Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread

[ondma]

I am hoping for 10nm desktop parts and some 16C HEDT with possible more than 4 mem channels (or server)
I wonder what one API brings to the business, maybe more of shared CPU/GPU resources for general desktop computing....

Problem is 10 nm so far has not shown much if any decrease in power consumption, so they are still going battle heat and power consumption on more than 8 cores.

 

[ondma]

"10nm yield ahead of expectations… accelerating transition with nine product releases in 2020 "

Interesting how someone already 4 years late can use the word accelerating.

Acceleration is acceleration no matter when it starts.

 

[krumme]

Thank you for the business analysis, but what do you think the accelerated 10nm products are?

I dont know. My take on it is, its stakeholder communication saying we are track whatever the realities is.
Anyways. What matters for financial results is, how your cashcows are flowing and performing - not the future potential stars. Goes for all business.
Dont underestimate the part of the business that is outside of the physical product. Eg. Intels sales organization is aparently extremely competent in supplying competence, knowledge and concept to not only reduce their customers TCO but also support their long term goals. They sell business.
It's very difficult to build such organization, and I think Lisa and Amd just realized they needed some new people here.

 

[geegee83]

I seams Jim Keller is wasting his time with Tremont:
What's Significant about Intel Tremont?

Which is an huge disappointment, was he hired by the intel marketing?

Maybe he’s using his time there because it is good? There was an Anandtech article on its innovations.

I find him highly knowledgeable in so many parts of ICs design. This presentation is a gem:

 

[coercitiv]

Intel is for the most part in a monopoly market so when they are supply constrained, and demand is fairly stable, prices, asp and revenue goes up.

Very well put, and the followup post is also on point.

One thing to add though: while in the short term supply constrained equals higher revenue for Intel, it does not necessarily mean the same for OEMs. So while Intel would only feel the pain after another node flop, system integrators might already be under pressure to insure this type of situation doesn't happen again. Intel borderline lying about 10nm progress in the past won't help ease their fear either.

This may have long term consequences even if Intel turns the ship around with late 10nm / 7nm.

 

[mikk]

Bob said:

• Tigerlake
• Snow Ridge SoC
• First dGPU
• Xeon for DC, Storage and Networking
• AI ASICs

and I assume more, since thats 7.

Lakefield and Elkhart Lake/Jasper Lake. I know they were announced in 2019 but till now they are not available in the market, so Intel might count these for 2020.

 

[lobz]

Accelerated? Are they releasing an own-branded metamphetamine called The Keller SpeedStep?
Also, just in time.

 

[Richie Rich]

Acceleration is acceleration no matter when it starts.

That's not exact. If you accelerate from zero, you have always high acceleration with smaller input power. Acceleration from high speed is way harder. That's valid for physics as well as for development. When Intel was almost 4 years static it makes sense they are talking about acceleration now.

 

[RetroZombie]

Maybe he’s using his time there because it is good? There was an Anandtech article on its innovations.

The guy is superb and at all levels.

Problem is like the video you linked, and unfortunately since he joined intel from day one it's interviews, videos, presentations, ... and not only him, Raja too.

Like if he had anything to do with those products, because he didn't work at intel at that time. Pretty sure intel with so many employees could have asked someone else to do it....

Three or four years after he joined intel, ok he could do all those.

 

[uzzi38]

You know it's a slow news day when people are debating the meaning of the word acceleration.

Anywho, some much better Gen12 graphics scores popped up:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1220817759229087745

 

[Bouowmx]

Still needs a lot of work; not even half of GeForce GTX 1050 Ti (average score: 33000).

 

[RetroZombie]

Acceleration is acceleration no matter when it starts.

It already started so many times it must be warp level by now.

 

[Adonisds]

I think it was in this thread about 2 months ago that someone said they've never been so sure about shorting a stock as INTC at that time. Well, the stock is up 19% since then

 

[Dayman1225]

I think it was in this thread about 2 months ago that someone said they've never been so sure about shorting a stock as INTC at that time. Well, the stock is up 19% since then

Wall Street works in wonderful ways

 

[Intel Inside]

:legal: https://www.weibo.com/1502169164/InC0psE7Y?type=comment

 

[Adonisds]

:legal: https://www.weibo.com/1502169164/InC0psE7Y?type=comment

Could someone explain this? Why is google translate so bad for Chinese?

 

[jpiniero]

I think it was in this thread about 2 months ago that someone said they've never been so sure about shorting a stock as INTC at that time. Well, the stock is up 19% since then

That's the stock buyback for ya.

Bob did say that they were expecting earnings this year to be front loaded. Which I find strange.

 

[Intel Inside]

You know it's a slow news day when people are debating the meaning of the word acceleration.

Anywho, some much better Gen12 graphics scores popped up:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1220817759229087745

Help translate this pls. https://www.weibo.com/1502169164/InC0psE7Y?type=comment

 

[OriAr]

Help translate this pls. https://www.weibo.com/1502169164/InC0psE7Y?type=comment

From what I understand after CML-S and RKL-S on LGA 1200, ADL-S follows on LGA 1700, and it's gonna be fabbed at 10+++nm.
Then he speculates the reason for the increase in the pin count is next gen I/O such as DDR5 and PCIE gen 5.

DDR5 is reasonable, PCIE gen 5 would be a very pleasant surprise though.

 

[lobz]

Acceleration is acceleration no matter when it starts.

Has it ever occured to you, that everything is always on track, quarter to quarter, for like 3 straight years in a row? From now on, the acceleration itself can be on track too in every call 🤣 - so simple, they just have to change/postpone things on the roadmap between quarterly reports, so in every earnings call everything is always on track. Now, if the investors are OK with this, fine. Good times for speculators

 

[lobz]

Very well put, and the followup post is also on point.

One thing to add though: while in the short term supply constrained equals higher revenue for Intel, it does not necessarily mean the same for OEMs. So while Intel would only feel the pain after another node flop, system integrators might already be under pressure to insure this type of situation doesn't happen again. Intel borderline lying about 10nm progress in the past won't help ease their fear either.

This may have long term consequences even if Intel turns the ship around with late 10nm / 7nm.

Very well put. One thing though, intel is not borderline lying. Intel is lying week to week for 3 years now about 10nm. They are just doing it so, that it is borderline legal.

 

[Markfw]

Has it ever occured to you, that everything is always on track, quarter to quarter, for like 3 straight years in a row? From now on, the acceleration itself can be on track too in every call 🤣 - so simple, they just have to change/postpone things on the roadmap between quarterly reports, so in every earnings call everything is always on track. Now, if the investors are OK with this, fine. Good times for speculators

I was talking to a friend who left Intel 5 years ago. He just keeps pointing to the stock prices, and says he is happy. I told him about my EPYC processors, and he says "sounds good", but denies anything is wrong at Intel, because the stock price is good.

 

[lobz]

That's not exact. If you accelerate from zero, you have always high acceleration with smaller input power. Acceleration from high speed is way harder. That's valid for physics as well as for development. When Intel was almost 4 years static it makes sense they are talking about acceleration now.

You made a post, that almost made sense for a change! To me, at least. I have one objection though, to your last sentence. For anyone who'd want to invest in intel in mid-term, it has to be VERY concerning, that they're just starting to accelerate when BS told now they would.

 

[lobz]

I was talking to a friend who left Intel 5 years ago. He just keeps pointing to the stock prices, and says he is happy. I told him about my EPYC processors, and he says "sounds good", but denies anything is wrong at Intel, because the stock price is good.

This friend of yours is either a happy stock holder who's planning on pulling out cash very soon, or someone who's in for a very dire surprise 1-2 years in from now.

 

[lobz]

Still needs a lot of work; not even half of GeForce GTX 1050 Ti (average score: 33000).

Yes, but still, this is intel integrated graphics wihtout eDRAM. I'm actually impressed that they pulled at least this off