News Intel CFO: Our 10nm Will Be Less Profitable than 22nm

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moinmoin

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2017
4,993
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Is this the first time Intel has been this clear about the state of their 10nm node as well as having lost their process node leadership?


“Look, this just isn't going to be the best node that Intel has ever had. It's going to be less productive than 14 [nanometer], less productive than 22 [nanometer] … The fact is, like I said, it isn't going to be as strong a node as people would expect from 14nm or what they'll see in 7nm.”

"we feel like we're starting to see the acceleration on the process side that we have been talking about to get back to, you know, parity in the 7nm generation and regain leadership in the 5nm [generation]"


Bonus: Intel expected AMD to grab more of the server market sooner.
"I think we, we've said we expect to see stronger competitive dynamics in the second half of this year. But what we've seen, we actually thought we would see some of that a little bit sooner. And what we've seen is, again, very strong demand for our leading edge products. ... But we do see rising competition, we plan for that, as we talked about our forecast, that they'll be share impacts that we'll have to absorb within that. And then as we look at our product roadmap over time, we think again, we start to present an even more compelling competitive position as we go into 7nm and 5nm."
 

dmens

Platinum Member
Mar 18, 2005
2,271
917
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They will. I see you a fanboy but if you think Intel isn't going to come back you are sadly mistaken.

They still the #1 in the industry. Their Moore's Law was the example until it couldn't be again.

Believe your own hype. While AMD been doing good, Intel has the talent, resources, and money to do it. Could care less of what you think, but instead what will happen.

🥴

Pro-tip: maybe you ought to listen to people who actually do semiconductor engineering for a living.

Until then, peace out.
 

maddie

Diamond Member
Jul 18, 2010
4,786
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Wow, that wasnt the tone of this forum when Keller went to AMD.
Honestly, I can't remember that. No one was talking about AMD beating Intel and it was only until info started leaking out about Zen that members started to get excited.
 

scannall

Golden Member
Jan 1, 2012
1,947
1,638
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Wow, that wasnt the tone of this forum when Keller went to AMD.
Not really. Keller is a talented guy, sure. But he has never been the lead architect on Zen. He did bring tools to AMD that they lacked, but he was mostly brought on for the canceled ARM cores. When you actually get a 'talent' it's a good thing of course. But it isn't a defining thing. Much of Zen's success is due to Mike Clark, Suzanne Plummer and a host of other very talented people. It isn't one person. Hasn't been for a few decades.
 

Markeyse

Member
Feb 9, 2020
112
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🥴

Pro-tip: maybe you ought to listen to people who actually do semiconductor engineering for a living.

Until then, peace out.
Probably not you with those sorry excuse of a prediction!

Wow, that wasnt the tone of this forum when Keller went to AMD.

Some people believe in their own hype!

Lets be real. Intel stuck on Monolithic designs. That is the old way of doing things. Keller responsible for the Chiplet design AMD use today for their Zen processors. It is a very modular design, and cheaper to produce. Now Intel has him, and a great team, with a head start on 3DStacking and Foveros! So in a year or two we will see two great companies battle it out.
 

Markeyse

Member
Feb 9, 2020
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Not really. Keller is a talented guy, sure. But he has never been the lead architect on Zen. He did bring tools to AMD that they lacked, but he was mostly brought on for the canceled ARM cores. When you actually get a 'talent' it's a good thing of course. But it isn't a defining thing. Much of Zen's success is due to Mike Clark, Suzanne Plummer and a host of other very talented people. It isn't one person. Hasn't been for a few decades.

If AMD "Lacked" something, then that means that man was somewhat of a big deal.
 

scannall

Golden Member
Jan 1, 2012
1,947
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If AMD "Lacked" something, then that means that man was somewhat of a big deal.
Not saying he did nothing. The toolsets were important. New tools is something Intel is unlikely to adopt in their current culture however. NIH is a big thing there. I am not suggesting the Intel is doomed. Or that they will go the way of the Dodo. But it won't be as easy as scribbling a note over a latte at Starbucks.
 

TheELF

Diamond Member
Dec 22, 2012
3,990
744
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Not saying he did nothing. The toolsets were important. New tools is something Intel is unlikely to adopt in their current culture however. NIH is a big thing there. I am not suggesting the Intel is doomed. Or that they will go the way of the Dodo. But it won't be as easy as scribbling a note over a latte at Starbucks.
Intel has doubled their net income ever since ZEN came out...DOOOOOOMED!!!
Intel doesn't care if they are behind in tech,quite the opposite doubling their net income with old tech is the best thing that ever happened to any tech company.
(And yes intel believes that 10nm will return them to about 10bil hence their statement)

YPTeKjm.jpg
 

awesomedeluxe

Member
Feb 12, 2020
69
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Intel has doubled their net income ever since ZEN came out...DOOOOOOMED!!!
Intel doesn't care if they are behind in tech,quite the opposite doubling their net income with old tech is the best thing that ever happened to any tech company.
(And yes intel believes that 10nm will return them to about 10bil hence their statement)

I don't think anyone thinks Intel is doomed as a company. They are just increasingly less relevant in the market segments we care about.

Intel is already losing the desktop space. They still have some critical advantages in power management that keep them top dog in mobile, but AMD is on track to close the gap here before Intel gets off of the disastrous 10nm node. For consumers, AMD is the exciting company that is constantly delivering technology improvements Intel has starved us of for years.
 
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Markfw

Moderator Emeritus, Elite Member
May 16, 2002
25,727
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I don't think anyone thinks Intel is doomed as a company. They are just increasingly less relevant in the market segments we care about.

Intel is already losing the desktop space. They still have some critical advantages in power management that keep them top dog in mobile, but AMD is on track to close the gap here before Intel gets off of the disastrous 10nm node. For consumers, AMD is the exciting company that is constantly delivering technology improvements Intel has starved us of for years.
Not to mention the server space. They are loosing there, slower, but loosing. I think once that takes off, AMD will have quite the advantage.
 
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Ajay

Lifer
Jan 8, 2001
16,028
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You are being too rational. Intel is run by a patronage system. The middle executives all have a patron senior executive. People don't get fired due to bad performance, they get fired because their patron also got fired, or the patron himself lost his support system. All the executives belong to clans for protection. They act like a prison gang.

Besides, they all know Intel is too big to fail suddenly, and the executives are paid very well. What incentive do they have to do anything besides milking the cow and taking the golden parachute?
Geez, that's awful - not that I haven’t experienced this in one company I worked at. I read that Murthy is really on board with the C suite's efforts to stop this, but that down level manager are very resistant to change. I don’t know what kind of carrot and stick would fix that. Keller is breaking up the large design groups into smaller ‘modular' units. He’s trying to decoupled teams as much as possible to speed up execution. Don’t know if that will have any affect on management in the design groups. Obviously, Intel has a big hill to climb.