Question Intel Q3: Ouch

[jpiniero]

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_c675d259e2193ee11667e182e2fab5ca/intel/news/2020-10-22_Intel_Reports_Third_Quarter_2020_Financial_1424.pdf

Desktop volume down 16%, Notebook up 16% but ASP down 7%.

Q4 forecast is bad too, they are expecting 14% decline in revenue compared to Q4 last year.

 

[Hitman928]

The process roadmap has always been blank when you go 10 years out, it isn't like back in 1985 they had a roadmap with everything planned out to 1995, let alone 2020.

The industry doesn't need to know where it is going in 10 years for companies ASML and Canon to build the next generation of equipment. ITRS serves that industry, so they don't need to care beyond that horizon, even though there are obviously some people at places like IBM or academia doing blue sky research further out. Even with the roadmap, we end up seeing detours like how EUV was delayed and delayed and delayed and we ended up doing double and even quadruple patterning on 193nm sources. EUV was out near the end of the roadmap for at least a decade until they were finally able to make it work, but it didn't halt progress in the meantime.

I'm sure there will be similar detours if high NA EUV is delayed, and we'll have to see whether they can go to an even shorter "beyond EUV" wavelength or can make e-beam fast enough for mass production. As long as there are some companies willing to fund that exploration, they'll find a way like they always have in the past.

Even if TSMC ended up the last man standing at the leading edge of logic, there will still be the big DRAM firms who need to keep shrinking (though their "process name" metrics are different, they work in the same process domain - Samsung has just begun making DRAM using EUV) so there will be companies willing to fund this because demand for more RAM has never stopped even during shortages when prices shoot up.

Before the switch to FinFETs, fabs knew for years that it would be needed sub 20 nm and planned accordingly. EUV delays has caused some delays/shifts in plans, but EUV was the known path forward for over a decade now, it was just a matter of time of getting it ready for volume production. These techniques are in R&D for many years before the general public ever even hears of their existence. There are additional things coming down the pipe that will get the industry through the next 5 - 8 years with a clear path forward (though of course delays may happen). Further out, it gets a lot less clear. I have a pretty good relationship with one of my old university professors who specializes in device physics and process engineering so I chat him up every once in a while to see what is coming and I am just relaying the info I get from him who is heavily into the research side of process engineering. Again, I'm not saying that there aren't things in development that will extend further advancements 10+ years, just that it's not so clear as it has been in the past what will actually allow this to happen.

 

[TheELF]

My lord, you don't have a clue.

Have you seen the projected cost of Fabs as we go forward?
Do you realize the chip output needed to finance R&D into further node advancement?

Many have seen the future suggests only the largest with high utilization will be able to afford the expenses needed.

Have you seen how much revenue and how much net income intel makes compared to tsmc?
TSMC has to use very expensive cutting edge nodes while intel makes twice the revenue and net income because they use very cheap old nodes and they are their only customers so they don't care.
You are right in theory with what you say but the reality is that intel is making big bucks so why would they stop making big bucks?What is the motivation in using a more expensive node and losing some of the margin?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Net Income 2010-2023 | TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing annual/quarterly net income history and growth rate from 2010 to 2023. Net income can be defined as company's net profit or loss after all revenues, income items, and expenses have been accounted for. <ul style='margin-top:10px;'> <li>Taiwan...

www.macrotrends.net

Intel Net Income 2010-2024 | INTC

Intel annual/quarterly net income history and growth rate from 2010 to 2024. Net income can be defined as company's net profit or loss after all revenues, income items, and expenses have been accounted for. <ul style='margin-top:10px;'> <li>Intel net income for the quarter...

www.macrotrends.net

 

[moinmoin]

Before the switch to FinFETs, fabs knew for years that it would be needed sub 20 nm and planned accordingly. EUV delays has caused some delays/shifts in plans, but EUV was the known path forward for over a decade now, it was just a matter of time of getting it ready for volume production. These techniques are in R&D for many years before the general public ever even hears of their existence. There are additional things coming down the pipe that will get the industry through the next 5 - 8 years with a clear path forward (though of course delays may happen). Further out, it gets a lot less clear. I have a pretty good relationship with one of my old university professors who specializes in device physics and process engineering so I chat him up every once in a while to see what is coming and I am just relaying the info I get from him who is heavily into the research side of process engineering. Again, I'm not saying that there aren't things in development that will extend further advancements 10+ years, just that it's not so clear as it has been in the past what will actually allow this to happen.

There are many possibilities. As the costs are rising, exploring those possibilities becomes more costly as well (prohibitively so for purely academic research) which keeps the path ahead not as clear as in the past. In the past that was often covered by basic research already, with foundries picking up the pieces. Now the foundries more and more need to make it work themselves which is what caused the repeated delays with EUV (and may also be an influence on Intel's process node cadence falling apart).

 

[maddie]

Have you seen how much revenue and how much net income intel makes compared to tsmc?
TSMC has to use very expensive cutting edge nodes while intel makes twice the revenue and net income because they use very cheap old nodes and they are their only customers so they don't care.
You are right in theory with what you say but the reality is that intel is making big bucks so why would they stop making big bucks?What is the motivation in using a more expensive node and losing some of the margin?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Net Income 2010-2023 | TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing annual/quarterly net income history and growth rate from 2010 to 2023. Net income can be defined as company's net profit or loss after all revenues, income items, and expenses have been accounted for. <ul style='margin-top:10px;'> <li>Taiwan...

www.macrotrends.net

Intel Net Income 2010-2024 | INTC

Intel annual/quarterly net income history and growth rate from 2010 to 2024. Net income can be defined as company's net profit or loss after all revenues, income items, and expenses have been accounted for. <ul style='margin-top:10px;'> <li>Intel net income for the quarter...

www.macrotrends.net

Stunning, is all I'll say.

 

[NTMBK]

Have you seen how much revenue and how much net income intel makes compared to tsmc?
TSMC has to use very expensive cutting edge nodes while intel makes twice the revenue and net income because they use very cheap old nodes and they are their only customers so they don't care.
You are right in theory with what you say but the reality is that intel is making big bucks so why would they stop making big bucks?What is the motivation in using a more expensive node and losing some of the margin?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Net Income 2010-2023 | TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing annual/quarterly net income history and growth rate from 2010 to 2023. Net income can be defined as company's net profit or loss after all revenues, income items, and expenses have been accounted for. <ul style='margin-top:10px;'> <li>Taiwan...

www.macrotrends.net

Intel Net Income 2010-2024 | INTC

Intel annual/quarterly net income history and growth rate from 2010 to 2024. Net income can be defined as company's net profit or loss after all revenues, income items, and expenses have been accounted for. <ul style='margin-top:10px;'> <li>Intel net income for the quarter...

www.macrotrends.net

I'm just going to leave this here..

 

[moinmoin]

Have you seen how much revenue and how much net income intel makes compared to tsmc?
TSMC has to use very expensive cutting edge nodes while intel makes twice the revenue and net income because they use very cheap old nodes and they are their only customers so they don't care.
You are right in theory with what you say but the reality is that intel is making big bucks so why would they stop making big bucks?What is the motivation in using a more expensive node and losing some of the margin?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Net Income 2010-2023 | TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing annual/quarterly net income history and growth rate from 2010 to 2023. Net income can be defined as company's net profit or loss after all revenues, income items, and expenses have been accounted for. <ul style='margin-top:10px;'> <li>Taiwan...

www.macrotrends.net

Intel Net Income 2010-2024 | INTC

Intel annual/quarterly net income history and growth rate from 2010 to 2024. Net income can be defined as company's net profit or loss after all revenues, income items, and expenses have been accounted for. <ul style='margin-top:10px;'> <li>Intel net income for the quarter...

www.macrotrends.net

Thanks, you outline excellently why at this rate Intel is destined to become a commodity manufacturer far away from the competitive cutting edge tech.

 

[Scarpozzi]

I bet this is white collar covid job related losses. My assumption is that most mobile employees are working off laptops and offices aren't following typical updates this year. My office had me slated to upgrade to a new i7 desktop back in March and it never happened. I've been remote, so I didn't push for it. This will be a lot of lost revenue, but I'm guessing a lot of orders will eventually come in to replace systems out of warranty to backfill...just will equate to lost revenue for 4-6 quarters as business stabilizes again and people maybe return to desktop computing.

 

[ondma]

Have you seen how much revenue and how much net income intel makes compared to tsmc?
TSMC has to use very expensive cutting edge nodes while intel makes twice the revenue and net income because they use very cheap old nodes and they are their only customers so they don't care.
You are right in theory with what you say but the reality is that intel is making big bucks so why would they stop making big bucks?What is the motivation in using a more expensive node and losing some of the margin?

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Net Income 2010-2023 | TSM

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing annual/quarterly net income history and growth rate from 2010 to 2023. Net income can be defined as company's net profit or loss after all revenues, income items, and expenses have been accounted for. <ul style='margin-top:10px;'> <li>Taiwan...

www.macrotrends.net

Intel Net Income 2010-2024 | INTC

Intel annual/quarterly net income history and growth rate from 2010 to 2024. Net income can be defined as company's net profit or loss after all revenues, income items, and expenses have been accounted for. <ul style='margin-top:10px;'> <li>Intel net income for the quarter...

www.macrotrends.net

The motivation to use a more expensive node is to make a superior (or even competitive) product so you can maintain market share without drastic price cuts. Yes, Intel is making a lot of money right now using 14 nm, but it cant continue indefinitely.

 

[Nereus77]

Intel is screwed as long as they cannot get their nodes working properly. Look at what being stuck on 28nm did to AMD. If they can fix 10nm, 5nm and have 3nm working timeously, then maybe they can stablize their marketshare at 50%. If not, they will find their marketshare shrinking more rapidly than it is currently happening...

 

[chrisjames61]

The motivation to use a more expensive node is to make a superior (or even competitive) product so you can maintain market share without drastic price cuts. Yes, Intel is making a lot of money right now using 14 nm, but it cant continue indefinitely.

Yeah, TheElf seems to think that Intel can just keep falling farther and farther behind both AMD an TSMC and the money will keep falling off trees for them. Intel as we know them are done. You can stick a fork in them. Their big advantage is gone never to come back.

 

[chrisjames61]

Intel is screwed as long as they cannot get their nodes working properly. Look at what being stuck on 28nm did to AMD. If they can fix 10nm, 5nm and have 3nm working timeously, then maybe they can stablize their marketshare at 50%. If not, they will find their marketshare shrinking more rapidly than it is currently happening...

The momentum is certainly gaining on them and it will eventually be like a dam bursting.

 

[Nereus77]

The motivation to use a more expensive node is to make a superior (or even competitive) product so you can maintain market share without drastic price cuts. Yes, Intel is making a lot of money right now using 14 nm, but it cant continue indefinitely.

Another 14nm+++++ CPU from Intel is going to look really silly against a 5nm Zen 4, yet it seems that is what is going to happen....

 

[TheGiant]

Another 14nm+++++ CPU from Intel is going to look really silly against a 5nm Zen 4, yet it seems that is what is going to happen....

I must say I am excited to see what Intel more14+ can actually do. Mainly in gaming. Desktop CPUs are for me today from 200+EUR enough in throughput for home/office productivity tasks.

 

[Nereus77]

I must say I am excited to see what Intel more14+ can actually do. Mainly in gaming.

This is the attitude that Intel is hoping to cash in on, but alas not very many customers think this way.

 

[uzzi38]

Today might be the day.

 

[uzzi38]

Okay, I'm certain. Today is the day.

 

[uzzi38]

And here we are: https://www.hardwareluxx.de/index.p...-cove-und-den-dazugehoerigen-chipsaetzen.html

 

[DrMrLordX]

That was published in October of last year?

 

[uzzi38]

That was published in October of last year?

Uh, says 2020 for me?

 

[DrMrLordX]

Published on: Monday, October 14, 2019 at 3:00 p.m. by Andreas Schilling

Could be an error of Google Translate, let me see . . .

Veröffentlicht am: Donnerstag, 29. Oktober 2020 um 15:00 von Andreas Schilling

Correct, Google Translate messed up the date. Ha ha! And a lot of other things. In fact, it fed me the entirely wrong article.

 

[Spartak]

That was published in October of last year?

how could it be published last year when Intel only a few weeks ago (day before Zen3 announcement) officially confirmed Rocket lake?

 

[coercitiv]

PL2 = 250W , PL1 Tau = 56s

 

[coercitiv]

It's clearly been published today

https://twitter.com/x/status/1321814041380245511

 

[DrMrLordX]

how could it be published last year when Intel only a few weeks ago (day before Zen3 announcement) officially confirmed Rocket lake?

Yeah Google Translate screwed up.

 

[Spartak]

250W PL2 is brutal...