1prophet
Diamond Member
- Aug 17, 2005
- 5,313
- 534
- 126
What this whole song & dance about education shows is nearly everybody's willingness to play into false memes.
Why does better education mean more jobs when it doesn't mean that at all? It just means employers will hike qualifications.
What's happening is that the need for human labor is decreasing all the time, particularly in this country. The enormous & increasing productivity per worker proves that. So we're left in a moralistic bind between the need for everybody to work (as in Jamestown) and the reality of automated production. We don't need for everybody to work all the time. What we need is a different way to look at it and to distribute goods & services to a growing number of people whose efforts in the workplace essentially aren't needed in the profit motive scheme of things. If we can't, then demand for such things will actually decrease providing even fewer employment opportunities.
We won't get that from the moralizations & insecurities of those fortunate enough to be employed. Beggar they neighbor won't work any better at the domestic level than it does internationally.
That is a feel good bullshit lie, robots didn't replace workers and cause the economic disparity that we have today, globalization through free trade agreements in which corporations can use foreign workers to bypass the environmental, labor, and safety regulations as well as much lower wages that "true liberals" and unions warned us about over thirty years ago is the root cause.
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/the-avenue/posts/2015/04/29-robots-manufacturing-jobs-andes-muro
Dont blame the robots for lost manufacturing jobs
In a recent blog we described new research by George Graetz and Guy Michaels that shows the impact of automation technology in productivity statistics. So now there is good evidence that robots are a driver of economic growth.
However, this new evidence poses a question: Has productivity growth from robots come at the cost of manufacturing jobs?
Between 1993 and 2007 (the timeframe studied by Graetz and Micheals) the United States increased the number of robots per hour worked by 237 percent. During the same period the U.S. economy shed 2.2 million manufacturing jobs. Assuming the two trends are linked doesnt seem farfetched.
Of course, correlation is not causation, and there is no shortage of alternative explanations for the decline in U.S. manufacturing. Globalization, offshoring, and skills gaps are just three frequently cited causes. Moreover, some researchers, like MITs David Autor, have argued that workers are benefiting from working alongside robots.
\
So is there a relationship between job loss and the use of industrial robots?
The substantial variation of the degree to which countries deploy robots should provide clues. If robots are a substitute for human workers, then one would expect the countries with much higher investment rates in automation technology to have experienced greater employment loss in their manufacturing sectors. Germany deploys over three times as many robots per hour worked than the United States, largely due to Germanys robust automotive industry, which is by far the most robot-intensive industry (with over 10 times more robots per worker than the average industry). Sweden has 60 percent more robots per hour worked than the United States thanks to its highly technical metal and chemical industries.
![]()
Source: Graetz and Michaels, Robots at Work.Yet the evidence suggests there is essentially no relationship between the change in manufacturing employment and robot use. Despite the installation of far more robots between 1993 and 2007, Germany lost just 19 percent of its manufacturing jobs between 1996 and 2012 compared to a 33 percent drop in the United States. (We introduce a three-year time lag to allow for robots to influence the labor market and continued with the most recent data, 2012). Korea, France, and Italy also lost fewer manufacturing jobs than the United States even as they introduced more industrial robots. On the other hand, countries like the United Kingdom and Australia invested less in robots but saw faster declines in their manufacturing sectors.
Another way to look at this is to ask: How many jobs would each economy have lost if the decline in manufacturing employment was proportional to the increase in robots?![]()
Source: Graetz and Michaels and authors analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
By this metric the United States should have lost one-third more manufacturing jobs than it actually did and Germany should have lost 50 percent more, while the United Kingdom lost five times more than it should have. The lesson is that the net impacts of automation on employment in manufacturing are not simple, and at least during the time frame studied here they cannot be said to have caused job losses.
![]()
Source: Graetz and Michaels and authors analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data.Industrial robots are a disruptive technology, and as disruptive technologies take hold some workers benefit while others are hurt. But to suggest, as some in popular media have, that the use of robots is a causal factor in the decline of American manufacturing employment is factually wrong and misses a broader point. As the productivity figures suggest, robots are increasingly essential to the competitiveness of a countrys manufacturing sector. The fact that countries like Germany, Sweden, and Korea are deploying automation technology at a much faster rate than the United States points to serious competitive challengesand further debate about the use and impacts of automation.
