- Aug 20, 2000
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With an extraordinarily high amount of misinformation circulating about the crisis in New Orleans, I thought I might try to do something helpful for once and write out a consolidated question and answer post about what's gone on in Louisiana lately.
Q: Who's at fault for this disaster?
A: A lot of people. Maybe everyone going all the way back to the state and federal governments since 1965. The standard the levees of the city were constructed to then was to withstand a Category 3 hurricane (on the five-step scale). An upgrade would have meant a minimum of $2.5 billion being spent; a number staggering enough for scores of politicians since then to gamble for decades with the lives of the now affected. (Source: NY Times)
Q: How about the claim that federal cuts under the Bush administration led to the delaying of levee upgrades until it was too late?
A: Unfortunately, it seems that we sometimes forget that Mother Nature truly does wield forces beyond our imagination or control. The lack of funding and innumerable delays associated with them did not end up playing a factor in the flooding of the state. As it turns out, "the levees near Lake Pontchartrain that gave way were completed and in good condition before the hurricane...had this project been fully complete, it is my opinion that based on the intensity of this storm that the flooding of the business district and the French Quarter would have still taken place." (Source: Chicago Tribune)
Q: Was FEMA meant to head up this relief effort?
A: The typical role of the agency is to take a secondary role and provide assistance, specialized equipment and financial aid to local and state agencies. In case of a disaster local and state authorities are supposed to start reeling off orders out of a playbook drawn up years in advance. FEMA then coordinates cross-state or city efforts and the like. I think a lot of people put an unholy amount of trust and credit to the federal government of the United States, but there are clearly drawn up lines of authority that it simply is not allowed to cross. On an immediate basis, this is a local and state issue. (Source: Chicago Tribune)
Q: Okay. For the part they played though, what's up with the bungling of the disaster by FEMA?
A: Lord, who knows. A lot of the mismanagement has been attributed to the Federal Emergency Management Agency's director Michael Brown, which is probably a bit shortsighted. (What single man really makes or breaks a large government agency's plans?) Brown's credentials seem poor to average, as he oversaw emergency services in the central Oklahoma city of Edmond in the mid-1970s. Speaking only as a layman, I would have hoped that he would have national-level expertise before reaching the position that he now holds. Brown became director in 2001 when then-FEMA Director Joe Allbaugh named him as his successor. At times, it's seemed that the press has been more informed about what's going on in the flood zone than FEMA's director. There's an ongoing debate as to whether it's better to sh!tcan the guy right now and risk changing horses mid-race, or later on when it won't cause quite as much trouble. (Source: Chicago Tribune)
Q: Why wasn't the Army deployed immediately to the region?
A: The commander of National Guard troops in Louisiana is the governor of the state, in this case Kathleen Blanco. (While the President of the United States can supercede the governor's authority and issue orders to the troops directly, "presidents of both parties traditionally defer to governors to deploy their own National Guardsmen and request help from other states when it comes to natural disasters.") The way National Guard troops operate is not on a full-time active basis. In a disaster scenario, soldiers report from their normal full-time jobs and homes to base, receieve instructions and get to where they need to be to pick up gear and transportation. A 24 hour turnaround time would be remarkable - 72 hours minimum is more realistic. Troops did make it to the Superdome on September 2nd to restore order there. (Source: Associated Press, Defence Dept.)
Q: Did the state suffer because our the bulk of our regular troops are overseas in Iraq and Afghanistan?
A: No. It's the National Guard that's primarily tasked to disaster relief efforts in the country, and the majority of the National Guard is safely at home in the U.S (that's 300,000 troops). In Senator Bond's words: "Sixty-five percent of Louisiana's Guard members were available, and 60 percent of Mississippi's were available. There's still far more Guardsmen and women available than are overseas." Ironically, troops would have been faster and more effective on the scene if all they had to do was kill people and blow up stuff. But in this situation they've got to take their gear (because of the spate of lawlessness) plus haul tons of medicine, food and water with them. Logistics = time. (Source: The Mercury News)
Q: I heard that troops aren't allowing civilians into the city, or out of shelters like the Superdome. What's the deal?
A: A combination of factors make the city really dangerous right now. The one we all know about is the roving gangs of armed rapists and looters (though all of 5-7 people have actually reportedly been shot by law enforcement). Worse is the overflow of garbage, human waste from sewers and substations, chemical plants and tankers leaking into the water as well as the contamination from corpses of the drowned and murdered. It's likely that portions of the city may still be electrified, and water + electricity = danger. In a situation like this, as much as we may wish for individual responsibility and freedom it may be better to button everyone down for a while in contained areas while the disaster is managed. (Source: NZ Herald)
Q: Why was this disaster relief effort so badly bungled while 9/11 was run so well?
A: Combination of factors again. First and primarily, you have scale. National Guard historian Michael Doubler: "With the commitment of 20,000 National Guard troops at this early stage, this operation is already four or five times larger than the sustained National Guard response that followed the attacks on the World Trade Center on 9-11." Keep in mind that this is hardly just the city of New Orleans being affected. Much of both the states of Lousiana and Mississippi were hit hard - we're talking some 90,000 square miles. Just getting down to New Orleans is a monumental task in itself. Next you have the relative wealth of the state of New York versus Lousiana and Mississippi - both in the top three poorest states in the union. Sadly, that sort of thing does matter when it comes to disaster relief planning and the reaction during a crisis of the affected civilians. (Source: Army News Service)
Q: Why the hell do people live in a city below sea level that's at constant threat of hurricanes anyways? Why didn't they leave when warned?
A: Obviously we don't know exactly how the human mind works, but we do have a good idea about some things. Sociologists and psychologists use the term 'heuristics' to describe the mental strategies we've developed as a species for dealing with both reality and uncertainty. One of the most important is the so-called "availability heuristic," which has a lot do with memories of what we've experienced. "People who have lived through small hurricanes say, 'Well, I'm not going to evacuate, I've been through this one or that one,' without realizing that the past does not predict the future," says Kathleen Tierney, director of the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado. What they haven't been through is the next hurricane, which could be a lot worse. I highly encourage you all to read the article linked, and I'll also post it in a reply below. (Source: Toronto Star)
Q: Which heads are going to roll for the mismanagement of this whole affair?
Hard to come up with specifics this soon, but probably quite a few people. Homeland Security and FEMA messed up. People in the administration for the state of LA messed up. The local police force of New Orleans messed up. On the topic of George Bush Jr, I think it's safe to say that the President of the United States is not exactly well known for admitting errors when he's committed them, but then again nor is it reasonable to expect him to handpick and examine every single top candidate of every federal and state agency. You would think that a creation of his own like Homeland Security would have an indisputably credentialed staff, though. If you have a grievance, remember to take it to the polls in 2006.
Q: Will New Orleans be rebuilt?
A: Are you kidding me? Aside from being the port where 20% of America's shipped supplies come in, you're talking about a nation that practically defined itself with the spirit of rebellion and that the sky's the limit. To hell with if rebuilding the city in precariously placed land is smart or not, I expect the state to rebuild the city solely to stick it in Mother Nature's face.
Q: Who's at fault for this disaster?
A: A lot of people. Maybe everyone going all the way back to the state and federal governments since 1965. The standard the levees of the city were constructed to then was to withstand a Category 3 hurricane (on the five-step scale). An upgrade would have meant a minimum of $2.5 billion being spent; a number staggering enough for scores of politicians since then to gamble for decades with the lives of the now affected. (Source: NY Times)
Q: How about the claim that federal cuts under the Bush administration led to the delaying of levee upgrades until it was too late?
A: Unfortunately, it seems that we sometimes forget that Mother Nature truly does wield forces beyond our imagination or control. The lack of funding and innumerable delays associated with them did not end up playing a factor in the flooding of the state. As it turns out, "the levees near Lake Pontchartrain that gave way were completed and in good condition before the hurricane...had this project been fully complete, it is my opinion that based on the intensity of this storm that the flooding of the business district and the French Quarter would have still taken place." (Source: Chicago Tribune)
Q: Was FEMA meant to head up this relief effort?
A: The typical role of the agency is to take a secondary role and provide assistance, specialized equipment and financial aid to local and state agencies. In case of a disaster local and state authorities are supposed to start reeling off orders out of a playbook drawn up years in advance. FEMA then coordinates cross-state or city efforts and the like. I think a lot of people put an unholy amount of trust and credit to the federal government of the United States, but there are clearly drawn up lines of authority that it simply is not allowed to cross. On an immediate basis, this is a local and state issue. (Source: Chicago Tribune)
Q: Okay. For the part they played though, what's up with the bungling of the disaster by FEMA?
A: Lord, who knows. A lot of the mismanagement has been attributed to the Federal Emergency Management Agency's director Michael Brown, which is probably a bit shortsighted. (What single man really makes or breaks a large government agency's plans?) Brown's credentials seem poor to average, as he oversaw emergency services in the central Oklahoma city of Edmond in the mid-1970s. Speaking only as a layman, I would have hoped that he would have national-level expertise before reaching the position that he now holds. Brown became director in 2001 when then-FEMA Director Joe Allbaugh named him as his successor. At times, it's seemed that the press has been more informed about what's going on in the flood zone than FEMA's director. There's an ongoing debate as to whether it's better to sh!tcan the guy right now and risk changing horses mid-race, or later on when it won't cause quite as much trouble. (Source: Chicago Tribune)
Q: Why wasn't the Army deployed immediately to the region?
A: The commander of National Guard troops in Louisiana is the governor of the state, in this case Kathleen Blanco. (While the President of the United States can supercede the governor's authority and issue orders to the troops directly, "presidents of both parties traditionally defer to governors to deploy their own National Guardsmen and request help from other states when it comes to natural disasters.") The way National Guard troops operate is not on a full-time active basis. In a disaster scenario, soldiers report from their normal full-time jobs and homes to base, receieve instructions and get to where they need to be to pick up gear and transportation. A 24 hour turnaround time would be remarkable - 72 hours minimum is more realistic. Troops did make it to the Superdome on September 2nd to restore order there. (Source: Associated Press, Defence Dept.)
Q: Did the state suffer because our the bulk of our regular troops are overseas in Iraq and Afghanistan?
A: No. It's the National Guard that's primarily tasked to disaster relief efforts in the country, and the majority of the National Guard is safely at home in the U.S (that's 300,000 troops). In Senator Bond's words: "Sixty-five percent of Louisiana's Guard members were available, and 60 percent of Mississippi's were available. There's still far more Guardsmen and women available than are overseas." Ironically, troops would have been faster and more effective on the scene if all they had to do was kill people and blow up stuff. But in this situation they've got to take their gear (because of the spate of lawlessness) plus haul tons of medicine, food and water with them. Logistics = time. (Source: The Mercury News)
Q: I heard that troops aren't allowing civilians into the city, or out of shelters like the Superdome. What's the deal?
A: A combination of factors make the city really dangerous right now. The one we all know about is the roving gangs of armed rapists and looters (though all of 5-7 people have actually reportedly been shot by law enforcement). Worse is the overflow of garbage, human waste from sewers and substations, chemical plants and tankers leaking into the water as well as the contamination from corpses of the drowned and murdered. It's likely that portions of the city may still be electrified, and water + electricity = danger. In a situation like this, as much as we may wish for individual responsibility and freedom it may be better to button everyone down for a while in contained areas while the disaster is managed. (Source: NZ Herald)
Q: Why was this disaster relief effort so badly bungled while 9/11 was run so well?
A: Combination of factors again. First and primarily, you have scale. National Guard historian Michael Doubler: "With the commitment of 20,000 National Guard troops at this early stage, this operation is already four or five times larger than the sustained National Guard response that followed the attacks on the World Trade Center on 9-11." Keep in mind that this is hardly just the city of New Orleans being affected. Much of both the states of Lousiana and Mississippi were hit hard - we're talking some 90,000 square miles. Just getting down to New Orleans is a monumental task in itself. Next you have the relative wealth of the state of New York versus Lousiana and Mississippi - both in the top three poorest states in the union. Sadly, that sort of thing does matter when it comes to disaster relief planning and the reaction during a crisis of the affected civilians. (Source: Army News Service)
Q: Why the hell do people live in a city below sea level that's at constant threat of hurricanes anyways? Why didn't they leave when warned?
A: Obviously we don't know exactly how the human mind works, but we do have a good idea about some things. Sociologists and psychologists use the term 'heuristics' to describe the mental strategies we've developed as a species for dealing with both reality and uncertainty. One of the most important is the so-called "availability heuristic," which has a lot do with memories of what we've experienced. "People who have lived through small hurricanes say, 'Well, I'm not going to evacuate, I've been through this one or that one,' without realizing that the past does not predict the future," says Kathleen Tierney, director of the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado. What they haven't been through is the next hurricane, which could be a lot worse. I highly encourage you all to read the article linked, and I'll also post it in a reply below. (Source: Toronto Star)
Q: Which heads are going to roll for the mismanagement of this whole affair?
Hard to come up with specifics this soon, but probably quite a few people. Homeland Security and FEMA messed up. People in the administration for the state of LA messed up. The local police force of New Orleans messed up. On the topic of George Bush Jr, I think it's safe to say that the President of the United States is not exactly well known for admitting errors when he's committed them, but then again nor is it reasonable to expect him to handpick and examine every single top candidate of every federal and state agency. You would think that a creation of his own like Homeland Security would have an indisputably credentialed staff, though. If you have a grievance, remember to take it to the polls in 2006.
Q: Will New Orleans be rebuilt?
A: Are you kidding me? Aside from being the port where 20% of America's shipped supplies come in, you're talking about a nation that practically defined itself with the spirit of rebellion and that the sky's the limit. To hell with if rebuilding the city in precariously placed land is smart or not, I expect the state to rebuild the city solely to stick it in Mother Nature's face.