How many Americans deaths will Trump be directly responsible for due to COVID-45

[hal2kilo]

but republicans love him Maybe republicans is no longer the party of conservatives but the party of idiots ?

Just figured that out?

 

[MtnMan]

We know the actual total is higher, likely much higher. People that die at home, that were never tested for COVID before or after death. Deaths that just weren't classified as COVID related just due to the volume of deaths and bureaucracy.

And deliberate fudging the numbers by republican governors and Trump supporters within state reporting food chains. We know that FL Gov DeSantis did this. Likely most republican governors under reported.

 

[hal2kilo]

We know the actual total is higher, likely much higher. People that die at home, that were never tested for COVID before or after death. Deaths that just weren't classified as COVID related just due to the volume of deaths and bureaucracy.

And deliberate fudging the numbers by republican governors and Trump supporters within state reporting food chains. We know that FL Gov DeSantis did this. Likely most republican governors under reported.

But, Cuomo. Seriously, it wouldn't look so bad if he wasn't telling everyone else what a good job he was doing, and wrote a book to that effect. NY was F'd from the get go, but the usual, well that person's occupied a bed for more days than his insurance will cover in a hospital, so off to the nursing home you go? I don't know the whole story but sometimes flying low is a better option, much less egg to wipe off your face.

 

[Jaskalas]

Europe Confronts a Covid-19 Rebound as Vaccine Hopes Recede

Slow vaccinations, outpaced by virus variants, and indecision by EU governments are deepening the continent’s gloom ​

U.S. infections and deaths, which were higher on a per-capita basis for most of 2020, have fallen below the bloc’s. ​

Let me repeat that. Per Capita, US infections and deaths HAVE FALLEN BELOW EUROPE.
Their handling of COVID is apparently worse than ours. Let that sink in.

 

[Stopsignhank]

We are doing better, but it is still bad out there.
The seven day average for new cases is 62,000 people per day.
The seven day average for deaths is 1,364 per day.

 

[cytg111]

Europe Confronts a Covid-19 Rebound as Vaccine Hopes Recede

Slow vaccinations, outpaced by virus variants, and indecision by EU governments are deepening the continent’s gloom ​

U.S. infections and deaths, which were higher on a per-capita basis for most of 2020, have fallen below the bloc’s. ​

Let me repeat that. Per Capita, US infections and deaths HAVE FALLEN BELOW EUROPE.
Their handling of COVID is apparently worse than ours. Let that sink in.

Well, many has the Astra on hold cause side effects plus for reasons I dont know suppliers have down adjusted the number of vaccines they can deliver... add on top of that that the EU fumbled the approval process by 3 weeks comparatively. The last part is unforgivable.
One thing, at least Scandinavia, whatever shots available are going into arms asap, there is no storage build up.

 

[Brainonska511]

Tells me Hillary was right

Yeah... but her e-mails...

 

[Jaskalas]

One aspect of the WSJ article I need to verify, is if that data is weekly or in total.

It is an incredible claim, that we did better than Europe is too good to be true, right?

 

[uclaLabrat]

Basically it sounds like we're being much more efficient lately with vaccine distribution? My local county has nearly 25% of eligible adults with at least one dose, and hopefully that will more than double in the next 6-8 weeks.

I dont know that Europe has had the same access.

 

[MtnMan]

Leadership from the top is clearly beginning to turn things around.

We still face the challenges of republican governors, who seem hell-bent on people dying for political gain.

Some states got hammered hard early in the pandemic as no one knew what the hell was coming at us. NY probably one of the worse, literally caught unprepared, and lacking even basics like PPE.

Now, looking at how widespread COVID is through the population there is a pretty clear marker that states with republican leadership have not fared well. There are 14 states where 10% or more of the population have contracted COVID up to this point. Of these 14 states, 11 of them have republican governors.
They are:

• ND 13.2% R
• SD 12.9% R
• RI 12.3% D
• UT 11.8% R
• IO 11.7% R
• TN 11.5% R
• AZ 11.4% R
• OK 10.9% R
• AR 10.8% R
• NE 10.6% R
• SC 10.3% R
• KS 10.3% D
• AL 10.3% R
• MI 10.1% D

Florida is at 9.2%, but we also know that the governor fudged the numbers and blocked health officials from reporting numbers for a while.
Texas is at 9.4% and there was some questionable changing the numbers back in August.

National average is 9.1%

 

[zzyzxroad]

Leadership from the top is clearly beginning to turn things around.

We still face the challenges of republican governors, who seem hell-bent on people dying for political gain.

Some states got hammered hard early in the pandemic as no one knew what the hell was coming at us. NY probably one of the worse, literally caught unprepared, and lacking even basics like PPE.

Now, looking at how widespread COVID is through the population there is a pretty clear marker that states with republican leadership have not fared well. There are 14 states where 10% or more of the population have contracted COVID up to this point. Of these 14 states, 11 of them have republican governors.
They are:

• ND 13.2% R
• SD 12.9% R
• RI 12.3% D
• UT 11.8% R
• IO 11.7% R
• TN 11.5% R
• AZ 11.4% R
• OK 10.9% R
• AR 10.8% R
• NE 10.6% R
• SC 10.3% R
• KS 10.3% D
• AL 10.3% R
• MI 10.1% D

Florida is at 9.2%, but we also know that the governor fudged the numbers and blocked health officials from reporting numbers for a while.
Texas is at 9.4% and there was some questionable changing the numbers back in August.

National average is 9.1%

I don't think you can get remotely close to the real number of people actually infected I would not be confident that using the number of test positives vs population is even directionally accurate. A better stat is deaths per million but there are still a lot of variables that go into it. For instance here in California where I live Los Angeles County looks horrible and skews the state's numbers. A lot of the depths are in the poor neighborhoods. Many people also ignored the social distancing and mask mandates in LA county up until about October / Novembers.

Basically it sounds like we're being much more efficient lately with vaccine distribution? My local county has nearly 25% of eligible adults with at least one dose, and hopefully that will more than double in the next 6-8 weeks.

I dont know that Europe has had the same access.

US is doing really well. So is the UK but the rest of Europe really seems to be behind.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research

Our vaccination dataset uses the most recent official numbers from governments and health ministries worldwide. The population estimates we use to calculate per-capita metrics are all based on the last revision of the United Nations World Population Prospects. A full list of our country-specific...

ourworldindata.org

 

[MtnMan]

I don't think you can get remotely close to the real number of people actually infected I would not be confident that using the number of test positives vs population is even directionally accurate. A better stat is deaths per million but there are still a lot of variables that go into it. For instance here in California where I live Los Angeles County looks horrible and skews the state's numbers. A lot of the depths are in the poor neighborhoods. Many people also ignored the social distancing and mask mandates in LA county up until about October / Novembers.

The medical community has learned a great deal about treating COVID patients, so I disagree that deaths is a better statistic. Those states impacted early in the pandemic had fewer options and knowledge about treating COVID patients. Today more options are available, and things like antibody infusions*, which were not even available 10-12 months ago. And we are not wasting time chasing fantasies of a fucking nut job president like hydroxychloroquine.

While testing and states reporting actual numbers are a factor, nothing has changed in the transmission of COVID, except the behavior of people, and governors can have a big impact in that.

* A good friend of my daughter received an antibody infusion because he was becoming seriously ill from COVID, his vitals were going south. He said it made him feel even sicker, but 36 hours later he felt like a new man.

.

 

[manly]

I don't think you can get remotely close to the real number of people actually infected I would not be confident that using the number of test positives vs population is even directionally accurate. A better stat is deaths per million but there are still a lot of variables that go into it. For instance here in California where I live Los Angeles County looks horrible and skews the state's numbers. A lot of the depths are in the poor neighborhoods. Many people also ignored the social distancing and mask mandates in LA county up until about October / Novembers.

I've been pretty good about social distancing, but I don't think you have the timeline correctly. SoCal did fairly well in "compliance" up until October, and then many people just stopped giving a fuck as the expected fall surge began. Then add larger holiday gatherings to the mix, colder weather to keep us indoors, and things really snowballed.

US is doing really well. So is the UK but the rest of Europe really seems to be behind.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research

Our vaccination dataset uses the most recent official numbers from governments and health ministries worldwide. The population estimates we use to calculate per-capita metrics are all based on the last revision of the United Nations World Population Prospects. A full list of our country-specific...

ourworldindata.org

The important takeaway is that it's a bit early to say that vaccinations explain the dramatically lower infections in the U.S. We know this, but it's unclear why parts of Europe are having such a tough go in new cases. And if you look at Israel's new cases curve, it's higher than you'd think considering how close they are to vaccination herd immunity. The running theory for months now is the UK variant could ruin everyone, which may yet include us as B.1.1.7 is becoming the dominant strain in the U.S. (Worse yet, the SA and Brazilian strains can cause reinfections and are slightly more resistant to current vaccines.)

If anything, Americans are pretty eager to declare our independence well in advance of Joe Biden's July 4 timeline and the potential for another surge is very much alive.

 

[zzyzxroad]

I've been pretty good about social distancing, but I don't think you have the timeline correctly. SoCal did fairly well in "compliance" up until October, and then many people just stopped giving a fuck as the expected fall surge began. Then add larger holiday gatherings to the mix, colder weather to keep us indoors, and things really snowballed.


The important takeaway is that it's a bit early to say that vaccinations explain the dramatically lower infections in the U.S. We know this, but it's unclear why parts of Europe are having such a tough go in new cases. And if you look at Israel's new cases curve, it's higher than you'd think considering how close they are to vaccination herd immunity. The running theory for months now is the UK variant could ruin everyone, which may yet include us as B.1.1.7 is becoming the dominant strain in the U.S. (Worse yet, the SA and Brazilian strains can cause reinfections and are slightly more resistant to current vaccines.)

If anything, Americans are pretty eager to declare our independence well in advance of Joe Biden's July 4 timeline and the potential for another surge is very much alive.

Sorry shoudl have noted that my statement was 100% based on anecdotal experience. I take a lot of drives to get out of my house but have been extreme with my social distancing. While driving around the vast majority of people I saw did not have a mask on until the 3rd wave. Over the past few months it is very rare to see someone without a mask on.

 

[ch33zw1z]

One aspect of the WSJ article I need to verify, is if that data is weekly or in total.

It is an incredible claim, that we did better than Europe is too good to be true, right?

Looks like they're citing recent surge verse usa falling numbers

Coronavirus Update (Live): 138,024,148 Cases and 2,972,039 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

[esquared]

Just a somber reply here.
Deaths in US passed 600,00 today.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 138,024,148 Cases and 2,972,039 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

The silver lining is the vaccinations have really reduced cases and deaths. The number of new cases today was:

17,834 new cases with 289 deaths.

6

 

[pmv]

I don't think you can get remotely close to the real number of people actually infected I would not be confident that using the number of test positives vs population is even directionally accurate. A better stat is deaths per million but there are still a lot of variables that go into it. For instance here in California where I live Los Angeles County looks horrible and skews the state's numbers. A lot of the depths are in the poor neighborhoods. Many people also ignored the social distancing and mask mandates in LA county up until about October / Novembers.



US is doing really well. So is the UK but the rest of Europe really seems to be behind.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research

Our vaccination dataset uses the most recent official numbers from governments and health ministries worldwide. The population estimates we use to calculate per-capita metrics are all based on the last revision of the United Nations World Population Prospects. A full list of our country-specific...

ourworldindata.org

I've been watching the UK plummet down the table of 'culmulative total covid deaths per capita'. In particular continental European countries seem to have been surging past us (especially the east - Czech republic, Slovenia, Hungary, Poland, Croatia, the Baltic states...all seem to be doing particularly badly). I have to assume the UK pulling back from the brink (things were especially _bad_ here till recently) is because of the effect of the vaccine roll-out. Conversely, the EU vaccine program does not seem to be going well, just judging from those still-climbing death rates.

South American countries also climbing that dismal table - though I wonder if that's partly just improved testing/counting? Their excess death figures have long been very high.

The US seems somewhere in the middle - not doing as well as the UK but not as badly as the EU.

...of course the picture could all change if the "Indian" variant (that is now spreading here) turns out to evade some or all of the vaccines.

 

[Muse]

Just a somber reply here.
Deaths in US passed 600,00 today.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 138,024,148 Cases and 2,972,039 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

The silver lining is the vaccinations have really reduced cases and deaths. The number of new cases today was:

17,834 new cases with 289 deaths.

6

600K was my out of thin air guess when this thread was started, but I voted over a million, partly because I thought that possible (but unlikely), the the next lower option was seriously way lowball (100,000). However, I think over a million is actually the correct answer because of uncounted deaths.

 

[Commodus]

600K was my out of thin air guess when this thread was started, but I voted over a million, partly because I thought that possible (but unlikely). However, I think over a million is actually the correct answer because of uncounted deaths.

Quite possible, but it's hard to say for sure. I'd say the biggest uncertainty was in the very earliest phase of the pandemic, when there were a lot of people dying of "cardiac arrest" or other causes that were ultimately linked to COVID-19. I'm sure there have been others since, but I don't think we'll ever get a true sense of the casualty rate in the US, let alone in other parts of the world.

 

[fskimospy]

Quite possible, but it's hard to say for sure. I'd say the biggest uncertainty was in the very earliest phase of the pandemic, when there were a lot of people dying of "cardiac arrest" or other causes that were ultimately linked to COVID-19. I'm sure there have been others since, but I don't think we'll ever get a true sense of the casualty rate in the US, let alone in other parts of the world.

I think we will - broadly speaking we can just use excess mortality rate. This data isn’t fully up to date of course but in the next year or two we will be able to have a reasonably good accounting of how many deaths. My very rough estimate based on the data reported so far would be that the US has ~100-200k additional deaths to count.

 

[tweaker2]

Trump is accountable for an untold number of deaths due to his pettiness and tissue thin ego, but let's not forget that his supporters are complicit with his foolishly diabolical schemes to keep himself in office.

He and they have shown absolutely no remorse, no willingness to be held accountable for the many deaths attributable to their arrogance and self-serving attitudes.

For this particular monstrous act among so many others that he committed while in office Trump should never darken the West Wing with his presence ever again.

What bothers me most though is that his crimes against the nation will go unpunished the same way Bush and Cheney got away with theirs.

 

[ch33zw1z]

Let's all take a moment to remember how trump oh so eloquently lied to the American public about SARS2 back in 02/2020. That was a glorious leadership day. Truly inspiring

 

[Jaskalas]

I think we will - broadly speaking we can just use excess mortality rate. This data isn’t fully up to date of course but in the next year or two we will be able to have a reasonably good accounting of how many deaths. My very rough estimate based on the data reported so far would be that the US has ~100-200k additional deaths to count.

No need to crunch it yourself. Though you were not far off.

May 6 2021:
New Study Estimates More Than 900,000 People Have Died Of COVID-19 In U.S.

 

[abj13]

I've been watching the UK plummet down the table of 'culmulative total covid deaths per capita'. In particular continental European countries seem to have been surging past us (especially the east - Czech republic, Slovenia, Hungary, Poland, Croatia, the Baltic states...all seem to be doing particularly badly). I have to assume the UK pulling back from the brink (things were especially _bad_ here till recently) is because of the effect of the vaccine roll-out. Conversely, the EU vaccine program does not seem to be going well, just judging from those still-climbing death rates.

South American countries also climbing that dismal table - though I wonder if that's partly just improved testing/counting? Their excess death figures have long been very high.

The US seems somewhere in the middle - not doing as well as the UK but not as badly as the EU.

...of course the picture could all change if the "Indian" variant (that is now spreading here) turns out to evade some or all of the vaccines.

Yeah, I think the UK really righted the ship over the past few months, deaths have really tapered off. I was in Colombia right as Wuhan took off, and even though their numbers look "okay" over 2020, they certainly lacked the infrastructure to appropriately diagnose, treat, and track morbidity/mortality. Their numbers are certainly an underestimate. Cities like Medellin may have amazing public transportation, but that's been a local focus while healthcare has lagged behind. And that's a country on the upper third of GDP for Latin America, who knows what actually happened in places like Bolivia.

Hungry though has done well with vaccination rates (almost on par with the UK), and their death rates have plummeted. Isn't clear if that's all vaccine or end of a surge. But they were willing to accept Russian and Chinese vaccines. If you believe the Russian data, Sputnik V (interesting way to brand it) is almost as efficacious as Pfizer and Moderna's version.

 

[MtnMan]

600K was my out of thin air guess when this thread was started, but I voted over a million, partly because I thought that possible (but unlikely). However, I think over a million is actually the correct answer because of uncounted deaths.

Between the two greatest threats COVID has brought to light (variants and stupid people) I think 1,000,000 is still a distinct possibility. Reality is we probably are there now, based on excess mortality rates for the past 15 months.

Now with the CDC saying vaccinated don't need masks, the stupid will simply lie. Hopefully the vaccinated will be protected, which is probably appropriate, except for any variant virus that the vaccine doesn't protect against.