I think students are going to die to Hong Kong.

[fuzzybabybunny]

I'm currently living in HK in and around Central.

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm concerned about where this is going to go.

1. The protesters have two ultimatums: the current pro-Beijing Chief Executive needs to step down by midnight (2 hours, 40 minutes from the time of this post), and China needs to give Hong Kong a 100% democratic election for their next Chief Executive.

a. The current Chief is basically committing suicide if he steps down. If he steps down, China will have his head and the heads of his family.

b. China won't give HK a 100% democratic election. It's China. It's totalitarian. And they are so concerned about "losing face" if they were to capitulate. It would be the start of their downfall.

2. The protesters aren't going to budge. In fact, they're going to start peacefully occupying government buildings if the Chief does not step down.

3. I think the protesters know that 1.a. and 1.b. are true. They know that they are severely outgunned. They know that they don't have the might necessary to actually combat China. It's David vs Goliath. Only this time David can't physically hit Goliath's weak spot on his own.

So what are they going to do? What's their option? Their only option?

Martyrdom. Once David dies, David's bigger, more powerful friends will hopefully come in and fight Goliath.

And right now I feel that China could give the protesters that death. Both sides are immovable through talks so force will have to be applied, and China's going to apply overwhelming force.

 

[UncleWai]

Dude, the HK police aren't going to use any deadly force, they are not equipped with live rounds. If the red army rolls their tanks in, the students are going to disperse before the tanks arrive to Central.

I just think it is imminent that then chief executive will step down. China can't afford another Tianmen Square.

 

[amdhunter]

Too many people there anyway. And it'll make good news. The news has been pretty boring lately.

 

[SunnyD]

The world needs a good war. But it would be a shame to be at the expense of a good place like Hong Kong.

 

[Smoblikat]

Meh, I only care about japan. I need them alive long enough to let Skyline R34's become legal for import into the US

 

[fuzzybabybunny]

Dude, the HK police aren't going to use any deadly force, they are not equipped with live rounds. If the red army rolls their tanks in, the students are going to disperse before the tanks arrive to Central.

I just think it is imminent that then chief executive will step down. China can't afford another Tianmen Square.

Even if the Chief steps down, that doesn't solve anything. The Chief is almost like a red herring. The students want universal suffrage.

I think that when it comes down to it, the police will side with Hong Kong. The red army is what I'm worried about.

During Tiananmen they just opened fire on protesters.

 

[IronWing]

When you have a government that is willing to slaughter its own citizens by the millions and no will in the general population to change this then yep, slaughter is on the way.

 

[DesiPower]

I have no doubt about that, it will definitely happen when they start "taking over" buildings... at the least, many will "disappear"

 

[moonbogg]

Nah, doubt it. Nothing news worthy is coming. It will dissolve into something really boring I'm sure.

 

[Phokus]

Doubt it, Hong Kong has a free press, there would be so many pictures/videos that come out of it, unlike Tianemen square where you only got a few glimpses. International outrage would boil over 1000 times over.

 

[DesiPower]

Dude, the HK police aren't going to use any deadly force, they are not equipped with live rounds. If the red army rolls their tanks in, the students are going to disperse before the tanks arrive to Central.

I just think it is imminent that then chief executive will step down. China can't afford another Tianmen Square.

Why cant they afford? what harm can come from it? they have the world by the balls, noone will dare do anything besides "issuing strong statements". You think Apply will close it's factory? IMO, the only real threat will come from underground cyber vigilantes, for that too China has the world's most powerful cyber army.

 

[amdhunter]

Meh, I only care about japan. I need them alive long enough to let Skyline R34's become legal for import into the US

Eh, I thought they became legal to import last year? :|

 

[Printer Bandit]

I think the protesters will continue to do their homework and help old ladies cross the street.

 

[Hugo Drax]

About 20 billion is being wired out of HK to Singapore from a firm. looks like China is being moronic. wait till the mass capital outflow starts and HK becomes a hollow shell.

 

[mmntech]

The Communist Party is not going to budge because there's zero international pressure on the PRC to deal with their rampant human rights abuses. That would mean having to give up our "cheap" iPhones.

The real threat to China is not so much what's going on in HK, but if the movement happens to spread to nouveau riche cities like Shanghai. They'll be wanting to keep a tight lid on things, so it doesn't leak out into the mainland.

 

[DesiPower]

nvm, wrong thread

 

[Phoenix86]

The real threat to China is not so much what's going on in HK, but if the movement happens to spread to nouveau riche cities like Shanghai. They'll be wanting to keep a tight lid on things, so it doesn't leak out into the mainland.

I see that as an possibility, not likely of course, but not impossible.

 

[preslove]

I've seen rumors of a phone virus that's gains access to all your contacts and communications from what's app and other messaging programs. This would allow the Chinese government penetrate the entire movement, given enough time and man-hours.

If true, China could allow the chief executive to step down and announce elections 2or3 years from now, and arrest all the movement leaders in succeeding mass raids.

This would avoid mass cell phone images of a massacre

 

[Atreus21]

Doubt it, Hong Kong has a free press, there would be so many pictures/videos that come out of it, unlike Tianemen square where you only got a few glimpses. International outrage would boil over 1000 times over.

Do you think that'd make any difference to China?

 

[maddogchen]

Yeah, I think this will lead to bloodshed somewhere down the line. China isn't going to back down and they are not going to let their puppet be overthrown either. Who cares about international outrage, they rather lose on international outrage over a bloody crackdown rather than show their people they are not in charge. The Chinese leaders know that if they lose on this, their rivals are going to have them killed. Bloody crackdowns will be good for them, it will nip in the bud any future opposition for a while. Enough time for them to make their money, live their extravagent lives, and retire rich to somewhere else in the world

 

[squarecut1]

I see some people here are underestimating the cold bloodiness and brutality of the Chinese . Nothing much is off limits to them.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

As expected

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-29467239

Hong Kong's Chief Executive CY Leung has said he will not resign amid calls from pro-democracy protesters for him to step down.

I fear the OP is correct and we will see a reaction from China that will result in protestors being injured, possibly killed.

 

[sm625]

If things go wrong in HK you could have 50 million screaming chinese on the mainland tearing up anything that isnt nailed down. The chinese govt doesnt have that much control over their population.

 

[squarecut1]

Why cant they afford? what harm can come from it? they have the world by the balls, noone will dare do anything besides "issuing strong statements". You think Apply will close it's factory?

Exactly.

Plus the fact that no matter how terrible the action, it is not as if it will bother the conscience of the Chinese.

 

[theeedude]

They'll probably just contain it, but if the protesters attack the police first, they'll respond hard.