Wouldn't a VAT tax exacerbate the problem of the 53% of the nation that actually contributes being overtaxed?
nick, instead of thinking about this in terms of how closely it would transform the country into your dream with the passage of just one piece of legislation, think about it instead in strategic terms. Specifically what will happen over the course of Obama's presidency. If this is a plan of Obama's (and that's a highly dubious if), it's probably not going to hit the floor until after the midterms. (Nobody likes to stump for a big new tax when they are campaigning.) It will turn into a big drawn out fight not because the GOP is opposed to it but because they can, and the timing would be perfect. After all, if they can milk the battle for most of 2011, that could be the last big thing Obama passes before the campaign gets into full swing. This will help fire up the GOP, possibly triggering a red shift in 2012 to fight the over-taxation (which might not have been in effect for more than a few months by then, if at all - and the more I think about it, the more I think the VAT would probably be written to kick in after 2012), and 2012 will bring in a strong mandate to Congress to cut taxes. And what will be cut? The income tax.
So not only would it be the catalyst to bring about a Fairtax-like scheme, it would also mire Obama's domestic agenda for the second half of his term, and probably guarantee his defeat in 2012. Everybody hates new taxes, and everybody loves voting out the incumbents who brought them in. The RNC will wait to inform the bulk of their base that they actually liked the VAT to begin with. Wouldn't want to waste precious campaign ammunition.
Then again, I'm not so sure that Obama wants a VAT anyways, so I'll have to stop dreaming...
edit: also never mind that a VAT would probably be rolled out with accompanying tax cuts. People dislike any new taxes, so even if it were revenue neutral when combined with other cuts (LOL!) it would still provide campaign ammunition for the masses.