Question Intel Q1 Results

[jpiniero]

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_9c3e3f96270e337e2027289673ff9794/intel/db/887/8842/earnings_release/Q1+22_EarningsRelease.pdf

Revenue down 7%, which is actually better than their forecast. Stock getting pummeled anyway.

Client was the big loser. "Datacenter and AI" posted higher revenue but lower net income. That's terrible.

 

[nicalandia]

7% is actually great numbers when your top of the line Server/Datacenter and AI have been getting trashed for the last few years and your Upcoming product will not fair any different

 

[Markfw]

But look at this quote from I think the same Toms Hardware article:
Unfortunately, we don't have any official benchmark results of AMD's new Threadripper 5000WX Pro CPUs and AMD's server CPUs such as Milan and Milan-X to compare against. However, if AMD's 3990X results tell us anything, it's that Sapphire Rapids can offer incredible performance over AMD's Zen 2 counterparts, which should provide some good competition against Zen 3 Threadripper and EPYC processors.

So it just beats Zen2, and they think it will compete with Zen 4 ? Who writes this crap ?

 

[Hitman928]

Don't have much time today to look through it, but weaker Q2 guidance is probably what has the stock trading lower after hours. Full year guidance seems not as bad, lower FY revenue than 2021 and even 2020 projected. They must be expecting a big surge in Q3/Q4. Probably when Sapphire Rapids will actually be in the market. GM expected to continue to hit historic lows. Probably still gonna be another couple years of pain before their plans hopefully bear fruit.

 

[Asterox]

But look at this quote from I think the same Toms Hardware article:
Unfortunately, we don't have any official benchmark results of AMD's new Threadripper 5000WX Pro CPUs and AMD's server CPUs such as Milan and Milan-X to compare against. However, if AMD's 3990X results tell us anything, it's that Sapphire Rapids can offer incredible performance over AMD's Zen 2 counterparts, which should provide some good competition against Zen 3 Threadripper and EPYC processors.

So it just beats Zen2, and they think it will compete with Zen 4 ? Who writes this crap ?

Hm, very likely Manuel from FT.

 

[Thibsie]

But look at this quote from I think the same Toms Hardware article:
Unfortunately, we don't have any official benchmark results of AMD's new Threadripper 5000WX Pro CPUs and AMD's server CPUs such as Milan and Milan-X to compare against. However, if AMD's 3990X results tell us anything, it's that Sapphire Rapids can offer incredible performance over AMD's Zen 2 counterparts, which should provide some good competition against Zen 3 Threadripper and EPYC processors.

So it just beats Zen2, and they think it will compete with Zen 4 ? Who writes this crap ?

Well sorry but... this typical Tom's.
Intel dollars in every pockets.

 

[Exist50]

But look at this quote from I think the same Toms Hardware article:
Unfortunately, we don't have any official benchmark results of AMD's new Threadripper 5000WX Pro CPUs and AMD's server CPUs such as Milan and Milan-X to compare against. However, if AMD's 3990X results tell us anything, it's that Sapphire Rapids can offer incredible performance over AMD's Zen 2 counterparts, which should provide some good competition against Zen 3 Threadripper and EPYC processors.

So it just beats Zen2, and they think it will compete with Zen 4 ? Who writes this crap ?

They say it'll compete with Zen 3. It's in the quote...

 

[Markfw]

They say it'll compete with Zen 3. It's in the quote...

And Zen 3 has been out for now long ? My 5950x's are dated 2018 mfg date, and I bought them in 2020. So maybe it will compete with Zen 3, but what about Milan (thats been out that long) and Genoa (that will be out before SR comes out) or Bergamo that will be out shortly after. It should compete against something released within 6 months either way from it.

 

[Exist50]

And Zen 3 has been out for now long ? My 5950x's are dated 2018 mfg date, and I bought them in 2020. So maybe it will compete with Zen 3, but what about Milan (thats been out that long) and Genoa (that will be out before SR comes out) or Bergamo that will be out shortly after. It should compete against something released within 6 months either way from it.

None of that has anything to do with you claiming they were talking about Zen 4. And Zen 3 Threadrippers are quite new, on that particular topic.

 

[lobz]

But look at this quote from I think the same Toms Hardware article:
Unfortunately, we don't have any official benchmark results of AMD's new Threadripper 5000WX Pro CPUs and AMD's server CPUs such as Milan and Milan-X to compare against. However, if AMD's 3990X results tell us anything, it's that Sapphire Rapids can offer incredible performance over AMD's Zen 2 counterparts, which should provide some good competition against Zen 3 Threadripper and EPYC processors.

So it just beats Zen2, and they think it will compete with Zen 4 ? Who writes this crap ?

Tom's Hardware has been consistently delivering quality journalism.


Just not for the past 2 decades.

 

[Markfw]

None of that has anything to do with you claiming they were talking about Zen 4. And Zen 3 Threadrippers are quite new, on that particular topic.

I did not say they said anything about Zen 4. But any idiot knows that to compare to a technology that is 3-4 years old (Zen 3) is insane in this day and age. I assumed incorrectly that they meant Zen 4 or Genoa, since thats what will be out about the time they are announced. This article said nothing of the configurations, or the power usage, just a couple quick benchmarks, that by themselves mean very little. But as Thibsie said, Intels $$$ in their pockets mean more than real journalism.

 

[kognak]

And Zen 3 has been out for now long ? My 5950x's are dated 2018 mfg date, and I bought them in 2020. So maybe it will compete with Zen 3, but what about Milan (thats been out that long) and Genoa (that will be out before SR comes out) or Bergamo that will be out shortly after. It should compete against something released within 6 months either way from it.

Mfg date on the CPU is in year/week format. I checked a few reviews from launch day and almost all had week 38(mid Sep) 5950Xs, a couple week 35(late Aug). I bet your 5950X's are 2038's too, week 18 is too early.

 

[Markfw]

Mfg date on the CPU is in year/week format. I checked a few reviews from launch day and almost all had week 38(mid Sep) 5950Xs, a couple week 35(late Aug). I bet your 5950X's are 2038's too, week 18 is too early.

I meant year 2018, and yes, LATE.... They came out in late 2020, but they were manufactured before that. 2018 may be too early, I just thought I remembered seeing that.

Regardless, Comparing a chip that is not even out yet against a 2 year old chip is just stupid. Of course they should be competitive. If Intel was not in the toilet now, they should have been at least equal.

 

[Exist50]

I did not say they said anything about Zen 4.

Uh...

So it just beats Zen2, and they think it will compete with Zen 4 ? Who writes this crap ?

I assumed incorrectly that they meant Zen 4 or Genoa

They stated exactly what they meant. Chagall is not even 2 months old. Why are you expecting a replacement any time soon?

This article said nothing of the configurations, or the power usage, just a couple quick benchmarks

Indeed, that's what the leak consists of... If you have other information, by all means post it.

 

[Markfw]

Uh...




They stated exactly what they meant. Chagall is not even 2 months old. Why are you expecting a replacement any time soon?



Indeed, that's what the leak consists of... If you have other information, by all means post it.

Since you don't get my point, lets try this. The 8470 should be compared to a EPYC CPU that is due out at the same time. a SERVER CPU. apples to apples. By the best guesses I have seen, that will be Genoa. So a 48 core or 64 core Genoa against the 56 core 8470. I predict it will lose BADLY. And power consumption as well. I believe that's what @nicalandia is also saying.

 

[Exist50]

The 8470 should be compared to a EPYC CPU that is due out at the same time. a SERVER CPU

I agree. Genoa will obviously slaughter Sapphire Rapids, and I don't see a single person claiming otherwise. But that has nothing to do with the part of your comment I replied to.

 

[DrMrLordX]

https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_9c3e3f96270e337e2027289673ff9794/intel/db/887/8842/earnings_release/Q1+22_EarningsRelease.pdf

Revenue down 7%, which is actually better than their forecast. Stock getting pummeled anyway.

Client was the big loser. "Datacenter and AI" posted higher revenue but lower net income. That's terrible.

That link doesn't seem to be working anymore.

Intel Reports Q1 2022 Earnings: Improved Enterprise Sales Buoy Weaker Client Revenue

www.anandtech.com

As far as analysis goes: looks like the stock selloff is more from the guidance than the Q1 numbers. Or at least that seems to be the case. Intel is struggling to bring anything other than 14nm to the datacentre, which has been hurting them for a few quarters now. The damage is piling up, and it may be too late to stop the bleeding.

But it is surprising to me that it's client that's really taking a beating, despite Alder Lake being essentially the most sophisticated CPU product they can bring to market. AND they have at least one followup before manufacturing woes threaten their roadmap again. The DCG numbers are not inspirational, but they're still better than client.

 

[moinmoin]

But it is surprising to me that it's client that's really taking a beating, despite Alder Lake being essentially the most sophisticated CPU product they can bring to market. AND they have at least one followup before manufacturing woes threaten their roadmap again. The DCG numbers are not inspirational, but they're still better than client.

I can only guess that Intel doesn't have Alder Lake in sufficient quantity to offset the losses in client. DCG while losing margin fast seems to be a more stable bubble overall so Intel likely moved older node capacity to there which would explain expanding revenue (with stagnating profit).

 

[jpiniero]

Intel posted the 10Q: https://www.intc.com/filings-report...0000050863-22-000020/0000050863-22-000020.pdf

Notebook revenue was $6.0 billion, down $997 million from Q1 2021. Notebook unit sales decreased 35% driven by lower demand in the consumer and education market
segments following a supply chain inventory digestion cycle compared to COVID-driven highs in Q1 2021, partially offset by an increase in ASPs of 32% due to an increased mix of commercial and consumer products, and lower mix of education.

Desktop revenue was $2.6 billion, down $130 million from Q1 2021. Desktop unit sales decreased 11% driven by lower demand in consumer and education market segments, partially offset by an increase in ASPs of 7%, driven by commercial recovery from COVID-19.

Server Revenue was $6.0 billion, up $1.1 billion from Q1 2021, primarily driven by an increase in server revenue. Server volume increased 28% due to demand from our hyperscale
customer-related products and continued recovery from COVID-driven lows in Q1 2021. This was partially offset by a 3% decrease in server ASPs due to customer and product
mix. Other DCAI revenue increased primarily due to growth in our FPGA business.

 

[moinmoin]

Intel's "digestion cycles" will never be not funny to me.

 

[Hitman928]

Skimming the earnings call transcript, Intel is saying increased revenue in second half of the year partially attributed to data center product ramps of both Icelake and Sapphire Rapids. They also continue to put partial blame on decreasing margins due to 10nm/7 ramping. Seems they still haven't got all the yield issues resolved for 10nm/7, not to the point of enabling the larger dies without issue anyway.

 

[jpiniero]

Skimming the earnings call transcript, Intel is saying increased revenue in second half of the year partially attributed to data center product ramps of both Icelake and Sapphire Rapids. They also continue to put partial blame on decreasing margins due to 10nm/7 ramping. Seems they still haven't got all the yield issues resolved for 10nm/7, not to the point of enabling the larger dies without issue anyway.

Sapphire is also 1600 mm2...

 

[Hitman928]

Sapphire is also 1600 mm2...

It's 4 x 400 mm2 tiles with each tile already having 1 core disabled for yield. Icelake is even bigger at over 600 mm2 but only a single die. That's why I mentioned the larger dies still clearly being an issue. I don't think this should be surprising to anyone, just that it is almost confirmation from Intel without directly saying it.

 

[jpiniero]

It's 4 x 400 mm2 tiles with each tile already having 1 core disabled for yield. Icelake is even bigger at over 600 mm2 but only a single die. That's why I mentioned the larger dies still clearly being an issue. I don't think this should be surprising to anyone, just that it is almost confirmation from Intel without directly saying it.

4x400 still means they are using 1600 mm2 of 10 nm silicon, even if the yields of each individual chiplet is better than Icelake XCC.

 

[Hitman928]

4x400 still means they are using 1600 mm2 of 10 nm silicon, even if the yields of each individual chiplet is better than Icelake XCC.

What is your point in relation to my post?