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Hurricane Frances - composite of latest tracking models

I'm not a "guru" but I do follow these storms as much as possible. What I do know is that you shouldn't focus on individual computer models because they are not perfect. Instead focus on the official forecast track by the NHC. From what I've seen though, the NOGAPS tends to be the least accurate as far as hurricanes go.
 
US Navy seems to IMO to really know whats up... being they still are the ones flying the storm tracker missions with modified P3 Orions into and around these Hurricanes
 
I don't want to be on I-26 with 250,000 other idiots.
I want to know how soon I have to leave to avoid the traffic.
 
Originally posted by: glen
I don't want to be on I-26 with 250,000 other idiots.
I want to know how soon I have to leave to avoid the traffic.
Click to expand...
Considering it's going to be a Saturday morning storm, leaving by tomorrow morning would be the best idea.

PS The NHC's Avilia says that GDS and GFDL are the most reliable
 
You should probably leave thursday morning. I *hope* the traffic wouldn't be too bad for you yet if you left at that time. I think I'm staying, but who knows.
 
Originally posted by: ViRGE
Originally posted by: glen
I don't want to be on I-26 with 250,000 other idiots.
I want to know how soon I have to leave to avoid the traffic.
Click to expand...
Considering it's going to be a Saturday morning storm, leaving by tomorrow morning would be the best idea.
Click to expand...

Unless I am reading the maps wrongly, It won't get to Charleston, SC till Sunday.
 
Originally posted by: glen
Originally posted by: ViRGE
Originally posted by: glen
I don't want to be on I-26 with 250,000 other idiots.
I want to know how soon I have to leave to avoid the traffic.
Click to expand...
Considering it's going to be a Saturday morning storm, leaving by tomorrow morning would be the best idea.
Click to expand...

Unless I am reading the maps wrongly, It won't get to Charleston, SC till Sunday.
Click to expand...
My bad, I thought he was in FL.
 
I live north of Columbus, GA. Looks like it won't even be a tropical storm by the time it gets here.

Guess I won't need to evacuate, but I'm going to tell the wife tommorrow to stock up on non-perishable foods.
 
Thought he lived in FL too, heh. Whoops. Well, with the yellow line thing. My dad was just showing me this cool site that showed animated tracking patterns of a bunch of famous hurricanes throughout the past five decades, and some of them have done some extremely bizzare paths. While highly unlikely, the yellow path could occur.
 
Originally posted by: klah
All of the models:

http://www.boatus.com/hurrican...urricane_spaghetti.asp
Click to expand...

What's sad about that is I could show 3rd graders maps showing the paths of some paths hurricanes have traveled in the past... give them a general idea... Show them where Frances is now, and the direction it's moving at this moment, and I'll bet the 3rd grade class would produce a map nearly identical to that one... so much for sophisticated predicting software... no better than a 3rd grader.

 
Originally posted by: DrPizza
Originally posted by: klah
All of the models:

http://www.boatus.com/hurrican...urricane_spaghetti.asp
Click to expand...

What's sad about that is I could show 3rd graders maps showing the paths of some paths hurricanes have traveled in the past... give them a general idea... Show them where Frances is now, and the direction it's moving at this moment, and I'll bet the 3rd grade class would produce a map nearly identical to that one... so much for sophisticated predicting software... no better than a 3rd grader.
Click to expand...


You really think so? Ok. Here's the historical tracks for you right
here. Good luck with that guess...:roll:
 
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