How big of a threat is automation?

[VirtualLarry]

. It's just a matter of time before humans are inferior in every practical way.

Don't kid yourself and think otherwise.

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/...ference-is-important?utm_source=pocket-newtab

 

[glenn1]

Well things like CPA's- gone. Physicians for the most part, anything that requires a systematic approach. Artists will compete with AI's, businesses better operated by upscaled Watson's so even corporate boards are redundant. Lawyers, and on and on. The hardest to replace will be jobs requiring mobility and dexterity such as plumbers. People like you are only a decade away from being obsolete because cognitive jobs are on the chopping block. It's just a matter of time before humans are inferior in every practical way.

Don't kid yourself and think otherwise.

CPAs are gone because your $30k tax return is simple, until you need to do a forensic audit for a global company that collapsed due to fraud. Doctors are gone because a toaster could diagnose eczema, until a new disease like AIDS comes along or you need to determine if a patient is simply drug seeking or has some weird shit like Cotard Syndrome. Artists are gone because a sunset painting is trivial to knock out, until you tell the AI “make a drawing that will engender a disgust response yet is still very compelling to the viewer who won’t be able to look away” instructions.

Basically anything with novel solution requirements or needing to decipher human intent is immune to AI, particularly when by the task’s nature few or no
standardized instructions could exist.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

CPAs are gone because your $30k tax return is simple, until you need to do a forensic audit for a global company that collapsed due to fraud. Doctors are gone because a toaster could diagnose eczema, until a new disease like AIDS comes along or you need to determine if a patient is simply drug seeking or has some weird shit like Cotard Syndrome. Artists are gone because a sunset painting is trivial to knock out, until you tell the AI “make a drawing that will engender a disgust response yet is still very compelling to the viewer who won’t be able to look away” instructions.

Basically anything with novel solution requirements or needing to decipher human intent is immune to AI, particularly when by the task’s nature few or no
standardized instructions could exist.

lol CPAs are an incredibly diverse field - believe me when I say, they aren't going anywhere. I mean, as far as companies doing their tax stuff - I'm someone that installs automation software related to tax. You still have to have SOMEONE on hand that knows what they are talking about tax wise and accounting wise. Otherwise when you get audited (for many companies multiple going on at all times) what do you think happens? Put some entry level person in to talk with the state tax collectors? That, and our company (and other competitors) have hired tons of CPAs behind the scenes for maintaining and updating our software on a regular basis for all the changes that occur across all the jurisdictions.

That and you still have financial reporting to do, closing the books, etc... I'm not that type of CPA though (actually not a CPA at all - I just work with a bunch) that works in the actual accounting department - Tax is its own animal.

As far as personal income taxes - majority of Americans are still too stupid to understand a simple tax form with a standard deduction. It isn't at all difficult, but people see lines on a paper and well.. they just can't handle something so complex.

 

[glenn1]

lol CPAs are an incredibly diverse field - believe me when I say, they aren't going anywhere. I mean, as far as companies doing their tax stuff - I'm someone that installs automation software related to tax. You still have to have SOMEONE on hand that knows what they are talking about tax wise and accounting wise. Otherwise when you get audited (for many companies multiple going on at all times) what do you think happens? Put some entry level person in to talk with the state tax collectors? That, and our company (and other competitors) have hired tons of CPAs behind the scenes for maintaining and updating our software on a regular basis for all the changes that occur across all the jurisdictions.

That and you still have financial reporting to do, closing the books, etc... I'm not that type of CPA though (actually not a CPA at all - I just work with a bunch) that works in the actual accounting department - Tax is its own animal.

As far as personal income taxes - majority of Americans are still too stupid to understand a simple tax form with a standard deduction. It isn't at all difficult, but people see lines on a paper and well.. they just can't handle something so complex.

I think automation still represents a threat to fields like CPAs, just not an existential one. Historically the specialized/knowledge fields like accounting/medicine/etc. have been able to provide jobs even to those who graduated at the bottom of their class and/or were just marginally proficient just because a lot of the work is pretty simple - the equivalent of $30k tax returns or diagnosing eczema in my example. Extremely routine tasks like that in accounting/medicine can likely be automated, so if you are a barely competent CPA or doctor then you are very correct to be worried about automation. But it also means that because AI cannot realistically be programmed to handle the extreme edge cases like ones I mentioned in my post you quoted, if you're a really, really good doctor that your job is basically immune to AI. That means that you need to be even that much better, more competent, more creative to still have a job in those fields once all the low hanging fruit tasks have been automated away.

That's going to mean a few things - to an extent, job satisfaction will go up because a lot of the menial, mundane, and repetitive tasks will be taken off your plate. You won't have gone to medical school plus years of residency and such just so you can spend 1/3 of your time treating people with nothing more severe than allergies or muscle sprains, the "AI doc" or "last in medical school MD" or lesser trained workers can handle that stuff. It means less time needing to issue and monitor relatively simple and routine orders to nurses and techs for post-surgery care and such, the AI can handle most of that. It means the tasks that are going to come to you are going to be much more complicated, require much more investigation and problem solving, and (perhaps) be more fulfilling yet also demanding. There's going to be little to zero "fluff time" in your schedule and every moment is going to require you to be at peak performance. The future doctor is going to need to be much more like House from the TV show (where the plot describes contrived but hugely complicated medical issues that require a lot of skill and creativity to solve) and a lot less Marcus Welby doing a simple blood test to find you have anemia.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I think automation still represents a threat to fields like CPAs, just not an existential one. Historically the specialized/knowledge fields like accounting/medicine/etc. have been able to provide jobs even to those who graduated at the bottom of their class and/or were just marginally proficient just because a lot of the work is pretty simple - the equivalent of $30k tax returns or diagnosing eczema in my example. Extremely routine tasks like that in accounting/medicine can likely be automated, so if you are a barely competent CPA or doctor then you are very correct to be worried about automation. But it also means that because AI cannot realistically be programmed to handle the extreme edge cases like ones I mentioned in my post you quoted, if you're a really, really good doctor that your job is basically immune to AI. That means that you need to be even that much better, more competent, more creative to still have a job in those fields once all the low hanging fruit tasks have been automated away.

That's going to mean a few things - to an extent, job satisfaction will go up because a lot of the menial, mundane, and repetitive tasks will be taken off your plate. You won't have gone to medical school plus years of residency and such just so you can spend 1/3 of your time treating people with nothing more severe than allergies or muscle sprains, the "AI doc" or "last in medical school MD" or lesser trained workers can handle that stuff. It means less time needing to issue and monitor relatively simple and routine orders to nurses and techs for post-surgery care and such, the AI can handle most of that. It means the tasks that are going to come to you are going to be much more complicated, require much more investigation and problem solving, and (perhaps) be more fulfilling yet also demanding. There's going to be little to zero "fluff time" in your schedule and every moment is going to require you to be at peak performance. The future doctor is going to need to be much more like House from the TV show (where the plot describes contrived but hugely complicated medical issues that require a lot of skill and creativity to solve) and a lot less Marcus Welby doing a simple blood test to find you have anemia.

I get what you're saying - I've only ever worked with top CPAs in Big 4 accounting firms. Not Barbara who works in accounting for XYZ company.

On your note of "every moment is going to require you to be at peak performance"... I honestly question if we are capable of that as humans... Just days of 10+ hours straight of nothing but the most critical thought processes? I doubt many humans can handle that.

 

[glenn1]

I get what you're saying - I've only ever worked with top CPAs in Big 4 accounting firms. Not Barbara who works in accounting for XYZ company.

On your note of "every moment is going to require you to be at peak performance"... I honestly question if we are capable of that as humans... Just days of 10+ hours straight of nothing but the most critical thought processes? I doubt many humans can handle that.

Agreed, it's going to be a challenge. Just like our bodies didn't evolve to eat processed food and never face caloric deficits or periods without food, our minds weren't really designed to take in information at the rates we do now, process it, and unlearn/relearn at the rate we do. In 2019 with TV and internet you can learn more in a day than academics did in a decade in the year 1219, and the entire knowledge of the world back then would probably fit in a single microSD card now. It's crazy which is why I hypothesized the potential branching of human evolution in the future.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Taxes/finances are all about rules and procedures so it technically could be automated. Though it's still so complicated that it's probably not worth it and the rules change all the time. It's kind of like fixing a car, you could technically automate that, have a robot undo a part and replace a part, but it's something that would be hard enough to automate for every possible make/model that it's not worth it.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Taxes/finances are all about rules and procedures so it technically could be automated. Though it's still so complicated that it's probably not worth it and the rules change all the time. It's kind of like fixing a car, you could technically automate that, have a robot undo a part and replace a part, but it's something that would be hard enough to automate for every possible make/model that it's not worth it.

Automation for taxes already exists - I work for one of the big players lol. Every single Fortune 500 company has some type of tax automation software, many in Fortune 1000 likely do as well. We're also starting to go after mid to small size companies as well.

It's SaaS - where we provide updates multiple times a month to keep up with the laws and changes in taxes, tax-ability, etc...

We have people across the country that are constantly researching to keep that database up-to-date.

 

[Midwayman]

Ultimately any job is automatable if we're talking about AI. I think where the human element come in is simply morality. What should we do? For example a robot doctor might be able to determine the statically best course of treatment better than any human. It might perform surgery way better. It probably can even guess what people's emotional response to various actions might be. However when it comes down to the decision to pull the plug on someone we sometimes choose a sub-optimal path because its 'right' Even if an AI can mimic those sorts of choices I think people are going to have a really hard time giving up those decisions. It'll be interesting anyways. AI will be smarter than us one day if we don't manage to kill ourselves first.

 

[glenn1]

Ultimately any job is automatable if we're talking about AI. I think where the human element come in is simply morality. What should we do? For example a robot doctor might be able to determine the statically best course of treatment better than any human. It might perform surgery way better. It probably can even guess what people's emotional response to various actions might be. However when it comes down to the decision to pull the plug on someone we sometimes choose a sub-optimal path because its 'right' Even if an AI can mimic those sorts of choices I think people are going to have a really hard time giving up those decisions. It'll be interesting anyways. AI will be smarter than us one day if we don't manage to kill ourselves first.

This article is very relevant to the “AI smarter than us/kill us” angle. Long but VERY worth reading.

https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html

 

[BarkingGhostar]

Like the cock roach, I am not too worried about AI/robots killing off the human race. I will forward the notion that rednecks can out-breed faster than AI can kill them. But I am sure the planet could benefit from a billion less human beings.

 

[Red Squirrel]

I don't think AI will kill off the human race but it will make things grim for about 95% of people. Unless you're a guy like Elon Musk, Bill Gates, Einstein or other high end super smart person, you will not have a job which means you won't have a place to live and won't have any food. Eventually the only people left will be the above average super smart and rich people who fill in the few roles that can't be automated. There will be no room for the average person.

Most corporations will be 99% automated and feed off each other. Ex: shipping companies who deliver goods, but also buy some of those goods. Or corporations that produce a certain type of good that one corporation needs while the other generates another certain type of good that another needs etc. It will basically be fully automated trading between big corporations. A lot of them will also die off. Any corporation that depends on many average people being their customers won't have any customers anymore. Ex: fast food chains and grocery stores.

The only way to stop this is going to be some form of UBI.

Though another thing I could start seeing is where average people will still run small businesses that other average people go to exchange goods/services. Basically micro societies that are separate from the "system". People will come to a realization that they need to help each other out, and buy goods/services from each other instead of from the corporations. They may even just create their own currency or just trade, as normal currency will become unobtainable unless you have like 20 PHDs and can land a job actually designing the AIs that automate everything. The government would probably crack down on this though, and you would still need real currency to be able to pay taxes and rent etc. So yeah not sure how that would work. Either way, getting a real job making real money will become a very hard feat. It will be like trying to make the NHL. There's only so many positions available, and you have to shine super bright to even be considered.

Ultimately once AI can do every job, the only job that will even be available is to design/improve the AI. And even then, the AI will probably just maintain itself and better itself over time and be 100% self sustainable.

 

[kevin_geer]

Work Opportunities Threatened by Automation. According to survey results, the majority of Americans agree that mass automation would have a negative effect. According to 76 percent of those polled, mass automation would worsen the gap between the wealthy and the poor.

 

[dank69]

Hello fellow forum users!

 

[highland145]

Work Opportunities Threatened by Automation. According to survey results, the majority of Americans agree that mass automation would have a negative effect. According to 76 percent of those polled, mass automation would worsen the gap between the wealthy and the poor.

$15 min wage in podunk SC will increase automation if it's possible.

Hi @dank69

 

[IronWing]

$15 min wage in podunk SC will increase automation if it's possible.

Hi @dank69

It would be a win for you. Bigger paychecks => bigger loans, more interest.

 

[highland145]

It would be a win for you. Bigger paychecks => bigger loans, more interest.

If I compare it to $900/wk unemployment and stimmy checks, it's been a double edged sword. I have really good peeps so they are paying but they haven't been borrowing since last summer. Smaller now than I was after my 1st 6 months, 15 years ago.

But I have coffee and AC. Life is good.

 

[Captante]

Work Opportunities Threatened by Automation

So.... posting on ATOT?

 

[Scarpozzi]

So.... posting on ATOT?

I automate a lot of stuff so I can post on ATOT....but I really hadn't given any though to automating my posting here too... I think it'd be easy to script using python and some dumb markov chain code based on keywords in the OP post....

I mean, any reference to anything feminine, just train the engine to reply with "Pics?". Anything sex or rape fantasy based, just reply with "Ohh yeah...like that time in Olds' basement." Every six months when the "How much should I tip?" thread comes back....reply with the the canned "I'm a 1%er and always tip 50%"

Yeah....ATOT could totally be a bunch of bots.

 

[Red Squirrel]

It's crossed my mind to make a bot that posts here but pretty sure it would get banned pretty quickly lol. An Alky bot would be kind of fun and I would barely need to use any form of AI, it would just reply to random threads and talk about OP's mom's performance last night. It could also reply to random car related treads to say that if you don't have an M3 you are not a baller.

I kind of want to code that now...

 

[Dr. Detroit]

Reading this article last month gave me great joy - This is what Bezos, Gates, and Zuckerberg should be blowing there billions in philanthropy on - Robo Farming. We forego manual labor, we forego harmful pesticides, we forego the manufacturing of those pesticides, farmers get a better crop.

This startup says its new laser-armed weeding robot is already sold out for 2021

Carbon Robotics relies on advanced computer vision to distinguish pesky weeds from high-value crops and shoots them with a high-powered laser.

agfundernews.com

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Reading this article last month gave me great joy - This is what Bezos, Gates, and Zuckerberg should be blowing there billions in philanthropy on - Robo Farming. We forego manual labor, we forego harmful pesticides, we forego the manufacturing of those pesticides, farmers get a better crop.

This startup says its new laser-armed weeding robot is already sold out for 2021

Carbon Robotics relies on advanced computer vision to distinguish pesky weeds from high-value crops and shoots them with a high-powered laser.

agfundernews.com

Honestly, there's tons.

Agriculture while being an easy first thing to see - another easy one is automated mowing/edging, etc. I think there is already a roomba equivalent for grass mowing.

Christ, the amount of mowers in my neighborhood alone - let alone ones the HOA uses for the public parts, then the sides of public roads, every other neighborhood, every store, etc. Etc.

Next up will be fast food with automated burger flipping and fry making machines.

I wonder how many millions of jobs that is already...

 

[ultimatebob]

Every time I get worried about AI taking over the world, I play with my Google Home for a few minutes and instantly feel better.

Google must have spent billions of dollars on R&D for that product by now, and it STILL can't understand what I'm saying about a third of the time. It totally fails on even basic commands regularly.

 

[Red Squirrel]

The best of both worlds would be remotely operated robot farming. People still get a job, but in the comfort of ai air conditioned building. Kinda like what they do in the mines now days, lot of the scoops etc are remotely operated especially when they need to go in areas that are deemed unsafe due to seismic activity or recent blasting etc.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

The best of both worlds would be remotely operated robot farming. People still get a job, but in the comfort of ai air conditioned building. Kinda like what they do in the mines now days, lot of the scoops etc are remotely operated especially when they need to go in areas that are deemed unsafe due to seismic activity or recent blasting etc.

The obvious problem with that though, is you're replacing thousands (millions? Depending on the industry) with hundreds of skilled labor.