How valid is the "War for Oil" Argument?

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render

Platinum Member
Nov 15, 1999
2,816
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Originally posted by: HJD1
Originally posted by: render
anyone opposed to the war, are you happy to pay if gas price goes up to 5 times more than now?

Anyone remember the oil shock in '70s? (OPEC?)


I'd take a bus... the nearest stop is but a hundred yards away and goes right to where I want to go... and we have a Coaster too...
You all can pay the gas price.... and fight the war... if you want... I'll choose my mode of transport when you're done.

I'm not just saying the gas price. Think about the economic effects.
 

BoberFett

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
37,562
9
81
Originally posted by: render
Originally posted by: HJD1
Originally posted by: render
anyone opposed to the war, are you happy to pay if gas price goes up to 5 times more than now?

Anyone remember the oil shock in '70s? (OPEC?)


I'd take a bus... the nearest stop is but a hundred yards away and goes right to where I want to go... and we have a Coaster too...
You all can pay the gas price.... and fight the war... if you want... I'll choose my mode of transport when you're done.

I'm not just saying the gas price. Think about the economic effects.

Yeah, if you think the price of gas only affects the cost of your ride to work you're sadly mistaken.

If the price of gas went up by 500% overnight, you might not have a job to go to in the morning.
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
Originally posted by: BoberFett
Originally posted by: render
Originally posted by: HJD1
Originally posted by: render
anyone opposed to the war, are you happy to pay if gas price goes up to 5 times more than now?

Anyone remember the oil shock in '70s? (OPEC?)


I'd take a bus... the nearest stop is but a hundred yards away and goes right to where I want to go... and we have a Coaster too...
You all can pay the gas price.... and fight the war... if you want... I'll choose my mode of transport when you're done.

I'm not just saying the gas price. Think about the economic effects.

Yeah, if you think the price of gas only affects the cost of your ride to work you're sadly mistaken.

If the price of gas went up by 500% overnight, you might not have a job to go to in the morning.

And assuming that is a bad thing... In Ireland the price of (converted to US gallons at $2.15 to the Punt) was about $4.25 in '80 - '81 and the folks, me among them seemed to get along ok... the price here was about $1.25 a gallon.
But, I do get the point. I guess we're spoiled in many ways versus other places.

 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Holy crap. if my electric bill was 500 I would personally be out killing. I really wouldn't care who.

I responded to this post but it got lost and I couldn't get back on... so I'll redoit.

My bill is still about $250 per month and I have a medical discount to keep the place warm that saves about $60 a month. A couple years back for the same period it was $125, $115, $130 so its doubled in any event. The Engineering Company that I work for is heavy into the power generation field.. co generation and all.. so we should consider using used cigarette butts as fuel and all that litter strewn about on the highway or maybe solar, hydro, nuke, and hydrogen fuel... could drink the water afterward.

 

Helenihi

Senior member
Dec 25, 2001
379
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0
Originally posted by: Purgatory-Z
Originally posted by: cpumaster
how much does it cost to send something to the sun? Isn't it cheaper to just send them to India or Pakistan? I heard they are actually looking to buy some spend fuel rod to be "processed" there and we could make some money ;)

of course we might risked turning the world into a sun afterward, but hey for cheaper electric bill it's worth it right?

It costs approx. $20,000 per 1 pound to put it into orbit. Getting to the sun would incur a slightly higher cost. The risk of disaster if a shuttle full of this material was intercepted by a missle or had an accident during take off, combined with the cost, makes "sending the used fuel rods" to the sun an impractical idea.

Actually it's closer to $5000 a pound for a rocket launch, but it's still ridiculous expensive. We need a giant rail gun to shoot our trash into space.
 

oLLie

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2001
5,203
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Originally posted by: Helenihi
Originally posted by: Purgatory-Z
Originally posted by: cpumaster
how much does it cost to send something to the sun? Isn't it cheaper to just send them to India or Pakistan? I heard they are actually looking to buy some spend fuel rod to be "processed" there and we could make some money ;)

of course we might risked turning the world into a sun afterward, but hey for cheaper electric bill it's worth it right?

It costs approx. $20,000 per 1 pound to put it into orbit. Getting to the sun would incur a slightly higher cost. The risk of disaster if a shuttle full of this material was intercepted by a missle or had an accident during take off, combined with the cost, makes "sending the used fuel rods" to the sun an impractical idea.

Actually it's closer to $5000 a pound for a rocket launch, but it's still ridiculous expensive. We need a giant rail gun to shoot our trash into space.

Space elevator right? I think they talk about it on howstuffworks
 

abaez

Diamond Member
Jan 28, 2000
7,155
1
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I read a good article today in the L.A. Times on the loss of the artifacts and the stuff in the museum. I mean we had complete security at many different oil wells and sites, even the Ministry of Oil, but 5 soldiers and a tank at the museum wasn't at the top of the list of priorities. The article went into the loss of the art and the culture of much of Iraq's past history, something that could have brough the country together, but was lost. This goes to show of the "priorities" of the administration oil was at the top of the list.

Found the article: http://www.calendarlive.com/galleriesandmuseums/cl-et-christopher18apr18.story
 

Spyro

Diamond Member
Dec 4, 2001
3,366
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Originally posted by: AthlonXP
Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Naturally oil is a consideration, particularly so it doesn't interfere with the develompent of the Chinese solar tank, but the totality of reasons for Iraq can be lumped under the New American Century scenario, which I think better explains our invasion. There are lots of reasons encluding oil.

 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
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Quote

It costs approx. $20,000 per 1 pound to put it into orbit. Getting to the sun would incur a slightly higher cost. The risk of disaster if a shuttle full of this material was intercepted by a missle or had an accident during take off, combined with the cost, makes "sending the used fuel rods" to the sun an impractical idea.[/quote]

Actually it's closer to $5000 a pound for a rocket launch, but it's still ridiculous expensive. We need a giant rail gun to shoot our trash into space.[/quote]

Well shooting it into space may be an option but, to allow it to ride down the mid ocean trench is cheap and doable. Lower it 38000 feet to ... say off the Marianna's and in a secure housing and in a years it be part of the core.
 

BoberFett

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
37,562
9
81
Originally posted by: HJD1
And assuming that is a bad thing... In Ireland the price of (converted to US gallons at $2.15 to the Punt) was about $4.25 in '80 - '81 and the folks, me among them seemed to get along ok... the price here was about $1.25 a gallon.
But, I do get the point. I guess we're spoiled in many ways versus other places.

Yep, Europe has much higher gasoline prices than the US when comparing price directly and they get along fine. But their economies have adjusted to that price and it's already taken into account in everything they produce. But it doesn't matter if the base cost is US or European, if it quadruples overnight we're screwed. The European economy couldn't survive an immediate jump to $15/gal or more any more than we could support $5/gal.

Basically what I'm saying is that the exact dollar figure is unimportant. It's the cost as a percentage of raw materials that would have the damaging economic effect.
 

apoppin

Lifer
Mar 9, 2000
34,890
1
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alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: HJD1
Quote

It costs approx. $20,000 per 1 pound to put it into orbit. Getting to the sun would incur a slightly higher cost. The risk of disaster if a shuttle full of this material was intercepted by a missle or had an accident during take off, combined with the cost, makes "sending the used fuel rods" to the sun an impractical idea.

Actually it's closer to $5000 a pound for a rocket launch, but it's still ridiculous expensive. We need a giant rail gun to shoot our trash into space.[/quote]

Well shooting it into space may be an option but, to allow it to ride down the mid ocean trench is cheap and doable. Lower it 38000 feet to ... say off the Marianna's and in a secure housing and in a years it be part of the core.[/quote]Technology will eventually take care of it . . . I imagine a working fusion reactor will not only replace the primitive current reactors (after all we're really just using atomic energy to "boil water") but will be able to disassemble the radioactive isotopes into harmless sub particles.

It what we do for the next few hundred years that is so critical.

I think if gas cost $5 a gallon, we'd have alternative fuels already.

 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
Originally posted by: BoberFett
Originally posted by: HJD1
And assuming that is a bad thing... In Ireland the price of (converted to US gallons at $2.15 to the Punt) was about $4.25 in '80 - '81 and the folks, me among them seemed to get along ok... the price here was about $1.25 a gallon.
But, I do get the point. I guess we're spoiled in many ways versus other places.

Yep, Europe has much higher gasoline prices than the US when comparing price directly and they get along fine. But their economies have adjusted to that price and it's already taken into account in everything they produce. But it doesn't matter if the base cost is US or European, if it quadruples overnight we're screwed. The European economy couldn't survive an immediate jump to $15/gal or more any more than we could support $5/gal.

Basically what I'm saying is that the exact dollar figure is unimportant. It's the cost as a percentage of raw materials that would have the damaging economic effect.

Ok... lets stick with the US for awhile.
What would the affect be if the price of oil from OPEC went up to $60 a barrel. First, it would not last long at that price. The economic dynamics would titalate the world to produce to meet the demand... The possibility, in my mind, is very low even if the entire mid east area became .... unusable. Russia has oil, We have oil all over the place, South America the North sea etc. Investment in drilling to meet the demand would jump all over the world. In the short term there would be impact... inflated cost would trickle down in 12 to 18 months and you'd have about the same disposable income as today. Ok. there is the short term issue... it would cause a reduction in investment, savings and purchases but not materially. The poor folks would take the brunt, as usual. I do see the variety of products using petro to go haywire but consider the options available for each item that rockets up... brings in the elasticity of demand.. I gotta take a breath now.
 

LunarRay

Diamond Member
Mar 2, 2003
9,993
1
76
Continuing..
The supply side of the equation would cause alternative intestment big time. You'd see all sorts of alternative fuel autos, the anti nuke folks would be tar and feather candidates... etc etc.. I'd like to see it happen in a controlled way, of course but eventually we will either run out of oil or the price will climb so high that added investment (supply siders) will give the ROI needed to equalize and get back to a more inelastic reality.. (at some price even inelastic stuff becomes elastic when alternatives are presented)

Now... this is what we pay the big bucks to the government to preclude.. if they fail in this... adieu!
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
74,734
6,759
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Naturally we could have declared war on the terror of energylessness instead of Iraq and embarked on a massive government led effort to solarize the US.
 

Emos

Golden Member
Oct 27, 2000
1,989
0
0
Well shooting it into space may be an option but, to allow it to ride down the mid ocean trench is cheap and doable. Lower it 38000 feet to ... say off the Marianna's and in a secure housing and in a years it be part of the core.
Technology will eventually take care of it . . . I imagine a working fusion reactor will not only replace the primitive current reactors (after all we're really just using atomic energy to "boil water") but will be able to disassemble the radioactive isotopes into harmless sub particles.[/quote]

Actually there's a new process in the works that can transform ANY kind of carbon based waste into oil, natural gas, water, carbon and mineral solids. If it works as well as this article hopes it could meet most of our current energy needs.

Thermal deploymerization plants being considered.
 

BaliBabyDoc

Lifer
Jan 20, 2001
10,737
0
0
Here's a thought . . . make it more expensive and everybody will use less. Sux for capitalism but it will do wonders for conservation.
 

Judgement

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2001
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Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc
Here's a thought . . . make it more expensive and everybody will use less. Sux for capitalism but it will do wonders for conservation.

Did any of you read the article I linked? Hehe that was one of the main points...
 

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
Ask a yourself this simple question, would we have invaded Iraq if there had been no oil?

Since we have lived with a not so nice dictator 90miles off of our coast for nearly 50yrs I think the answer is obvious.

How long would we have allowed Fidel Castro to remain in power if Cuba had had even a small oil field?

As usual rossgr hits the nail on the head with simple deduction, "war for oil" and "war for dollars threads", duh, it's an obvious consideration. Why should the free world allow a pugnatious Dictator like Saddam or anyone else control such a large natural resource we all need and use the proceeds to harrass us and our friends if we can put a stop to it? We should'nt and we did'nt and usually don't. You can believe if want, it's about freedom, WMD, or saddams hegemony in the ME but like all things follow the money trails. There are plenty of Saddams in Africa which we have no financial intrest to do anything about and several in Asia we can't do anything about.
 

Judgement

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2001
3,815
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Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc
Did any of you read the article I linked? Hehe that was one of the main points...

Which article . . . so clearly the answer is no . . . sorry.


Ok!


Originally posted by: Judgement
Although I never truly believed that the US being in Iraq had much to do with oil, after reading this which was emailed to me earlier today my opinion strengthed on the subject. Although the article is written in 1990 and is actually describing the first Gulf War, I don't see why for the most part it wouldn't hold up today.

I haven't read anything else about the subject so I'm not in any position to argue that this is absolutely true, I just found it interesting.


For those of you who think oil is or isn't an influence on the war, what sways your opinion?

 

IGBT

Lifer
Jul 16, 2001
17,974
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More like a "oil for palace" policy..from saddam's point of view.
 

BaliBabyDoc

Lifer
Jan 20, 2001
10,737
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Oh man who wants to sign up for the Columbia International Affairs Online?

In the absence of oil reserves we would NOT have invaded and attempted(ing) to occupy it. Iraq was a choice target b/c the costs of invasion could be defrayed once the occupation was in full force. Furthermore, the country could then serve as a launchpad for operations throughout the region without having to kowtow to a resident oligarchy (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Yemen) or rare republic (Turkey).
 

freegeeks

Diamond Member
May 7, 2001
5,460
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9/11 was a wake up call for the USA. All the terrorists were from Saudi-Arabia. I bet that Bush was a bit shocked to find out that these wackos were from the USA's most "loyal" arab ally. The SA royal family are as much dictators as Saddam. I don't see the Bush administration bringing democracy and liberty to SA. The USA had a distrust for SA for years and 9/11 together with WMD is the perfect excuse to install a new puppet regime in the region. The latest news is now that the US is talking about a (semi)permanent military presence in Iraq. This contradicts what the Bush administration has been saying for the last couple of months ("we're out of there the minute that a Iraqi govt. is installed, we have no intentions to stay in Iraq").

the influence of the euro in the region.
Saddam became a hero in the arab world because he used the euro for the limited Iraqi oil export. He made a killing (estimates are in the billions) because of the fluctuations between the dollar and the euro. Suddenly the other OPEC countries are also considering using the euro for the oil export. A lot of Americas economic strenght is based on the fact that a lot of the world trade (and in particular the oil trade) is in dollars. A switch to the euro would be devastating for the USA. The first thing that the Bush administration did when Saddam was gone is the start of the dollarisation of Iraq. When the Iraqis resume the oil export, I'm very curious to see if the Iraqis will have the possibility to use the euro (my guess is that the USA will prevent this at any cost and will leave the new Iraq govt no choice to use the dollar).

Bush is executing the middle-east policy of wackos like Wolfowitz (sp) and perle (sp). These warmongers don't give a sh*t about the UN or any other international body. Their policy is based on the military supremacy of the US and they have no problems using tactics like "preemptive strike" and "nation building (read: install a pro-USA puppet regime)" to have it their way.

Everyone thinking that the USA is in Iraq for "democracy" or even the WMD needs a new brain. This is all about geopolitics and influence in the strategically most important region in the world.
 

drewshin

Golden Member
Dec 14, 1999
1,464
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lower oil prices were not a reason for the war, but certainly a great added benefit that they of course knew would happen because of it.