How would an AMD bankruptcy affect the graphics market?

[canadiantrex]

As it is, having two is not enough. An AMD bankruptcy would be terrible. Competition is great.

Think about this; we only have Pepsi and Coca Cola. What happened to RC? Jolt? so on and so forth.

RC is owned by the same company that makes 7-UP. I still get 6 packs and 2-liters of RC quite regularly at the local grocery store when they're on sale. 😎

 

[Rvenger]

Anything under $5 is considered a penny stock and wildly unreliable.

$4.26 right now. At the rate of these increases, your argument will be invalid by next week.

 

[Jhatfie]

$4.26 right now. At the rate of these increases, your argument will be invalid by next week.

Certainly hope so, got my shares at $2.42/share.

 

[Siberian]

$4.26 right now. At the rate of these increases, your argument will be invalid by next week.

Their stock is way down from a year ago. Not that any increase matters. The real issue is their revenue and assetts have declined while their debt has increased. This is what drives a company to its grave, not stock prices.

 

[Ice_Dragon]

RC is owned by the same company that makes 7-UP. I still get 6 packs and 2-liters of RC quite regularly at the local grocery store when they're on sale. 😎

No kidding. I don't think I have seen it in NJ in years.

 

[ultimatebob]

I would think that AMD would need to shut down all of their unprofitable product lines if they went to bankruptcy court. Forget about seeing another $800 video card from them for awhile.

 

[Sleepingforest]

I would think that AMD would need to shut down all of their unprofitable product lines if they went to bankruptcy court. Forget about seeing another $800 video card from them for awhile.

I thought that one of their ONLY profitable departments was GPU?

 

[canadiantrex]

No kidding. I don't think I have seen it in NJ in years.

I see it in Walmart, Winn-Dixie, and Publix every time I'm grocery shopping here in Florida.

 

[PrincessFrosty]

If AMD went bankrupt what happens to the graphics market would largely depend on what happens to AMDs assets. If Nvidia bought up the GPU division they'd have a monopoly on the discreet GPU market. Short term we'd likely see prices balloon out of control as gamers would be left with no other viable gaming cards.

Long term we'd also possibly see Nvidia move towards more propiatary technology to keep their hold over the market, that means stuff like PhysX would become the defacto norm making it harder for other potential hardware developers to bring competition back to the market.

If someone else bought AMDs graphcis division, like Intel, I'm sure we'd see a period of instability followed by back to business as usual. AMD buying ATI was a pretty smooth transition I don't see why that couldn't happen again.

 

[Black Octagon]

How would an AMD bankruptcy affect the graphics market?

We would have one less pain-in-the-wahoowa religious war distracting us on internet forums?

 

[NIGELG]

We would have a lot of happy people on this forum.....

 

[Keysplayr]

Probably would.

 

[bononos]

We would have a lot of happy people on this forum.....

I wouldn't be too quick to say that since not having a major competitor would remove a big reason for seeding forums with viral marketers, don't you think?

 

[raghu78]

AMD is definitely going to be around. the next gen consoles would assure AMD's sustenance. you are looking at 20 million consoles sold per year (PS4 and Xbox next) starting from Q4 2013. at USD 60 per chip thats 1.2 billion revenue. even a meagre usd 10 profit per APU means USD 200 million profit per year. With Temash AMD will finally be able to address the tablet market. Kaveri and Kabini should improve AMD's current situation. for AMD they are at a rock bottom now. from here on the road is much better.

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtrader...uy-bad-pc-market-notwithstanding/?mod=BOLBlog

its nvidia whose long term situation is in danger. the dgpu market is going to shrink to the point where the cost of R&D for future generation GPUs will become unsustainable. Intel Haswell and AMD Kaveri are going to be the beginning of the marginalization of the dGPU market as we know it today. in 5 years time it will be a done deal.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1423521-nvidia-stumbles-on-the-next-generation-tegra

"The longer term trend is that the discrete GPU is a dead end for mainstream Intel platforms, and I doubt that the specialty applications that Nvidia is exploiting to good effect will offset the decline in the PC discrete GPU market."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1436801-nvidia-margins-continue-to-defy-gravity

"Integrated GPU Risk - Nvidia's core discrete GPU segment faces risk from integrated GPUs sold by Intel and AMD. Intel is set to drastically improve graphics performance with its new Haswell processors, while AMD's APU's are also delivering good performance for the mid range of the GPU market. While Nvidia possesses tremendous advantages in the professional and gaming GPU segments, this risk continues to be a serious overhang on NVDA's valuation."

so even though Nvidia is in a comfortable position now the future is going to be difficult. eventually Nvidia's best bet is to get acquired by Intel. That combined company will be a unbelievably powerful company.

 

[Gikaseixas]

We would see less releases and higher prices. Marketing teams do talk about lowering prices more often when there's a competitor in the market.

 

[hawtdawg]

Intel or someone else would surely buy the ATI portion of AMD before AMD had to shut its doors.

 

[3DVagabond]

Intel or someone else would surely buy the ATI portion of AMD before AMD had to shut its doors.

In order for that to happen AMD would have to sell it to them. That's not going to happen.

Besides, the question is what would happen if AMD went bankrupt, and by bankrupt, I assume the OP means, out of business. Not reorganization, etc... Which of course would happen before any of the other scenarios played out.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Intel or someone else would surely buy the ATI portion of AMD before AMD had to shut its doors.

The GPU division is tied with the CPU division today. So either both floats or both goes under. And the CPU division is what put the entire part in danger. 750mio/Q revenue now. Thats simply too low to substain it.

 

[raghu78]

The GPU division is tied with the CPU division today. So either both floats or both goes under. And the CPU division is what put the entire part in danger. 750mio/Q revenue now. Thats simply too low to substain it.

the next gen game console APU revenue alone is expected to be USD 300 million in Q4 2013. this revenue is going to increase in 2014 and could go upto USD 400 million per quarter. margins are in the high end of AMD client APU range. so good profits too. Also with new products like Temash, Kabini in Q2 2013 and Kaveri in Q4 2013 revenue from APUs should improve.

 

[Keysplayr]

Anyone know how much AMD will be making per console? PS4 and Xbox 720 each?

How many years do you think it would take to sell enough consoles to earn AMD 300 million? How many consoles is that?

On average, how many PS3's and Xbox 320's sold per year since they launched?

According to this one source:
http://www.digitaltrends.com/gaming...ad-of-xbox-360-with-77-million-consoles-sold/
As of January 2013, PS3 sold 77 million since launch and Xbox 320 sold 76 million since launch. How many years ago did these consoles launch? PS3 Launched in March 2007 in Singapore. The Xbox 360 was officially unveiled on MTV on May 12, 2005.
Cumulatively, the Xbox 360 and PS3 has taken 14 years to sell a combined < 160 million consoles.
14 years.
As for 300 million the first quarter after launch? Well, that may be possible considering the PS3 sold almost 90 thousand units in it's first 24 hours after launch as people waited around the blocks before store openings to buy them for their kids.
But after the initial mad rush? Well, it's just another 14 years to go.

 

[3DVagabond]

Anyone know how much AMD will be making per console? PS4 and Xbox 720 each?

It was supposed to be in those stolen documents. Ask Jen-Hsun, he'll know. 😛

 

[Keysplayr]

Anyone know how much AMD will be making per console? PS4 and Xbox 720 each?

How many years do you think it would take to sell enough consoles to earn AMD 300 million? How many consoles is that?

On average, how many PS3's and Xbox 320's sold per year since they launched?

According to this one source:
http://www.digitaltrends.com/gaming...ad-of-xbox-360-with-77-million-consoles-sold/
As of January 2013, PS3 sold 77 million since launch and Xbox 320 sold 76 million since launch. How many years ago did these consoles launch? PS3 Launched in March 2007 in Singapore. The Xbox 360 was officially unveiled on MTV on May 12, 2005.
Cumulatively, the Xbox 360 and PS3 has taken 14 years to sell a combined < 160 million consoles.
14 years.
As for 300 million the first quarter after launch? Well, that may be possible considering the PS3 sold almost 90 thousand units in it's first 24 hours after launch as people waited around the blocks before store openings to buy them for their kids.
But after the initial mad rush? Well, it's just another 14 years to go.

 

[SlickR12345]

Won't really matter. The assets will be sold, the talent will be rehired and we are likely to see new competition within a year.

Yeah we would probably suffer with higher prices for a year, but its not going to be a problem in the aggregate.

Competition always arises as long as we don't have a lot of regulations preventing start-ups from competing.

Anyone know how much AMD will be making per console? PS4 and Xbox 720 each?

How many years do you think it would take to sell enough consoles to earn AMD 300 million? How many consoles is that?

On average, how many PS3's and Xbox 320's sold per year since they launched?

According to this one source:
http://www.digitaltrends.com/gaming/...consoles-sold/
As of January 2013, PS3 sold 77 million since launch and Xbox 320 sold 76 million since launch. How many years ago did these consoles launch? PS3 Launched in March 2007 in Singapore. The Xbox 360 was officially unveiled on MTV on May 12, 2005.
Cumulatively, the Xbox 360 and PS3 has taken 14 years to sell a combined < 160 million consoles.

Also this is very wrong. When Microsoft orders products from AMD they don't order 5000 now, week later 10.000 more, see how it goes and order more, etc... No, they order millions GPU's and like most orders of this size probably pays every 3 months.

In fact I wouldn't be surprised if they ordered up to 100 million and then go from there. They are obviously going to order before hand, assemble them, transfer them to the stores, use the stock for about 6 months to a year depending on the demand and then order another 50 to 100 million.

 

[Keysplayr]

Won't really matter. The assets will be sold, the talent will be rehired and we are likely to see new competition within a year.

Yeah we would probably suffer with higher prices for a year, but its not going to be a problem in the aggregate.

Competition always arises as long as we don't have a lot of regulations preventing start-ups from competing.



Also this is very wrong. When Microsoft orders products from AMD they don't order 5000 now, week later 10.000 more, see how it goes and order more, etc... No, they order millions GPU's and like most orders of this size probably pays every 3 months.

In fact I wouldn't be surprised if they ordered up to 100 million and then go from there. They are obviously going to order before hand, assemble them, transfer them to the stores, use the stock for about 6 months to a year depending on the demand and then order another 50 to 100 million.

100 million up front huh? You think Microsoft is going to order a hundred million APU's from AMD when the Xbox360 still hasn't reached 80 million console sales after 8 years of availability? How so?

 

[raghu78]

Anyone know how much AMD will be making per console? PS4 and Xbox 720 each?

How many years do you think it would take to sell enough consoles to earn AMD 300 million? How many consoles is that?

On average, how many PS3's and Xbox 320's sold per year since they launched?

http://www.vgchartz.com/analysis/platform_totals/

Xbox 360 (Nov 2005 launch) and PS3 (Nov 2006 launch) combined have sold in excess of 150 million in the last 6 - 7 years. approx 20 - 25 million consoles per year (Xbox and PS combined). 10 -12 million units per year for each console.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...to-remain-revenue-mainstays-for-years-to-come

"The report also highlights that just this past December, Sony's PS3 managed to surpass the number of Xbox 360s shipped worldwide (about 77 million vs. 76 million), despite the PS3 launching a year later"

AMD is expected to sell an estimated 5 million next gen console APU chips (PS4 & Xbox Next combined) in Q4 2013.

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderd...g/?mod=BOLBlog

"Our Japan Sony/gaming analysts Damian Thong and David Gibson believe both the Playstation 4 and Xbox 720 will begin shipping in 4Q13. While our checks indicate Sony‘s Playstation could begin shipping as soon as August, our base assumption (in line with our Japan colleagues) is 2.5 million Playstation 4 units and 2.3 million Xbox 720 units shipped in Q4 With AMD chips confirmed in the Playstation 4 and our expectation for a win in the X-Box 720 we have included the new business in our bottoms-up forecast. We note the business model should be different from AMD‘s existing Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii U wins which were unit-royalty bearing agreements as opposed to selling finished chips. The processor used in the Playstation 4 is an eight-core CPU, based on the company‘s new architecture (Jaguar), integrated with an AMD graphics chip. We estimate that average selling prices for the company‘s game console business are roughly $60 due to its premium specifications. As a result, we are adding roughly $96 million of Sony/Xbox console chip revenue for AMD in 3Q13 and $228 million in 4Q13, and raising our CY13 and CY14 revenue estimates."


First of all this generation differs in that AMD is selling manufactured chips and not licensing their designs for royalty. so comparisons with last gen are irrelevant. Intel and AMD's x86 license agreement does not allow AMD to sub license to another company like Sony / Microsoft. Also the PS4 SOC is unique in that its an APU with a significant amount of intellectual property. Jaguar CPU cores, 1152 GCN cores, video encode/ decode, integrated memory controller, low latency / high bandwidth CPU-GPU bus, full HSA support.

even though production starts in Q3 this year, 2014 will be the first full year of production and sales when things will be in full flow. An estimated 20 - 25 million consoles at USD 60 means USD 1.2 - 1.5 billion for the next year. With a USD 10 profit per chip (which is quite definitely possible) AMD will make USD 200 - 250 million profit in 2014.