TSMC is expanding 7 nm and 5 nm capacity, but only so much can be done without building a whole new fab which would obviously take way too long to do now to have a meaningful impact. From what I've heard, though, 3 nm should bring a substantial increase in available supply.
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'Intel Claws Back Desktop PC and Notebook Market Share From AMD for the First Time in Three Years' - Tom's
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TSMC is expanding 7 nm and 5 nm capacity, but only so much can be done without building a whole new fab which would obviously take way too long to do now to have a meaningful impact. From what I've heard, though, 3 nm should bring a substantial increase in available supply.
UsandThem
Elite Member
I've read they are expanding fabs based on future demand, but that will take years.
Hopefully the smaller nodes will be enough for all the players in short-term increase in demand. I imagine 10-15 years ago, TSMC would have never imagined they'd have this "problem" in selling absolutely everything they can make.
There is definitelly a shortage, however if e.g. 95% of demand would be satisfied, those frustrated 5% would be noisy similarly as 30% would be. It is hard to tell how severe the shortage is.
At least here if somebody really wanted one he got it, with some paying attention and/or waiting.
That's pretty much TSMC's business model in a nutshell. When they build a fab they are expecting to be full or nearly full for a long time. Something like half of their revenue is on ancient nodes.
That's simply not true in my market. At least in Canada, a person randomly going to a website or popping into a computer store will not see a Zen 3. People are camping twitch stock track streams waiting for 5900X's to come in and are still waiting weeks, and people are still waiting on 2020 backorders to arrive. The last tracked 5900X drop that shipped (not just stock sold in local stores) was January 6th. The stock situation on the 5950X is even worse.
The 5800X has stock pop up the most often, but even it's gone immediately. The 5600X also comes in and out, but it's harder to find. The one source that seems reasonably reliable it to a stock tracker for the Newegg bundles that come up every couple days, and then pay 5% over MSRP and try to flip an overpriced PSU without losing too much money.
That's not a normal stock situation.
The 5800X has stock pop up the most often, but even it's gone immediately. The 5600X also comes in and out, but it's harder to find. The one source that seems reasonably reliable it to a stock tracker for the Newegg bundles that come up every couple days, and then pay 5% over MSRP and try to flip an overpriced PSU without losing too much money.
That's not a normal stock situation.
itsmydamnation
Diamond Member
Sorry but your just pretty much completely wrong, you really don't actually understand what was changed with Zen3 do you? All the things that are big and expensive ( power , area, clock etc) and hard to increase stayed the same size as Zen 2. They effectively optimised the contented cases this is very different from skylake to willowcove which saw much growth and increase in power ( thus rocket lake only going to 8 cores etc).
willowcove vs Zen3
L1D 48kb 12way vs 32kb 8 way
L1i 32kb 8 way vs 32kb 8 way
decoders 5 vs 4
uop 2304 vs 4096
allocate/dispatch 5 vs 6
ROB 352 vs 256
PRF int 180 vs 192
PRF FP 168 vs 160
ALU's 4 vs 4
AGU's 4 vs 3
Load/Store 4 vs 3
load buffer 128 vs 44
storage buffer 72 vs 64
Willowcove has a bigger OOOe window , larger load/storage queues , more L/S bandwidth and more L1 cache. The Core on 10nm physically is much larger then Zen3 as well. All this for less performance per clock ( on average).
So please tell me again how your original claim is even remotely correct?
We're typically used to having products on shelves, but it's good to hear that people who invest a little bit of time into obtaining one are able to do so, particularly without having to pay the scalper's price. Hopefully we start to see the availability last a little bit longer as time goes by just so people don't need to camp out a store or a website quite so aggressively, but with AMD in the top position demand is also going to be higher than ever before so I'm not too worried about their long term prospects, particularly when Intel isn't going to be able to punish AMD's position in the near term.
I've been trying to get a 5950x for months. I have the stockdrops discord open 8+ hours a day while I'm working and it's MAYBE once a week that some retailer has them, and they always sell out in under a minute. I managed to order one from walmart.com in december but they ended up canceling the order because they couldn't fulfill it.
Since jan 28 there have been less than 10 total drops posted in that discord for the entire 5000 series lineup. I also check microcenter daily and haven't seen anything in stock for weeks.
This is not a "very slightly more demand than supply" situation
NTMBK
Lifer
God no. Let that turd of an architecture die. Carrizo was bad when it launched, and it's appalling now.
From the article/interview on this site they are having problems getting enough substrates and assembly thanks to covid. I'm not so sure it's a die problem as a rest of the line problem. Apple has the supply chain down to a fine art.
CHADBOGA
Platinum Member
Apple signed up for a guaranteed amount of wafers, and it appears AMD weren't as confident with demand for their product, to do something similar.
UsandThem
Elite Member
I don't really follow Apple products, but it appears not everything is going smoothly in that regard (although AMD is harder hit than Apple in whatever their shortages/production issues are).
https://www.notebookcheck.net/TSMC-...amsung-could-jump-to-the-rescue.503905.0.html
Honestly, in normal year (which 2020-2021 hasn't been) AMD would be able to overcome the product shortages within 1-2 months of a CPU launch. However, with the high demand of TSMC putting out every wafer they can produce, and supply constraints all across the industry, AMD is struggling to ship more product.
There are shortages right now in just about everything (power supplies, GPUs, consoles, toys, etc) that are made in China, Taiwan, etc. Some of the Star Wars things I buy/watch have had their production delayed 12 months or longer, so AMD is not alone in these issues.
zir_blazer
Golden Member
I recall that back during 2005 when the Athlons 64 X2 were in full force and AMD was dominating Intel, its marketshare was effectively capped to 20% or so due to capacity constrains, as there was no way for AMD to fully cover the market demands for its Processors, so many people ended up purchasing Intel as the second choice just due availability. By the time Fab 36 had just kicked in, Conroe was just months away, causing AMD marketshare and the needs for another fab fell accordingly.
Moral of the history: If you are going to spend billions to dramatically increase your production capacity, make sure that your next product is going to maintain the advantage margins and that your competition doesn't catchs up and go beyond you in a single generation.
Moral of the history: If you are going to spend billions to dramatically increase your production capacity, make sure that your next product is going to maintain the advantage margins and that your competition doesn't catchs up and go beyond you in a single generation.
Vattila
Senior member
You expect too much, and you fear too much. I think AMD is growing plenty fast in absolute terms — 45% year-on-year revenue growth is way ahead of their financial model of 20% CAGR. And for company strength and resiliency, solid execution and steady growth is the way to go. Like CEO Lisa Su likes to say: This is a journey.
The slight loss of market share last quarter is solely due to the crazy demand and unexpected 20.1% growth of the x86 market. AMD did well to capture as much of this unexpected growth as they did. It is amazing that AMD's share wasn't smaller, when you consider how much the unexpected demand added in terms of unit volume:
"New record highs for total processor revenues were set for both Q4 and 2020, and Q4 set a new record high for quarterly unit shipments, which were more than 125 million units in the quarter," said Dean McCarron of Mercury Research. Intel obviously captured more of that growth in the quarter than AMD, but it's important to remember that a slight loss of share in the midst of an explosive growth environment doesn't equate to declining sales — AMD grew its processor revenue by 50% last year and posted record financial results for the year. It also shipped more than a million Ryzen 5000 processors in the quarter, according to McCarron research.
Intel Claws Back Desktop PC and Notebook Market Share From AMD, First Time in Three Years | Tom's Hardware
21.7% share of 125 million units is ~27 million AMD CPUs sold in the quarter! And year-over-year the share is up 6.2 percentage points. With the most competitive product portfolio ever, growing wafer supply and presumably normalising market conditions, what do you think 2021-Q4 is going to look like? I am in no doubt AMD will continue to grow in absolute terms. Lisa Su is targeting 37% revenue growth this year. What the x86 market will do, remains to be seen.
PS. Despite the fact that many PC enthusiasts are unable to buy product, and are wrongly assuming that empty shelves means no sales, the Ryzen 5000 sales ramp is the fastest in Ryzen's history, according to Lisa Su on the recent earnings call:
"Sell-through of our new Ryzen 5000 processors featuring our Zen 3 core was particularly strong, more than doubling the launch quarter sales of any prior generation Ryzen desktop processor."
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q4 2020 Earnings Call Transcript (fool.com)
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UsandThem
Elite Member
I never said they were hurting , I said it's not good to give up market share to Intel after 3 years of gaining market share.
Intel is being very aggressive on their pricing with their 10th gen products, and they are readily available.
Like the previous poster said, if AMD is unable to supply product needed, OEMs (and some end users) will go with Intel. Is the supply issues going to suddenly get better for AMD in the next 3-12 months since TSMC can't supply any more wafers? Maybe.....maybe not.
Vattila
Senior member
Look at it this way: AMD targets 37% revenue growth this year, well ahead of analysts' previous projections. Assuming that the wafer capacity requirements for that growth are proportional to the current needs, this means that they believe they can secure 37% additional wafer capacity as well. That seems pretty aggressive to me.
Faster growth sounds great. But like I've said before, I would be content with a steady 20% CAGR in line with their financial model.
I have no doubt AMD has supply visibility to support their growth target. They already have a ~$3B purchase commitment on their books, if I remember correctly.
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VirtualLarry
No Lifer
I just ordered an i5-10400F from Newegg (Ideabuy) for $149.99. 6C/12T CPU, no IGPU, 4.2Ghz clock or thereabouts, competes pretty well with Ryzen 5 3600. Less L3 cache than AMD, of course, but fully 25% cheaper.
Edit: Sad thing is, the R5 3600 WAS as low as $155 a year or so ago. At that price it would be a no-brainer to go AMD AM4.
UsandThem
Elite Member
Yup, that's AMD issue for now, and those are the current retail pricing. I can only imagine Intel is selling a lot of CPUs for a fair amount less than that to companies like Dell, HP, etc. A lot of PC deals posted on Slickdeals all have 10400 and 10700 CPUs (with some of the high-end builds offering 10900k or 10850k CPUs).
For every Markfw out there who's willing to preorder a CPU in November, and still willing to wait on it coming, there's a person who just wants to be able to buy a CPU without watching a stock tracker or mashing F5. And looking at Nowinstock about 20 minutes ago, it looks like Newegg had the 5600x, 5800x, and 5900x in stock for seconds before they were sold out.
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TheELF
Diamond Member
If ZEN 3 could make the same amounts of sales with 8 EUs (like skylake has) instead of 14 they would have no savings in space on wafer AT ALL?!?!
Let's talk about the elephant in the room though, L3 cache on ZEN3 takes about half the die size and is basically the same size of the cores while on comet lake it's just some small strips.
Intel Launches 10th Gen Comet Lake Desktop Processors
Intel launches 10th Generation Core desktop processors, formerly codename Comet Lake. The new lineup brings 22 new chips with up to 10 cores and 20 threads with turbo frequencies of up to 5.3 GHz.
fuse.wikichip.org
AMD Ryzen 5000 Zen 3 'Vermeer' Undressed, First Ever High-Res Die Shots Close Ups Pictured & Detailed
AMD's Ryzen 5000 Zen 3 Desktop CPU codenamed 'Vermeer' has recieved its first ever high-res die shots which have also been fully detailed.
wccftech.com
Also if you could share your source of where you look up the sizes and the power draw of each specific thing for each fab that would be great.
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Gideon
Platinum Member
Zen 3 core is only 14% bigger than Zen 2 which is absolutely drop in the bucked comapred to the size of the entire CPU (including your mentioned L3), particularily in APUs.
It's just a tiny-bit longer in one axis for 19% IPC increase and higher clocks for same power draw on the same node.
And here is Zen 2 entire compute die vs Zen 3 (these are NOT to scale):
I would like to see how Cypress Cove compares to Skylake on 14nm but my guess is it's nowhere near as small of an increase for about the same IPC uplift.
Why is Intel releasing the "terrible terrible" Rocket Lake with added execution units, if Comet Lake is so much better?
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DrMrLordX
Lifer
I mean that may be representative of what's going on elsewhere in the OEM markets, but realistically speaking I don't think Intel is gaining all that market share on the back of DiY sales.
That's more in line with what I was thinking. Demand for PCs in general saw its first uptick in years. People are willing to keep buying 14nm stuff if it means having something to buy.
That's really up to TSMC, but as long as their margins continue to improve, they can pull an "Apple lite" and just slowly work their way towards long-term prosperity. Especially given that nobody in the x86 world seems prepared to compete with them right now.
therealmongo
Member
What I would like to know is how many did you send back because they did not fulfil your expectations...
UsandThem
Elite Member
OMG, I forgot about all of that since I don't post in most CPU threads.
No wonder they stated they bought 11 or 12 of them already, lol! 😛
therealmongo
Member
It's best to laugh, but really we should be crying.
Imagine if there are thousands of people worldwide who act in this manner.
Of course there are going to be shortages and along with those, higher prices, as the costs of returned product is simply shifted to the consumers....
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