Hurricane Dorian thread

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Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,685
136
When I clicked on this thread I thought it was going to actually contain some information about the hurricane. You know information about the path, who will be affected, how strong it is expected to be at land fall ect....Maybe some information I missed but no it didn't

All I got out of this thread is a bunch of arm chair P&N nerds going off in a circle jerk about Trump and the destruction of his resort on the first page and then some bs about Venus, climate change, and percentages of climate change compared to Venus on the third page. Oh and course a little more Trump mockery peppered in for good measure. I didn't even bother reading the second page.

Jesus christ you guys......this whole thread is really sad. I know I'm going to get hammered for posting this opinion but IDC. You all managed to make a hurricane/natural disaster politically biased and that's disheartening.

Trump brings out the best in everybody, huh?

Dorian has been upgraded to cat 4, but it's still too far offshore & the steering winds too variable to say exactly what might happen. It might actually miss Florida.

https://spacecityweather.com/yes-theres-a-chance-hurricane-dorian-will-miss-florida/
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,842
4,785
146
When I clicked on this thread I thought it was going to actually contain some information about the hurricane. You know information about the path, who will be affected, how strong it is expected to be at land fall ect....Maybe some information I missed but no it didn't

All I got out of this thread is a bunch of arm chair P&N nerds going off in a circle jerk about Trump and the destruction of his resort on the first page and then some bs about Venus, climate change, and percentages of climate change compared to Venus on the third page. Oh and course a little more Trump mockery peppered in for good measure. I didn't even bother reading the second page.

Jesus christ you guys......this whole thread is really sad. I know I'm going to get hammered for posting this opinion but IDC. You all managed to make a hurricane/natural disaster politically biased and that's disheartening.

Trump is the new Hitler.

No - not that he resembles Hitler in the slightest....

He has simply fucked over Godwin's Law. He IS the new Godwin's law


It really is that sad and pathetic that there can be no discussion on any topic that doesn't bring him up. As if he is god/emperor of all walks of life - commander of all people and all acts.
 

BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
20,433
1,769
126
Trump brings out the best in everybody, huh?

Dorian has been upgraded to cat 4, but it's still too far offshore & the steering winds too variable to say exactly what might happen. It might actually miss Florida.

https://spacecityweather.com/yes-theres-a-chance-hurricane-dorian-will-miss-florida/
I pray, yes, literally pray this happens, my house, (built in 1973) has zero chance vs 140 MPH winds. Even cinder-block construction has no chance because the roof will inevitably be damaged or completely ripped off, exposing the home to the full fury. The pine trees throughout the neighborhood would all also be toppled, even a modern home built to a higher wind resistance might fall victim to debris of failing homes around it. I live about 2 miles, (as the crow flies) from the coast in the Daytona area, we will be forced to evacuate if cat 4 winds are expected, after seeing what hurricane Michael did to the panhandle last year staying out and trying to ride it out is insane IMO.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
74,744
6,761
126
Interesting observation that has nothing to do with the topic at hand. But since we're there, why are a few of you so defensive about a simple and reasonably accurate observation? I didn't make up those numbers, they came from a climate science site. And they are a little surprising, at least to me. It indicates that our atmosphere is at a very delicate balance. Why is this triggering anyone? These are simple observations, and grade school level math.
Well, of course, the topic at hand for me is the welfare of the people who post in this thread and anything I think I might know that I imagine might be of value to them. Personally, I have noted nothing our of the ordinary about delta and the rest of the math stuff, but noticed that people seemed to be reacting to each other with past posting history and you had been drawn into that. I wanted to give you my opinion on how I would try to look at myself had I been. I suggested two things I thought might apply with no actual opinion as to which might more apply. Maybe neither.
 

sdifox

No Lifer
Sep 30, 2005
100,260
17,900
126
Didn't say I doubted them, I said it was a big delta from a small change, and it is.
The first sentence is a zero sum. Those folks aren't devoting their lives any more than any other working person in the country. I also need to ask the obvious question, is there really thousands of scientists studying the problem? Thousands seems like a lot.


Thousands in billions is like one in a million.
 

BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
20,433
1,769
126
The latest track projection has it moving east a bit which would eliminate landfall in FL and put it in S.Carolina around Beaufort. Don't know what that means for wind, rain, surges etc. for the FL coast as it looks like it's going to still be really close.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/090017.shtml?gm_track#contents
Yea, if it's 20-30 miles offshore we will still get hammered, but it's a lot better than a direct strike, we've all seen from just last year with Michael laying waste to the Mexico beach area just how devastating this type of system is. With Dorian currently 200 miles wide it's problematic to say the least.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,858
31,346
146
The total change, expressed as a percentage of the entire atmosphere, is around .025%. Perhaps that's a great deal in physics, as a percentage it isn't all that much.

the simplest way to understand it is that it's a logarithmic scale, not linear.

The storm isn't stationary, and the energy input isn't just one thing--it's sucking up all that energy from various sources as it moves
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,858
31,346
146
Trump is the new Hitler.

No - not that he resembles Hitler in the slightest....

Trump is Mussolini, most people understand this. Do you know who Mussolini was?


He has simply fucked over Godwin's Law. He IS the new Godwin's law

yeah, about that...

vnkajkr21a811.jpg


I guess I have to remind you that this was in response to, I believe, Trump's first attempt to cage babies and lock asylum seekers into concentration camps. Or Trump's "Very fine people" comment regarding the actual Nazis at Charlottesville. ...so many Nazi events to pick from!
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
40,875
10,222
136
I guess I have to remind you that this was in response to, I believe, Trump's first attempt to cage babies and lock asylum seekers into concentration camps. Or Trump's "Very fine people" comment regarding the actual Nazis at Charlottesville. ...so many Nazi events to pick from!
Trump realizes (not in a calculated way, more in a semi-conscious way) that a significant part of his base is, well, base. IOW, they are people who are considered degenerate or politically incorrect, some highly so. He makes comments to assuage them, applying salve to their wounds. He figures this will gain him votes (also helps stuff the halls where he appears on a weekly basis if not more frequently).
 

BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
20,433
1,769
126
In hurricane Dorian news the forecast track has shifted significantly to the east, shows it passing by FL offshore enough to avoid hurricane force winds, lets hope this trend holds, she's just 5 MPH short of cat 5 status.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
72,865
33,929
136
We have an Outer Banks trip planned for a few weeks out. I hope Hwy 12 will still be there when we arrive. :p Last time we were there, the road crews were pushing up the dune every morning to keep the surf off the highway.
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
74,744
6,761
126
Didn't say I doubted them, I said it was a big delta from a small change, and it is.
The first sentence is a zero sum. Those folks aren't devoting their lives any more than any other working person in the country. I also need to ask the obvious question, is there really thousands of scientists studying the problem? Thousands seems like a lot.
I failed to mention why small imput large effects in weather aren't an odd idea to me. Are you familiar with the Butterfly Effect and Chaos Theory? If not check them out. Very interesting in my opinion
 

DarthKyrie

Golden Member
Jul 11, 2016
1,617
1,395
146
I failed to mention why small imput large effects in weather aren't an odd idea to me. Are you familiar with the Butterfly Effect and Chaos Theory? If not check them out. Very interesting in my opinion

The Butterfly Effect is actually part of Chaos Theory and you are correct that they are fascinating subjects. I see the world around me through Chaos Theory and it tends to drive you a little nutty.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
17,643
15,830
146
.12% energy increase from .025% atmospheric composition change. That's a big delta from a tiny change.

Is there a reason you feel that way? The explanation is pretty simple but the physics to calculate the magnitude of the effects are non-intuitive so you shouldn't expect a 1:1 relationship.

Let’s go over an example that might help you accept that fact. Sulfur dioxide is a chemical where a tiny amount can have a huge effect on climate. It will take a little bit of explaining to show why.

People intuitively know that the closer a planet is to the sun the more energy it receives and the warmer it is.

Mars is farther away than the Earth is so it’s colder while Mercury and Venus are closer so they are much warmer.

Now there’s a simple formula called the Stefan-Boltzmann Law that can be used to calculate how much energy the sun produces based on its surface temperature. The sun produces 3.846x10^26 watts. Divide that by the suns surface area and you get 63.15MW/m^2.

Using the fact that physics says energy is neither created nor destroyed we know if there are 3.846x10^26 watts on a sphere around the surface of the sun there are the same number of watts on a sphere with a radius equal to the distance from Mercury to the sun, from Venus to the sun, etc.

Since the spheres are much larger the energy per area must drop. Do some geometry and you can figure out about how much energy reaches each planet.

The following table shows how much solar energy per meter squared on average (S ave) reaches each of the inner planets.
1374177687088.jpg


So Mercury gets 6.7 times as much energy as we do. Venus gets 90% more and Mars only gets 42% as much as Earth.

Now since you are on Anandtech you are likely aware of how computers behave when they are put under load. At idle pulling 15w the CPU is at say 30C. When you run a benchmark and it pulls 100w the temperature ramps up to say 65C and stays there. That’s called steady state. When the benchmark ends and the power drops back to idle the temperature drops back down to a lower steady state.

At steady state, energy in equals energy out. What temperature you reach depends not only on the amount of energy but also the type of system. I’m sure you are familiar with incandescent bulbs. A 100w bulb may pull the same energy as our computer example but the temperature of the filament is over 4000F.

All thermal systems including planets follow this basic behavior.
Since we know how much energy reaches each planet, we known thermal systems will try and reach steady-state where energy in = energy out, and the only way for energy to leave a planet is via radiation. We can again use the Stefan–Boltzmann law to try and predict the average steady-state temperature of each planet.

If we try with Mercury we find that our predicted temperature is too high by about 10%. That leads me to explain another concept called a “black body”. The Stefan–Boltzmann law assumes the object in question is a black body. A black body is an object that absorbs all frequencies of light and radiates in all frequencies of light. A cold black body would look black in visible light, hence the term.

The sun very closely radiates as a black body. Mercury on the other hand does not. While being dark and absorbing most light from sun it does reflect about 10% of the light from the sun. If it didn’t we wouldn’t be able to see it in visible light. The light lost to reflection is called “albedo”. It’s the “alpha” on the chart above”

When we redo the calculation taking into account Mercury’s 10% albedo using only 90% of the energy coming from the sun we get an average planetary temperature of 437K (Tp above) which is very close to the observed temperature of ~440K (Tobs). That’s pretty good!

However when we redo those calculations for the other planets it under predicts the temperature by a little for Mars, a bit more for Earth, and is wildly wrong for Venus.

Venus gets less than a third of the energy of the sun that Mercury gets yet its almost 2 times as hot. Not only that but it’s albedo is an extremely high 75% meaning it actually receives less energy at the surface than Earth does!

If you’ve ever looked at Venus in the night sky it shouldn’t be a surprise that it has such a high albedo. Venus is very bright due to all the reflected sunlight.

78494333.jpg


So why does Venus reflect so much light?

Gibbous-Venus-from-Akatsuki.jpg


It’s from the all the light colored clouds. Which is where sulfur dioxide ( SO2) comes in. Those clouds are made from SO2 which forms droplets of sulfuric acid.

This next table includes the atmospheric pressures and compositions for each of the planets
1374177879538.jpg


Venus’s atmosphere is 96.5% carbon dioxide, 3.5% nitrogen and the rest are trace gases. According to the inter webs SO2 makes up 150PPM or 0.015% of the atmosphere.

So SO2 at 0.015% of the atmosphere can block 75% of the incoming solar energy.

Venus also shows what high pressure CO2 atmosphere can do. With significantly less energy reaching the surface than Earth the surface temperature is hot enough to melt lead.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
17,643
15,830
146
When I clicked on this thread I thought it was going to actually contain some information about the hurricane. You know information about the path, who will be affected, how strong it is expected to be at land fall ect....Maybe some information I missed but no it didn't

All I got out of this thread is a bunch of arm chair P&N nerds going off in a circle jerk about Trump and the destruction of his resort on the first page and then some bs about Venus, climate change, and percentages of climate change compared to Venus on the third page. Oh and course a little more Trump mockery peppered in for good measure. I didn't even bother reading the second page.

Jesus christ you guys......this whole thread is really sad. I know I'm going to get hammered for posting this opinion but IDC. You all managed to make a hurricane/natural disaster politically biased and that's disheartening.


Wow you thought the last page was about Venus. Can’t wait until you see my post above this one.
8Ko7pVa.png
 

Puffnstuff

Lifer
Mar 9, 2005
16,203
4,884
136
Seems as though Trump's enormous ego was enough to begin deflecting the storm away from a direct hit with FL. :p
 

Viper1j

Diamond Member
Jul 31, 2018
4,443
4,139
136
Is there a reason you feel that way? The explanation is pretty simple but the physics to calculate the magnitude of the effects are non-intuitive so you shouldn't expect a 1:1 relationship.

Let’s go over an example that might help you accept that fact. Sulfur dioxide is a chemical where a tiny amount can have a huge effect on climate. It will take a little bit of explaining to show why.

People intuitively know that the closer a planet is to the sun the more energy it receives and the warmer it is.

Mars is farther away than the Earth is so it’s colder while Mercury and Venus are closer so they are much warmer.

Now there’s a simple formula called the Stefan-Boltzmann Law that can be used to calculate how much energy the sun produces based on its surface temperature. The sun produces 3.846x10^26 watts. Divide that by the suns surface area and you get 63.15MW/m^2.

Using the fact that physics says energy is neither created nor destroyed we know if there are 3.846x10^26 watts on a sphere around the surface of the sun there are the same number of watts on a sphere with a radius equal to the distance from Mercury to the sun, from Venus to the sun, etc.

Since the spheres are much larger the energy per area must drop. Do some geometry and you can figure out about how much energy reaches each planet.

The following table shows how much solar energy per meter squared on average (S ave) reaches each of the inner planets.
1374177687088.jpg


So Mercury gets 6.7 times as much energy as we do. Venus gets 90% more and Mars only gets 42% as much as Earth.

Now since you are on Anandtech you are likely aware of how computers behave when they are put under load. At idle pulling 15w the CPU is at say 30C. When you run a benchmark and it pulls 100w the temperature ramps up to say 65C and stays there. That’s called steady state. When the benchmark ends and the power drops back to idle the temperature drops back down to a lower steady state.

At steady state, energy in equals energy out. What temperature you reach depends not only on the amount of energy but also the type of system. I’m sure you are familiar with incandescent bulbs. A 100w bulb may pull the same energy as our computer example but the temperature of the filament is over 4000F.

Does steady state have a time factor? A CPU under load will heat up much faster than will cool off when the load is removed. Does the time between the two become a factor in any of that?

If it does, could the severity of a storm be reduced by changing one of the factors? Taking a boiling kettle off the stove so to speak
 

BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
20,433
1,769
126
Wow you thought the last page was about Venus. Can’t wait until you see my post above this one.
8Ko7pVa.png
He has a point, I hate Trump as much as anyone, but for the love of God why must that epic douche be involved with a thread about a massive, raging storm threatening millions of people?. Don't get me wrong, I love science and astronomy but unless it relates to the topic at hand it should be left out, just my $.02.
 

Viper1j

Diamond Member
Jul 31, 2018
4,443
4,139
136
He has a point, I hate Trump as much as anyone, but for the love of God why must that epic douche be involved with a thread about a massive, raging storm threatening millions of people?. Don't get me wrong, I love science and astronomy but unless it relates to the topic at hand it should be left out, just my $.02.

Maybe because he's partially responsible for it's severity? Which is a big part of wanting every single one of his businesses and properties to be flattened and utterly destroyed.
 

BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
20,433
1,769
126
Does steady state have a time factor? A CPU under load will heat up much faster than will cool off when the load is removed. Does the time between the two become a factor in any of that?

If it does, could the severity of a storm be reduced by changing one of the factors? Taking a boiling kettle off the stove so to speak
Probably, but there is no practical way to modify the heat energy stored in the ocean, would be nice if was possible though.
 

Paratus

Lifer
Jun 4, 2004
17,643
15,830
146
Does steady state have a time factor? A CPU under load will heat up much faster than will cool off when the load is removed. Does the time between the two become a factor in any of that?

If it does, could the severity of a storm be reduced by changing one of the factors? Taking a boiling kettle off the stove so to speak

It does and it depends heavily on the system. It’s also why if we stopped greenhouse gas emission tomorrow the Earth would continue to heat for awhile. We are still on the ramp up.

As for storms the only two ways I know to reduce the intensity is for shear to pick up or for the storm to encounter cooler water.

If a storm doesn’t move fasten enough it can pull enough energy out of the water and churn up enough cooler water that it will start to lose intensity.

If we reduced greenhouse gases in the atmosphere thermal radiation would escape easier and ocean temperatures would start to fall depriving hurricanes of extra heat.

Allowing the rainforests to basically double in size would pull about 50PPM of CO2 out of the atmosphere. That would take the rest of the century however.
 
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