Hurricane Dorian thread

[Muse]

So..Dorian has pretty much bypassed PR, and is now headed closer to Mar-a- Lago. If the storm actually hits Mar-a-lago, I'm sure we'll be seeing Trump tweets about how he was treated so unfairly by the hurricane. I'm sure he would just sign an executive order to rebuild it using real gold instead of gold spray paint.

It would be almost too much to hope for that it levels Mar-a-lago. Some serious karmic blowback! TBH, it would be all but poetic if DC were devastated. That might motivate legislators to do something impactful to address the global warming crisis they've been dismissing (the Republicans sure have).

 

[UNCjigga]

Off topic, I never understood the ocean temperature thing relating to storms. Do the storms somehow suck the energy out of the Ocean?
Is the water cooler after a big storm because of this?

I was curious, so I googled it. First link had the answer, but the site was using unsafe certificates so I won't link it, will copy pasta instead:

Hurricanes are intense low pressure areas that form over warm ocean waters in the summer and early fall. Their source of energy is water vapor which is evaporated from the ocean surface.

Water vapor is the "fuel" for the hurricanes because it releases the "latent heat of condensation" when it condenses to form clouds and rain, warming the surrounding air. (This heat energy was absorbed by the water vapor when it was evaporated from the warm ocean surface, cooling the ocean in the process.)

Usually, the heat released in this way in tropical thunderstorms is carried away by wind shear, which blows the top off the thunderstorms. But when there is little wind shear, this heat can build up, causing low pressure to form. The low pressure causes wind to begin to spiral inward toward the center of the low.

These winds help to evaporate even more water vapor from the ocean, spiraling inward toward the center, feeding more showers and thunderstorms, and warming the upper atmosphere still more. The showers and thunderstorms where all of this energy is released are usually organized into bands (sometimes called "rainbands" or "feeder bands"), as well as into an "eyewall" encircling the center of the storm. The eyewall is where the strongest winds occur, which encircle the warmest air, in the eye of the hurricane. This warmth in the eye is produced by sinking air, which sinks in response to rising air in the thunderstorms. The winds diminish rapidly moving from the eyewall to the inside of the relatively cloud-free eye, where calm winds can exist.
...
Hurricanes gradually die as they move over cooler waters, which do not have the heat energy necessary to evaporate sufficent water vapor into the atmosphere to fuel the hurricane. If the hurricane crosses over to land, the heat source is removed entirely. With the removal of the energy source, and the greater surface friction of the land's terrain and vegetation, the hurricane's winds rapidly decrease.

 

[Jaskalas]

The increase in temperatures on the ocean surface has caused the storms to get much stronger much faster. That's part of the issue recently. We are seeing more, much larger storms.

Counting storms? Thanks to modern sat imagery they're counting faint swirls out in the middle of nowhere. That no one would have ever recorded before.

The real picture is from the full data set. And before you start, it does indicate a moderate increase in ACE values, if not hurricane count.

 

[zinfamous]

I know this is unpopular, he is sort of right. PR has an amazingly inept leadership. Money is continually wasted.
HOWEVER that doesn’t mean they don’t deserve aid/assistance.

it's the game of distraction. His comments are wholly irrelevant.

 

[Muse]

Counting storms? Thanks to modern sat imagery they're counting faint swirls out in the middle of nowhere. That no one would have ever recorded before.

The real picture is from the full data set. And before you start, it does indicate a moderate increase in ACE values, if not hurricane count.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season had an approximate ACE of about 129 (x104 knots2) which is greater than the 1981-2010 average value of 104 (x104 knots2).

 

[K1052]

Some of the southern model tracks on this somewhat concerning for a potential double strike on the US.

 

[VRAMdemon]

It would be almost too much to hope for that it levels Mar-a-lago. Some serious karmic blowback! TBH, it would be all but poetic if DC were devastated. That might motivate legislators to do something impactful to address the global warming crisis they've been dismissing (the Republicans sure have).

If the storm is heading to Mar-a-Lago - Maybe we should reconsider that whole 'drop a nuke on it' thing?

Then suddenly the money that had been diverted from FEMA to border security will magically find its way back to disaster assistance. Then there will be a big ass Telethon, hosted by Sean "The Big Giant Head" Hannity. 24 hour non-stop pleading for money, with Kid Rock, Gary Busey, Kanye West, and...back to Kid Rock.

 

[Jhhnn]

Some of the southern model tracks on this somewhat concerning for a potential double strike on the US.

Mar-a-lago first, across Florida, gain strength in the gulf & onward to the great state of Texas...

 

[theeedude]

Mar-A-Lago and Trump National Golf Course about to feel the wrath of nature, and the fool is asking for more today:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/29/methane-pollution-rule-trump-administration-1692262

The Trump administration will seek to roll back rules limiting methane pollution from oil and gas production, gutting a regulation put in place under President Barack Obama that was designed to curb emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas.

The move is the latest by the Trump administration to eliminate rules designed to fight climate change despite the rising temperatures that saw July set a record as the hottest month on the books, as Arctic ice melting accelerates and forest fires rage around the globe.

 

[Paratus]

I was curious, so I googled it. First link had the answer, but the site was using unsafe certificates so I won't link it, will copy pasta instead:

Hurricanes are intense low pressure areas that form over warm ocean waters in the summer and early fall. Their source of energy is water vapor which is evaporated from the ocean surface.

Water vapor is the "fuel" for the hurricanes because it releases the "latent heat of condensation" when it condenses to form clouds and rain, warming the surrounding air. (This heat energy was absorbed by the water vapor when it was evaporated from the warm ocean surface, cooling the ocean in the process.)

Usually, the heat released in this way in tropical thunderstorms is carried away by wind shear, which blows the top off the thunderstorms. But when there is little wind shear, this heat can build up, causing low pressure to form. The low pressure causes wind to begin to spiral inward toward the center of the low.

These winds help to evaporate even more water vapor from the ocean, spiraling inward toward the center, feeding more showers and thunderstorms, and warming the upper atmosphere still more. The showers and thunderstorms where all of this energy is released are usually organized into bands (sometimes called "rainbands" or "feeder bands"), as well as into an "eyewall" encircling the center of the storm. The eyewall is where the strongest winds occur, which encircle the warmest air, in the eye of the hurricane. This warmth in the eye is produced by sinking air, which sinks in response to rising air in the thunderstorms. The winds diminish rapidly moving from the eyewall to the inside of the relatively cloud-free eye, where calm winds can exist.
...
Hurricanes gradually die as they move over cooler waters, which do not have the heat energy necessary to evaporate sufficent water vapor into the atmosphere to fuel the hurricane. If the hurricane crosses over to land, the heat source is removed entirely. With the removal of the energy source, and the greater surface friction of the land's terrain and vegetation, the hurricane's winds rapidly decrease.

Off topic, I never understood the ocean temperature thing relating to storms. Do the storms somehow suck the energy out of the Ocean?
Is the water cooler after a big storm because of this?

Here’s a good chart of Dorian from the Category 6 blog on Wunderground.

Figure 3. Oceanic heat content—an important factor in rapid intensification—will be greater than 75 kilojoules per square centimeter along Dorian's projected track much of Thursday, and above 50 until the hurricane reaches Florida. Such values are commonly associated with rapid intensification of hurricanes. The numbers within each icon show the hours ahead of the forecast issuance time (5 am EDT Thursday). Image credit: CIRA/RAMMB/CSU.

If you remember your basic physics heat wants to flow from high temperature areas to low temperature areas. Heat from the sun falls off with cosine of the angle to the sun to the ground. So the equator gets most of the heat and the poles get very little. This drives gross atmospheric and oceanic currents from the equator to the poles.

Hurricanes form where there’s lots of warm water and then carry that energy towards the poles.

As UNC wrote the warmer the water the more energy available to drive evaporation and the stronger the hurricane.

Currently the gulf sea surface temperatures are warmer by about a half to one degree C than the average from 1984-1993 according to NOAA.

Why is the water warmer now than it was 25 - 30 years ago?

Climate change has added quite a lot of heat to the oceans.

If you aren’t sure how much energy that is here’s a comparison I did for the nuking of a hurricane thread:

Just so folks understand the relative amounts of energy involved here.

• Atomic Bomb (Hiroshima): 6.3x10^13 joules of energy
• Tsar Bomba (largest bomb ever detonated): 2.4x10^17 joules
• Average Hurricane - Rain formation: 5.2x10^19joules/day + 1.2x10^17joules/day of wind kinetic energy.
• Increase in Ocean Heat Content 0-2000m over the last 50 years from global warming: 3.4x10^23joules.

So your average hurricane is putting out the equivalent of about 10 A-bombs a second or 1 Tsar Bomba every 6.5-7.0 minutes.

The increase in ocean heat could provide enough energy for an extra hurricane every day for 18 years. (Or the equivalent of detonating 3+ Tsar Bombas per hour or 205 A-Bombs per minute for 50 years).

So that’s why Dorian has more energy available for potential intensification.

 

[Paratus]

@ElFenix
@s0me0nesmind1

Wasn’t Ike supposed to hit Florida and then totally missed and hit Houston?

Shit Yup
Dorian Projected:

Ike:
Predicted

Where it went

 

[Maxima1]

More energy available for potential intensification.

Wind shear is also important, and for a long time this made the net effect of global warming a ? on Atlantic hurricanes. I believe now the weight of evidence is that wind shear won't change such that it'll sap hurricane development.

 

[BonzaiDuck]

I know that there have been protests against he governor and he was forced to resign. Some in his admin were arrested by the FBI for corruption. I don't know how widespread it is though. Plus it's well known that the President of PR is corrupt.

Well, if such is the case -- that the governor was corrupt and the people forced him to resign -- it would mean that PR is NOT the most corrupt place on the planet, would it not?

Since Trump has been inquiring about dropping nuclear bombs into hurricanes, I have a suggestion.

The next hurricane to occur, if it makes a bee-line for Mara-Lago, should be a true test of Trump's brilliance. He should go to Mara-Lago, and drop the bomb when the eye of the storm is right on top.

The only better idea I had for making America Great Again was this one.

He should go on Sesame Street with a loaded Glock 9mm, shoot Big-Bird, and then blow his own brains out after he tells the studio to disable their 3-second delay.

That should solve our problem for a hundred years. It might be hard on the kids, but it had always been said of psy-war and propaganda that it was a "prophylactic" which produced great savings in military hardware costs. The kids will be inoculated. Future electorates will be sane.

 

[BUTCH1]

Track now has landfall around Vero beach then slowing to a crawl, this is bad because that will cause huge flood problems and tree fall once root systems are flooded and then the tree's start falling.

 

[Viper1j]

Dorian is now officially a hurricane and forecast to impact the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico over the next 24 hours. It turned north, likely sparing PR a direct landfall. Will likely got Florida this weekend as a Category 3 unless it continues turning up through the gulf stream towards the mid-Atlantic.

Our stable genius is tweeting this ahead of the hurricane:

In the best of all possible scenarios, Hurricane Dorian will wash away Mar-A-Lago far, far out into the middle of the Gulf.. Never to be seen again.

 

[Greenman]

It still blows my mind that such a tiny change in atmospheric composition can have such an enormous effect on energy levels.

 

[Paratus]

It still blows my mind that such a tiny change in atmospheric composition can have such an enormous effect on energy levels.

Well it’s only causing us to retain 0.12% more energy from the sun. But when the sun transmits 174.6 Petawatts of power to the Earth......

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

@ElFenix
@s0me0nesmind1

Wasn’t Ike supposed to hit Florida and then totally missed and hit Houston?

Shit Yup
Dorian Projected:

Ike:
Predicted

Where it went

Yeah to be honest I was in college at the time out in San Marcos at the time, so I wasn't even paying attention much to Ike.

The storm I remember the most growing up in life was definitely Tropical Storm Allison. Now Harvey probably took that over.

 

[theeedude]

Looks like a direct hit on Bribe-A-Lago incoming.

Watch Trump bail himself out with taxpayer money.

 

[VRAMdemon]

Looks like a direct hit on Bribe-A-Lago incoming.
View attachment 10209
Watch Trump bail himself out with taxpayer money.

Florida gets the extra-absorbent double-ply paper towels.

 

[ElFenix]

Track now has landfall around Vero beach then slowing to a crawl, this is bad because that will cause huge flood problems and tree fall once root systems are flooded and then the tree's start falling.

that's kinda what harvey did. and allison back in 2002.

 

[Kaido]

RIP Florida

https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/hurricane-dorian-august-2019/index.html

 

[K1052]

NHC upgraded to Cat 3 a bit ago.

King tide also hitting now through the next few days so timing is really poor.

 

[Muse]

Mar-A-Lago and Trump National Golf Course about to feel the wrath of nature, and the fool is asking for more today:
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/29/methane-pollution-rule-trump-administration-1692262

Hmm, just looked up Mar-a-Lago, it's in Palm Beach. That is just about smack dab between the two projected likely bulls-eyes for Dorian, i.e. the USA and the European computer modeling. Guess it may indeed be wiped off the map. I think I'd do a little jig.

Direct hit quite possible! Some I told you so for the POTUS courtesy of the Chineez Hokes. Could be Cat 5 too. King tides too. Oh boy.

 

[Thump553]

Looks like a direct hit on Bribe-A-Lago incoming.
View attachment 10209
Watch Trump bail himself out with taxpayer money.

Remember Trump still has the option to nuke it.