Originally posted by: BansheeX
Originally posted by: miketheidiot
lol because bubbles never happened under the gold standard.
Oh, there will always be capital misallocation, the difference is the degree. The bubbles we are experiencing today are of far greater potency and length. Rather than being forced to correct, we can now nurture the growth and delay the correction for much bigger booms and busts. One generation can essentially sacrifice their successor. We mortgaged practically the entire farm to buy milk the last 30 years, our entire manufacturing base is hollowed out.
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/credit-bubbles/
"Excessive spending that led to trade deficits was naturally corrected when gold accompanied gold-backed currency on trips overseas to pay for imports. When this gold foundation left the monetary system, domestic bank reserves contracted, and credit was rationed to the extent that a recession ensued. This nipped spending and investment excesses (bubbles) in the bud. The international gold standard prevented any participant in international trade from enjoying long periods of consuming more than they produce."
Gold standard was a terrible idea at the time, and remains a terrible idea now.
Right, we only used it to great success for 170 years. We would be nothing today without gold. Kids! So grateful!
the fed is audited by the gao, and is 100% accountable to congress.
Oh, please. Their scope of access is laughable, everything of value is off limits.
http://www.gao.gov/products/T-GGD-94-44
i'll get to the rest of this shit later, but the gold standard didn't last 170 years, certainly not consecutively. Your link shows a disturbing lack of understanding of the mechanics of the gold standard, but i'll come back to this eventually.
edit:dates of adoption of the gold standard
the gold standard ended in 1914, and an attempt to resume it began in 1925, which failed completelu in 1931 after years of the british and american governments propping it up. a second attempt to institute the gold standard occurred at betton-words, this attempted failed in 1971. a third attempt was made in 1971, which failed in 1972. Noone has tried it since.
ok here we go, i'll start will pointing out some incredibly stupid points in this article, by the looks of it thee are many.
Economists bring up the valid point that the avoidance of future rental payments has considerable value. Fair enough, but you must not forget to offset this by maintenance and depreciation of the physical structure. Bill Bonner provides the ultimate example of this with his continued saga of sinking money into his French chateau. Also, don?t forget taxes, insurance, homeowners association dues, a new roof, new HVAC, new appliances, etc. In economics, there is no free lunch.
What we are left with, then, is the continual increase in price of the ground on which the structure sits. But why should land prices increase over the long run? Is land being put to more productive use year in and year out? In an agrarian economy, it makes sense that land prices would fluctuate in tune with commodity prices, and, ultimately, growing conditions (droughts, pestilence, and the like). Interesting research has been done linking 19th-century banking crises with growing conditions for farmers.
taxes, maintenance, appliances, etc are common to both rental and ownership, the only difference is the costs are distributed differently. All capital depreciates, that does not mean that at a given point of depreciation it has no value. Land prices are subject to several effects, among others; the productive value of the land when farmed, its distance from places of work and leisure, etc. There is of course limited land and an increasing number of people seeking to have it. Furthermore, as incomes increase the value of living near work increases with it.
Obviously farmers failing would be bad for banks, farmers were and still are major users of credit.
However, the tides of history and the necessity of fighting two world wars led first to a more ?elastic? currency, and, finally, to a completely faith-based, or ?fiat,? currency. Needless to say, history is littered with the remains of countless pure paper currencies. A capitalist economy cannot function properly over the long term in the midst of a popular democracy with a fiat currency.
history is littered with thousands of gold backed currencies as well, talk abut a non-point.
I find it sad that it has to go this far, yet no one can argue that the situation in most Florida housing markets is not ?a boom brought about by credit expansion.? Many will continue to argue that the nationwide housing boom was brought about by factors other than easy credit.
there was easy credit because there has been too much investment capital for far too long, for two primary reasons: saving rates in asian and middle eastern countries have been far too high, and low income, dividend and capital gains taxes on the extreme high end (people who's primary incomes are from 'investing' rather then earning) With too much capital in markets, returns on investment dropped to the point were the constant returns of real estate become tempting, especially when bundled into various exotic securities. Of course with the increased demand for real estate and limited supply of real estate, prices began to increase at an increasing rate, and a bubble occurs.
Excessive spending that led to trade deficits was naturally corrected when gold accompanied gold-backed currency on trips overseas to pay for imports. When this gold foundation left the monetary system, domestic bank reserves contracted, and credit was rationed to the extent that a recession ensued. This nipped spending and investment excesses (bubbles) in the bud. The international gold standard prevented any participant in international trade from enjoying long periods of consuming more than they produce.
most of my post will address this incredibly ignorant paragraph, since its really the key intellectual argument of the article.
The problems of a gold backed currency are similar to those of a normal fixed exchange rate currency, and adds to it several other problems.
to begin with, the real value of a currency is determined in international trade. For a starting point, we'll just say that everything works and exchange rates are based around rates you can trade for gold. Trade will arbitrate any differences in price.
now lets say a country becomes more productive, saw by invention of the cotton gin or something. The price of cotton in this case falls, the British buy more of it, and currency flows from Britain to the United States. With the amount of gold fixed and more economic activity occurring, both economies experience deflation. Deflation is bad news, and is inevitable with a fixed amount of currency and increase productivity and increasing populations. this is a big problem. anyways so you have fixed currencies with unstable exchange forces. with unstable currency values you have a) costs and risks of transporting gold and more importantly b) pressure to reevaluate currencies. In normal economies, such as the modern fiat system used today, prices would simply adjust to supply and demand, and you woudl have a new exchange rate. In gold standard economies, you have the risk for a run on a currency, where all the people holding a currency feel the government is going to re-evaluate its currency (or stop payment altogether) thus you have a
speculative attack. Speculative attacks brought down both the pound in the 1920's and the dollar in the late 60's/early 70's.
cliffs: the dudes hypothesis doesn't work because exchange rates are constant.
the fundamental problem with the gold standard is that gold is worthless. you can't eat it, produce with it, or anything. The only value gold has is the FAITH that someone else will buy it from you at a similar price