How would an AMD bankruptcy affect the graphics market?

[Arkadrel]

100mil up front sounds like to big a order.
Keysplayr has a point, about Xbox360 sales being ~77.2mil in 7years & 3months time.

Even if you expected the new xbox to sell better than the last model did, that order sounds huge.

Im guessing it ll be closer to 10-15 million pr year or something, for xbox, with the first order being slightly bigger to cover the first rush.


*** that said, economy has been a mess last 6years more or less,... hopefully the future is brighter.

 

[sontin]

Sony and Microsoft sold around 20 - 25 million consoles per year together. Going with the $60 number that should bring $1,2 to $1,5 billions in revenue.

But this assumes that AMD is producing and selling the APUs to MS and Sony.

 

[raghu78]

Sony and Microsoft sold around 20 - 25 million consoles per year together. Going with the $60 number that should bring $1,2 to $1,5 billions in revenue.

But this assumes that AMD is producing and selling the APUs to MS and Sony.

this is confirmed now by analysts who follow AMD. also based on facts the x86 license cannot be licensed to sony / microsoft.

 

[Keysplayr]

So at $60 per chip AMD only sees $10 profit per chip after fab and R&D expenses? And sales only get slower year after year After the initial mad rush. Best case scenario is @ $250 million in profit the first year for AMD? Better than nothing I suppose.

 

[blackened23]

Great, another thread to avoid which is headed to full-stupidity status.

 

[sontin]

We will see in Q3 and Q4.
BTW: This does not mean that AMD get a bigger profit from selling the APUs. I assume that MS and Sony only paying the same "license fee" like they did in the last generation.

 

[Ajay]

Great, another thread to avoid which is headed to full-stupidity status.

AT Hardware and Technology == P&N for geeks? 😕

 

[Keysplayr]

Great, another thread to avoid which is headed to full-stupidity status.

What are you on about?
The thread is going along in a civil manner.
Also, you could have pre-emtively "avoided"
The thread by not posting in it at all.
Thanks for the interruption and subsequent derailment though.

 

[Ajay]

What are you on about?
The thread is going along in a civil manner.
Also, you could have pre-emtively "avoided"
The thread by not posting in it at all.
Thanks for the interruption and subsequent derailment though.

Speculating on speculation using guess work numbers and unfounded theoretical outcomes. Sounds kosher to me. I do it too, but there come a limit and this is one of those threads that seems to have passed that limit. With a couple of more hard numbers, it could be an excellent thread topic.

 

[Ajay]

The GPU division is tied with the CPU division today. So either both floats or both goes under. And the CPU division is what put the entire part in danger. 750mio/Q revenue now. Thats simply too low to substain it.

Bing Bing Bing! And the winnar is the man with the cat avatar.

 

[raghu78]

So at $60 per chip AMD only sees $10 profit per chip after fab and R&D expenses? And sales only get slower year after year After the initial mad rush. Best case scenario is @ $250 million in profit the first year for AMD? Better than nothing I suppose.

the exact profit per chip would not be revealed by AMD to the public. AMD will maybe report the revenue separately under semi custom business unit which was recently announced.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/amd-t...ough-semi-custom-business-unit-20130502-00001

 

[ams23]

you are looking at 20 million consoles sold per year (PS4 and Xbox next) starting from Q4 2013.

Consoles units sold moving forward is highly unpredictable due in part to the disruptive effective of rapidly improving handheld mobile devices such as tablets and smartphones. We've already seen that Wii U is less successful than Wii, PS3 is less successful than PS2, PS Vita is less successful than PSP (Xbox360 is an exception compared to Xbox, due in part to the introduction of Kinect). And for high end consoles such as Playstation Next and Xbox Next, the number of units sold only starts to pick up in later years due to having substantial price reductions and due to having a more robust selection of games. So don't expect any miracles at launch.

 

[ams23]

its nvidia whose long term situation is in danger. the dgpu market is going to shrink to the point where the cost of R&D for future generation GPUs will become unsustainable. Intel Haswell and AMD Kaveri are going to be the beginning of the marginalization of the dGPU market as we know it today. in 5 years time it will be a done deal.

You are misguided to believe this. NVIDIA's massive investments in Tegra will put them in a better position moving forward, not worse. Discrete GPU's will evolve to include CPU cores integrated on die (among other things). And in the near future, ARM CPU processors will be fast enough, fully featured enough, and pervasive enough that very few people will care about x86 vs. ARM ISA.

 

[raghu78]

You are misguided to believe this. NVIDIA's massive investments in Tegra will put them in a better position moving forward, not worse. Discrete GPU's will evolve to include CPU cores integrated on die (among other things). And in the near future, ARM CPU processors will be fast enough, fully featured enough, and pervasive enough that very few people will care about x86 vs. ARM ISA.

the ARM market is a difficult place to survive. Companies like Texas Instruments quit because they found the going tough. In the long run Apple, Samsung and Qualcomm might survive. Nvidia's Tegra revenues fell 50% QoQ and 22% YoY. This is a sign that its not easy going in the ARM market. Qualcomm is dominating the ARM landscape, followed by Apple and Samsung. Qualcomm took the next gen Google Nexus and Suface RT design wins from Nvidia.

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-rele...enue-soared-60-percent-in-2012-206899241.html

But the biggest threat to the ARM crowd is from Intel who are going to turn the screws starting with 22nm Silvermont/Baytrail. the 28nm A15 chips are slower than the 5 year old Atom on 32nm. A 22nm next gen Atom product on an industry leading 22nm FINFET process is a nightmare for the ARM crowd. this coupled with the Intel tick tock cadence means the smallers companies will have to pack up and go home.

 

[sontin]

nVidia's revenue fell because they only sell one product. With every refresh cycle their business will drop very hard.

That's the reason why they pushed Tegra 4i 6 months earlier into the market.

 

[ams23]

the ARM market is a difficult place to survive.

The graphics market is an even more difficult place to survive (read up on the history of graphics around the time that NVIDIA's graphics business was in it's nascent stages). 😀 Anyway, visual computing and graphics are becoming more and more important in SoC designs, and that is NVIDIA's area of expertise.

Nvidia's Tegra revenues fell 50% QoQ and 22% YoY.

Tegra revenues have grown substantially for the last two full fiscal years (FY11 to FY12, and FY12 to FY13), while Tegra revenues in FY14 will be about the same as FY13 but are expected to grow again in FY15. Tegra revenues have historically fluctuated the most on a quarter-to-quarter basis when prior gen Tegra production ramps down in anticipation of next gen Tegra production ramping up. Since Tegra 4 was delayed by three months, and since Tegra 4 mass production will not start until late Q2-Q3 2013 (calendar date), there will be a dip in Tegra revenue for Q1-Q2 2014 (fiscal date), but the Tegra revenue will trend upward again in Q3-Q4 2014 (fiscal date).

But the biggest threat to the ARM crowd is from Intel who are going to turn the screws starting with 22nm Silvermont/Baytrail

You act like the ARM licensees and their production partners are standing still, and they most certainly are not 😀 And just as Intel will be a threat to ARM in Android devices in the near future, ARM will be a threat to Intel in Windows devices in the near future, so it works both ways.

 

[3DVagabond]

We will see in Q3 and Q4.
BTW: This does not mean that AMD get a bigger profit from selling the APUs. I assume that MS and Sony only paying the same "license fee" like they did in the last generation.

No. AMD can't license it to them like the last time. AMD has to sell them chips because of the x86 license with Intel.

 

[Ice_Dragon]

To me there will always be a market for discrete cards although as time goes on, it will be more of a catering to high-end stuff only I feel. Games are only going to get more demanding as well as some other programs that rely on video memory. In order for them to be blazingly fast, you are going to need good cards.

Intel only graphics will be fine for a majority of consumers who are satisfied going at say 65-70 MPH although there are those that want to go 120+ (200 KPH or so).

 

[3DVagabond]

To me there will always be a market for discrete cards although as time goes on, it will be more of a catering to high-end stuff only I feel. Games are only going to get more demanding as well as some other programs that rely on video memory. In order for them to be blazingly fast, you are going to need good cards.

Intel only graphics will be fine for a majority of consumers who are satisfied going at say 65-70 MPH although there are those that want to go 120+ (200 KPH or so).

As the market for dGPU shrinks, so will the funds for R&D, until there isn't enough funding to maintain it.

 

[Ice_Dragon]

As the market for dGPU shrinks, so will the funds for R&D, until there isn't enough funding to maintain it.

So you think Intel is the only one going to be left standing in 10 years maybe?

I can't picture a world without discrete graphics, am I wrong to think so?

 

[blackened23]

Speculating on speculation using guess work numbers and unfounded theoretical outcomes. Sounds kosher to me. I do it too, but there come a limit and this is one of those threads that seems to have passed that limit. With a couple of more hard numbers, it could be an excellent thread topic.

This pretty much nails it on the head. If the subtle potshots supported by zero facts (ie speculation on top of speculation) is a civil and rational discussion, then, okay.

 

[3DVagabond]

So you think Intel is the only one going to be left standing in 10 years maybe?

I don't know who's going to be around in 10yrs.

I can't picture a world without discrete graphics, am I wrong to think so?

What's the big deal with dGPU going away? Eventually everything will be on a single chip and will be better than all of the discrete components we have now. That's progress.

 

[badb0y]

Tegra is done. Intel is mad now and actually focusing on mobile chips.

Good job waking up the gorilla ARM, RIP.

 

[SlickR12345]

100 million up front huh? You think Microsoft is going to order a hundred million APU's from AMD when the Xbox360 still hasn't reached 80 million console sales after 8 years of availability? How so?

ups, I meant to write 5 to 10 million upfront.

 

[dagamer34]

People seem to forget that there are two different types of bankruptcy: Chapter 7 is liquidation (fire sale of all assets) and Chapter 11 is business reorganization (you come to an agreement with your creditors on a reduced amount you should owe, with the hope that a company that continues on will pay you back more than liquidated assets would).