Iraq in ten years

[eastvillager]

never happen. not for a very, very, very, very long time, if ever.

Separation of church and state is an incomprehensible concept to your typical Iraqi. Without grasping that concept, your typical Iraqi is a member of some religious and or ethnic subgroup BEFORE he is an Iraqi, and that prevents democracy.

 

[Bowmaster]

Let's look at the best case scenario in Iraq. The economy is humming along, the elected representatives are working in harmony despite the religious faction's differences, the country has the respect of Europe and the US, and best of all- they are self supporting.

Yup, that's the best case scenario. What makes you think it will turn out that way? Is it heading in the direction now? The answer: NO. We are seen as occupiers. Once they get us out of there, the traditional Theocracy will take over and bring them right back where they were - only worse. They will now hold a grudge against up for having invaded their country.

 

[Bitek]

Chances of democracy aside, I don't buy the arguement that having a democracy will necc lead to peace in Iraq. I think if you did a hard count, most of the world's democracies are in trouble and/or failing. Just this year you could count Haiti, Venezuela, Columbia, (hell, throw in most of S America,) Zimbabwe (not really a democ. anymore,) Liberia, DR of Congo, Russia (?), etc etc.

Ok, just for arguements sake that Iraq manages to pull together a democracy ( a big assumption,) who is to say that they will be peaceful and prosperous? Haiti has been trying for ~50 years and they still don't have it right. The biggest indicator of success seems to be wealth. That is a huge reason why Japan and Ger succeded IMO, and why many of these second-tier countries consistantly fail.

Now, where does Iraq sit? Obviously on a s@#%load of oil, but other than that they really don't have anything. They are a one-dimentional economy for the most part. IF the oil wealth is broadly distributed ( :roll: ) they may have a chance but I'm not betting on it (especially given their social situation, lack of political experience and underdeveloped infrastructure.) Venezuela and Nigeria both have strong oil revenues but these don't seem to trickle down well. If anything, oil wealth seems more of a curse than a blessing as many oil-producing countries are racked with social strife and strong gentrification which usually leads to unrest.

The idea that simply bringing in democracy to turn Iraq (and the rest of the middle east) into a happy, prosperous and peaceful Western-style democracy anytime soon seems a crack-pipe dream at best.

 

[Zedtom]

Perhaps I erred in suggesting a government based on the United States. A better choice would be the United Arab Emirates situated to the south of Iraq on the Persian gulf.

The government of the U.A.E. recognizes the different factions within their country with the organization of their parliament. They are an oil exporting country with a solid economic foundation.

 

[magomago]

Originally posted by: Bowmaster

Let's look at the best case scenario in Iraq. The economy is humming along, the elected representatives are working in harmony despite the religious faction's differences, the country has the respect of Europe and the US, and best of all- they are self supporting.

Yup, that's the best case scenario. What makes you think it will turn out that way? Is it heading in the direction now? The answer: NO. We are seen as occupiers. Once they get us out of there, the traditional Theocracy will take over and bring them right back where they were - only worse. They will now hold a grudge against up for having invaded their country.

Not from what I've heard. I've heard from many arabs that "they are arabs first, and then muslims"
and this is from eypgtions, iraqis, syrians, jordanians, etc. etc.

btw~ modeled on the USA how? Governmentally? socially? what?

 

[digitalsm]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Fencer128

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Fencer128

Originally posted by: Zedtom
Let's look at the best case scenario in Iraq. The economy is humming along, the elected representatives are working in harmony despite the religious faction's differences, the country has the respect of Europe and the US, and best of all- they are self supporting.

Who would reject such a scenario? The Saudis? Iran? Israel?

I challenge all the hard-core cynics to break free from their pessimistic views of the world. Terrorism and unforseen disasters are always going to be with us, but let's think positive.

Oh, by the way, I'm no Bushite. It's going to take a bigger leader than him to make this happen.

Hi,

I admire your optimism - but that's how I see it - optimism. I see no facts that make me feel that what you suggest will happen in the next 10 years.

I don't want to be right or pessimistic, I just can't help it given the way Iraq is right now.

Cheers,

Andy

From what i gather many shared you pessimism in post WWII about japan and germany....

Hi,

Maybe. I wasn't around then. Are they good parallels to Iraq though? I mean the way I see it the most likely outcome in the next 10 years (as put in the OP) is another dictator springing up, a theocracy or a civil war/division - probably a little of all 3 in fact. I've seen nothing really to convince me that these people want a real democracy?

Cheers,

Andy

There are some parallels. There was virtually no resistance in japan and some in germany. Both countries had been almost completely destroyed. Many mistakes were made in the reconstruction of both Germany and Japan. Critics complained about the cost and speed of the reconstruction.

The problem is, a high precentage of Iraq is uneducated. Most of Japan and Germany was HIGHLY educated. Thats a wee bit more important than the issues you mentioned. Education is the paramount of democracy.

 

[Klixxer]

Originally posted by: digitalsm

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Fencer128

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Fencer128

Originally posted by: Zedtom
Let's look at the best case scenario in Iraq. The economy is humming along, the elected representatives are working in harmony despite the religious faction's differences, the country has the respect of Europe and the US, and best of all- they are self supporting.

Who would reject such a scenario? The Saudis? Iran? Israel?

I challenge all the hard-core cynics to break free from their pessimistic views of the world. Terrorism and unforseen disasters are always going to be with us, but let's think positive.

Oh, by the way, I'm no Bushite. It's going to take a bigger leader than him to make this happen.

Hi,

I admire your optimism - but that's how I see it - optimism. I see no facts that make me feel that what you suggest will happen in the next 10 years.

I don't want to be right or pessimistic, I just can't help it given the way Iraq is right now.

Cheers,

Andy

From what i gather many shared you pessimism in post WWII about japan and germany....

Hi,

Maybe. I wasn't around then. Are they good parallels to Iraq though? I mean the way I see it the most likely outcome in the next 10 years (as put in the OP) is another dictator springing up, a theocracy or a civil war/division - probably a little of all 3 in fact. I've seen nothing really to convince me that these people want a real democracy?

Cheers,

Andy

There are some parallels. There was virtually no resistance in japan and some in germany. Both countries had been almost completely destroyed. Many mistakes were made in the reconstruction of both Germany and Japan. Critics complained about the cost and speed of the reconstruction.

The problem is, a high precentage of Iraq is uneducated. Most of Japan and Germany was HIGHLY educated. Thats a wee bit more important than the issues you mentioned. Education is the paramount of democracy.

Would you say India is a democracy? Well, considering that a larger procentage of Iraqis are educated it could work there too, don't you think?

The problem as i see it is that you cannot create a democracy by force, people have to want it and fight for it themselves.

And you are wrong, equality is the paramount of democracy, without it no (real) democracy can exist.

 

[boran]

they could make the gouvernment system like here in belgium, here we also have two very different groups (the flemish and the wallon ppls) but the whole stuff is so complicated it's an over 300 page book just to frigging explain it, in short each group has it's own leadership, and then there's another leadership over the whole country and each handles it's own seperate task albeit inside the same country ... but ehm ... much more difficult, major disadvantage of this system is extreme buraucratic slowness, and regular issues about which part of gouvernment will handle what. advantage is ehm .. well .. it works ... so far .... and we havent had any wars yet (if you mean between the ppls, we've been the battlefield of many wars, but that's besides the point here)