Im surprised no one responded about this one yesterday
I don't follow Adored, though if he can add something to this mess then so be it.
- intel is in a game of thrones power struggle for next ceo.
- bob swan is possibly out this year.
- murthy is sabotaging raja's group and possibly had something to do with keller's leaving.
- 10nm is going to be bad but 7nm is worse.
- murthy's claims about 7nm progress could come back to bite him.
Raja isn't/shouldn't even be in contention for the CEO seat. I agree that Swan will be shown the door, but taking out Raja makes no sense. Seems like Murthy is too protective of his own people in the fabs that stand to lose their jobs if/when Intel either a). spins off their fabs or b). starts licensing process tech from Samsung or TSMC (which is the logical course of action). Raja's designs may or may not be bunk, but he's smart enough to know he can't get DG2 or Ponte Vecchio working on Intel process tech. The only way Murthy makes it through this mess with a company worth leading is if he makes an alliance with Koduri, not if he bumps him off. That's a potential revenue stream that they can easily farm out to TSMC and be done with it. No harm done to Intel's internal manufacturing since they won't be taking a product away from Murthy's people.
If Murthy really is hot to wipe out Raja, he's making a huge mistake.
As for 7nm being
worse than 10nm? We may never know, since it's very possible that Intel will be forced to pull a GF and either quit the fab race entirely, or just start integrating someone else's tech. Eventually Intel may release some kind of product on a 7nm EUV process, but that process won't be their work.
Taking all of Intel's fabs offline for leading-edge manufacturing is going to spread chaos in the market. Intel still produces an enormous amount of silicon that go into current-gen products on the consumer and professional level. If Samsung and TSMC aren't reaching out to Intel
right now to negotiate a way to keep those fabs running, it's either going to be a huge mess or an enormous opportunity for someone. As it stands, though, I don't think anyone has the fab capacity to replace Intel 14nm. And if you think about it, if Intel continues on their current course, they won't be able to replace their own 14nm process either. The only way the current market demand can be met is if Intel integrates someone else's tech into their own fabs and starts pumping out Golden Cove (or similar) on hybridized processes.
Why did Intel lie and mislead regarding 10nm but now they are more forthcoming about 7nm problems?
What makes you think they're entirely forthcoming about 7nm's problems? An actual 6 months delay is really nothing. A robust 7nm CPU launch in Q1 2023 is not really a problem for Intel. The underlying message is that there's a bigger delay in store for a competitive product at volumes that could meet the demands of the market.
I agree that IF Intel went fabless, partnering with Samsung would make the most sense. They have plenty of spare capacity, plenty of ambition, and the US government (DoD/TLAs) would be more comfortable with chips made outside the US if they're made in South Korea. Better yet from their perspective, Intel could turn over its newer US fabs to Samsung and insist a certain percentage have to be made locally so a US source for leading edge capacity remains for the TLAs.
Can Samsung meet all of Intel's product commitments? Also, what happens to Intel's fabs and all the engineers that come with them?