the Bush administration weighs a possible new strike against Saddam Hussein. The United States and Britain have said that Saddam is working to obtain chemical, biological and possibly nuclear weapons. A key unanswered question is whether Iraq has the means to deliver such weapons.
According to U.S. and allied intelligence officials and U.N. documents, Iraq has worked with apparently mixed success to diversify a patchwork collection of delivery vehicles that now includes not only Scud missiles, which it launched during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, but also a variety of novel machines for spraying pathogens and poisons from aircraft. Iraq deployed but never used chemical and biological weapons in the 1991 war.
The military significance of the threat posed by such an arsenal remains less clear. Drones are easy to shoot down, and it is far from certain that an aircraft-mounted chemical or biological attack would work - especially against troops, experts familiar with the weapons systems note. Iraq's missile industry, which struggled to tame the unreliable Scud before the 1991 war, is hobbled by U.N. trade sanctions, which are now in their 12th year.
But at minimum, the analysts agree, Iraq's expanded capabilities appear to offer new ways to terrorize civilian populations, including the cities of Israel, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, among others which could bear the brunt of Iraqi retaliation.
"These aircraft are intended to fly below radar so the Israelis can't detect them - the Iraqis themselves have said so," said a British biowarfare expert who investigated Iraq's experiments with aircraft-mounted biological weapons. "From that altitude, you can do a lot of damage over a very large area."
The delivery systems believed to be available for such an attack include at least some of the drones targeted in the British raid four years ago. The L-29 aircraft, as the drones are known, are one of at least three types of pilotless planes Iraq has tested for use in biological and chemical attacks, according to U.S. intelligence officials and U.N. documents.
In addition, Iraq is known to have converted crop-dusting gear into a germ-spraying device mounted on helicopters, U.N. files show. It also has developed biowarfare "drop tanks" that can be mounted on Iraq's fastest fighter aircraft.
These little-noticed innovations - many of them discovered by U.N. weapons inspectors in Iraq - supplement an established Iraqi ballistic-missile program that Pentagon officials say is slowly being rebuilt after being nearly destroyed in previous U.S.-led attacks.
The CIA and the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency say they believe that Iraq's missile arsenal now includes two types of short-range missiles and a small number of medium-range Scuds that Iraq's military managed to hide from U.N. inspectors after the Gulf War. In addition, they say, Iraq probably retains dozens of missile warheads and possibly many more rockets and artillery shells that were filled with biological or chemical weapons years ago.
Big gaps exist in the West's knowledge of each of these programs.
The unknowns are critically important, because they bear directly on the central question in the Iraq debate: whether Iraq's weapons of mass destruction pose a significant threat to the United States and its allies.
The precise nature of Iraq's arsenal of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons is also unclear. The CIA maintains that Iraq has residual stocks of biological and chemical weapons it manufactured before the 1991 war. U.S. intelligence officials also say they believe that Iraq is secretly trying to acquire new weapons, referring to accounts by Iraqi defectors and satellite photos showing old weapons factories being rebuilt. Iraq's progress in acquiring nuclear weapons is uncertain. Former U.N. inspectors say that Iraq was only months away from making a crude nuclear device when Operation Desert Storm began.
Before inspections abruptly ended in 1998, U.N. officials crisscrossed Iraq searching for a rumored new drone that could carry biological and chemical munitions. Not a shred of evidence turned up until Dec. 17 of that year, when British Tornado jets swooped over Iraq's Talil air base southeast of Baghdad and reaped an intelligence bonanza.
Photos of the ruined base showed rows of the new drones, which Iraq had hidden inside a hangar at the remote base. The aircraft were identified as Czech-made L-29s, a light trainer jet Iraq had bought years ago and converted to unmanned flight. The tanks for spraying biological and chemical agents appeared to be an Iraqi adaptation.