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Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread

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Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
3,030
478
126
I think we are going to see a long tail overlap with RKL and everything that comes after especially on the desktop, presuming it is the last stand for 14nm.

On the PC side, for the broad swath of normal users, RKL will simply be good enough. Since it has Xe graphics it should allow for Intel to support it for an extremely long with their driver packages going forward.

And when it comes down to it, neither Intel nor AMD has that much incentive to focus on desktop CPUs with cutting edge nodes going forward. The real money being on the server side and second to that having power efficiency for mobile. Desktop CPUs have to come in a distant 3rd. As others have well said above, the OEMS are building their desktops to handle 65W-95W CPUs. RKL allows them to just keep using the same components with regards to PSUs and the like. If the global silicon shortage continues (why won't it?) how long will we see these sold?

I am not saying there won't be ADL and follow on desktop releases chasing halo positions, I just expect that even a couple years from now Intel is still going to be selling the market a lot of RKL. Especially if it stays remotely performance per dollar competitive. Will we see a 14nm CPU that uses DDR5? Ha...
I would postulate that the paradigm shift in which mobile CPU's drive the desktop had already happened. Ice Lake went 10nm and with new architecture (Sunny Cove) before the desktop. Actually we are still waiting on the architecture and the process is on the horizon.

Historically most mobile parts have basically been the bests parts of the wafer with the rest going to the desktop. I don't expect this to change so there is no news here as far as AMD or Intel not "focusing on the desktop." They are focused on performance and efficiency first and foremost and have been for a long time, well since Conroe for Intel anyway. Remember Intel had a rule where they had to achieve a certain increase in IPC (or more) for an equal increase in power? Or something like that, I don't remember it exactly.

As for the global silicon shortage. I have a different take on this. A confluence of events caused it. Everybody working/schooling remotely and a flurry of new technologies everybody "had to have" being two of the primary causes (graphics cards, Zen 3, SSD's, cell phones, etc..). Couple this with manufacturing shutting down for a while and there you have the reason we are where we are now. Supply always catches up with demand. We'll see crazy sales due to over-production soon enough. Whenever there is money to be made there is a knee jerk reaction for production to go through the roof and just like there was a lag catching up with demand, there will be a lag slowing down, which will cause an imbalance in supply.
 

ondma

Platinum Member
Mar 18, 2018
2,228
862
106
If OEMs are not the ones buying PSUs that go into OEM machines, who does?
The vast majority of OEM desktops will be made for home/business use, not gaming or encoding. For those relatively moderate uses, six or perhaps even 4 cores will still be more than enough, and performance will be fine with 65 or 95 watt power states enforced.
 

Qwertilot

Golden Member
Nov 28, 2013
1,586
243
106
Supply always catches up with demand. We'll see crazy sales due to over-production soon enough. Whenever there is money to be made there is a knee jerk reaction for production to go through the roof and just like there was a lag catching up with demand, there will be a lag slowing down, which will cause an imbalance in supply.
The thing with silicon wafers, especially the smallest processes, is that the supply is quite fundamentally inelastic. The fab's are so incredibly expensive and take so long to build that there's only quite limited scope to adapt/they basically simply refuse to try and match short term demand spikes.

So we get a temporary supply shortage as opposed to over production/huge subsequent sales.
 

DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
17,431
6,421
136
His argument is about data collection methodology (steam survey), which in global terms is actually more representative than online sales by a German e-tailer. Are you arguing against this (little inconvenient) fact?
Honestly I don't think you understand anything he said.
 

cortexa99

Member
Jul 2, 2018
166
233
86
another pic of SapphireRapids:
dHtYZpjUgWxLFl2.png


also from what I hear, that leaker has some bad track records and he is not trustworthy, except the CPU pics he post seems to be a real SPR ES.
 

Zucker2k

Golden Member
Feb 15, 2006
1,426
762
136
Honestly I don't think you understand anything he said.
Steam data methodology is unknown. We know exactly how Mindfactory gets its numbers. I agree Mindfactory numbers should be used carefully and the source of the numbers understood and we shouldn't be trying to extrapolate beyond Mindfactory's market, but at least we know how the numbers are generated. Even steam numbers I think have some value but should not be used at face value or as an accurate representation of market share numbers at any given period of time.
What is so difficult for you to understand about this? And his treatment of steam data is clearly with some value, which is clearly against what you stated.
Absolutely. Steam survey data is about as bad as a web poll.
 

blckgrffn

Diamond Member
May 1, 2003
7,937
1,125
126
www.teamjuchems.com
The thing with silicon wafers, especially the smallest processes, is that the supply is quite fundamentally inelastic. The fab's are so incredibly expensive and take so long to build that there's only quite limited scope to adapt/they basically simply refuse to try and match short term demand spikes.

So we get a temporary supply shortage as opposed to over production/huge subsequent sales.
This is my take as well - and there is a huge spike in demand for silicon for things like cars and automobiles. There were some articles out there about how nation states (probably including the US) leaned on TSMC and Samsung, I believe, to reallocate wafers very recently to automotive suppliers due to the importance of automobile manufacturing to a nations economy. I don't think this is at all pandemic dependent but rather a new normal that will persist given the increasing number of chips for everything that is needed, from IoT devices on upwards in the value chain. These items have shorter service lives compared to a number of items they are replacing, imo. I expect that either Sony or MS might already be planning their next console bump, for example. Other items like refrigerators and washers and driers are all absorbing tech as well and I can only imagine where this is all headed.

In any case, there are many industries (automotive, aerospace, medical, super computing) that are likely to get backing from on high to get priority for silicon that will exacerbate the production markets inability to meet consumer demand. All it takes is a little blip on the international stage for Taiwan to even be knocked off kilter for a few days/weeks and the crazy supply chain logistics will make it insane. That's a different thread completely but I think it plays into the fact that Intel will be looking for ways to keep 14nm plus infinity hot, adding to their balance sheet and available to them when it is needed.

And the lowest silicon priority of all, I think, are desktop PCs being sold for $300 to $1k. How long will 14nm be available to buy in a new, name brand PC? 2 years? 3? 5? :) (As a CPU, not as a chipset. Even many of those volume chipsets were backported to 22nm recently!)
 

Hitman928

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2012
3,569
3,908
136
AMD is already making x86 better than Intel. If Intel does not enter the ARM market, they will inevitably end, they are no longer monopolists.
What makes you think Intel can compete against the many ARM design houses any better than they can compete against AMD? If they went to ARM, they would have much more competition, not less. AMD could just as easily go ARM as well so it's not like they would gain anything by going ARM. Intel will only go ARM if they absolutely have to, not at all by choice.
 
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
17,431
6,421
136
Would you please just shut up about this stuff. It's pointless bickering. @DrMrLordX - please stop responding. This isn't the graphics sub-forum :p
He wants to use Steam data as some bogus juxtaposition and I'm actively telling him not to do so. I know it's not the graphics forum. What else do you want me to do?
 

Ajay

Diamond Member
Jan 8, 2001
8,896
3,591
136
Hmm, are Ice Lake SP and Sapphire Rapids coming at the same time. I mean, we already have a de-lid of Sapphire; I haven't seen one of Ice Lake (then again, I may have missed it).
I'm also super curious about what that FPGA is doing. Is it for special function acceleration or critical CPU/IO functions?
 

jpiniero

Diamond Member
Oct 1, 2010
9,546
2,025
136
Hmm, are Ice Lake SP and Sapphire Rapids coming at the same time.
Ice Lake Server is shipping now, but who knows about how much volume and if you would even be able to buy one of the higher core count versions. But there's been talk that they will keep it on the market past Sapphire's launch hoping that yields will improve enough that they will be able to sell Icelake in real volume sometime in 2022 while Saphhire is simply the very high end.
 

Ajay

Diamond Member
Jan 8, 2001
8,896
3,591
136
Ice Lake Server is shipping now, but who knows about how much volume and if you would even be able to buy one of the higher core count versions. But there's been talk that they will keep it on the market past Sapphire's launch hoping that yields will improve enough that they will be able to sell Icelake in real volume sometime in 2022 while Saphhire is simply the very high end.
Thanks, I sure was out of the loop on that. At least, as @coercitiv noted, Sapphire Rapids look to be a very interesting CPU.
 

yuri69

Member
Jul 16, 2013
126
144
116
So we are looking at 1672mm2 + Altera 10M16.

This is a behemoth given the comparable 7nm AMD Rome is 1008mm2 and the cringy 14nm Cascade Lake-AP is 1396mm2.

Both ALD and SPR are looking bold and interesting.

Those Genoa leaks can't come soon enough.
 

Abwx

Diamond Member
Apr 2, 2011
9,146
990
126
How many cores in one die?
56 cores for the whole SKU according to NBC.

 

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