I think Bush is going to win

[Lotdog]

I think he won't!

 

[imported_tss4]

If you go strictly by polling number, Kerry would win right now. However, with months to go and quite a few states in the margin of error that doesn't mean much. I guess you just have to put your faith in good overcoming evil! 🙂

 

[arsbanned]

I think Bush is going to win

You broke the cardinal rule of Forum etiquette. Never post while drunk. 😀

 

[ToBeMe]

Originally posted by: tss4
If you go strictly by polling number, Kerry would win right now. However, with months to go and quite a few states in the margin of error that doesn't mean much. I guess you just have to put your faith in good overcoming evil! 🙂

Actually....................as stated before here on A/T.................I don't like either, but, the "latest" polls show them in a deadlock which in essence mean Kerry has lost some ground which shoudn't have happened until after the Rep. Convention especially when you consider the economy still unstable and Iraq once again heating up, but oh well.............people have their own views I suppose...........................What I hear more than anything is that people don't particularly like Bush....................but can't support Kerry either....................

MOST RECENT POLLING FIGURES>......


Kerry, Bush deadlocked in campaign, all polls now say.

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush and John Kerry, a four-term U.S. senator from Massachusetts, are tied among voters nationally less than three months before the presidential election.

Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, was supported by 45 percent of the 1,166 registered voters contacted by telephone Aug. 5-10 and Bush was supported by 47 percent. Independent candidate Ralph Nader drew 2 percent. The results are within the survey's 3.5 percentage point margin of error and are largely unchanged from a July survey, Pew said.

Two state polls released today show Bush pulling ahead of Kerry in Florida, the state where the 2000 election was decided, and tied with the president in Ohio. Both campaigns say Florida and Ohio are among about 17 states that will be the key battlegrounds for the Nov. 2 election.

The Pew survey and the state polls -- Florida by Quinnipiac University and Ohio by American Research Group Inc. -- show most voters have made up their minds. Pew found that only 22 percent of those surveyed are undecided or might change their minds before Election Day, fewer than there were at the same stage in the last three elections, according to the Washington-based organization's data.

Economic Concerns

Sixty-six percent of the adults 18 or older surveyed by Pew said the U.S. economy was just fair or poor, compared with 33 percent who said it was good or excellent. A majority of those polled -- 52 percent -- said they disapproved of Bush's handling of the economy and the same proportion favored Kerry over Bush to fix it.

Since Bush took office in 2001, the economy has had a net loss of 1.2 million jobs. In July, 32,000 jobs were created, about an eighth of the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

``The real issue that voters are focused on is whether you can create jobs and whether you can relieve the pressure that middle class families feel today,'' Kerry campaign adviser Tad Devine said. ``The economy is the biggest issue in this election.''

Bush campaign spokesman Terry Holt said Bush's poll numbers on the economy will improve.

``Obviously, as people begin to understand that John Kerry would raise taxes and wreck the economy, we'll see that the economic numbers will reflect that overall as well,'' Holt said.

Campaigning

Bush, 58, and Kerry, 60, were campaigning on their economic proposals today. Kerry was in Carson, California, where he said his plan for $419 billion in tax cuts over 10 years will create jobs without adding to the deficit. Bush, in Las Vegas, promoted his plans to boost job training so workers can keep up with changes in the economy.

Those polled by Pew also said they favored Kerry 53 percent to 36 percent to do a better job on education, and 53 percent to 35 percent on creating jobs. Fifty-five percent said they believed he would do better on education. On Iraq, 42 percent said Kerry would do a better job and 58 percent said Bush would.

Bush trumps Kerry on voter perception of leadership, said Michael Dimock, research director at the Pew Center. Bush led Kerry, 49 percent to 39 percent on who can better handle terrorism, and 57 percent said Bush is a strong leader, compared with 34 percent who said that of Kerry. 70 percent said Bush is ``willing to take a stand, even if it's unpopular,'' and 29 percent said that described Kerry.

Leadership

``Despite trailing on a lot of issues, people have a lot of confidence in Bush's leadership abilities,'' Dimock said. ``Especially post-9/11, that can matter for a lot.''

To win the White House, a candidate must gain majorities in enough states to collect at least 270 Electoral College votes, which are apportioned to states based on congressional representation.

In Florida, which has 27 electoral votes, Kerry would get 42 percent support if the election were held now and Bush would get 46 percent, a poll by Hamden, Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University found. The two candidates were tied at 43 percent each in a June Quinnipiac poll. An American Research Group poll released last Friday also showed Kerry ahead of Bush in Florida.

Kerry would get 47 percent support in Ohio to Bush's 46 percent, according to an American Research Group survey. The result is within the poll's 4 percentage point margin of error.

Independent candidate Ralph Nader got support from 5 percent in the Quinnipiac poll and 2 percent in the American Research Group survey.

Florida and Ohio are among 17 states that Bush won or lost by 7 percentage points or less in the last election. Bush, 58, won Ohio by 3.5 percentage points in 2000 and took Florida when the U.S. Supreme Court halted a recount 36 days after the election, leaving the Republican with a 537-vote margin over Democrat Al Gore out of about 6 million ballots cast.

That gave Bush 271 electoral votes to 267 for Gore, who won the national popular vote tally by a final number of 244,000 ballots after final recounts.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,094 registered Florida voters Aug. 5- 10. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Manchester, New Hampshire-based American Research Group surveyed 600 Ohio adults deemed likely to vote from Aug. 9-11.

 

[imported_tss4]

Originally posted by: ToBeMe

Originally posted by: tss4
If you go strictly by polling number, Kerry would win right now. However, with months to go and quite a few states in the margin of error that doesn't mean much. I guess you just have to put your faith in good overcoming evil! 🙂

Actually....................as stated before here on A/T.................I don't like either, but, the "latest" polls show them in a deadlock which in essence mean Kerry has lost some ground which shoudn't have happened until after the Rep. Convention especially when you consider the economy still unstable and Iraq once again heating up, but oh well.............people have their own views I suppose...........................What I hear more than anything is that people don't particularly like Bush....................but can't support Kerry either....................

MOST RECENT POLLING FIGURES>......


Kerry, Bush deadlocked in campaign, all polls now say.

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush and John Kerry, a four-term U.S. senator from Massachusetts, are tied among voters nationally less than three months before the presidential election.

Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, was supported by 45 percent of the 1,166 registered voters contacted by telephone Aug. 5-10 and Bush was supported by 47 percent. Independent candidate Ralph Nader drew 2 percent. The results are within the survey's 3.5 percentage point margin of error and are largely unchanged from a July survey, Pew said.

Two state polls released today show Bush pulling ahead of Kerry in Florida, the state where the 2000 election was decided, and tied with the president in Ohio. Both campaigns say Florida and Ohio are among about 17 states that will be the key battlegrounds for the Nov. 2 election.

The Pew survey and the state polls -- Florida by Quinnipiac University and Ohio by American Research Group Inc. -- show most voters have made up their minds. Pew found that only 22 percent of those surveyed are undecided or might change their minds before Election Day, fewer than there were at the same stage in the last three elections, according to the Washington-based organization's data.

Economic Concerns

Sixty-six percent of the adults 18 or older surveyed by Pew said the U.S. economy was just fair or poor, compared with 33 percent who said it was good or excellent. A majority of those polled -- 52 percent -- said they disapproved of Bush's handling of the economy and the same proportion favored Kerry over Bush to fix it.

Since Bush took office in 2001, the economy has had a net loss of 1.2 million jobs. In July, 32,000 jobs were created, about an eighth of the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

``The real issue that voters are focused on is whether you can create jobs and whether you can relieve the pressure that middle class families feel today,'' Kerry campaign adviser Tad Devine said. ``The economy is the biggest issue in this election.''

Bush campaign spokesman Terry Holt said Bush's poll numbers on the economy will improve.

``Obviously, as people begin to understand that John Kerry would raise taxes and wreck the economy, we'll see that the economic numbers will reflect that overall as well,'' Holt said.

Campaigning

Bush, 58, and Kerry, 60, were campaigning on their economic proposals today. Kerry was in Carson, California, where he said his plan for $419 billion in tax cuts over 10 years will create jobs without adding to the deficit. Bush, in Las Vegas, promoted his plans to boost job training so workers can keep up with changes in the economy.

Those polled by Pew also said they favored Kerry 53 percent to 36 percent to do a better job on education, and 53 percent to 35 percent on creating jobs. Fifty-five percent said they believed he would do better on education. On Iraq, 42 percent said Kerry would do a better job and 58 percent said Bush would.

Bush trumps Kerry on voter perception of leadership, said Michael Dimock, research director at the Pew Center. Bush led Kerry, 49 percent to 39 percent on who can better handle terrorism, and 57 percent said Bush is a strong leader, compared with 34 percent who said that of Kerry. 70 percent said Bush is ``willing to take a stand, even if it's unpopular,'' and 29 percent said that described Kerry.

Leadership

``Despite trailing on a lot of issues, people have a lot of confidence in Bush's leadership abilities,'' Dimock said. ``Especially post-9/11, that can matter for a lot.''

To win the White House, a candidate must gain majorities in enough states to collect at least 270 Electoral College votes, which are apportioned to states based on congressional representation.

In Florida, which has 27 electoral votes, Kerry would get 42 percent support if the election were held now and Bush would get 46 percent, a poll by Hamden, Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University found. The two candidates were tied at 43 percent each in a June Quinnipiac poll. An American Research Group poll released last Friday also showed Kerry ahead of Bush in Florida.

Kerry would get 47 percent support in Ohio to Bush's 46 percent, according to an American Research Group survey. The result is within the poll's 4 percentage point margin of error.

Independent candidate Ralph Nader got support from 5 percent in the Quinnipiac poll and 2 percent in the American Research Group survey.

Florida and Ohio are among 17 states that Bush won or lost by 7 percentage points or less in the last election. Bush, 58, won Ohio by 3.5 percentage points in 2000 and took Florida when the U.S. Supreme Court halted a recount 36 days after the election, leaving the Republican with a 537-vote margin over Democrat Al Gore out of about 6 million ballots cast.

That gave Bush 271 electoral votes to 267 for Gore, who won the national popular vote tally by a final number of 244,000 ballots after final recounts.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,094 registered Florida voters Aug. 5- 10. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Manchester, New Hampshire-based American Research Group surveyed 600 Ohio adults deemed likely to vote from Aug. 9-11.

True, and it will continue to shift both ways. My point was only that its too close to tell and anyone could win.

 

[kage69]

I think it will be close, but I think Kerry will win. Americans are tired of being embarrassed by their President, it's just that simple. Bush is riding on single-issue voters and the evangelicals.
I personally only know a handful of people that are going to vote for Bush, whereas the majority of my friends and co-workers are chomping at the bit to check Kerry on the ballot. :thumbsup:

 

[Cogman]

Actaully My opinion is formed mostly on browsing these forums and others. True it is only out of about 40 max, but the trend is the same.

I think it will be close, but I think Kerry will win. Americans are tired of being embarrassed by their President, it's just that simple. Bush is riding on single-issue voters and the evangelicals.
I personally only know a handful of people that are going to vote for Bush, whereas the majority of my friends and co-workers are chomping at the bit to check Kerry on the ballot.

Hmmm, and what are the many issues that kerry is riding on? Vietnam qualifies me to be president. Swift boat vets are dirty liers (opps cant say that, because kerry has not actually said that.). Bush is a moron. America is Split and I will unify it.

humm, those are good strong arguing rights. Debates will be pretty good to watch actually.

 

[ToBeMe]

LMAO......... I posted this another place but it pertains to this topic also.

You know what.......................I think I just figured this all out and sadly for some, or happily for others, it would mean a Bush win......................

If you recall a thread a few weeks back, I stated that I thought if Cheney had the best interests of his party in mind, he should resign and allow Bush a new V.P. candidate since he has no futre (i.e. a v.p. is usually thought of as a possible Pres. in training and the future of that party) and has a huge "baggage factor" that IMHO can't help Bush or the Reps.

I think the Reps. and Bush are using Cheney as an "attack dog" possibly.................................it would play into their hand perfectly........................let Cheney go out and campaign, let him get all worked up and in heated debates with Kerry/Edwards and KABLAM!!!!!!!! There goes heart attack #5 or #6 not sure which, but it would probably kill him and even if it didn't would mean a replacement......................probably McCain.....................and there you have it...............not only the McCain votes would swing............but also a sympathy vote............

Couple the above with the probable capture or killing of OBL just weeks prior to the election and what do you think will happen?????😉

 

[kage69]

Hmmm, and what are the many issues that kerry is riding on?

Bringing accountability back to the White House for starters. Not pandering to the religious right and blurring the line between church and state for another. Repairing international relations, the list goes on...

Vietnam qualifies me to be president.

If you say so.

Swift boat vets are dirty liers

Not all of them, just the ones who partake in GOP smear campaigns.

Bush is a moron

The sad, sad truth.

America is Split and I will unify it.

Bush indeed is quite the divider, anyone who contests that needs a CAT scan. Whether Kerry can deliver remains to be seen, although he's got a great template of what not to do.

humm, those are good strong arguing rights

hummmm, you need to lay off the FAUX son...

Debates will be pretty good to watch actually.

Agreed. Watching Bush attempt to speak and sound informed is always good for a laugh. I'm sure he'll try to arrange it so Cheney is there holding his hand again. America, get ready to be embarrassed, again.

 

[Miramonti]

The election at this point imo is going to be decided by one thing, voter mobilization. What scares me at is that the gop seems to pursue the issue much more aggressively than the democrats. I think the democrats are doing a poor job so far reaching out to everyone and emphasizing the importance, if not urgency, of *everyone* getting out to vote in november.

 

[TravisT]

I think pretty well everyone has their mind already made up in the country. I believe that these conventions will sway votes very little and that was shown with Kerry/Edwards getting only 2 or 3 points boost. We'll see how Bush does though, he hasn't been doing enough campaigning in my opinion, he could have a more significant boost than what Kerry had.

I think Bush might be able to pull this one out but it will be another close race, no doubt.

 

[chowderhead]

Originally posted by: ToBeMe

Originally posted by: tss4
If you go strictly by polling number, Kerry would win right now. However, with months to go and quite a few states in the margin of error that doesn't mean much. I guess you just have to put your faith in good overcoming evil! 🙂

Actually....................as stated before here on A/T.................I don't like either, but, the "latest" polls show them in a deadlock which in essence mean Kerry has lost some ground which shoudn't have happened until after the Rep. Convention especially when you consider the economy still unstable and Iraq once again heating up, but oh well.............people have their own views I suppose...........................What I hear more than anything is that people don't particularly like Bush....................but can't support Kerry either....................

MOST RECENT POLLING FIGURES>......


Kerry, Bush deadlocked in campaign, all polls now say.

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush and John Kerry, a four-term U.S. senator from Massachusetts, are tied among voters nationally less than three months before the presidential election.

Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee, was supported by 45 percent of the 1,166 registered voters contacted by telephone Aug. 5-10 and Bush was supported by 47 percent. Independent candidate Ralph Nader drew 2 percent. The results are within the survey's 3.5 percentage point margin of error and are largely unchanged from a July survey, Pew said.

The post you cut and pasted is in error. You should really provide a link.

Kerry leads (avg of all recent polls.) 47.1% to 44.3% for GWB

The Pew poll shows Kerry leading 47% to 45% not the other way around. Almost all polls show Kerry in the high 40% while GWB is in the mid 40% on average.

Originally posted by: ToBeMe
Two state polls released today show Bush pulling ahead of Kerry in Florida, the state where the 2000 election was decided, and tied with the president in Ohio. Both campaigns say Florida and Ohio are among about 17 states that will be the key battlegrounds for the Nov. 2 election.

In Florida, which has 27 electoral votes, Kerry would get 42 percent support if the election were held now and Bush would get 46 percent, a poll by Hamden, Connecticut-based Quinnipiac University found. The two candidates were tied at 43 percent each in a June Quinnipiac poll. An American Research Group poll released last Friday also showed Kerry ahead of Bush in Florida.

???? Where are you getting this????

Quinnipiac Univ Poll in Florida 08/5-10 Kerry 47% to 41% GWB


Either Bloomberg news services mixed up all the numbers or you did.
:thumbsdown:

 

[Vic]

"It's the economy, stupid."

People are going to do what they always do before an election. They're going to ask themselves, are they better off today than they were 4 years ago? What has 4 years of GW Bush brought them? And then they will vote almost entirely on that answer, all other issues nonwithstanding.

Sorry, it's not even going to be close. This is one conservative libertarian btw who is voting for Kerry. Oh, and Pers, I don't care what you think about my "uniqueness" -- just because all the other lemmings are jumping into the sea doesn't mean I'm going to follow just to match your version of conformity.