Texashiker
Lifer
The only thing that can not be substantiated, is the export of American jobs.
Sooner or later we have no more jobs to export.
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IMF bombshell: Age of America nears end
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The only thing that can not be substantiated, is the export of American jobs.
Sooner or later we have no more jobs to export.
Exporting stupid jobs like putting together lego blocks, I mean computer parts is a good thing.
William Gaatjes
Lifer
It is not going to crumble. But the development of China is based on the same futile view of infinite resources, infinite sales. As long as China itself is not fully developed and transformed into a modern country, China is interesting for investors to earn money. But as soon as China has enough wealthy people of it's own, foreign investors will invest less and less because Chinese investors will get first choice from the Chinese government. This is normal behavior for any government from any country. But it destroys global good will. China will need not only to copy, but to create to sustain themselves. And looking at the large number of promising researchers with a Chinese surname i would not be surprised that that will happen. Question is, how loyal are they and how good will they be treated by the Chinese government.
William Gaatjes
Lifer
One should not export stupid jobs.
One should look at the revolution of the industrial age. When you have a stupid job where people are too expensive, make use of robots when you need to do serial production. The problem is that small scale production does not justify in price the creation of a specially designed robot. For example , a car can be build by human hands, or a car can be build by robots and humans. But you need a lot less humans and only humans to check the quality of the work of the robots and humans for specialized work.
Thus a market would be to produce robots that are easy to modify and easy to program for the desired job. But not too expensive for small scale productions.
A calling center is more difficult to use robots for.
A calling center should not be exported either. The quality is always worse because of the language and the culture barrier.
It is a trade off.
boomerang
Lifer
He's had a lot of help. When you control the media, you control the people.
AyashiKaibutsu
Diamond Member
Yea, Everyone in the US should be a CEO or a banker, or they better gtfo.
Texashiker
Lifer
Factories do more then pay wages, they pay property and school taxes. When those factories close, and move to china, the taxes have to be shifted to the people.
If you took 1 ipod factory from china, I wonder how much in property and school taxes they would have to pay. But instead, that money goes to communist china.
When we lose factories, not only do we lose jobs, we also lose tax revenue.
There's no point with you people who lack basic understanding of economics.
JSt0rm
Lifer
Oh your right. I forgot to blame the liberal media as well.
William Gaatjes
Lifer
It is all about short term profits. If you can buy your parts cheap from for example China, then there is no use to buy those same parts at a higher price in your country. China does not have the regulation and health concerns western countries have (well at least in the EU, may be a bit different in the US or at least in some states). The cost price of a product is manufacturing costs and profit and logistics.
Texashiker
Lifer
<not sure if being sarcastic or not?>
What is there to understand?
If you give your job to your neighbor, how will you pay your bills?
Better yet, give your job to your neighbor, then raise your neighbors taxes to pay for your food stamps, public housing, and free medical care - because you no longer have a job.
Or better yet, lets give your job and your neighbors job to china. Then hold out your hand to the government, which in turn has to print money from thin air to support your families on welfare programs.
Texashiker
Lifer
One of the big differences between china and the old USSR, a lot of chinas growth is technology based. Where USSR was lagging behind the USA in technology, China is ahead of the USA in technology manufacturing.
If anything, the roles are reversed. Where the USA was technology superior to the USSR, China is technology superior to the USA.
I highly doubt on a whole China's manufacturing is ahead of the United States. If it were, they wouldnt be employing low skill laborers to do the work. It would be done by a computer and robotics.
They're not technologically superior yet but if they can keep going they will be. But it is silly to act like all of China's growth is fake or imaginary. People are actually becoming wealthier over there. It isn't like communist Russia where steel was being produced at unnecessary levels and never actually got transformed into wealth.
Maybe at some point in the distant future. You also have to remember that a large part of China's technological growth comes through outright theft of our technology and processes. They have zero respect for intellectual property of any type. When they are as far behind as they are now, stealing this tech is a great way to massively improve your productivity, etc. without any of the costs of developing it yourself.
The only problem is when you achieve technological parity and start trying to invent things yourself, then suddenly you DO care about intellectual property, and a large part of that growth that came from theft disappears.
Texashiker
Lifer
I think those 2 sentences pretty much explain the majority of this thread.
China, whether through exploiting cheap labor, its wealth of natural resources, advances in technology,,,,, or all of it combined, is poised to take over the world markets.
As for the prediction of China becoming a world financial leader, I do not doubt it.
LegendKiller
Lifer
http://www.cato.org/pubs/trade/tpa-003.html
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20010313ts.html
The Kieretsu are similar to the communists in that they are a command economy, except in reverse situations. For China, the communists/politicians control the banks and most of the large companies/manufacturers, when they say lend/build, money is lent and stuff is built, regardless of the economic allocation of resources. For the Kieretsu, industrial barons that effectively control the government, when they want cheap money or stuff built, they tell the politicians to do it and the politicians do it.
Both are command economies, just in different ways. Both were thought to have the inevitable destiny of eclipsing the US within a small timeframe, neither will.
70% of China's GDP is from construction, comparatively speaking that number was less than 10% during the housing bubble in the US. Entire cities are being built with nobody to use or live in them. Entire train systems are being built to nowhere with nobody to use them.
China superior technologically? Hardly. They can't even buy Russian fighter jets and make their own engines for them without having the engines blow up. Their only model of economics is the copy/paste one and they aren't even good at it. The German high-speed trains they copied aren't as good.
Some loons on SeekingAlpha were going on about how technologically advanced China was with their uber-super computer which used "homegrown" technology. I laughed at them, showing how it was built with Nvidia and Intel chips.
They are good at low skill repetition.
Even if China surpassed the US on a PPP basis (which I doubt it will and, as mentioned before, PPP isn't the best measurement), it won't stay there long.
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/eo20010313ts.html
The Kieretsu are similar to the communists in that they are a command economy, except in reverse situations. For China, the communists/politicians control the banks and most of the large companies/manufacturers, when they say lend/build, money is lent and stuff is built, regardless of the economic allocation of resources. For the Kieretsu, industrial barons that effectively control the government, when they want cheap money or stuff built, they tell the politicians to do it and the politicians do it.
Both are command economies, just in different ways. Both were thought to have the inevitable destiny of eclipsing the US within a small timeframe, neither will.
70% of China's GDP is from construction, comparatively speaking that number was less than 10% during the housing bubble in the US. Entire cities are being built with nobody to use or live in them. Entire train systems are being built to nowhere with nobody to use them.
China superior technologically? Hardly. They can't even buy Russian fighter jets and make their own engines for them without having the engines blow up. Their only model of economics is the copy/paste one and they aren't even good at it. The German high-speed trains they copied aren't as good.
Some loons on SeekingAlpha were going on about how technologically advanced China was with their uber-super computer which used "homegrown" technology. I laughed at them, showing how it was built with Nvidia and Intel chips.
They are good at low skill repetition.
Even if China surpassed the US on a PPP basis (which I doubt it will and, as mentioned before, PPP isn't the best measurement), it won't stay there long.
wuliheron
Diamond Member
That's not realistic. In a capitalist economy wealth creates wealth, and wealth creates jobs. Wealth will just create more jobs they can then export.
Texashiker
Lifer
Americans create manufacturing jobs - export jobs to china - create more jobs - export to china - create more jobs,,,,, repeat
So chinas growth is substantial after all?
The most obvious difference of course is that while Japan has about 1/3 less people than the US, China has about 4 times as many. While GDP/capita matters when discussing quality of life and other such issues, raw GDP is more useful when considering who'll set the global rules or who'll have the largest military.
There's really nothing unprecedented about what China is doing - Japan, South Korea and Taiwan all developed using the same model, so it's hardly a stretch to assume China will do the same (especially since they have actual models to follow).
So while the US is busy with such important questions as Obama's birth certificate or a few million for planned parenthood, China just plows ahead while giving everyone the middle finger.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/15/business/global/15chinawind.html
Remember, empires don't fall quickly - it took the French and British 40-50 years to realize that they'd lost their empires in WWI. If the late 90s/early 00s were the height of America, people won't realize things have changed until at least another generation.
Lemon law
Lifer
I have to agree with OP, the US is busily marching off to the scrap bin is history with stupid shorted sighted government policy. We have not only outsourced our own jobs, we no longer have value added manufacturing capacity.
And now America has an inordinate faith that our investments guru's can make money out of thin air. We saw how that went in 2008, but here in 2011, we still won't let the USA regulate them.
Our balance of trade went South in 1980, but full speed ahead we longer think it matters. But one fine day, other nations will say to us, in God we trust and the USA better pay cash for imports.. And when that day comes, the US merry go round will come to a screeching halt. And get replaced by a heaping plate of reality.
The question is will the hot bed of apathy American people wake up before that? Or will we remain forever mired on questions like will Donald Trump hire or fire us.
We did not get ourselves into this hole slowly, its a matter of long term American stupidity. But when we allow our economy to go into the toilet, our doom is certain.
And now America has an inordinate faith that our investments guru's can make money out of thin air. We saw how that went in 2008, but here in 2011, we still won't let the USA regulate them.
Our balance of trade went South in 1980, but full speed ahead we longer think it matters. But one fine day, other nations will say to us, in God we trust and the USA better pay cash for imports.. And when that day comes, the US merry go round will come to a screeching halt. And get replaced by a heaping plate of reality.
The question is will the hot bed of apathy American people wake up before that? Or will we remain forever mired on questions like will Donald Trump hire or fire us.
We did not get ourselves into this hole slowly, its a matter of long term American stupidity. But when we allow our economy to go into the toilet, our doom is certain.
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The sad thing is that people will blame the contemporary presidents for something that has been brewing for decades. Both Democrats and Republicans over the last ~30 years are responsible for wasteful spending and unfunded tax cuts. During the glory years it seemed like a trivial issue (up to about the late 90's). Now with our improved medicine the aging retired generation presents an unsustainable model. People love to yell at Medicare and social security, but even if they were repelled the economic burden of our love-ones would still fall on our shoulders.
We are destined for a decline in our standard of living, it is inevitable. It won't be an end of the world collapse, but there will be a decline in 40 mile commutes, McMansions, suburban sprawl and wasteful over consumption. I imagine we will see the retired generation start to move in with their children, ala the 30's era, except now they will be living quite a bit longer. Despite the potential hardships ahead of us, people will still have jobs, and life will go on but it might just be a little less comfortable. My grandfather who was raised through the heart of the great depression liked to tell me that people lived just fine and that life went on.
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