While they are practically selling everything they make right, they must capture larger shares of the market. For their long-term survival and health, they can't let Intel control 80% - 93% of the respective markets. If they continue to do that, they would be one relatively bad design to end right back where they were with Bulldozer/Piledriver.
You expect too much, and you fear too much. I think AMD is growing plenty fast in absolute terms — 45% year-on-year revenue growth is way ahead of their financial model of 20% CAGR. And for company strength and resiliency, solid execution and steady growth is the way to go. Like CEO Lisa Su likes to say: This is a journey.
The slight loss of market share last quarter is solely due to the crazy demand and unexpected 20.1% growth of the x86 market. AMD did well to capture as much of this unexpected growth as they did. It is amazing that AMD's share wasn't smaller, when you consider how much the unexpected demand added in terms of unit volume:
"New record highs for total processor revenues were set for both Q4 and 2020, and Q4 set a new record high for quarterly unit shipments, which were more than 125 million units in the quarter," said Dean McCarron of Mercury Research. Intel obviously captured more of that growth in the quarter than AMD, but it's important to remember that a slight loss of share in the midst of an explosive growth environment doesn't equate to declining sales — AMD grew its processor revenue by 50% last year and posted record financial results for the year. It also shipped more than a million Ryzen 5000 processors in the quarter, according to McCarron research.
Intel Claws Back Desktop PC and Notebook Market Share From AMD, First Time in Three Years | Tom's Hardware
21.7% share of 125 million units is ~27 million AMD CPUs sold in the quarter! And year-over-year the share is up 6.2 percentage points. With the most competitive product portfolio ever, growing wafer supply and presumably normalising market conditions, what do you think 2021-Q4 is going to look like? I am in no doubt AMD will continue to grow in absolute terms. Lisa Su is targeting 37% revenue growth this year. What the x86 market will do, remains to be seen.
PS. Despite the fact that many PC enthusiasts are unable to buy product, and are wrongly assuming that empty shelves means no sales, the Ryzen 5000 sales ramp is the fastest in Ryzen's history, according to Lisa Su on the recent earnings call:
"Sell-through of our new Ryzen 5000 processors featuring our Zen 3 core was particularly strong, more than doubling the launch quarter sales of any prior generation Ryzen desktop processor."
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q4 2020 Earnings Call Transcript (fool.com)