Iranian Revolution in 2022/2026?

[pauldun170]

When the government collapsed, the Israeli bombing campaign begins to wipe out all military hardware.
Groups will be stood up to create chaos.
The Israel and The US will then begin wiping out and sort of Iranian group or individual seen as not willing to be controlled.
That will include people/Groups that Iranians want to lead.

Good luck

 

[RnR_au]

Russia and Iran in 2026?

 

[KMFJD]

donnie deals just slapped a 25% tarriff on anyone doing business with Iran

 

[Oric]

Yeah, we are directly connected with Iranian Gas pipelines. As if we had a choice. Welcome 25% tariffs.

 

[KMFJD]

i truly despise this man but even a broken clock etc...

https://twitter.com/x/status/2010828385149219235

 

[Jaskalas]

i truly despise this man but even a broken clock etc...

Israel claimed 12,000 massacred by Iran.
As experts in the field, they...

 

[KMFJD]

Israel claimed 12,000 massacred by Iran.
As experts in the field, they...

yeah i saw that...

https://twitter.com/x/status/2011126754157740539

 

[DZero]

So, Iran just entered on civil war? because that ammount of deaths won't be allowed in the bare minimun. And they keep killing people

 

[RnR_au]

So, Iran just entered on civil war? because that ammount of deaths won't be allowed in the bare minimun. And they keep killing people

They just finished one. From the article mentioned below;

In the last two weeks, the regime's forces obeyed orders to shoot their fellow citizens in the streets.

If the army doesn't stand with the people, the people don't have a chance. The Kurdish actions are not helping matters much, although they targeted IRGC, so thats a good thing.

If Trump's CIA can make a deal with some army bigwigs and then target the IRGC with missiles in a preemptive strike that might work.

But anyways... I think we'll have to wait another couple of years for the next flare up. If the regime is smart, they might even have done a little army purge by then as well, so the chance of regime chance is small unfortunately.

This is a good read - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cedwgn4pqv4o - and it just highlights that the army is needed. You'll never convert the IRGC, so it will be a civil war when large parts of the army finally flips.

edit: the other source of instability and therefore a chance of getting a sane administration in Iran, is when the currently religious leadership dies and there is a succession conflict. Given the corruption in upper tiers of the regime and IRGC, this is not unlikely since you would have factions and they may not see eye to eye. If IRGC begins to fight itself... that would be a good day to be celebrated with many beers.

 

[RnR_au]

From ABC's Foreign Correspondent program here in Australia in 2023;

After Mahsa's death in police custody led to protests on the streets of Iran, young dissidents who continue to defy the country’s repressive regime, have participated in secretly recorded exclusive interviews with Foreign Correspondent.

The protest movement was sparked by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini who died in custody after being arrested by the morality police for wearing her hijab too loosely.

Inspired and led by women, who took off their hijabs in solidarity with Mahsa, the protests gripped the nation for months. The regime’s response was swift and brutal: protestors were beaten, imprisoned and executed. The crowds dissipated but the mood for change did not.

For months Foreign Correspondent has been communicating via encrypted messaging apps with young Iranians who are still involved with Iran’s protest movement. Despite the risks they agreed to be interviewed to tell their personal stories, share their acts of defiance and reflect on the huge price they have paid in their fight for freedom. Each one of them wants the world to know what is happening inside Iran. In the words of one young protestor:

"This is my direct message to friends within Iran and outside of Iran who think these protests have ended. Friends, it has just started . . . "

 

[DZero]

They just finished one. From the article mentioned below;


If the army doesn't stand with the people, the people don't have a chance. The Kurdish actions are not helping matters much, although they targeted IRGC, so thats a good thing.

If Trump's CIA can make a deal with some army bigwigs and then target the IRGC with missiles in a preemptive strike that might work.

But anyways... I think we'll have to wait another couple of years for the next flare up. If the regime is smart, they might even have done a little army purge by then as well, so the chance of regime chance is small unfortunately.

This is a good read - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cedwgn4pqv4o - and it just highlights that the army is needed. You'll never convert the IRGC, so it will be a civil war when large parts of the army finally flips.

edit: the other source of instability and therefore a chance of getting a sane administration in Iran, is when the currently religious leadership dies and there is a succession conflict. Given the corruption in upper tiers of the regime and IRGC, this is not unlikely since you would have factions and they may not see eye to eye. If IRGC begins to fight itself... that would be a good day to be celebrated with many beers.

That's the issue. Iran would try to divert the attention now, even with the repression. Now is full North Korea.
And now to change the attention? attacking Israel even if they know that they are screwed up.

 

[MrSquished]

I hope they overthrow their evil government.

Also, to any protestors wanting the shah/shah family back, that's still a very stupid thing to say or wish for.

Both are true.

 

[thilanliyan]

I hope they overthrow their evil government.

Also, to any protestors wanting the shah/shah family back, that's still a very stupid thing to say or wish for.

Both are true.

I don't think the general consensus is that they want to be ruled by the Shah, but they want him as the mid-point in a transition to a more democratic gov't. And I think the Shah's son has said the same.