Iranian Revolution in 2022/2026?

[pauldun170]

When the government collapsed, the Israeli bombing campaign begins to wipe out all military hardware.
Groups will be stood up to create chaos.
The Israel and The US will then begin wiping out and sort of Iranian group or individual seen as not willing to be controlled.
That will include people/Groups that Iranians want to lead.

Good luck

 

[RnR_au]

Russia and Iran in 2026?

 

[KMFJD]

donnie deals just slapped a 25% tarriff on anyone doing business with Iran

 

[Oric]

Yeah, we are directly connected with Iranian Gas pipelines. As if we had a choice. Welcome 25% tariffs.

 

[KMFJD]

i truly despise this man but even a broken clock etc...

https://twitter.com/x/status/2010828385149219235

 

[Jaskalas]

i truly despise this man but even a broken clock etc...

Israel claimed 12,000 massacred by Iran.
As experts in the field, they...

 

[KMFJD]

Israel claimed 12,000 massacred by Iran.
As experts in the field, they...

yeah i saw that...

https://twitter.com/x/status/2011126754157740539

 

[DZero]

So, Iran just entered on civil war? because that ammount of deaths won't be allowed in the bare minimun. And they keep killing people

 

[RnR_au]

So, Iran just entered on civil war? because that ammount of deaths won't be allowed in the bare minimun. And they keep killing people

They just finished one. From the article mentioned below;

In the last two weeks, the regime's forces obeyed orders to shoot their fellow citizens in the streets.

If the army doesn't stand with the people, the people don't have a chance. The Kurdish actions are not helping matters much, although they targeted IRGC, so thats a good thing.

If Trump's CIA can make a deal with some army bigwigs and then target the IRGC with missiles in a preemptive strike that might work.

But anyways... I think we'll have to wait another couple of years for the next flare up. If the regime is smart, they might even have done a little army purge by then as well, so the chance of regime chance is small unfortunately.

This is a good read - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cedwgn4pqv4o - and it just highlights that the army is needed. You'll never convert the IRGC, so it will be a civil war when large parts of the army finally flips.

edit: the other source of instability and therefore a chance of getting a sane administration in Iran, is when the currently religious leadership dies and there is a succession conflict. Given the corruption in upper tiers of the regime and IRGC, this is not unlikely since you would have factions and they may not see eye to eye. If IRGC begins to fight itself... that would be a good day to be celebrated with many beers.

 

[RnR_au]

From ABC's Foreign Correspondent program here in Australia in 2023;

After Mahsa's death in police custody led to protests on the streets of Iran, young dissidents who continue to defy the country’s repressive regime, have participated in secretly recorded exclusive interviews with Foreign Correspondent.

The protest movement was sparked by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini who died in custody after being arrested by the morality police for wearing her hijab too loosely.

Inspired and led by women, who took off their hijabs in solidarity with Mahsa, the protests gripped the nation for months. The regime’s response was swift and brutal: protestors were beaten, imprisoned and executed. The crowds dissipated but the mood for change did not.

For months Foreign Correspondent has been communicating via encrypted messaging apps with young Iranians who are still involved with Iran’s protest movement. Despite the risks they agreed to be interviewed to tell their personal stories, share their acts of defiance and reflect on the huge price they have paid in their fight for freedom. Each one of them wants the world to know what is happening inside Iran. In the words of one young protestor:

"This is my direct message to friends within Iran and outside of Iran who think these protests have ended. Friends, it has just started . . . "

 

[DZero]

They just finished one. From the article mentioned below;


If the army doesn't stand with the people, the people don't have a chance. The Kurdish actions are not helping matters much, although they targeted IRGC, so thats a good thing.

If Trump's CIA can make a deal with some army bigwigs and then target the IRGC with missiles in a preemptive strike that might work.

But anyways... I think we'll have to wait another couple of years for the next flare up. If the regime is smart, they might even have done a little army purge by then as well, so the chance of regime chance is small unfortunately.

This is a good read - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cedwgn4pqv4o - and it just highlights that the army is needed. You'll never convert the IRGC, so it will be a civil war when large parts of the army finally flips.

edit: the other source of instability and therefore a chance of getting a sane administration in Iran, is when the currently religious leadership dies and there is a succession conflict. Given the corruption in upper tiers of the regime and IRGC, this is not unlikely since you would have factions and they may not see eye to eye. If IRGC begins to fight itself... that would be a good day to be celebrated with many beers.

That's the issue. Iran would try to divert the attention now, even with the repression. Now is full North Korea.
And now to change the attention? attacking Israel even if they know that they are screwed up.

 

[MrSquished]

I hope they overthrow their evil government.

Also, to any protestors wanting the shah/shah family back, that's still a very stupid thing to say or wish for.

Both are true.

 

[thilanliyan]

I hope they overthrow their evil government.

Also, to any protestors wanting the shah/shah family back, that's still a very stupid thing to say or wish for.

Both are true.

I don't think the general consensus is that they want to be ruled by the Shah, but they want him as the mid-point in a transition to a more democratic gov't. And I think the Shah's son has said the same.

 

[KMFJD]

strange things happening for sure


nah

https://twitter.com/x/status/2011478230213992547

The New York Times, citing military officials: The United States has three missile-launching destroyers in the region, including the destroyer Roosevelt, which entered the Red Sea a few days ago.It appears the attack will be carried out with Tomahawk missiles.

 

[MrSquished]

I don't think the general consensus is that they want to be ruled by the Shah, but they want him as the mid-point in a transition to a more democratic gov't. And I think the Shah's son has said the same.

Unless the Shaw's son has renounced his father for the corrupt Western puppet he was, then the shah should be nowhere near anything to do with a change of power in Iran

 

[KMFJD]

Unless the Shaw's son has renounced his father for the corrupt Western puppet he was, then the shah should be nowhere near anything to do with a change of power in Iran

what do you think....

 

[thilanliyan]

Unless the Shaw's son has renounced his father for the corrupt Western puppet he was, then the shah should be nowhere near anything to do with a change of power in Iran

I think you underestimate the people's desire for something other than what they have now. If that path leads through the Shah's son to something better (at least in their eyes), I think they are willing to take that risk. I don't think most people (including me) understand what the situation was there for ordinary people. My opinion is based on conversations with Iranians here in Toronto. They almost universally hate the current regime and are okay with the Shah's son. They also say that the way that the original Shah has been portrayed in western media is not entirely correct.

 

[MrSquished]

I think you underestimate the people's desire for something other than what they have now. If that path leads through the Shah's son to something better (at least in their eyes), I think they are willing to take that risk. I don't think most people (including me) understand what the situation was there for ordinary people. My opinion is based on conversations with Iranians here in Toronto. They almost universally hate the current regime and are okay with the Shah's son. They also say that the way that the original Shah has been portrayed in western media is not entirely correct.

I'm not underestimating a damn thing. I know how they are rationalizing it. It's just stupid.

I'm calling stupid stupid. It's that simple.

 

[thilanliyan]

I'm not underestimating a damn thing. I know how they are rationalizing it. It's just stupid.

I'm calling stupid stupid. It's that simple.

Yes, I think you ARE underestimating their situation and their desperation, but that's my opinion.

What's that saying about "Perfect is the enemy of good". The Shah's son is by no means the perfect leader for this movement, but he doesn't have to be if it leads to regime change there.

 

[Jaskalas]

I do not question the Iranian people's desire for change.
I question their ability to win the bloodshed and overcome the oppressors.

'Rivers of blood' in Iran...

 

[MrSquished]

Yes, I think you ARE underestimating their situation and their desperation, but that's my opinion.

What's that saying about "Perfect is the enemy of good". The Shah's son is by no means the perfect leader for this movement, but he doesn't have to be if it leads to regime change there.

who said I said it had to be perfect? that's you projecting and being misleading.

saying endorsing a fucking shitty corrupt despotic family is stupid is not saying the choice has to be perfect, but definitely not that fucking bad. it's part of their recent history, they should know better or at least do the research.

There is literally no way around it - wanting the Shah back is stupid as fuck.

 

[thilanliyan]

who said I said it had to be perfect? that's you projecting and being misleading.

saying endorsing a fucking shitty corrupt despotic family is stupid is not saying the choice has to be perfect, but definitely not that fucking bad. it's part of their recent history, they should know better or at least do the research.

There is literally no way around it - wanting the Shah back is stupid as fuck.

I never said they want the Shah back as defacto ruler...just as a stepping stone. And he has said as much as I mentioned in my earlier post.

Who's the better option then if you think the Shah's son is such a terrible option?
More importantly, has there been ANYONE else who has stepped forward to provide a guiding force for the protests?

 

[MrSquished]

I never said they want the Shah back as defacto ruler...just as a stepping stone. And he has said as much as I mentioned in my earlier post.

Who's the better option then if you think the Shah's son is such a terrible option?
More importantly, has there been ANYONE else who has stepped forward to provide a guiding force for the protests?

Right and I'm saying you don't want him near any type of transfer of power situation. Solid chance a despotic family member will make sure they take over, or corrupt the process in some way. This really shouldn't be hard to understand.

 

[thilanliyan]

Right and I'm saying you don't want him near any type of transfer of power situation. Solid chance a despotic family member will make sure they take over, or corrupt the process in some way. This really shouldn't be hard to understand.

I agree with you that he wouldn't be my first pick to lead the changes, but again who's the better option? Who has stepped forward?

And I disagree there's a solid chance that a despotic family member would try to take over...they've seen people are willing to die to get rid of this regime...they would do the same again if they get more of the same from whatever comes next. Maybe a very small chance, but not a solid chance imo. And according to the Iranians I've spoken to (and clearly from the protests urged on by the Shah's son), they're willing to take that chance.

Again, people who don't live there or haven't lived there (including me) likely will never fully understand their situation and what would drive them to get behind the former Shah's son for transition.

 

[MrSquished]

I agree with you that he wouldn't be my first pick to lead the changes, but again who's the better option? Who has stepped forward?

And I disagree there's a solid chance that a despotic family member would try to take over...they've seen people are willing to die to get rid of this regime...they would do the same again if they get more of the same from whatever comes next. Maybe a very small chance, but not a solid chance imo. And according to the Iranians I've spoken to (and clearly from the protests urged on by the Shah's son), they're willing to take that chance.

Again, people who don't live there or haven't lived there (including me) likely will never fully understand their situation and what would drive them to get behind the former Shah's son for transition.

umm all they have to do is just overthrow the government and demand democratic open and free elections. they don't need to rally around a shitstain family that has already abused the fuck out of their country.

I appreciate that you don't think despots won't act like despots, but I strongly disagree with that type of naivete, you are just asking for Iran to jump out of the frying pan, but straight into the fire.