Hurricane Rita!

[ViRGE]

Originally posted by: ElFenix

Originally posted by: ViRGE

Originally posted by: Mill
904mb.

Look for Rita to become the 3rd most intense hurricane in recorded history real soon now. All it has to do is pass Kat at 902 and Allen at 899.

and labor day at 892 and gilbert at 888 and those are just the atlantic, the pacific had some lower

Ya, well I'm just talking North Atlantic here. We're way out of our league if we include Pacific storms.

 

[Mill]

Originally posted by: ElFenix

Originally posted by: Mill
904mb.

holy fsck


looking at the maps, going to austin isn't such a great idea

Yeah, it doesn't look good for Dallas or Austin. Guess you'll have to pick one, although you have friends in Austin, right?

 

[Cooler]

I wonder when they will add a catgory 6 to the scale.

 

[Mill]

899mb according to Max Mayfield of the NHC. My God.

 

[Mill]

668
WTNT63 KNHC 212351
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
650 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT
MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY
DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED...
WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB
AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.



At minimum the pressure is 898 or lower. GOOD GOD.

 

[ViRGE]

Originally posted by: Mill
668
WTNT63 KNHC 212351
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
650 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA BECOMES THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE ON RECORD...

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT
MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY
DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED...
WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

RITA CURRENTLY RANKS BEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988 WITH 888 MB
AND THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE WITH 892 MB.



At minimum the pressure is 898 or lower. GOOD GOD.

Already!? Wow, she may make #2 after all.

 

[AbsolutZero]

Is Rita taking a slight turn to the NW?

Load this IR loop and turn on the Trop Fcst Pts.

 

[ViRGE]

Originally posted by: AbsolutZero
Is Rita taking a slight turn to the NW?

Load this IR loop and turn on the Trop Fcst Pts.

Looks like it. That would push landfall up more to the north, towards Houston.

 

[LookingGlass]

Originally posted by: AbsolutZero
Speaking of Dallas, models are forecasting the remnants to hover over NE TX for 3 days. Expect lots of flooding!

I live here in Dallas, that is *iffy*. That is not definite yet. It may hover over North Texas, or keep on going. We'll findout.

Most hotels/motels are sold out in Dallas.

 

[Aquila76]

Originally posted by: AbsolutZero
Is Rita taking a slight turn to the NW?

Load this IR loop and turn on the Trop Fcst Pts.

Looks that way. That's bad. One of the local forecasters said the NOLA levees would not be able to sustain more than three inches of rain or they'll break completely. Thankfully most people stayed the hell outta there.

 

[AbsolutZero]

Originally posted by: LookingGlass

Originally posted by: AbsolutZero
Speaking of Dallas, models are forecasting the remnants to hover over NE TX for 3 days. Expect lots of flooding!

I live here in Dallas, that is *iffy*. That is not definite yet. It may hover over North Texas, or keep on going. We'll findout.

Most hotels/motels are sold out in Dallas.

Its my occupation to judge forecast model output. When the GFS (the NWS's most accurate model) forecasts the system to nearly stall over NE TX for 6 runs in a row (the model runs 4xday), I'd say the forecast is pretty accurate. You're right it won't sit on NE TX for more than 48 hours, but when the rain is falling 1-2 inches per hour, thats a sh1tload of water!

Luckily for you, the heaviest rain will fall east of Dallas, from Houston to College Station to Paris into SE OK. My prediction is 15-20 inches along that swath. Wrn LA will also get 5-10 inches. Dallas 5-8 inches.

Link to latest GFS 500mb forecast
Rainfall forecast

 

[ajpa123]

OMG.. the weatherman on FOXNEWS's name is JOE BASTARDI ...

That's KwazY KooL

 

[lobadobadingdong]

just great, I finally get a vacation, it's planned for central texas where the winds are gonna be 40-60. (supposed to still be a tropical storm, or depression by the time it gets to my house in north texas on the oklahoma border too.)

 

[Ulfwald]

Originally posted by: lobadobadingdong
just great, I finally get a vacation, it's planned for central texas where the winds are gonna be 40-60. (supposed to still be a tropical storm, or depression by the time it gets to my house in north texas on the oklahoma border too.)

Well, you can spend your time indoors with the family

 

[ajpa123]

Winds are now up to 175 mph !

 

[SynthDude2001]

Originally posted by: AbsolutZero
Luckily for you, the heaviest rain will fall east of Dallas, from Houston to College Station to Paris into SE OK. My prediction is 15-20 inches along that swath. Wrn LA will also get 5-10 inches. Dallas 5-8 inches.

....sh!t.

 

[KK]

Originally posted by: AbsolutZero

Originally posted by: LookingGlass

Originally posted by: AbsolutZero
Speaking of Dallas, models are forecasting the remnants to hover over NE TX for 3 days. Expect lots of flooding!

I live here in Dallas, that is *iffy*. That is not definite yet. It may hover over North Texas, or keep on going. We'll findout.

Most hotels/motels are sold out in Dallas.

Its my occupation to judge forecast model output. When the GFS (the NWS's most accurate model) forecasts the system to nearly stall over NE TX for 6 runs in a row (the model runs 4xday), I'd say the forecast is pretty accurate. You're right it won't sit on NE TX for more than 48 hours, but when the rain is falling 1-2 inches per hour, thats a sh1tload of water!

Luckily for you, the heaviest rain will fall east of Dallas, from Houston to College Station to Paris into SE OK. My prediction is 15-20 inches along that swath. Wrn LA will also get 5-10 inches. Dallas 5-8 inches.

Link to latest GFS 500mb forecast
Rainfall forecast

No offense to you, but I have a better chance of predicting this storm using a map as a dartboard than any forecaster could. Just with the last hurricane was predicted to go up along floridas west cost into the pan handle, we see what happened to that prediction. The only accurate forecast is stepping outside and looking up in the sky.

Anyways, looks like this one is going to hurt.

 

[AbsolutZero]

Originally posted by: KK

Originally posted by: AbsolutZero

Originally posted by: LookingGlass

Originally posted by: AbsolutZero
Speaking of Dallas, models are forecasting the remnants to hover over NE TX for 3 days. Expect lots of flooding!

I live here in Dallas, that is *iffy*. That is not definite yet. It may hover over North Texas, or keep on going. We'll findout.

Most hotels/motels are sold out in Dallas.

Its my occupation to judge forecast model output. When the GFS (the NWS's most accurate model) forecasts the system to nearly stall over NE TX for 6 runs in a row (the model runs 4xday), I'd say the forecast is pretty accurate. You're right it won't sit on NE TX for more than 48 hours, but when the rain is falling 1-2 inches per hour, thats a sh1tload of water!

Luckily for you, the heaviest rain will fall east of Dallas, from Houston to College Station to Paris into SE OK. My prediction is 15-20 inches along that swath. Wrn LA will also get 5-10 inches. Dallas 5-8 inches.

Link to latest GFS 500mb forecast
Rainfall forecast

No offense to you, but I have a better chance of predicting this storm using a map as a dartboard than any forecaster could. Just with the last hurricane was predicted to go up along floridas west cost into the pan handle, we see what happened to that prediction. The only accurate forecast is stepping outside and looking up in the sky.

Anyways, looks like this one is going to hurt.

The prediction of Katrina up the west coast of Florida was 5 days out. I agree that beyond 5 days, a dart board is not much better or worse than a computer model. You do have to give props to NHC and the models they use when it was 3 days from NO, the prediction was dead on and did not waver during that 3 day period. I do take no offense, but my problem is that is the logic you use is the same of those who do not evacuate when a cat 5 is 2 days away. They didn't belive the forecast, b/c "they're always wrong".

 

[Chaotic42]

Originally posted by: KK
No offense to you, but I have a better chance of predicting this storm using a map as a dartboard than any forecaster could. Just with the last hurricane was predicted to go up along floridas west cost into the pan handle, we see what happened to that prediction. The only accurate forecast is stepping outside and looking up in the sky.

Anyways, looks like this one is going to hurt.

We have a few ex-meteorology folks at work and they called it on Friday. They said the eye would skirt our office and it did.

 

[Ikonomi]

I wish the search function worked better, because this thread is much better than the stickied one.

 

[Chaotic42]

Originally posted by: Ikonomi
I wish the search function worked better, because this thread is much better than the stickied one.

I PMed the mods several hours ago and told them that people wanted this one stickied instead. When I first posted my thread, I asked for the sticky, because there wasn't a Rita thread stickied yet. Sorry about all of this. Maybe they'll at least merge them or something.

 

[Medea]

As of 10 PM CDT, the barometric pressure is down to 897 with winds @ 175 mph. Although it's just one milibar, another drop in the pressure may very well indicate that it's going to strengthen even more.

 

[Ikonomi]

Originally posted by: Chaotic42

Originally posted by: Ikonomi
I wish the search function worked better, because this thread is much better than the stickied one.

I PMed the mods several hours ago and told them that people wanted this one stickied instead. When I first posted my thread, I asked for the sticky, because there wasn't a Rita thread stickied yet. Sorry about all of this. Maybe they'll at least merge them or something.

It's just that there's more information posted in this thread. Though some people are posting their info in both threads.

 

[KK]

Originally posted by: AbsolutZero

The prediction of Katrina up the west coast of Florida was 5 days out. I agree that beyond 5 days, a dart board is not much better or worse than a computer model. You do have to give props to NHC and the models they use when it was 3 days from NO, the prediction was dead on and did not waver during that 3 day period. I do take no offense, but my problem is that is the logic you use is the same of those who do not evacuate when a cat 5 is 2 days away. They didn't belive the forecast, b/c "they're always wrong".

Anybody that lives on a coastal area has got to understand that there is always a chance of a storm of the magnitude changing course. And the area covered by such a storm would warrant evacuating even if it isn't projected to hit where one lives. Like if I lived in whats left of mississippi, I'd be ready to get the hell out of dodge.

Originally posted by: Chaotic42

We have a few ex-meteorology folks at work and they called it on Friday. They said the eye would skirt our office and it did.

Is the reason they are ex-meteorology because they were too accurate?

 

[erub]

college station, 15-20 inches of rain, dang..