Hurricane Frances - composite of latest tracking models

[glen]

Hurricane models NOGAPS, GFS, BAM, UKMET, GFDL

 

[glen]

another map with these models

 

[Beau]

n.m.

 

[glen]

Beau - you happened to post during a 20 second period in which I was editing the URL.

 

[Xenon]

I'm not a "guru" but I do follow these storms as much as possible. What I do know is that you shouldn't focus on individual computer models because they are not perfect. Instead focus on the official forecast track by the NHC. From what I've seen though, the NOGAPS tends to be the least accurate as far as hurricanes go.

 

[pyonir]

what the hell is weater?

 

[glen]

"weater" is obviously a typo

 

[CVSiN]

US Navy seems to IMO to really know whats up... being they still are the ones flying the storm tracker missions with modified P3 Orions into and around these Hurricanes

 

[Avalon]

I live on the east coast and I'm skurred, lol.

 

[glen]

I don't want to be on I-26 with 250,000 other idiots.
I want to know how soon I have to leave to avoid the traffic.

 

[ViRGE]

Originally posted by: glen
I don't want to be on I-26 with 250,000 other idiots.
I want to know how soon I have to leave to avoid the traffic.

Considering it's going to be a Saturday morning storm, leaving by tomorrow morning would be the best idea.

PS The NHC's Avilia says that GDS and GFDL are the most reliable

 

[Avalon]

You should probably leave thursday morning. I *hope* the traffic wouldn't be too bad for you yet if you left at that time. I think I'm staying, but who knows.

 

[pulse8]

Originally posted by: glen
another map with these models

Who was the genius that predicted the yellow line?

 

[glen]

Originally posted by: ViRGE

Originally posted by: glen
I don't want to be on I-26 with 250,000 other idiots.
I want to know how soon I have to leave to avoid the traffic.

Considering it's going to be a Saturday morning storm, leaving by tomorrow morning would be the best idea.

Unless I am reading the maps wrongly, It won't get to Charleston, SC till Sunday.

 

[glen]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/gr...604W5+GIF/012053W5.gif

 

[MaxDepth]

My bunion sez:

landfall: Daytona - Saturday - 3:30 PM

You must respect the bunion.

 

[Carbo]

Hurricane Software

 

[ViRGE]

Originally posted by: glen

Originally posted by: ViRGE

Originally posted by: glen
I don't want to be on I-26 with 250,000 other idiots.
I want to know how soon I have to leave to avoid the traffic.

Considering it's going to be a Saturday morning storm, leaving by tomorrow morning would be the best idea.

Unless I am reading the maps wrongly, It won't get to Charleston, SC till Sunday.

My bad, I thought he was in FL.

 

[Xenon]

Originally posted by: pulse8

Originally posted by: glen
another map with these models

Who was the genius that predicted the yellow line?

Those aren't predictions they are computer models. There was obviously some sort of error on the output for that one.

 

[Ime]

I live north of Columbus, GA. Looks like it won't even be a tropical storm by the time it gets here.

Guess I won't need to evacuate, but I'm going to tell the wife tommorrow to stock up on non-perishable foods.

 

[slpaulson]

God damn.
My aunt lives in Oviedo, and it looks like this could hit her too.

 

[klah]

All of the models:

http://www.boatus.com/hurrican...urricane_spaghetti.asp

 

[Avalon]

Thought he lived in FL too, heh. Whoops. Well, with the yellow line thing. My dad was just showing me this cool site that showed animated tracking patterns of a bunch of famous hurricanes throughout the past five decades, and some of them have done some extremely bizzare paths. While highly unlikely, the yellow path could occur.

 

[DrPizza]

Originally posted by: klah
All of the models:

http://www.boatus.com/hurrican...urricane_spaghetti.asp

What's sad about that is I could show 3rd graders maps showing the paths of some paths hurricanes have traveled in the past... give them a general idea... Show them where Frances is now, and the direction it's moving at this moment, and I'll bet the 3rd grade class would produce a map nearly identical to that one... so much for sophisticated predicting software... no better than a 3rd grader.

 

[Xenon]

Originally posted by: DrPizza

Originally posted by: klah
All of the models:

http://www.boatus.com/hurrican...urricane_spaghetti.asp

What's sad about that is I could show 3rd graders maps showing the paths of some paths hurricanes have traveled in the past... give them a general idea... Show them where Frances is now, and the direction it's moving at this moment, and I'll bet the 3rd grade class would produce a map nearly identical to that one... so much for sophisticated predicting software... no better than a 3rd grader.

You really think so? Ok. Here's the historical tracks for you right
here. Good luck with that guess...:roll: