I think MTL & RPL refresh is set to launch this Q3 (hopefully). Even RPL refresh won't launch b4 Q3 this year i guess.
Since there is no news about ARL tapeout, even a Q3 2024 launch seems a bit doubtful. So, lets forget Q1 2024 for now.
Actually, launching a product based on Intel 20A in Q1 2024 is very unlikely since Intel itself announced that only pdk 0.5 has been released for ARL. They (both design team & the node) are gonna need at least 6 months to finish tweaking the libraries and after that ARL needs a few steppings at least after the tape out and power on to go into manufacturing. So, ARL in Q3 2024 itself is difficult.
At best ARL is a Q3 2024 product with chances of slipping into early 2025.
Not much is know about the health of 18A, but I'm guessing LNL will need a few more months at least after ARL launch; considering it's a brand new architecture on a brand new node and it hasn't taped-out yet. That clearly puts it in Q1 2025 at best (but thats being too optimistic considering the lack of info).