Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread

[shady28]

Are you saying Intel isn't losing any significant sales to Zen 3? Seems like AMD is selling every Zen 3 part they can get to market and I don't think it's farfetched to believe many of those people would have bought Comet Lake if Zen 3 was not available. Not to mention all of the people upgrading to Zen 3 from Zen/2. I don't know the exact numbers but the reality and perception of these sales over Comet Lakes can't be a good thing for Intel.

It's like Intel has a man (or two) in the penalty box until RL arrives and they are certainly putting on the pressure.

Intel hasn't lost squat to Zen 3, because it isn't there in any quantity and won't be until sometime in Q1. Leftover Zen 2 is probably doing 10x the damage to Intel that Zen 3 is. You can't sell what you don't have.

 

[Hulk]

Intel hasn't lost squat to Zen 3, because it isn't there in any quantity and won't be until sometime in Q1. Leftover Zen 2 is probably doing 10x the damage to Intel that Zen 3 is. You can't sell what you don't have.

Okay then. We'll have to see where things are in 6 months but it does seem like AMD has a foothold in a place they haven't been before with Zen 3.

 

[scineram]

10 nm volumes are tiny because Tiger Lake volumes are a fraction of notebook volumes.

 

[dacostafilipe]

Intel hasn't lost squat to Zen 3, because it isn't there in any quantity and won't be until sometime in Q1.

And you think people will buy Intel instead of waiting for Zen3? Who would be crazy enough to do that?

 

[mikk]

10 nm volumes are tiny because Tiger Lake volumes are a fraction of notebook volumes.

Tigerlake isn't Intels only 10nm notebook generation in the market.

 

[LightningZ71]

That's true, they are making good volume with 1005 and 1035

 

[ondma]

And you think people will buy Intel instead of waiting for Zen3? Who would be crazy enough to do that?

Somebody that needs a computer now? Honestly, either Intel or AMD is perfectly adequate for the vast majority of users.

 

[Hulk]

Somebody that needs a computer now? Honestly, either Intel or AMD is perfectly adequate for the vast majority of users.

This is so true. To take it one step further the vast majority of users wouldn't even know if they were using a current processor or one from 4 years ago.

 

[shady28]

And you think people will buy Intel instead of waiting for Zen3? Who would be crazy enough to do that?

I'm guessing that is hyperbole. Obviously 99.9%+ of PCs currently being sold are sold to people who are not waiting for Zen 3.

When I say none of the major OEMs carry Zen 3, that does mean something. One OEM where you can order Zen 3 prebuilt that's pretty well known here in nerd land is CyberPowerPC. CyberPowerPC is one of the largest OEMs AMD lists for Zen, their estimated revenue is between 50 and 100M/ year. iBuyPower is ~10M.

By comparison, Dell had over 92,000M ($92B) revenue in 2019. That is around 1000 times both of those OEMs combined. If half of Dell's revenue is client PCs then they would shp more PCs in one day than CyberPowerPC + iBuyPower ships in 2 years.

And you can't get a Zen 3 from either of those tiny OEMs until "estimated" after Christmas. Reality is, they are probably getting a trickle of 50 or 100 CPUs a week.

This is why AMD has no big OEMs listed. They can't supply them.

Lack of any of the major OEMs carrying Zen 3 should have been a big red flag for these "tech" sites. That's a major fail.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Not the laptop segment, which is what I was focused on.

Wrong. Comet Lake still features significantly in Intel's laptop sales, even in Q4 2020.

Intel 10nm Xeon

Yeah that's the 14c variant, which I think popped up some time ago. Still not seeing a lot of data on 28c or 38c Ice Lake-SP.

 

[dacostafilipe]

I'm guessing that is hyperbole.

Well, if you can compare Intel 10nm to AMD 7nm supply and state that it's "in full swing" while ignoring Intel 14nm volumes, why can't I say that people are waiting for Zen3 in a forum for pc enthusiasts? I could even say that Zen3 is "in full swing", despite the real issue to get a Zen3 CPU, right?

 

[Hulk]

Which "problem" would you rather have?

Best production capacity but inferior architecture and process.

or

Best architecture and process but limited production capacity.

 

[RasCas99]

Which "problem" would you rather have?

Best production capacity but inferior architecture and process.

or

Best architecture and process but limited production capacity.

Its never black and white , and in this case its better to be the "Best architecture and process but limited production capacity" , thats because once the console craze is over , which is probably 1-2 months away , AMD can pump out 7nm to the rest of the industry as their heart content (or as supply demands) , Intel on the other hand , cannot solve their issues in 1-2 months.

 

[ondma]

Its never black and white , and in this case its better to be the "Best architecture and process but limited production capacity" , thats because once the console craze is over , which is probably 1-2 months away , AMD can pump out 7nm to the rest of the industry as their heart content (or as supply demands) , Intel on the other hand , cannot solve their issues in 1-2 months.

So you are saying that after the consoles die down, AMD would have the capacity from TSMC to supply 70% or more, of the PC market, as intel has now? OK then.
I am not disagreeing that Intel has more serious problems right now than AMD, but I think you are seriously over estimating how many chips AMD could produce.

 

[Hulk]

Its never black and white , and in this case its better to be the "Best architecture and process but limited production capacity" , thats because once the console craze is over , which is probably 1-2 months away , AMD can pump out 7nm to the rest of the industry as their heart content (or as supply demands) , Intel on the other hand , cannot solve their issues in 1-2 months.

I think AMD is in a great position currently. I'd rather have a supply problem (AMD) rather than demand (Intel). Looks like AMD is selling Zen 3 at full list price as well while Intel parts are being deeply discounted, which of course is a consequence of their demand problem and compounds the economic issue since now they are selling less parts and at lower margins.

 

[shady28]

Doesn't look to me like Intel has a demand problem, and margin has been higher the past 2 years than at any time in the preceding 13 years..

 

[dmens]

I think AMD is in a great position currently. I'd rather have a supply problem (AMD) rather than demand (Intel). Looks like AMD is selling Zen 3 at full list price as well while Intel parts are being deeply discounted, which of course is a consequence of their demand problem and compounds the economic issue since now they are selling less parts and at lower margins.

Intel is selling parts at higher margins, essentially they are retreating back into their Xeon castle in accordance to their singular obsession with margin. It looks good on short term financial reports but it also means that when that last castle falls, it is all over, because all that big talk about expanding their TAM and competing in markets other than CPU's looks to be just all bluster.

 

[mikk]

Bob Swan about Alder Lake:

And then to your point, Alder Lake, a very exciting product that we expect to launch for desktop and mobile in the second half of the year. Leveraging our advanced – our SuperFin process technology to your point new microarchitectures for large and small significant gen on gen performance versus Tiger Lake.

So we're looking at the Alder Lake product in the second half of the year being a real exciting product that will help with our industry partners continue to capture on the essential nature of the PC as we go throughout 2021.

Intel Corporation's (INTC) CEO Robert Swan Presents at Credit Suisse 24th Annual Technology Conference (Transcript)

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:INTC) Credit Suisse 24th Annual Technology Conference December 1, 2020 10:00 AM ETCompany ParticipantsRobert Swan - Chief Executive OfficerConference Call...

seekingalpha.com

So they expect both desktop and mobile ADL for next year. It looked like next year ADL would be desktop only but some people claimed Q3 desktop and Q4 mobile.

 

[Zepp]

essentially they are retreating back into their Xeon castle in accordance to their singular obsession with margin. It looks good on short term financial reports but it also means that when that last castle falls, it is all over

that made me imagine season 8 Cersei in the inner castle watching Drogon firebombing the city getting closer and closer.

 

[Hulk]

Doesn't look to me like Intel has a demand problem, and margin has been higher the past 2 years than at any time in the preceding 13 years..

View attachment 34893

View attachment 34895

Those reports are all indicative of business before the release of Zen 3. But of course you may be right and Intel may continue increase margins.

What caused that drop in late 2009/early 2010?

As I've written, we'll know more in 6 months.

 

[shady28]

Those reports are all indicative of business before the release of Zen 3. But of course you may be right and Intel may continue increase margins.

What caused that drop in late 2009/early 2010?

As I've written, we'll know more in 6 months.

The recession. By 2009 Intel had already released Core / Core 2, so they were winning back market share from the earlier Athlon / Opteron gaps, and in Jan 2010 they were releasing their first 32nm products. 2009 was a trough at 35.1B Net -> 43.6 in 2010 -> 54.0 2011.

 

[Hitman928]

Those reports are all indicative of business before the release of Zen 3. But of course you may be right and Intel may continue increase margins.

What caused that drop in late 2009/early 2010?

As I've written, we'll know more in 6 months.

Intel's net margin over the last couple of years has greatly benefited from reduced tax rates and eliminating less profitable operations. Their gross margin isn't so rosy over the last couple of years.

 

[shady28]

Intel's net margin over the last couple of years has greatly benefited from reduced tax rates and eliminating less profitable operations. Their gross margin isn't so rosy over the last couple of years.

View attachment 34940

That's not years that's like 9 months.

Anything you know of happened in the last 9 months that might affect their gross margin? /s

Intel's gross margin actually increased from March 2019 to March 2020.

 

[Hitman928]

That's not years that's like 9 months.

Anything you know of happened in the last 9 months that might affect their gross margin? /s

Intel's gross margin actually increased from March 2019 to March 2020.

That's the last 2 years (Sep 2018 to Sep 2020), you can check it yourself here:

Intel Gross Margin 2010-2023 | INTC

Current and historical gross margin for Intel (INTC) over the last 10 years. The current gross profit margin for Intel as of September 30, 2023 is <strong>%</strong>.

www.macrotrends.net

 

[shady28]

That's the last 2 years (Sep 2018 to Sep 2020), you can check it yourself here:

Intel Gross Margin 2010-2023 | INTC

Current and historical gross margin for Intel (INTC) over the last 10 years. The current gross profit margin for Intel as of September 30, 2023 is <strong>%</strong>.

www.macrotrends.net

Manufacturers were hit harder than non manufacturers is what's affecting *gross* margin. Intel had to shut down plants, restart them, and put in new workplace procedures. AMD is not a manufacturer.

Having said that, the real point in volume is in the very charts you linked to. Example : Intel's increase in revenue (total sold) from Q2 2019 to Q2 2020 was about +$3.2B. AMD's entire revenue stream for Q2 2020 was 1.9B.

Q3, two factors came into play.

AMD is shipping huge quantities for PS5 and Xbox X/S. That's the first statement in their Q3 release, revenue was driven by 'embedded / custom / semi-custom'. That's Xbox / Playstation.

For Intel, Q3 declined. They stated this was due to corporate purchases dropping off and lower margin retail sales becoming a higher percentage of their market. This makes sense, offices are empty and corporations aren't going to go around buying PCs for people who aren't present.

There's no implosion for Intel so far. Seems like people are trying to make a blip after two blowout quarters into something it isn't.