Again, this is not about whether 10nm is functional or not, it's about whether or not Intel's 10nm capacity & yields are able to offset the huge 14nm demand they're seeing, so huge they are publicly apologizing, so huge that Dell is forced to announce they're missing financial targets. […] But I never imagined Intel would not be able to satisfy 14nm demand in Q4 2019. That was quite the shock for me, and I already mentioned I take it as a lesson, not as a critique to Intel.
Slightly OT, but I think it is worth commenting on this. "Demand" will increasingly be used by Intel as a smokescreen for their manufacturing issues.
The real picture is that Intel manufacturing is unable to supply a declining PC market, partly because of major manufacturing problems (the 10nm debacle, in particular), huge commitments to Apple on modem production, as well as the relentless progress by AMD towards more cores and more performance, increasing the required wafer capacity to produce the same number of chips. This competitive pressure has led Intel to overextend themselves, resulting in failure to fulfil commitments, and subsequently, in the public apology and filing of the 8-K report.
Remember, demand is not the same as growth. Obviously, there is "demand" when customers get on the phone to Intel demanding something is done to fix shipment delays. But this does not mean that the purchase orders are any bigger, though. As broadly reported, and admitted in their public letter, Intel has problems fulfilling
existing purchase plans and commitments, causing delays.
Regarding claimed strength in the PC market, it is basically a slower decline than previously forecasted. IDC is now projecting a flat 2019 (+0.5%), which is slightly better than earlier projections. There is some effect from Windows 7 end-of-life, and there are some segments that are growing, such as 2-in-1 and slim notebooks, content creation and gaming. But overall, the PC market is still forecasted to shrink 2.6% per year in the period 2019-2023. Much of that decline is attributed to slower tablet sales, though.
"On the heels of strong growth during the third quarter of 2019 (3Q19) and changing dynamics in the market for personal computing devices (PCDs), International Data Corporation (IDC) has raised its outlook for the remainder of 2019. According to a new forecast from the Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker, overall PCD shipments will reach 407.7 million by the end of 2019, up 0.5% from 2018. However, despite this recent growth, long-term forecasts remain negative as the market will dip to 366.7 million units in 2023 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -2.6% from 2019–2023. […] Though other form factors such as traditional desktops and notebooks will continue to decline, IDC anticipates a growing share of those form factors will cater to emerging demand for creator PCs as well as sustained demand for gaming PCs."
idc.com
Personal Computing Device Forecast, 2019-2023 (shipments in millions)
| | | | | |
Product
| 2019 Shipments*
| 2019 Share*
| 2023 Shipments*
| 2023 Share*
| 2019-2023 CAGR
|
2-in-1
| 50.5
| 12.4%
| 72.4
| 19.7%
| 9.4%
|
Desktop + Desktop Workstation
| 93.8
| 23.0%
| 76.5
| 20.9%
| -5.0%
|
Notebook + Mobile Workstation
| 74.9
| 18.4%
| 50.3
| 13.7%
| -9.5%
|
Slate Tablet
| 107.0
| 26.3%
| 67.3
| 18.3%
| -11.0%
|
Ultraslim
| 81.4
| 20.0%
| 100.3
| 27.3%
| 5.3%
|
Total
| 407.7
| 100.0%
| 366.7
| 100.0%
| -2.6% |
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