Question Intel Q2: 7 nm in bad shape

[jpiniero]

Investor Relations

Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) is an industry leader, creating world-changing technology that enables global progress and enriches lives. Inspired by Moore’s Law, we continuously work to advance the design and manufacturing of semiconductors to help…

www.intc.com

Here's the money shot:

The company's 7nm-based CPU product timing is shifting approximately six months relative to prior expectations.
The primary driver is the yield of Intel's 7nm process, which based on recent data, is now trending approximately
twelve months behind the company's internal target.

Data Center volume up 29% (plus 5% ASP)
Notebook up 9%
Desktop down 14% - not as bad as I had thought

Q3 guidance bad - revenue of 18.2b vs 19.2b in 2019

 

[maddie]

..............................................................
intel faltering on 7nm as well as 10nm suggests they really have lost the critical individuals that solved the process problems back in the good old days. blame intel's corporate culture and lack of promoting people from the engineering departments.

This is so important. A few key individuals, often overlooked, can be the difference between success and failure.

 

[maddie]

Does anybody remember this comedy goldmine?

https://hexus.net/tech/news/industry/132254-moores-law-dead-insists-intels-jim-keller/

Why 'comedy goldmine'?

 

[lobz]

Remember this article? 3 months, that's all it took.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...ng-company-losing-process-leadership-to-intel

OK, but where is liahos? I can't find him in this thread.

 

[lobz]

Client CPU first, eh? Pentiums? Atom maybe?

2C/2T Machinegun Lake-U probably on 7nm with disabled iGPU.

 

[lobz]

Couple of questions to answer though;
Is it with the qualification fleet(NXE:3300/NXE:3350/NXE:3400B @ Oregon) or a production fleet(NXE:3400C)?
Is the yield numbers with pellicle or without pellicle?

If it is qualification and without pellicle those expectations are a little early for doom and gloom.

TSMC 5nm/Samsung 3nm don't even have that as doom and gloom. But, we've seen everyone with sense avoid 7nm+/7LPP onwards though for 8LPP/N7P.

Umm... what? A14 is on TSMC's 5nm and it's launching soon. Pellicle my bottom half.

 

[lobz]

intel faltering on 7nm as well as 10nm suggests they really have lost the critical individuals that solved the process problems back in the good old days. blame intel's corporate culture and lack of promoting people from the engineering departments.

I'm sure they haven't. It's the management that's deaf beyond measure.

Edit: OK I'm sorry. Next time I'll throw away my laziness and create one post with multi-quoting.

 

[NTMBK]

Why 'comedy goldmine'?

Intel saying that Moore's Law isn't dead... a year before they start publicly announcing the 7nm delays.

 

[traderjay]

Intel has two option now, either do a price war with AMD but it can only last so long because.....

Over the years, they got comfortable charging insane prices to pad their exec compensation and share buybacks, plus sustaining a very bloated organization so a major restructuring is coming in the near future. Their gross margin is already shrinking as a result of the price war. AMD over the years ( I am ex AMD Alumnus) has learned how to operate lean and mean from battling with nvidia and Intel.

Going to a third party foundry is another option but there goes their margins as well....

 

[maddie]

Intel saying that Moore's Law isn't dead... a year before they start publicly announcing the 7nm delays.

Fair enough.

For myself though, I never saw Keller as an Intel guy and looked at that video as an individual speaking his mind. Sure, he's a hired gun and was used by Intel to message the wider world, but he's right. Moore's Law is really an economic one and 3D tech will allow it to continue apace.

 

[blckgrffn]

I guess that the most likely scenario, if this continues, from the enthusiast point of view is that AMD and Intel swap roles. For the young, you might be getting a live lesson in how a giant dies. learn well.

We'll see if this is longer lived than the AMD leads in the Thoroughbred/Barton days or the A64 and A64 x2 days. This is undoubtedly a body blow for Intel but I am not going to count them out for some time... they are simply to relevant to new server, desktop and PC sales to disappear overnight. The next 2-3 years seem to be a critical time.

 

[Ajay]

Well, this explains why there was no information on Intel's 7EUV progress. I think the question at hand is it 14nm terrible (6 month delay, a bit short on performance targets); or 10nm horrible.

 

[jpiniero]

Well, this explains why there was no information on Intel's 7EUV progress. I think the question at hand is it 14nm terrible (6 month delay, a bit short on performance targets); or 10nm horrible.

They claim a 6 month delay, but also said they are a year behind their internal target.

 

[fleshconsumed]

A tale of two stocks.

Granted, INTC market cap is still 2.5x AMD, but it is funny seeing INTC go down 17% and AMD go up 17% in the same day. It's almost mirror image of each other.

 

[moinmoin]

This is undoubtedly a body blow for Intel but I am not going to count them out for some time... they are simply to relevant to new server, desktop and PC sales to disappear overnight. The next 2-3 years seem to be a critical time.

Why are always the future years the critical time? Intel should have seen the danger coming for years now. Intel should have enough self-awareness to notice that since 22nm their node progress is increasingly stuttering. Intel should have been preparing for AMD's rising competitiveness since when Zen was shown to be pretty competitive back in 2017, when Zen+ narrowed the gap some more back in 2018, and when Zen 2 essentially matched or even surpassed Intel in all relevant areas last year. Until now Intel was in the position of unbelievable financial strength, with a string of quarters with record revenue and income. Now is the time Intel needs to show how they used that position of strength for preparing itself in all those years of the ongoing slow motion car crash which was always in the open for everybody to see.

If Intel thinks it has to react now that's frankly a little late.

 

[Kenmitch]

We'll see if this is longer lived than the AMD leads in the Thoroughbred/Barton days or the A64 and A64 x2 days. This is undoubtedly a body blow for Intel but I am not going to count them out for some time... they are simply to relevant to new server, desktop and PC sales to disappear overnight. The next 2-3 years seem to be a critical time.

Would be nice to see AMD land a nice uppercut in the next round.

 

[beginner99]

This is so important. A few key individuals, often overlooked, can be the difference between success and failure.

True. I fully agree. And upper management has a tendency to not understand that and not compensate these people accordingly.
But on the other hand even a group of geniuses can't solve a problem if there is too much bureaucratic and political red tape and wrong incentives.

 

[lightmanek]

Would be nice to see AMD land a nice uppercut in the next round.

Yes, but we need two strong players to keep our prices at somewhat reasonable levels and good competition also helps with speedy advancements.

 

[mxnerd]

Wonder whether CEO Bob Swan and it's engineers spend too much time playing golf with POTUS. 😁


This isn't the P&N forum.

AT Mod Usandthem

 

[CluelessOne]

idk I kind of feel like Steak is overrated. If you give me a choice between Steak and Sushi I'm taking Sushi every time.

I prefer grilled fish.

On topic, I just feel sad watching Intel flailing like this. How the mighty have fallen. Hubris had claimed many giants and giants in their own mind.

 

[turtile]

Yes, but we need two strong players to keep our prices at somewhat reasonable levels and good competition also helps with speedy advancements.

Luckily, I don't think that will be too much of a problem now. AMD knows it must compete with ARM competitors, not just Intel.

 

[Asterox]

Why are always the future years the critical time? Intel should have seen the danger coming for years now. Intel should have enough self-awareness to notice that since 22nm their node progress is increasingly stuttering. Intel should have been preparing for AMD's rising competitiveness since when Zen was shown to be pretty competitive back in 2017, when Zen+ narrowed the gap some more back in 2018, and when Zen 2 essentially matched or even surpassed Intel in all relevant areas last year. Until now Intel was in the position of unbelievable financial strength, with a string of quarters with record revenue and income. Now is the time Intel needs to show how they used that position of strength for preparing itself in all those years of the ongoing slow motion car crash which was always in the open for everybody to see.

If Intel thinks it has to react now that's frankly a little late.

"Well, Intel 5G debacle was kind od cute sign". Move along it is ok, no any visible nm problem for Intel.

Why did Intel kill off their modem program?

Minutes after the Qualcomm/Apple settlement yesterday Intel announced they were shelving 5G modem development.

semiaccurate.com

 

[gorobei]

Im surprised no one responded about this one yesterday. though it is the weekend and I suspect most don't get jim's info directly from him but rather from people repeating his leaks without crediting.

since some wont watch or address his claims without ad hominen:

• intel is in a game of thrones power struggle for next ceo.
• bob swan is possibly out this year.
• murthy is sabotaging raja's group and possibly had something to do with keller's leaving.
• 10nm is going to be bad but 7nm is worse.
• murthy's claims about 7nm progress could come back to bite him.

you will know if any of this is true if dg2/3 are announced as axed or raja leaves as well.

linus indicated he had inside knowledge so he couldnt comment about intel's future moves, so i wonder how much dr cutress can say on the next techtechpotato.

 

[Adonisds]

Why did Intel lie and mislead regarding 10nm but now they are more forthcoming about 7nm problems?

 

[Vattila]

Why did Intel lie and mislead regarding 10nm but now they are more forthcoming about 7nm problems?

There are laws against misleading shareholders. Already, lawsuits are being prepared after the 7nm delay revelation.

The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz Announces Investigation of Intel Corporation (INTC) on Behalf of Investors

The Law Offices of Frank R. Cruz announces an investigation on behalf of Intel Corporation (

www.businesswire.com

Case Information - Glancy Prongay & Murray LLP

www.glancylaw.com

 

[JasonLD]

If Intel's 7nm is on way to become another 10nm disaster, probably the best move Intel can make is getting into cross-licensing agreement with Samsung. Samsung's ambition is to become biggest foundary business by 2030 and they would absolutely love to get a piece of Intel's business.