Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes + WCL Discussion Threads

[Tigerick]

Wildcat Lake (WCL) Preliminary Specs

Intel Wildcat Lake (WCL) is upcoming mobile SoC replacing ADL-N. WCL consists of 2 tiles: compute tile and PCD tile. It is true single die consists of CPU, GPU and NPU that is fabbed by 18-A process. Last time I checked, PCD tile is fabbed by TSMC N6 process. They are connected through UCIe, not D2D; a first from Intel. Expecting launching in Q2/Computex 2026. In case people don't remember AlderLake-N, I have created a table below to compare the detail specs of ADL-N and WCL. Just for fun, I am throwing LNL and upcoming Mediatek D9500 SoC.

		Intel Alder Lake - N	Intel Wildcat Lake	Intel Lunar Lake		Mediatek D9500
Launch Date		Q1-2023	Q2-2026 ?	Q3-2024		Q3-2025
Model		Intel N300	?	Core Ultra 7 268V		Dimensity 9500 5G
Dies		2	2	2		1
Node		Intel 7 + ?	Intel 18-A + TSMC N6	TSMC N3B + N6		TSMC N3P
CPU		8 E-cores	2 P-core + 4 LP E-cores	4 P-core + 4 LP E-cores		C1 1+3+4
Threads		8	6	8		8
Max Clock		3.8 GHz	?	5 GHz
L3 Cache		6 MB	?	12 MB
TDP		7 W	Fanless ?	17 W		Fanless
Memory		64-bit LPDDR5-4800	64-bit LPDDR5-6800 ?	128-bit LPDDR5X-8533		64-bit LPDDR5X-10667
Size		16 GB	?	32 GB		24 GB ?
Bandwidth			~ 55 GB/s	136 GB/s		85.6 GB/s
GPU		UHD Graphics		Arc 140V		G1 Ultra
EU / Xe		32 EU	2 Xe	8 Xe		12
Max Clock		1.25 GHz		2 GHz
NPU		NA	18 TOPS	48 TOPS		100 TOPS ?

As Hot Chips 34 starting this week, Intel will unveil technical information of upcoming Meteor Lake (MTL) and Arrow Lake (ARL), new generation platform after Raptor Lake. Both MTL and ARL represent new direction which Intel will move to multiple chiplets and combine as one SoC platform.

MTL also represents new compute tile that based on Intel 4 process which is based on EUV lithography, a first from Intel. Intel expects to ship MTL mobile SoC in 2023.

ARL will come after MTL so Intel should be shipping it in 2024, that is what Intel roadmap is telling us. ARL compute tile will be manufactured by Intel 20A process, a first from Intel to use GAA transistors called RibbonFET.

 

[eek2121]

I liked Gelsinger, but considering some of his statements recently, one has to take anything he says with a grain of salt. As someone else said, If 18A was in great shape, I dont think Gelsinger would have been forced out.

Intel lost a ton of money during his tenure, even if 18A is amazing he would be out. At the end of the day, money is the only thing that matters.

I don’t think anything is wrong with 18A, they just didn’t have the capacity and time to do a release on it. Remember that designing EVERYTHING in this space takes years, even decades.

Oh and using a competitor for their core product probably was the catalyst as well. It made the company look incompetent, then you have the raptor lake fiasco, and also AMD eating marketshare. No, I am sure that 18A is fine. The numbers I have consistently seen indicate high yields (> 90%) and good performance (better than what TSMC has)

He had to go regardless of the end result. Shareholders don’t want to wait years on a “maybe”. In their eyes Intel should have sold the fabs and focused on making chips.

I personally think he made the right decision, but it will take a long time for the payoff.

Intel also needs to improve company culture, I have heard it is NOT a good company to work for (I almost did once, even started the interview process, did not continue)

 

[igor_kavinski]

(I almost did once, even started the interview process, did not continue)

Please ask them for another interview (remote work only). We need an official AT Intel Insider

 

[DrMrLordX]

I'm still interested in seeing what Intel3 does for Meteor Lake refresh. The specs for frequencies were promising at least.

You mean Arrow Lake-U?

 

[Doug S]

... and my thing is that if Intel's 18A was doing really well, they would be publishing information every week about it to keep their stock prices high. There is no reason I can think of to be hiding it under a bushel if it is really going well ...... so as such, I fear the worst. .

You misunderstand how executive incentive structure might affect what sort of price movements will be in their personal best interest.

Some companies will price stock or option awards based on the lower of the Jan. 1 or Dec. 31 stock price. If you're an Intel exec, and you are getting some sort of stock/option award for 2024 where the Jan. 1 price is much higher than the current price and you'd like that current price to be the Dec. 31 price, what is your incentive to say anything that will move the stock price higher prior to Jan. 1 2025?

They can give all the rosy numbers to their 18A customers and prospective customers they are wanting to reassure and to land, but under NDA, while saying nothing publicly for now. Why should they? They aren't violating any SEC regulations by saying nothing, and it may be in the company's best interest too - let TSMC believe they will continue to run roughshod over Intel's foundry efforts for as long as possible.

 

[OneEng2]

You misunderstand how executive incentive structure might affect what sort of price movements will be in their personal best interest.

Some companies will price stock or option awards based on the lower of the Jan. 1 or Dec. 31 stock price. If you're an Intel exec, and you are getting some sort of stock/option award for 2024 where the Jan. 1 price is much higher than the current price and you'd like that current price to be the Dec. 31 price, what is your incentive to say anything that will move the stock price higher prior to Jan. 1 2025?

They can give all the rosy numbers to their 18A customers and prospective customers they are wanting to reassure and to land, but under NDA, while saying nothing publicly for now. Why should they? They aren't violating any SEC regulations by saying nothing, and it may be in the company's best interest too - let TSMC believe they will continue to run roughshod over Intel's foundry efforts for as long as possible.

All valid points!

We will see soon enough!

 

[OneEng2]

Not yields. It's hitting volume on time that remain in question. Same happened to Intel 4 (and also Intel 3 I think). For comparison, TSMC hits volume on time every time. Intel, no so much.

Yes....

And cost surely? Even if the yields are good, that can still cost too much

And yes!

Can they make the yield target?

Can they make chips profitability?

Can they get enough customers signed up and paying for foundry services before they go bankrupt?

 

[mzocyteae]

TSMC start with 100-120mm2 Apple A series as a lead vehicle and than yield goes up you can't expect a process that is not in HVM ready yet to do 800mm2 also the only fab that has problem with this size is Samsung not Intel (EMR/GNR/SRF is proof)

Even Samsung can do 600m^2 5hpp for ibm telum 2.

 

[LightningZ71]

You mean Arrow Lake-U?

Well, that may be the official branding, but, Core Ultra 200U doesn't use Lion Cove nor Skymont. Instead, it's "Redwood Cove +" and "Crestmont enhanced" on Intel3. I agree with VideoCardz that it should be referred to as Meteor Lake refresh...
VideoCardz take...

 

[511]

Even Samsung can do 600m^2 5hpp for ibm telum 2

Pretty sure they can but 5nm is too old at this point can any company do it during initial node ramp ?
Unsuprisingly No

 

[511]

Well, that may be the official branding, but, Core Ultra 200U doesn't use Lion Cove nor Skymont. Instead, it's "Redwood Cove +" and "Crestmont enhanced" on Intel3. I agree with VideoCardz that it should be referred to as Meteor Lake refresh...
VideoCardz take...

bu... but Intel Marketing Department 😂

 

[DrMrLordX]

Well, that may be the official branding, but, Core Ultra 200U doesn't use Lion Cove nor Skymont. Instead, it's "Redwood Cove +" and "Crestmont enhanced" on Intel3. I agree with VideoCardz that it should be referred to as Meteor Lake refresh...
VideoCardz take...

Yes, it isn't a useful name for the product. I was mostly concerned with whether we were talking about the same thing. Now I see that we are.

 

[FlameTail]

Also, it's AMD's first attempt. Assuming they don't give up on this sort of SoC in the future, every subsequent iteration of it will be better and better. AMD is moving things forward in stark contrast to Intel who only plan and then cancel (320EU iGPU anyone?).

I heard a rumour that Intel initially planned to make a Panther Lake Halo with 20 Xe3 cores. That would have been competitive against Strix Halo.

But of course... they cancelled it.

 

[511]

I mean 20Xe3 would have been better but it would require 256 bit bus to feed the beast

 

[igor_kavinski]

Intel keeps cancelling stuff because they waste money on the wrong products.

 

[511]

Intel keeps cancelling stuff because they waste money on the wrong products.

Some idiot PM is in charge ofc

 

[Hulk]

Intel keeps cancelling stuff because they waste money on the wrong products.

This is really the crux of the issue for Intel. When you are a very successful company and grow very large when you are owning the market you can afford R&D everywhere and even if only a bit of it pays off it's okay because you own the market, there is essentially no competition so you are raking in profit regardless.

But, slowly your market share erodes and instead of making the hard decisions on which projects to cut back funding, which to cancel, and which to continue. In a nutshell these are the decisions that the people at the top, specifically the CEO's over the last 15 or so years did not address correctly, at all, or quickly enough.

Now the boat has leaks everywhere. Intel needs to look at it's bread and butter and get all hands on deck for that. Everything else should be put on hold until that is rectified.

To put it in car terms let's look at BMW or Honda. They can have "pet" projects, but BMW has to get the 3 series right, Honda has to get the Accord right. They lose those and the pet projects and the panache or trickle down learning from them doesn't matter because the company is no longer relevent in the primary way it makes profit.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Btw same link 9600X is loosing in productivity and rendering

Intel Core Ultra 5 245K Review

The Intel Core Ultra 5 245K is the company's most affordable Arrow Lake release today. While its 6+8 core config without Hyper-Threading might make it appear weak at first, it actually punches well above its weight, especially in applications. Unfortunately gaming isn't working so well.

www.techpowerup.com

It's a tradeoff and informed customers will make the decision that makes more sense to them.

9600X:

5% faster in games on average.
AVX-512 support.
Drop-in upgrade to X3D in future, saving on the cost of a whole platform upgrade.
Can't think of any serious cons.

245K:

Higher RAM speeds with CUDIMM in future when DDR5-9600 becomes cheaper.
+10% faster in productivity on average.

I/O speed issues with NVMe drives (https://forums.anandtech.com/thread...akes-discussion-threads.2606448/post-41324708)

No upgrade path as far as we know.
No AVX-512 support.
Unattractive for those interested in playing emulated games.

 

[maddie]

This is really the crux of the issue for Intel. When you are a very successful company and grow very large when you are owning the market you can afford R&D everywhere and even if only a bit of it pays off it's okay because you own the market, there is essentially no competition so you are raking in profit regardless.

There are negatives to being the dominant player in a margin obsessed stockmarket. We sometimes forget that as a company approaches 100 % marketshare, your performance is the market and you can't beat this.

 

[511]

It's a tradeoff and informed customers will make the decision that makes more sense to them.

9600X:

5% faster in games on average.
AVX-512 support.
Drop-in upgrade to X3D in future, saving on the cost of a whole platform upgrade.
Can't think of any serious cons.

245K:

Higher RAM speeds with CUDIMM in future when DDR5-9600 becomes cheaper.
+10% faster in productivity on average.

I/O speed issues with NVMe drives (https://forums.anandtech.com/thread...akes-discussion-threads.2606448/post-41324708)

No upgrade path as far as we know.
No AVX-512 support.
Unattractive for those interested in playing emulated games.

faster iGPU
Media engines
It's as fast as 9700X in many productivity application
For 9600X me neither no as such serious cons also for upgrade path it depends on user i upgrade my whole spec in 4 years

 

[511]

There are negatives to being the dominant player in a margin obsessed stockmarket. We sometimes forget that as a company approaches 100 % marketshare, your performance is the market and you can't beat this.

You can always improve yourself there is always room for improvement better than getting complacent

 

[maddie]

You can always improve yourself there is always room for improvement better than getting complacent

Sure, but not as easy as you think.

Why did it take so long to beat the 4 minute mile and then so many quickly achieved it afterward?

 

[511]

Sure, but not as easy as you think.

Why did it take so long to beat the 4 minute mile and then so many quickly achieved it afterward?

Room can be smaller or bigger 🙂

 

[511]

Biggest ROFL ARL Moment

https://twitter.com/x/status/1866531904574685215

 

[maddie]

Room can be smaller or bigger 🙂

Of course it can. How, is the question. A general statement on growing the TAM is Hollywood scripting, when the main character says "just make it happen". Oh for life to be so simple.

 

[Hulk]

Let's do a differential diagnosis on Arrow Lake. Data from TechPowerup review.
Compared to the 14900K this is where the 285K does significantly better than the 14900K.

The AI apps are over performing obviously due to the AI processor on ARL. But how about the other applications? What do each group (the ones that do better than the 14900K and the ones that do worse) have in common with one another?

AI Photo Photo Enhance +45%
AI Stable Diffusion +31%
AI NLP +18%
Blender +17%
COMSOL +16%
AV1 +15%
SHA3 +14%
NAMD +13%
V-Ray +11%
Y-Cruncher +9%

This is where it is significantly behind.
Gaming - Down about 6% on average at 1080p
Powerpoint -27%
WinRaR -24%
Premiere Pro - 18%
7 Zip decompression -18% ("only" down about 6% for compression)
Speedometer -16%
Outlook -15%
JetStream2 -14%
Avast -13%
AES -13%
MySQL -12%
Word --11%
Altium -10%
Excel -9%