Iraq in ten years

[Zedtom]

Let's look at the best case scenario in Iraq. The economy is humming along, the elected representatives are working in harmony despite the religious faction's differences, the country has the respect of Europe and the US, and best of all- they are self supporting.

Who would reject such a scenario? The Saudis? Iran? Israel?

I challenge all the hard-core cynics to break free from their pessimistic views of the world. Terrorism and unforseen disasters are always going to be with us, but let's think positive.

Oh, by the way, I'm no Bushite. It's going to take a bigger leader than him to make this happen.

 

[Fencer128]

Originally posted by: Zedtom
Let's look at the best case scenario in Iraq. The economy is humming along, the elected representatives are working in harmony despite the religious faction's differences, the country has the respect of Europe and the US, and best of all- they are self supporting.

Who would reject such a scenario? The Saudis? Iran? Israel?

I challenge all the hard-core cynics to break free from their pessimistic views of the world. Terrorism and unforseen disasters are always going to be with us, but let's think positive.

Oh, by the way, I'm no Bushite. It's going to take a bigger leader than him to make this happen.

Hi,

I admire your optimism - but that's how I see it - optimism. I see no facts that make me feel that what you suggest will happen in the next 10 years.

I don't want to be right or pessimistic, I just can't help it given the way Iraq is right now.

Cheers,

Andy

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Fencer128

Originally posted by: Zedtom
Let's look at the best case scenario in Iraq. The economy is humming along, the elected representatives are working in harmony despite the religious faction's differences, the country has the respect of Europe and the US, and best of all- they are self supporting.

Who would reject such a scenario? The Saudis? Iran? Israel?

I challenge all the hard-core cynics to break free from their pessimistic views of the world. Terrorism and unforseen disasters are always going to be with us, but let's think positive.

Oh, by the way, I'm no Bushite. It's going to take a bigger leader than him to make this happen.

Hi,

I admire your optimism - but that's how I see it - optimism. I see no facts that make me feel that what you suggest will happen in the next 10 years.

I don't want to be right or pessimistic, I just can't help it given the way Iraq is right now.

Cheers,

Andy

From what i gather many shared you pessimism in post WWII about japan and germany....

 

[Fencer128]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Fencer128

Originally posted by: Zedtom
Let's look at the best case scenario in Iraq. The economy is humming along, the elected representatives are working in harmony despite the religious faction's differences, the country has the respect of Europe and the US, and best of all- they are self supporting.

Who would reject such a scenario? The Saudis? Iran? Israel?

I challenge all the hard-core cynics to break free from their pessimistic views of the world. Terrorism and unforseen disasters are always going to be with us, but let's think positive.

Oh, by the way, I'm no Bushite. It's going to take a bigger leader than him to make this happen.

Hi,

I admire your optimism - but that's how I see it - optimism. I see no facts that make me feel that what you suggest will happen in the next 10 years.

I don't want to be right or pessimistic, I just can't help it given the way Iraq is right now.

Cheers,

Andy

From what i gather many shared you pessimism in post WWII about japan and germany....

Hi,

Maybe. I wasn't around then. Are they good parallels to Iraq though? I mean the way I see it the most likely outcome in the next 10 years (as put in the OP) is another dictator springing up, a theocracy or a civil war/division - probably a little of all 3 in fact. I've seen nothing really to convince me that these people want a real democracy?

Cheers,

Andy

 

[Gravity]

They might be on the way in 10 years but hardly the scene you paint. Democracy for us has taken decades, even centuries to mold and it's still far from perfect. Remember, we scrapped our system by shedding our blood to detach from a monarchy. Iraq is more of a fuedal tribe system that isn't detaching from anything but a dictator. They have no common purpose, no sense of mission and no sense of unity.

It will take decades to get to where they might be if they all WANTED democracy.

Time will tell.

Sorry, not crapping on your parade, just my .o2.

 

[Kappo]

Hi,

Maybe. I wasn't around then. Are they good parallels to Iraq though? I mean the way I see it the most likely outcome in the next 10 years (as put in the OP) is another dictator springing up, a theocracy or a civil war/division - probably a little of all 3 in fact. I've seen nothing really to convince me that these people want a real democracy?

Cheers,

Andy

You dont see it because the media will refuse that image to be published. Im sure that there are many that think that things should be left alone. Many many people are like that. But once you realize that there IS something else, something better, your opinion usually changes a bit

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Fencer128

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Fencer128

Originally posted by: Zedtom
Let's look at the best case scenario in Iraq. The economy is humming along, the elected representatives are working in harmony despite the religious faction's differences, the country has the respect of Europe and the US, and best of all- they are self supporting.

Who would reject such a scenario? The Saudis? Iran? Israel?

I challenge all the hard-core cynics to break free from their pessimistic views of the world. Terrorism and unforseen disasters are always going to be with us, but let's think positive.

Oh, by the way, I'm no Bushite. It's going to take a bigger leader than him to make this happen.

Hi,

I admire your optimism - but that's how I see it - optimism. I see no facts that make me feel that what you suggest will happen in the next 10 years.

I don't want to be right or pessimistic, I just can't help it given the way Iraq is right now.

Cheers,

Andy

From what i gather many shared you pessimism in post WWII about japan and germany....

Hi,

Maybe. I wasn't around then. Are they good parallels to Iraq though? I mean the way I see it the most likely outcome in the next 10 years (as put in the OP) is another dictator springing up, a theocracy or a civil war/division - probably a little of all 3 in fact. I've seen nothing really to convince me that these people want a real democracy?

Cheers,

Andy

There are some parallels. There was virtually no resistance in japan and some in germany. Both countries had been almost completely destroyed. Many mistakes were made in the reconstruction of both Germany and Japan. Critics complained about the cost and speed of the reconstruction.

 

[Fencer128]

Originally posted by: Kappo

Hi,

Maybe. I wasn't around then. Are they good parallels to Iraq though? I mean the way I see it the most likely outcome in the next 10 years (as put in the OP) is another dictator springing up, a theocracy or a civil war/division - probably a little of all 3 in fact. I've seen nothing really to convince me that these people want a real democracy?

Cheers,

Andy

You dont see it because the media will refuse that image to be published. Im sure that there are many that think that things should be left alone. Many many people are like that. But once you realize that there IS something else, something better, your opinion usually changes a bit

Or, you could say, that even with the bias of the media, the overwhelming amount of information flooding in from Iraq paints the picture I described and that to ignore it is wishful thinking. Now, couple that with the fact that the only reasonably stable countries in that region are run as monarchies with less than perfect human rights/pro-democratic credentials and I see a pattern emerging

Cheers,

Andy

 

[tec699]

In 10 years? Musulim countries have been living under hierarchy rule for thousands of years and you expect the USA to just come into Iraq and lay the foundation for a free society?

Yea, I'll believe it when I see it. Let's get our men out of that god damn country!

:disgust:

 

[Fencer128]

There are some parallels. There was virtually no resistance in japan and some in germany. Both countries had been almost completely destroyed. Many mistakes were made in the reconstruction of both Germany and Japan. Critics complained about the cost and speed of the reconstruction.

But - and this is the most important factor IMHO - would you say that the mindset and attitudes of those people were more or less conducive to forming a stable and peaceful democracy then as Iraq is now? I think not.

Cheers,

Andy

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Fencer128

There are some parallels. There was virtually no resistance in japan and some in germany. Both countries had been almost completely destroyed. Many mistakes were made in the reconstruction of both Germany and Japan. Critics complained about the cost and speed of the reconstruction.

But - and this is the most important factor IMHO - would you say that the mindset and attitudes of those people were more or less conducive to forming a stable and peaceful democracy then as Iraq is now? I think not.

Cheers,

Andy

I think most of the people of Iraq are ready for a stable democratic goverment. However there remains a small portion(5%?) of the population that wants to cause trouble.

Japan was luckly an obediant society and threw down their arms when the emporer told them to.
Germany was pretty much bombed into complete submission.
When the remnants get finished off in the Iraq, things will be going much smoother.

 

[RabidMongoose]

10 years is probably too optimistic.

 

[Fencer128]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Fencer128

There are some parallels. There was virtually no resistance in japan and some in germany. Both countries had been almost completely destroyed. Many mistakes were made in the reconstruction of both Germany and Japan. Critics complained about the cost and speed of the reconstruction.

But - and this is the most important factor IMHO - would you say that the mindset and attitudes of those people were more or less conducive to forming a stable and peaceful democracy then as Iraq is now? I think not.

Cheers,

Andy

I think most of the people of Iraq are ready for a stable democratic goverment. However there remains a small portion(5%?) of the population that wants to cause trouble.

Japan was luckly an obediant society and threw down their arms when the emporer told them to.
Germany was pretty much bombed into complete submission.
When the remnants get finished off in the Iraq, things will be going much smoother.

I hope that you are right and I am wrong - I really do. I don't see the 95% of the population ready for democracy as you do. True, they're not all terrorists (they are the minority) but I don't see the Kurds, Sunnis and Shi'ites living happily together in a democracy either. Under a dictator maybe (like Saddam) or with a the minorities oppressed (like in a ruling theocracy) but not, as I can see so readily in the middle-east, living harmoniously together in a western-style democracy.

Cheers,

Andy

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Fencer128

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Fencer128

There are some parallels. There was virtually no resistance in japan and some in germany. Both countries had been almost completely destroyed. Many mistakes were made in the reconstruction of both Germany and Japan. Critics complained about the cost and speed of the reconstruction.

But - and this is the most important factor IMHO - would you say that the mindset and attitudes of those people were more or less conducive to forming a stable and peaceful democracy then as Iraq is now? I think not.

Cheers,

Andy

I think most of the people of Iraq are ready for a stable democratic goverment. However there remains a small portion(5%?) of the population that wants to cause trouble.

Japan was luckly an obediant society and threw down their arms when the emporer told them to.
Germany was pretty much bombed into complete submission.
When the remnants get finished off in the Iraq, things will be going much smoother.

I hope that you are right and I am wrong - I really do. I don't see the 95% of the population ready for democracy as you do. True, they're not all terrorists (they are the minority) but I don't see the Kurds, Sunnis and Shi'ites living happily together in a democracy either. Under a dictator maybe (like Saddam) or with a the minorities oppressed (like in a ruling theocracy) but not, as I can see so readily in the middle-east, living harmoniously together in a western-style democracy.

Cheers,

Andy

It is going to take time. And it is far to early to be calling the efforts a failure

 

[Fencer128]

I hope that you are right and I am wrong - I really do. I don't see the 95% of the population ready for democracy as you do. True, they're not all terrorists (they are the minority) but I don't see the Kurds, Sunnis and Shi'ites living happily together in a democracy either. Under a dictator maybe (like Saddam) or with a the minorities oppressed (like in a ruling theocracy) but not, as I can see so readily in the middle-east, living harmoniously together in a western-style democracy.

Cheers,

Andy

It is going to take time. And it is far to early to be calling the efforts a failure[/quote]

I never did.

The OP claims "in 10 years time". All my comments stem from that. You said it yourself - and it's a powerful message for me too - post war Japan and Germany, who in my opinion were much riper for peaceful democracy to flourish than Iraq is now, took decades, much more than 10 years to get on their feet. I see no reason why Iraq won't take the same, if not longer considering their religious divisions, mindset and neighbours.

Cheers,

Andy

 

[Zedtom]

I wish that the news media in this country would focus on the daily activities of average working Iraqi's. We have such a distorted view of what really is going on. There are more citizens interested in stability than wallowing in the past.

 

[Fencer128]

Originally posted by: Zedtom
I wish that the news media in this country would focus on the daily activities of average working Iraqi's. We have such a distorted view of what really is going on. There are more citizens interested in stability than wallowing in the past.

That's another view I take with a pinch of salt. Yes, the media manipulate and love negative news - but I also don't buy the arguement that all of the truth is being hidden from me either and that the "soldier tells it how it really is" type stories are the "truth". Since I have no first hand evidence of Iraq right now I can't say with much certainty for now - but I'm guessing that the situation is somewhere between the two extremes. IMHO that still doesn't make it too conducive to Iraq becoming a working democracy in the next 10 years.

Cheers,

Andy

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Fencer128

Originally posted by: Zedtom
I wish that the news media in this country would focus on the daily activities of average working Iraqi's. We have such a distorted view of what really is going on. There are more citizens interested in stability than wallowing in the past.

That's another view I take with a pinch of salt. Yes, the media manipulate and love negative news - but I also don't buy the arguement that all of the truth is being hidden from me either and that the "soldier tells it how it really is" type stories are the "truth". Since I have no first hand evidence of Iraq right now I can't say with much certainty for now - but I'm guessing that the situation is somewhere between the two extremes. IMHO that still doesn't make it too conducive to Iraq becoming a working democracy in the next 10 years.

Cheers,

Andy

I disagree, the media does this, even if it is unintentional. Maybe you have heard the phrase, "if it bleeds, it leads". The stuff that is going to get viewership/readership is going to get priority. Bad news always gets the headlines. However the media does need to report the progress that is being made in iraq, and much progress is being made in reconstruction. This however does not mean the media needs to stop covering the bad stuff.

 

[Fencer128]

That's another view I take with a pinch of salt. Yes, the media manipulate and love negative news - but I also don't buy the arguement that all of the truth is being hidden from me either and that the "soldier tells it how it really is" type stories are the "truth". Since I have no first hand evidence of Iraq right now I can't say with much certainty for now - but I'm guessing that the situation is somewhere between the two extremes. IMHO that still doesn't make it too conducive to Iraq becoming a working democracy in the next 10 years.

Cheers,

Andy

I disagree, the media does this, even if it is unintentional. Maybe you have heard the phrase, "if it bleeds, it leads". The stuff that is going to get viewership/readership is going to get priority. Bad news always gets the headlines. However the media does need to report the progress that is being made in iraq, and much progress is being made in reconstruction. This however does not mean the media needs to stop covering the bad stuff.[/quote]

Well, that's roughly what I said.

My concern is "all the progress" being made. How do we know it's so huge again in comparisson with all the bad things? (It's difficult trying to find a way of measuring this admittedly!) As I said before. I realise the media manipulate and love negative news - but equally I don't buy the "everything is pretty much ok except for the terrorist" viewpoint either. I think it's somewhere in the middle. The general population might not be murderers but I'm not sure that their religious divides and - from what I can tell from other countries in the region - feudalistic mindsets, are conducive to democracy in the next 10 years.

Cheers,

Andy

 

[Ozoned]

Originally posted by: Zedtom
I wish that the news media in this country would focus on the daily activities of average working Iraqi's. We have such a distorted view of what really is going on. There are more citizens interested in stability than wallowing in the past.

Wouldn't it be grand to actually have a view of what is taking place in Iraq instead of just the selective clips.

I mean, everyday life. Can't even begin to imagine the action behind the stories.

It would also be nice to have a recent period in history that my children and grandchildren could look back on and model their direction in life on.. A democracy in the middle east would indeed be that.

Iraq, as a democracy, would also be a fitting memorial to all those that shed blood to those ends.

All it takes is a taste or a glimpse of freedom to light the fire , as our own history proves..

 

[ElFenix]

it's impossible to cover all the goings on in iraq in a 6 minute news brief.

 

[Runner20]

Originally posted by: Zedtom


Who would reject such a scenario? The Saudis? Iran? Israel?.

The enemies of America will reject that scenario, and Israel is not one of them. I'm sure Israel would want Iraq to turn into a peaceful democracy as well. Surely Iran and Saudi Arabia want Iraq to go into chaos and are doing their best right now. Where are all these terrorists coming from?? Who is giving them arms?? Who is supporting them?? The answer is Iran, and also some from Syria and Saudi Arabia.

America's enemies are Iran and Saudi Arabia.

I love Bush but he pisses me off when he says that Saudi Arabia is a ally.

 

[boran]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Fencer128

There are some parallels. There was virtually no resistance in japan and some in germany. Both countries had been almost completely destroyed. Many mistakes were made in the reconstruction of both Germany and Japan. Critics complained about the cost and speed of the reconstruction.

But - and this is the most important factor IMHO - would you say that the mindset and attitudes of those people were more or less conducive to forming a stable and peaceful democracy then as Iraq is now? I think not.

Cheers,

Andy

I think most of the people of Iraq are ready for a stable democratic goverment. However there remains a small portion(5%?) of the population that wants to cause trouble.

Japan was luckly an obediant society and threw down their arms when the emporer told them to.
Germany was pretty much bombed into complete submission.
When the remnants get finished off in the Iraq, things will be going much smoother.

the problem is that those 5 % has guns, just look at fallujah (spelling ? :S) the US forces left there and now it's a place run according to the sharia (islamitic law based upon the koran) imho that's what's going to happen to the rest of iraq when the US forces leave.

 

[Stunt]

There's 3 major ethnicities in the country. They will most likely vote along racial lines...will probably cause conflict eventually.
There's so many extremists that make a lot of noise...look at isreal and palestine...that's only two races...
But who knows...i'd like to see them create a democracy but modeled by the US???....yuck!...so corrupt...they can do better than that...come on now...give them that much credit haha, jk

 

[Klixxer]

Originally posted by: boran

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Fencer128

There are some parallels. There was virtually no resistance in japan and some in germany. Both countries had been almost completely destroyed. Many mistakes were made in the reconstruction of both Germany and Japan. Critics complained about the cost and speed of the reconstruction.

But - and this is the most important factor IMHO - would you say that the mindset and attitudes of those people were more or less conducive to forming a stable and peaceful democracy then as Iraq is now? I think not.

Cheers,

Andy

I think most of the people of Iraq are ready for a stable democratic goverment. However there remains a small portion(5%?) of the population that wants to cause trouble.

Japan was luckly an obediant society and threw down their arms when the emporer told them to.
Germany was pretty much bombed into complete submission.
When the remnants get finished off in the Iraq, things will be going much smoother.

the problem is that those 5 % has guns, just look at fallujah (spelling ? :S) the US forces left there and now it's a place run according to the sharia (islamitic law based upon the koran) imho that's what's going to happen to the rest of iraq when the US forces leave.

I am of the same opinion, as it is Sharia law is the law among the Iraqis, i don't think it is even thinkable to have a government that is not completely Islamic and have the people of Iraq accept it, i don't think it's possible for the different groups to live together without force either, take a look at former Yugoslavia as an example of it when they were no longer forced to stay together they fought eachother and split up the land.

I don't think the parallels to WWII Germany works either as pre WWII Germany was pretty much like pre WWII USA, a democracy with about the same culture and religion.