Question Intel Q3 Results

[jpiniero]

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_2b116bffa4ca8890f09df4510f3c972f/intel/db/887/8873/earnings_release/Q3+22_EarningsRelease.pdf

They actually technically made a profit (albeit an small operating loss) but CCG revenue was down 17% and Datecenter was down 27%.

Says $3B in "Cost Reductions" in 2023.

 

[IntelUser2000]

Laptops are a major part of Intel's client segment and they are not going to do well given by both company's roadmaps.

Raptorlake has a chance to do noticeably better than Alderlake. Alderlake has some teething issues(likely related to early hybrid implementation), resulting in much higher idle and average power than in preceding generations. Just "fixing" that in line with Tigerlake would close a big portion of the gap.

"Refreshes" are signficant in it's own that it fills in holes left by the big change Tocks like Alderlake is.

Also, Intel 7 Ultra along with adding more E cores and other targetted optimizations allowed it to be reasonably competitive with Zen 4 in desktop, despite the latter moving to a newer process.

 

[Markfw]

Here is what I see... Desktop is at BEST a wash with AMD in performance, but uses a lot more power. This leads to mobile, again power problems, which in mobile are even more important. Server is a disaster as we all know, and not likely to change anytime soon. HEDT is not even on the table. GPU is not even relevant right now for Intel.

So I see nothing bright in their future yet.

 

[poke01]

Can I say this is or will I get booed at?

Intel is dying. No, I really mean it. If their future nodes don't deliver on time they are dead*.

First networks, what really matters in Networking is modems.
Qualcomm is king there, already wifi 7 and 5G modems.
x86 wise AMD is destroying Intel in Datacentre and will do it in laptops next year.

GPUs are pathetic from Intel. I don't care if it's Intel's first time. The market does not care.

Desktop is only the only place where Intel actually competitive now but DIY and OEM desktop has barely any profit. Companies are moving to mobile and laptops. Where AMD, ARM and Apple excel at.

I really think Intel is doomed unless they deliver and execute with NO delays anymore. I want Intel to be great but so far money talks and Intel is failing.

AMD has great Datacentre chips, great desktops chips, great laptops chips and AMD chips are used a LOT in consoles, handhelds and what’s Intel making money in these days is not enough for Intel to survive

This decade a LOT of things will change. Let’s see.

 

[Kocicak]

Intel is dying. No, I really mean it. If their future nodes don't deliver on time they are dead*.

AMD also survived slow period of not having very competitive products. Intel could survive just making chips for other companies and having no products on their own at all.

 

[moinmoin]

The "Intel doomed" playbook is playing out as expected since 2018, no major surprises since, but big promises on execution especially for new nodes. SPR still being repeatedly delayed is a sticky thorn there. I guess aligning it with EMR is a way of stating that SPR is supposed to be the last one failing execution. We will see how that goes.

"Refreshes" are signficant in it's own that it fills in holes left by the big change Tocks like Alderlake is.

So you think these refreshes are Intel's Zen+ moment (as in aside being on a slightly denser node the big difference is microcode/firmware)?

 

[jpiniero]

From Intel's 10-Q:

Notebook revenue was $4.4 billion, down $1.5 billion from Q3 2021. Notebook unit sales decreased 28% driven by lower demand in the consumer and education market segments. Notebook ASPs increased 3% due to an increased mix of commercial products and lower mix of consumer and education products.

Desktop revenue was $3.2 billion, up $103 million from Q3 2021. Desktop unit sales increased 2% partially due to increased demand for Enthusiast and gaming products, while ASPs remained flat.

(Server) Revenue was $4.2 billion, down $1.6 billion from Q3 2021, driven by a decrease in Server revenue. Server volume decreased 29%, led by enterprise customers, and due to customers tempering purchases to reduce existing inventories in a softening datacenter market. The higher mix of revenue from hyperscale customers within a competitive environment, drove a 7% decrease in Server ASPs. The decrease in Server revenue was partially offset by an increase in other DCAI revenue in Q3 2022 due to growth in our FPGA business.

 

[moinmoin]

No more digestion cycle?

 

[dangerman1337]

Only interesting news



Does that mean we will get more fine tuned dates of when MTL will release.

Seems vague, would be weird if MTL-P (Laptop) releases before MTL-S since MTL-P would end up releasing soon after Raptor Lake-P, though a MTL-S in the Summer or any time soon as possible against Zen 4 V-Cache (which let's be honest even the 13900KS will be left behind in scenarios that love loads of cache).

 

[jpiniero]

Seems vague, would be weird if MTL-P (Laptop) releases before MTL-S since MTL-P would end up releasing soon after Raptor Lake-P, though a MTL-S in the Summer or any time soon as possible against Zen 4 V-Cache (which let's be honest even the 13900KS will be left behind in scenarios that love loads of cache).

Isn't it like a year-18 months from tapeout?

 

[dangerman1337]

Isn't it like a year-18 months from tapeout?

Depends on the definition of tape in and tape out. Kinda all over the place.

 

[UsandThem]

AMD also survived slow period of not having very competitive products.

I see what you are doing. Maybe just stick to figuring out on whether you should keep to keep the 13600k or 13700k instead.......you know with the fancy charts and stuff.

You must be talking about pre-Ryzen days, because if you're not talking about 2017 or earlier, "not having very competitive products" doesn't make any sense....at all.

Intel could survive just making chips for other companies and having no products on their own at all.

Leave the high margin products like their CPUs, and go with low margin stuff like network adapters? That checks out.

I have a sneaking suspicion that if Intel only made chips for other companies, the investors, Intel's board of directors, and the various venture capitalists in charge of investment groups would be just a TEENY bit upset. At the end of that day, Intel would be replacing their entire upper management team and/or be looking at a hostile takeover of their company by an investment group (probably led by Carl Icahn).

 

[DooKey]

AMD also survived slow period of not having very competitive products. Intel could survive just making chips for other companies and having no products on their own at all.

No one will ever forget Bulldozer. Took AMD a long time, but they finally dug out. No reason to think Intel can't do the same.

 

[IntelUser2000]

They pretty much said they can't do much about Sapphire Rapids, I guess aside from making it worse.

So you think these refreshes are Intel's Zen+ moment (as in aside being on a slightly denser node the big difference is microcode/firmware)?

I'm pretty sure you are referring to Zen+ when talking about density. The 7 Ultra process if anything is probably less dense. But it's higher performance.

Ticks/Refreshes always felt like addressing "It's good, but something missing" with Tocks. It's not just technical, it's about filling in competitive gaps as well.

I think they missed their power usage targets with Alderlake mobile. If they do nothing else but just address that, it'll be significant. They probably needed more time, but because delays affect future products they decided to release it as is and address it later.

 

[UsandThem]

No one will ever forget Bulldozer. Took AMD a long time, but they finally dug out. No reason to think Intel can't do the same.

I also remember Lucky Goldstar (before they went LG) and Samsung being junk brands coming out Korea compared to JVC, Sony, Panasonic, Phillips, RCA).

However, whenever I see a deal or discussion about Samsung LCDs, I don't say "Samsung was junk and they'll always be junk. Now get off of my lawn".

Either currently being ahead of, equal to, or slightly behind, nobody (from either camp)can be taken seriously by claiming that both Intel and AMD don't both have "competitive" products. That's just ridiculous.

 

[A///]

I know zen 4 was locked in many years ago but I think amd was blindsided by just how competent raptor is. I wouldn't say amd became complacent when designing zen 4 but outside of niche usecase i can't recommend z4 to anyone or rpl for that matter. Am4 or alder is the better buy imo. Cheap plentiful and mature but sometimes buggy, like my hoa.

I think both companies will post dismal quarters over the next two simply because of the older product lines being better in this time of much needed cost cutting among individuals and households. Intel's recent gains in consumer lends to them being able to supply more than amd at a time when systems are in mass purchase by companies. They will continue to lose market share in data center. Laptop or mobile is a blind reach because of what mobile raptor will be like compared to AMD's powerful upcoming offerings. Buy low as you can on either.

Lucky Goldstar (before they went LG)

Must you always make me feel old?

 

[UsandThem]

Must you always make me feel old?

Lol, I remember seeing them when my mom would shop at Big Lots lol when I was a young kid.

That name always stood out among all the other cheap electronic brands with weird names.

 

[A///]

Lol, I remember seeing them when my mom would shop at Big Lots lol when I was a young kid.

That name always stood out among all the other cheap electronic brands with weird names.

As a kid I hated big lots for reasons I have trouble remembering. These days they're like any other store. Sometimes they'll have snack foods you won't get in your region. I've seen canadian chips you won't ever see. I haven't visited one in years at this point. The last time I did I bought a shoe rack.

 

[moinmoin]

I honestly have to laugh at people saying AMD survived Bulldozer so Intel will as well. It wasn't only Bulldozer, AMD stopped doing a lot of business and slimmed down a lot to survive and had to rebuild that from scratch over a decade essentially. If Intel were to go through the same we won't look at just 20% layoffs but a complete new kind of Intel. All things considered Intel is still faring pretty well (in that it essentially continues with business as usual) but hasn't seen the worst of it either so it better be prepared.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

It appears increasingly likely, that consumer dGPU will get axed after all. It is unlikely to turn a profit for at least a few more years, and it doesn't read like products losing money are going to be getting propped up.

"Gelsinger said Intel plans to reduce costs by $3 billion annually starting next year, and that will grow to between $8 billion and $10 billion annually by 2025. "

"The chipmaker is looking to save money in other ways. This includes "portfolio cuts, right-sizing our support organizations, more stringent cost controls in all aspects of our spending, and improved sales and marketing efficiency"

https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/28/intel_layoffs_results/

 

[poke01]

I honestly have to laugh at people saying AMD survived Bulldozer so Intel will as well. It wasn't only Bulldozer, AMD stopped doing a lot of business and slimmed down a lot to survive and had to rebuild that from scratch over a decade essentially. If Intel were to go through the same we won't look at just 20% layoffs but a complete new kind of Intel. All things considered Intel is still faring pretty well (in that it essentially continues with business as usual) but hasn't seen the worst of it either so it better be prepared.

AMD had contracts with MS and Sony and Apple during the bulldozer era/early Zen.
Intel lost the Apple contract, meaning 10% was wiped.

Right now Intel has Microsoft, Windows OEM like Dell, HP and so on. Intel is not all present in consoles. It's datacentre chips are still Ice Lake but barely any companies use those.

Intel is draining. Yes it is in a much better position than AMD in the bulldozer era but really what can prove Intel is back in leadership is no more delays in nodes and creating a CPU/SoC that is truly efficient and not just throwing e-core spam and pretending it's more efficient. Of course raptor lake is more efficient than Alder Lake it has more e-cores.

 

[TheELF]

It appears increasingly likely, that consumer dGPU will get axed after all. It is unlikely to turn a profit for at least a few more years, and it doesn't read like products losing money are going to be getting propped up.

A product only loses money after the time the forecast...forecasted has passed.
We have no idea of how the plans look, but I'm pretty sure that no company makes the huge effort of releasing a product and axes it right after.
Business plans usually have a timeframe of how long it will take to start making money and how much money that should be.

TL;DR
Intel needs to keep building on the dgpu because they need the GPUs for server and datacenters, it doesn't even matter to them how much money they lose on dGPU. (As in they portioned out a budget for dGPU and it doesn't matter if they lose all of that)

Leave the high margin products like their CPUs, and go with low margin stuff like network adapters? That checks out.

Obviously they are not going to drop CPUs, but in theory even if they did, yes if you can sell billions of network adapters or other low margin stuff you can still make huge amounts of money.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

@TheELF

Yeah man. There are certainly uses for the graphics they have developed. Consumer/gaming dGPUs is probably not going to be one of them much longer. He announced up to 13 billion in spending cuts in only 24 months. Gaming dGPUs aren't going to be profitable any time soon. Bean counters axe is coming for it.

 

[Thunder 57]

It appears increasingly likely, that consumer dGPU will get axed after all. It is unlikely to turn a profit for at least a few more years, and it doesn't read like products losing money are going to be getting propped up.

"Gelsinger said Intel plans to reduce costs by $3 billion annually starting next year, and that will grow to between $8 billion and $10 billion annually by 2025. "

"The chipmaker is looking to save money in other ways. This includes "portfolio cuts, right-sizing our support organizations, more stringent cost controls in all aspects of our spending, and improved sales and marketing efficiency"

https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/28/intel_layoffs_results/

"Right-sizing". What a BS word for downsizing/layoffs.

 

[DAPUNISHER]

"Right-sizing". What a BS word for downsizing/layoffs.

Corpo speak is always horrible when translated.

"improved sales and marketing efficiency"

That means laying off at least 20% of the team, but expecting them to increase sales anyways. Marketing I wonder about. Does that mean they won't be sponsoring everyone at LMG with 5K builds? Or that the smaller tech tuber I watch, that Intel has started using as an influencer, will not have a handler anymore? If they are still advertising on TV that is a waste of money, only old people watch that. Everyone has ad blockers so web ads are increasingly silly too. The minions patrolling reddit, forums, and Youtube get less respect than Rodney Dangerfield. I think they actually hurt sales at this point.

The MediaTek deal they made is interesting. Pat keeps talking about forming all these new partnerships. Perfect time to cut bait on gaming dGPU and team up on developing graphics for where it makes more sense?

 

[Thunder 57]

Corpo speak is always horrible when translated.

"improved sales and marketing efficiency"

That means laying off at least 20% of the team, but expecting them to increase sales anyways. Marketing I wonder about. Does that mean they won't be sponsoring everyone at LMG with 5K builds? Or that the smaller tech tuber I watch, that Intel has started using as an influencer, will not have a handler anymore? If they are still advertising on TV that is a waste of money, only old people watch that. Everyone has ad blockers so web ads are increasingly silly too. The minions patrolling reddit, forums, and Youtube get less respect than Rodney Dangerfield. I think they actually hurt sales at this point.

The MediaTek deal they made is interesting. Pat keeps talking about forming all these new partnerships. Perfect time to cut bait on gaming dGPU and team up on developing graphics for where it makes more sense?

Perhaps you didn't see, but in another thread I referenced Weird Al's "Mission Statement". An old friend of mine has that as his ringtone for one of his clients. Wonder if they ever called him when he was onsite.