How many are getting an Apple watch?

[QueBert]

HOLD ON!!!! Apple Watch is not even water proof??????

My $250 TomTom fitness watch which does nothing but track fitness isn't waterproof...

What's the benefit of smart watch over a simple armband? You get more storage and you bring your phone with you in case of emergency. Would you go for a 1 hour jog on a city trail without a phone? What about a 4 hour bike ride?

iPhone 5S with armband, fitbit and a Casio G-Shock is better over this Apple Watch imo.

Nike+ app on the watch, *IF* it would work with my shoe pod would own. Jogging with my 6+ is a pain. I have a running watch and love it, but the Apple watch + Nike+ would be perfection. I think the nike shoe pod is just BT so they should be able to add watch support to it if they wanted

 

[Ramses]

What about some real smarty-pants?

Stuff like that, while I may well never see it in my lifetime, is what I find interesting and why I follow smart devices as all as I hope they are stepping stones toward such. It's still all going to be a kludge of one sort or another until we can access tech by thought and have data either projected and accessible/intractable in our mind or in the least with a direct optical feed of some sort. I know it's all solidly science fiction atm but if we don't blow ourselves up I'm pretty sure it's coming. I grew up on such a steady diet of serious scifi that I have a hard time getting excited about anything less. Using eyes and fingers to interact with stuff is a fairly small step from smashing things with a rock to me. It was neat to see the internet get on it's feet finally but beyond that nothing has really rocked me. Call me jaded I guess...

 

[ControlD]

My $250 TomTom fitness watch which does nothing but track fitness isn't waterproof...

So you bought like the one fitness watch that isn't waterproof?

 

[QueBert]

So you bought like the one fitness watch that isn't waterproof?

The store had about a dozen, half of them weren't water proof. Water resistant is where they topped out. I researched every watch out there, a lot of the waterproof ones didn't track swimming so it was kind of a moot point.

 

[MongGrel]

Someone makes real glasses I can wear around and do shit with, I might get interested.

 

[touchstone]

http://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-six-percent-u-adults-plan-buy-apple-192532946--finance.html


What's 6% of 318 million people?

 

[Hugo Drax]

You, my friend, is a smart man!
Sounds like you bought a caliber 8500 :thumbsup:

Yes the one with the orange numbers and rubber strap with orange stitching. I never liked metal bracelets.

Yeah the watch is lovely and it's cool that it has a display back so you can see all the gears moving etc.. Real cool stuff.

 

[Red Storm]

http://news.yahoo.com/exclusive-six-percent-u-adults-plan-buy-apple-192532946--finance.html


What's 6% of 318 million people?

I love surveys like this. They asked 1,829 people, and then from there they presume to know what the other 317,998,171 people will or won't do.

Still, I don't need polls to know the Apple Watch will sell, just like I didn't need someone to tell me Twilight would make a killing in theaters.

 

[touchstone]

I'm just wondering what the adult population of the U.S. is.


There really is no telling whether it sells 5 million or 50, because most of what will sell it is word of mouth. If people don't like it, it could actually flop. You never know.

 

[ControlD]

I'm just wondering what the adult population of the U.S. is.


There really is no telling whether it sells 5 million or 50, because most of what will sell it is word of mouth. If people don't like it, it could actually flop. You never know.

I have seen the 20 million number as the target from numerous people analyzing the stock. I guess that will be the number for it to be considered a success.

 

[touchstone]

Man it's crazy that Apple is so huge, that selling 10 million of something in 9 months is considered a failure.

 

[Artdeco]

It's not a failure, Apple has a very good idea about how many watches they'll sell, and it's an investment in the future, "watches" will be huge, and now they have some skin in the game.

 

[WelshBloke]

It's not a failure, Apple has a very good idea about how many watches they'll sell, and it's an investment in the future, "watches" will be huge, and now they have some skin in the game.

It's too early to say that it's anything yet. It has the potential to go either way.
Although even if it's not successful now they can pull a Microsoft and just keep shovelling money at the situation to keep themselves in the game.

 

[touchstone]

http://www.macrumors.com/2015/04/15/apple-watch-2-3-million-pre-orders/

Wow, I expected maybe a million at most.

 

[vi edit]

http://www.macrumors.com/2015/04/15/apple-watch-2-3-million-pre-orders/

Wow, I expected maybe a million at most.

How many did you order with the intent to cancel? Think you are alone? How many ordered were for speculation and with the sole intent of being resold? I'll hold out for the quarter release info.

 

[touchstone]

How many did you order with the intent to cancel? Think you are alone? How many ordered were for speculation and with the sole intent of being resold? I'll hold out for the quarter release info.

I ordered the max number possible: 2. Apple will only sell two per household. I had 6 orders originally and apple cancelled 4 of them, so I think you are way way off in this assessment. If anything apple has made it as hard as possible to buy the watch.


I also read in one of the assessments of pre-orders that the average number of watches per order was 1.3, so worst case scenario they are selling 1.7-1.8 million watches. I am starting to wonder if the constant whining on apple forums about android users discounting their products for any and every possible reasons are warranted. Was I really like this before I started to consider the watch?

 

[ControlD]

Well, how many iPhone users are there worldwide? 300-400 million? I think an estimate of 1 million watches sold is incredibly low.

 

[openwheel]

Touchstone, are you sure you didn't secretly order 500,000 units?

2-3 million pre-order? Seems underwhelming, I expected much higher figure.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Yes preorders are great, but I just don't see this product having staying power. Early adopters, fanboys, and uber rich are mopping it up right now...but will Joe Public be buying it months from now? I don't think so. I predict sales will taper off hard and fast.

This product just isn't that good or polished. More importantly, it doesn't really solve a need most people have from a tech perspective.

 

[Artdeco]

Touchstone, are you sure you didn't secretly order 500,000 units?

2-3 million pre-order? Seems underwhelming, I expected much higher figure.

I know, Apple is doomed, right?

Seriously though, that's a great figure, although I think we'll see an iPad like sales arc, with the same slow replacement cycle.

Interesting comment I read recently, and agree with, an iPod used to be a cheap safe gift bet for someone, the watch is a relatively cheap (for an Apple product) sure bet for a gift.

Production should be up to speed by Christmas, sales should continue strong throughout the year.

Gen II sales are going to be huge...

 

[preslove]

I love surveys like this. They asked 1,829 people, and then from there they presume to know what the other 317,998,171 people will or won't do.

Still, I don't need polls to know the Apple Watch will sell, just like I didn't need someone to tell me Twilight would make a killing in theaters.

The sample size is fine. The problem is, how many of those 1829 respondents actually know the price, features, and design problems of the watch? I don't think that 6% saying "yes, I intend to buy the watch" has any predictive value, because many will balk once they learn more and about it.

I think the watch will be a modest success, initially, but that it has a low total ceiling. Much lower than iPads.

In 5 years, I think the smartwatch market will look like 3d tvs, except while everyone lost money on 3d tvs, Apple will have made a modest profit on it (because of the insane margens they make on them). But, nowhere near iPhone money, let alone iPad money.

 

[Commodus]

If the KGI estimate is anywhere near on the mark (it might not be, and there's no guarantee that Apple will reveal numbers), that's huge. Remember, the entire Android Wear ecosystem notched up about 720,000 sales in nine months; racking up three times that much in a few days would be impressive, especially at higher prices.

 

[Kaido]

2-3 million pre-order? Seems underwhelming, I expected much higher figure.

Just doing some napkin math here:

1. Base price = $350
2. Pre-orders = estimated at 2.3 million

2,300,000 * $350 = $805 million dollars, minimum (not to mention upgrade options & AppleCare). That ain't bad :awe:

 

[preslove]

If the KGI estimate is anywhere near on the mark (it might not be, and there's no guarantee that Apple will reveal numbers), that's huge. Remember, the entire Android Wear ecosystem notched up about 720,000 sales in nine months; racking up three times that much in a few days would be impressive, especially at higher prices.

Only android fanboys think that Android Wear will ever succeed. Mark my words, no Android watch manufacturer will make a net profit when development costs are taken into account.

Apple will probably make money and undoubtedly trounce Android in raw numbers. I just think the entire category has limited appeal.

 

[vi edit]

Just doing some napkin math here:

1. Base price = $350
2. Pre-orders = estimated at 2.3 million

2,300,000 * $350 = $805 million dollars, minimum (not to mention upgrade options & AppleCare). That ain't bad :awe:

They've spent 40 million marketing it so far. And it hasn't even been released. Hope they sell a few.