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I think Bush is going to win

Cogman

Cogman

Lifer
Honestly I think that Bush Is going to win. Why? As far as conservitives go, most conservitives are going to vote for bush, there is little deveation to other canidates. But when talking to liberals, I find that a good portion of them are not voting for bush or kerry, but a third party person nobody knows about. And last I checked Conservitives and Liberals where about equal in numbers.

Debate.
 
Who knows. Right now it's looking good for Kerry, in another two weeks things may have flipped back to Bush again. Kerry completely blew his convention speech IMHO, and coupled with the beating he's taking over the Swiftboat Veterans for Truth ad, gives Bush an opening to make some headway with his convention speech. If he can give a good speech followed by a good performance in the debates I think he'll win.
 
I think it will be hard to tell until after the Republican convention. The media was inundated with the Democratic party for ages. I am not complaining... it was their turn... first they had to pick a candidate, then they had to formally nominate him, and then there was the dem convention. Now it is the Republicans turn. I think there will be a better picture on how things look after that.

As for me... Alfred E Newman... all the way!
😉
 
Bush will win . . . your state (Idaho by your profile). So obviously, most of the people you talk to are gonna support Bush.

Talk to people from around the country, and you'll get results similar to THIS.

It's not the "liberals" or "conservatives" that decide an election. It's always the swing voters.
 
um...i disagree..

a lot of conservatives are desperately trying to disassociate themselves with this corrupt administration. They'll likely vote for kerry over bush. A lot of conservatives on these forums who pride themselves in being smart like to brag about voting libertarian...while we stand on the sidelines in awe of their uniqueness. Liberals have who to vote for Nader, someone who can't even get his name on the ballot in many states? heh..

with that said... the economyis weak... and american's #1 priority AFTER liberating third world countries... is the amount of money in their bank accounts. looks like kerry's gonna kick bushie in the tooshie this fall 😛
 
Originally posted by: cjgallen
Bush will win . . . your state (Idaho by your profile). So obviously, most of the people you talk to are gonna support Bush.

Talk to people from around the country, and you'll get results similar to THIS.

It's not the "liberals" or "conservatives" that decide an election. It's always the swing voters.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the interesting link. I have not seen that yet. Good find.
 
Originally posted by: Cogman
Honestly I think that Bush Is going to win. Why? As far as conservitives go, most conservitives are going to vote for bush, there is little deveation to other canidates. But when talking to liberals, I find that a good portion of them are not voting for bush or kerry, but a third party person nobody knows about. And last I checked Conservitives and Liberals where about equal in numbers.

Debate.
Click to expand...

What are we debating? There are so many variables that are being thrown into this election equation that it really is impossible (at this point) to predict a winner. You can make conditional predictions (ie, if there is a terror attack, Bush will win), etc, but just saying, "conservatives are going to vote for bush and blah blah blah little deviation blah blah" is not a valid point. Very few liberals are voting for 3rd party candidates because they are all rallied behind Kerry just to get rid of Bush. This is probably the most unified the Democratic party has been in recent history.

Check this out, there was Fox poll before/after the convention. After the convention they had the following results:
Kerry 46 Bush 43
Kerry 47 Bush 43 Nader 3 (not positive about nader). Kerry actually gained a point when Nader was thrown into the race. That pretty much makes your argument shaky at best. Nader will likely take some votes from Kerry, but not as many as you think. Lots of conservatives are not too happy w/ Bush (hell, I'm a conservative (NOT REPUBLICAN) and I hate him, prefer John McCain, but I will vote for Kerry because his ideas are much better in my opinion.

Therefore, your entire argument is weak and silly, considering the million things that can happen in the next 2.5 months.
 
Originally posted by: Pennstate
WHo are your friends, I have yet met a liberal who is willing to vote for a 3rd party candidate
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i feel the same way as the OP for the most part.

im 23 right now and i have a number of friends who are still in college or have recently graduated and a surprising amount of them have spoken to me about voting for a 3rd party. so...im thinking the majority of 3rd party votes would be coming from young folks/first-time voters.
maybe im just being assanine about "young folks" but id be interested to hear who else people have heard talking about a 3rd party...
 
Originally posted by: glenn1
Who knows. Right now it's looking good for Kerry, in another two weeks things may have flipped back to Bush again. Kerry completely blew his convention speech IMHO, and coupled with the beating he's taking over the Swiftboat Veterans for Truth ad, gives Bush an opening to make some headway with his convention speech. If he can give a good speech followed by a good performance in the debates I think he'll win.
Click to expand...

The mainstream press had given Kerry a free pass so far. Don't count on that continuing. If they turn on him, and I suspect that they might, you can turn the lights out on Kerry's candidacy.
 
The mainstream press had given Kerry a free pass so far. Don't count on that continuing. If they turn on him, and I suspect that they might, you can turn the lights out on Kerry's candidacy.
Click to expand...

It's not quite that simple. Bush has to make a compelling case for people to vote for him, something which Kerry has spectacularly failed to do for himself so far IMHO. It's amazing how both seem to have forgotten this basic rule and instead have focused on why the voters should NOT vote for the other guy. If he gives a speech which is of the same type as Kerry's, then it's going to be a toss-up because the undecideds won't see a reason to vote FOR either one, and will probably split about 50/50 for completely haphazard reasons.
 
Jeez, the election is going to be decided on how well the Bush administration handles the terrorist attacks the week of elections.
 
Bush will win. He has Osama on ice in the south pacific inside some destroyer. He will play that insecurity card to the max in NYC, which happens to be around 9-11. And now he's talking about a postcard flat/vat tax. Game-set-match Bush. What has kerry offered you to vote for him? Specifically.
 
Originally posted by: Riprorin
Originally posted by: glenn1
Who knows. Right now it's looking good for Kerry, in another two weeks things may have flipped back to Bush again. Kerry completely blew his convention speech IMHO, and coupled with the beating he's taking over the Swiftboat Veterans for Truth ad, gives Bush an opening to make some headway with his convention speech. If he can give a good speech followed by a good performance in the debates I think he'll win.
Click to expand...

The mainstream press had given Kerry a free pass so far. Don't count on that continuing. If they turn on him, and I suspect that they might, you can turn the lights out on Kerry's candidacy.
Click to expand...

I agree with the fact that if the media turn on him, he is sunk. That is exactly what happened to Dean. The media loved him and treated him like a Golden Boy. Kerry was a distant haze. But once the media turned on Dean, and gave their support to Kerry... well, he has the magic torch now.

I do not think, however, that the media will turn on him. The dem party has pinned all their hopes and efforts on Kerry and there is no one else waiting in the wings to beat Bushy Boy. Kerry is safe as far as the media go. And as long as the ABB party keep the strong running, and if Bushy Boy doesnt have a magic convention, AND pull something out of his magic hat before the election... this is a VERY tight race and either could win.

🙂
 
omg! the election is a flip-flopper. they're not getting my vote in '04 :|

seriously, though... I'll be voting for Kerry, but I don't think Bush winning would be the end of the world. I'm a lot more concerned with gaining a few Senate seats than getting rid of the Boy King.
 
Originally posted by: Zebo
What has kerry offered you to vote for him? Specifically.
Click to expand...

His name. It's not George W. Bush.

Also, Republicans will win control of Congress (most likely). A democrat executive branch and a republican congress means little governmental action (which is good, in my book).

While I don't approve of all those people who are voting for Kerry w/out even looking at his policies, it does say a lot about the current administration if so many people aren't voting for a candidate, but against him.
 
I heard Osama will be a key guest speaker at the GOP convention in NY. Imagine what he will talk about... will he finally tell us who he support in this election? I think Osama will tip the balance in this election, whoever he endorse, people will vote for the other candidate for sure...
 
Originally posted by: Cogman
Honestly I think that Bush Is going to win. Why? As far as conservitives go, most conservitives are going to vote for bush, there is little deveation to other canidates. But when talking to liberals, I find that a good portion of them are not voting for bush or kerry, but a third party person nobody knows about. And last I checked Conservitives and Liberals where about equal in numbers.

Debate.
Click to expand...


How many "liberals" have you spoken to?

5, 10, 15?

It gets down to voting, most people will know the importance and the impact of four more years of Bush.
 
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