News Intel CFO: Our 10nm Will Be Less Profitable than 22nm

[moinmoin]

Is this the first time Intel has been this clear about the state of their 10nm node as well as having lost their process node leadership?

Intel CFO: Our 10nm Will Be Less Profitable than 22nm [Morgan Stanley Transcription]

www.anandtech.com

“Look, this just isn't going to be the best node that Intel has ever had. It's going to be less productive than 14 [nanometer], less productive than 22 [nanometer] … The fact is, like I said, it isn't going to be as strong a node as people would expect from 14nm or what they'll see in 7nm.”

"we feel like we're starting to see the acceleration on the process side that we have been talking about to get back to, you know, parity in the 7nm generation and regain leadership in the 5nm [generation]"

Bonus: Intel expected AMD to grab more of the server market sooner.
"I think we, we've said we expect to see stronger competitive dynamics in the second half of this year. But what we've seen, we actually thought we would see some of that a little bit sooner. And what we've seen is, again, very strong demand for our leading edge products. ... But we do see rising competition, we plan for that, as we talked about our forecast, that they'll be share impacts that we'll have to absorb within that. And then as we look at our product roadmap over time, we think again, we start to present an even more compelling competitive position as we go into 7nm and 5nm."

 

[dmens]

You would think they would be... properly motivated... to ensure that 7 nm isn't the disaster that 10 nm is.

You would think middle management actually care about improving the company's competitiveness instead of being solely concerned with their own power and standing within the company.

 

[jpiniero]

You would think middle management actually care about improving the company's competitiveness instead of being solely concerned with their own power and standing within the company.

If 7 nm is a bust, a lot of those people will lose their jobs at least.

 

[dmens]

If 7 nm is a bust, a lot of those people will lose their jobs at least.

You are being too rational. Intel is run by a patronage system. The middle executives all have a patron senior executive. People don't get fired due to bad performance, they get fired because their patron also got fired, or the patron himself lost his support system. All the executives belong to clans for protection. They act like a prison gang.

Besides, they all know Intel is too big to fail suddenly, and the executives are paid very well. What incentive do they have to do anything besides milking the cow and taking the golden parachute?

 

[OriAr]

You are being too rational. Intel is run by a patronage system. The middle executives all have a patron senior executive. People don't get fired due to bad performance, they get fired because their patron also got fired, or the patron himself lost his support system. All the executives belong to clans for protection. They act like a prison gang.

Besides, they all know Intel is too big to fail suddenly, and the executives are paid very well. What incentive do they have to do anything besides milking the cow and taking the golden parachute?

Because now the heat is turned on them, and if they don't deliver now chances are they are getting the boot. Can't exactly afford to be concerned with internal politics now, they were in 2013 and it ended up with BK being named as the CEO.

 

[dmens]

Because now the heat is turned on them, and if they don't deliver now chances are they are getting the boot. Can't exactly afford to be concerned with internal politics now, they were in 2013 and it ended up with BK being named as the CEO.

Again you are being too rational. It is never about delivering results, the game is making sure you have someone else set up to take the fall and ensuring your clan is aligned against that person.

 

[OriAr]

Again you are being too rational. It is never about delivering results, the game is making sure you have someone else set up to take the fall and ensuring your clan is aligned against that person.

Harder to do that when the executive management is increasingly composed of outsiders who have no particular strong feelings towards individuals, especially when the rest of the company already think those individuals ***** up enough as it is. If Bob Swan was the only one who was outsider there, yeah he'd have a tough time, but when the rest of executive management is more than 50% outsiders as well then he has just what's needed to drive a deep culture change in Intel.
Intel's manufacturing group know that they have to deliver this time, and do so on time, because otherwise they will really feel the heat. (Especially when the design guys already have some not so good feelings about them).

 

[DrMrLordX]

What incentive do they have to do anything besides milking the cow and taking the golden parachute?

Perhaps Intel needs to bring in some new talent to get people motivated:

Pain and fear are the great motivators.

 

[geegee83]

What will be the short term signs that Intel will be on the right track? 10nm frequency, yield, cores? Or some early 7nm samples?

 

[DrMrLordX]

Or some early 7nm samples?

Probably that.

 

[Markeyse]

Why do people say this? What evidence does anyone have to back this up?

Because they've did it before, and their pockets a lot deeper than AMDs. They also still hold majority market share. And one department in the last fiscal year made more than all of AMD put together last year.


So there is A LOT of evidence of it. You are free to read.

 

[Markeyse]

What evidence was there that AMD would recover from Bulldozer? Yet they did it.
Intel certainly has a lot more resources than AMD did at their low point.

Exactly!

 

[maddie]

What will be the short term signs that Intel will be on the right track? 10nm frequency, yield, cores? Or some early 7nm samples?

Probably that.

Why 7nm samples? I'm fairly sure Intel has 7nm products out now from their research labs for internal testing. Wasn't 10nm samples available for years?

 

[Markeyse]

So all they need to do is:
- Catch up to a foundry competitor that has at least a year of a head start on a process that is unprecedented in its difficulty to achieve HVM
- Overrule an army of powerful careerists in middle management who are dead set against doing anything new
- Come up with better designs while suffering the biggest brain drain in the company's history
- Maintain revenue while fighting against attacks on every single market it is engaged in

Piece of cake.

You DO know that Intel got the top two people that is responsible for all of AMD's Zen and GPU products now right?

So YES! It will happen. And with their deep pockets that will come.

 

[Markeyse]

Why 7nm samples? I'm fairly sure Intel has 7nm products out now from their research labs for internal testing. Wasn't 10nm samples available for years?

They do! And they got a Jim Keller with a huge budget at his disposal.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Why 7nm samples?

Early 10nm samples never proved out and never looked all that good in the public eye. If Intel shows up with a bunch of cleverly-leaked benchmarks from 7nm product in late 2021 or so, it would get the hype train rolling again.

 

[maddie]

They do! And they got a Jim Keller with a huge budget at his disposal.

Early 10nm samples never proved out and never looked all that good in the public eye. If Intel shows up with a bunch of cleverly-leaked benchmarks from 7nm product in late 2021 or so, it would get the hype train rolling again.

As someone who has worked on projects with extremely limited budgets, the myth of greater money spent = greater success is really not that accurate.


Exactly. Having 7nm samples are absolutely no guarantee of 7nm being viable. All these posts on the inevitability of Intel resurging are faith based ones. I BELIEVE, so it must be true.

I'm not saying Intel is out, in fact I would be shocked if they don't recover, but I'm fairly certain their days of glory are over for the next few years at least, even if 7nm is good.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Having 7nm samples are absolutely no guarantee of 7nm being viable.

They are if they perform well. Remember the early Conroe ES chips floating around in late 2005? Those things really got the market fired up and ready to buy product. If 7nm leaks come out and the chips perform like crap, have low core counts, or other problems, then they're probably a sign of more trouble.

 

[dmens]

You DO know that Intel got the top two people that is responsible for all of AMD's Zen and GPU products now right?

So YES! It will happen. And with their deep pockets that will come.

CPU/GPU design isn't a one man job.

 

[maddie]

They are if they perform well. Remember the early Conroe ES chips floating around in late 2005? Those things really got the market fired up and ready to buy product. If 7nm leaks come out and the chips perform like crap, have low core counts, or other problems, then they're probably a sign of more trouble.

Exactly, no guarantee at this point in time, which is when we have these "it's inevitable Intel will dominate again (and soon ?)", I say it's faith based thinking.

 

[DooKey]

Exactly, no guarantee at this point in time, which is when we have these "it's inevitable Intel will dominate again (and soon ?)", I say it's faith based thinking.

It's only fair that Intel fans have some faith based thinking. Look at all the AMD fans that prayed they wouldn't go bankrupt. Faith is an amazing thing.

 

[moinmoin]

Because now the heat is turned on them

Is it? At least financially Intel doesn't feel the heat quite yet. Which makes it a good time for a turn around, but also harder for the turn around to be enforced if so needed.

 

[dmens]

Because they've did it before, and their pockets a lot deeper than AMDs. They also still hold majority market share. And one department in the last fiscal year made more than all of AMD put together last year.


So there is A LOT of evidence of it. You are free to read.

Your statement reads like an Intel slide deck on its financial advantage. Do you know anything about chip design at all?

I was right there during the big comeback in 2007. I also stuck around for most of the long fall before I bailed. The situation then has nothing to do with the current one.

 

[Markeyse]

CPU/GPU design isn't a one man job.

Ummmmm, I said two in my post. Jim Keller is responsible for the Zen Architecture that AMD uses today. He is now on Team Intel.

It's only fair that Intel fans have some faith based thinking. Look at all the AMD fans that prayed they wouldn't go bankrupt. Faith is an amazing thing.

Once AMD got Dr. Lisa Su, they have been on a tear! What she has done to right the ship has been nothing short of amazing. Because at the end of the day, competition between them two is best for us!

Is it? At least financially Intel doesn't feel the heat quite yet. Which makes it a good time for a turn around, but also harder for the turn around to be enforced if so needed.

One of Intel's departments made as much as all of AMD this past fiscal year. That is crazy! And you are right. This the best time for Intel. They also needed that slap in the face.

Your statement reads like an Intel slide deck on its financial advantage. Do you know anything about chip design at all?

I was right there during the big comeback in 2007. I also stuck around for most of the long fall before I bailed. The situation then has nothing to do with the current one.

Yes and they got one of the brightest minds in the industry right now, with that team they have. And you fail to think about their lead on 3D stacking, Foveros, and Koduri and that team working on the OneAPI protocol. Intel has also gobbled up a couple of companies to help their portfolio.

Intel needed this to wake up. Now in a year or two, this will get real interesting.

 

[dmens]

Ummmmm, I said two in my post. Jim Keller is responsible for the Zen Architecture that AMD uses today. He is now on Team Intel.



Once AMD got Dr. Lisa Su, they have been on a tear! What she has done to right the ship has been nothing short of amazing. Because at the end of the day, competition between them two is best for us!


One of Intel's departments made as much as all of AMD this past fiscal year. That is crazy! And you are right. This the best time for Intel. They also needed that slap in the face.



Yes and they got one of the brightest minds in the industry right now, with that team they have. And you fail to think about their lead on 3D stacking, Foveros, and Koduri and that team working on the OneAPI protocol. Intel has also gobbled up a couple of companies to help their portfolio.

Intel needed this to wake up. Now in a year or two, this will get real interesting.

Hate to break this to you but chip design wins aren't achieved with big names and buzzwords.

 

[Markeyse]

Hate to break this to you but chip design wins aren't achieved with big names and buzzwords.

They will. I see you a fanboy but if you think Intel isn't going to come back you are sadly mistaken.

They still the #1 in the industry. Their Moore's Law was the example until it couldn't be again.

Believe your own hype. While AMD been doing good, Intel has the talent, resources, and money to do it. Could care less of what you think, but instead what will happen.



Use of the word fanboy, is not allowed here.


esquared
Anandtech Forum Director