OS,
Thanks for the post. It doesn't show that LA National Guard units were in Iraq instead of being available to help, but it does point out the increased risk of an extended deployment of the Guard units. It certainly was a much better response than what Zebo threw out.
In many ways, this is a no win situation. If the area's "first responders" were not activated and moved out of NO before the storm, then they would have not been available to help and you would have been calling on neighbouring states that were not hit by the storm.
The main need wasn't for 500 or so Guardsmen, it was for a massive delivery of food and water to the two main places where people had fled to enmasse - the Superdome and the Convention Center. The other need was to get into the city proper and rescue people trapped in houses and other buildings (who also probably did not have food and water as I bet most stored that in their kitchens which were quickly flooded). News reports showed locals and the Coast Guard pulling people out of houses pretty quickly.
So, unless there was a ready store of food and water already set aside, it would take time to get that together. It would require a fair amount of trucks and other transport and troops to protect the supplies once it became known that there was at least some real threat of armed thugs. The fact that there was no food and water prestaged at the places where the local government moved so many people is a huge act of folly.
What I don't understand it why some water couldn't have been rushed to those two locations via helicopter. A couple of loads of bottled water would have made a big difference. There might have been distribution problems (fights over the water), but one bottle will keep someone alive for days.
It will be interesting to see just home many people really died at both of the mass evacuation places. I would expect that most who died were in high risk groups - sick, old or very young and would have required almost immediate attention to stop. In a population of 40K or so, a certain amount of deaths over a week's time would have been normal as well, without even accounting for the weather extremes they were going through.
My expectations are that the vast majority of people would have died soon after the flooding started. This will be especially true in the lowest elevation areas where you would have had to get from the attic to the roof to be above water. If you didn't evacuate before the flooding started and didn't have a way of getting through the roof, it is quite possible to have drowned in your second floor or attic. I don't see how 500 or so first responders would have made much difference there.
I find much of the howling and finger pointing to be politically motivated. I'm worried that it'll descend into politically-charged blame shifting and witch-hunting instead of actually focusing on identifying what went wrong and what has to happen in the future.
As another comment, there is much being written about funding of the levees. First, anyone writing a funding request is going to detail all the dangers and other reasons why the funding is vital. That is a normal part of a funding request. The main levee that failed was fairly new and in very good condition and there is no proof at all that even if the full funding requests had been met that it would have made any difference. Once the levee failed to the huge extent it did, pumping would have made almost no difference.
Michael
The site address looks a little strange, but wiin posted this link and it has a decent timeline in it supported by outside sources:
Katrina Timeline
A few comments based on the link:
1) The LA National Guard did drop food and water off at the Superdome and the Mayor did tell people that were going there to bring their own and to treat it as a camping trip. This is not well reported and much of the mainstream media has been harping on how they had no food and water. True of the Convention Center (which was used as a collection point after the storm hit). Deaths in the Superdome are portrayed to be people who were already sick and frail before they went. Seems that I was wrong about no advance preparations being taken at the Superdome. Didn't seem to be lots of security there as major efforts to save lives were underway. Certainly bad living conditions in the Superdome due to heat but people were alive.
2) There were reasonably significant resources staged around the city and they were deployed as soon as the storm had passed over. This includes the US Army Corps of Engineers and the Coast Guard. The LA National Guard in the area were in the city almost right away. The ones that arrived in significant numbers later one were from nearby states.
3) Storm hit Monday morning. Looked like the city was spared the worst of what was expected. Some flooding from 17th street Canal, about 20% of city flooded. By Tuesday 80% was flooded and local officials were at a loss to explain why. I would guess most deaths occured here as people were trapped in their houses. Hard to see what could have been done to save them at this point. Efforts had already started on plugging the breaches but scale of breach and conditions in the city caused problems. Bush announced he was cutting short his vacation and had already made an announcement on the damage caused to the Gulf Coast.
4) Voluntary and then manditory evacuation orders issued by Mayor Nagin once the storm was upgraded to Cat 5. President Bush called and urged manditory evacuation. Seems to be good cooperation between Bush, Blanco and Nagin at this point.
5) Local resources appear to be overwhelmed from when the massive flooding started. Needed boats to get around many areas. Outside resources (National Guard) arrived about 2 days after storm hit, about 1 day after massive flooding and ramped up.
6) Looked like local and Federal efforts were not sufficient considering the scale of the flooding. Federal efforts were addressing Gulf Coast, not just NO. NO largest city and only area with lots of people to get very bad flooding.
7) Superdome evacuation ordered Tuesday night and started Wednesday night. Basically 2.5 days after the storm hit.
8) Gov. Blanco was asking Federal government to send more troops to free up National Guard for security purposes by Wednesday. Looting and violence had started soon after the storm hit and before the massive flooding. As it got worse, made it too hard to rescue people and keep security.
The timeline makes is clear that massive efforts started and results were happening almost right away. Disaster was so large that hard to make a dent early and civil order breakdown made it worse.
After reading timeline, I'm much less inclined towards anger at both local and Federal officials. Obviously there were screw-ups at all levels and some people should lose their jobs over it, but seems like political hatred and media circus is causing many of the perception problems.
- Michael