Question Intel's future after Pat Gelsinger

[DrMrLordX]

That's great, if you leave everything to TSMC, all problems will be solved

Wafer prices are going to be awful if they're the only ones left at the top.

 

[511]

Wafer prices are going to be awful if they're the only ones left at the top.

they already are lol the C variants that were supposed to cost optimized version are now more expensive by double digit lol there goes your cost savings

 

[Doug S]

If Intel actually goes through a proper bankruptcy and reorganization, they'll be gutted and fall permanently out of leading edge IC fabrication (which may happen anyway). Say hello to the next Lucent/Alcatel, or whatever comparison you wish to make. That amounts to its own crisis for Feds, depending on your point-of-view. Hence the possibility of a bailout despite the rest of the economy not being in shambles.

If they went through an uncontrolled bankruptcy, sure that might happen. But the government could step in not to own a piece but to insure that whoever took them over is going to continue to operate leading edge fabs. That's been done in other cases where the bankrupt organization is e.g. an important defense contractor or the like, so it is hardly a novel idea.

There's a lot of inherent moral hazard in bailing out shareholders of a failed corporation (and I say that as someone who owns roughly $100K in Intel shares so it would be in my self interest to be "bailed out" over losing $100K) but bailing out the corporation itself is a different story, if that is to keep them operating in a similar manner if it is something critical to the US economy.

In GM's case the "critical" part to the US economy was how huge they are when you consider all the other businesses that would be affected and how many people would become unemployed, especially during a time when the unemployment rate was already spiking. In Intel's case the critical part isn't that - the US economy as a whole would hardly notice if Intel went bankrupt since overall unemployment is low and has been low for over a decade aside from the covid "blip". But it isn't in our national security interest to not have any American based / American managed leading edge foundries, just like it wouldn't be in our national security interest to not have any American based / managed large aircraft manufacturers.

 

[jpiniero]

If Intel actually goes through a proper bankruptcy and reorganization, they'll be gutted and fall permanently out of leading edge IC fabrication (which may happen anyway). Say hello to the next Lucent/Alcatel, or whatever comparison you wish to make. That amounts to its own crisis for Feds, depending on your point-of-view. Hence the possibility of a bailout despite the rest of the economy not being in shambles.

If Intel actually goes bankrupt, it loses the x86 license. There'd be no point in continuing operations then.

That's one of the biggest reasons why they need to dump the fabs yesterday. There's a future for Intel post-Fab, but not if Tan runs the company into the ground trying to extend the Foundry a couple extra years.