How big of a threat is automation?

[sdifox]

Shut your dirty socialist mouth.

loansharking is not banking so chill.

 

[soulcougher73]

It’s a huge deal. If you’ve ever studied or looked at the technology advancement models and how fast it compounds as well as how fast human fucking...err I mean human reproduction compounds, it’s a sad state of affairs for the future. One going up at crazy speed and the other going down at crazy speed. It doesn’t bode well for the future of jobs compared to how populated the world will become.

 

[glenn1]

That describes most jobs tbh. Anything that is too awkward to automate can simply be outsourced as well.

Outsourcing has nothing to do with automation. You can send the creative to China instead of California yet automation still can’t write an Academy award winning script or conceptualize a new value-add technology like blockchain. Only people can.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Outsourcing has nothing to do with automation. You can send the creative to China instead of California yet automation still can’t write an Academy award winning script or conceptualize a new value-add technology like blockchain. Only people can.

No but I'm just saying it is a threat too. Its not just automation that's a threat. Automation and outsourcing are two tools that companies use so they can reduce their staff.

But once they develop AI enough, AI will be able to do the creative stuff too. Just look at those Facebook apps that can turn your face to make you look like a girl, or whatever. Or those web based things where you draw with just lines and it fills in creating a photorealistic landscape. The amount of AI required for something like that to work is quite impressive. Wait until they start applying that to real world situations like architecture or programming. You feed in parameters of what you want the program to do, and it writes the code for it.

 

[lxskllr]

I'm the last man standing at my work. Survey crews used to be five man. Then they went to three man, then two man, then one man... I'm hard to replace, but it's also harder for people to get where I am now. I started as a dummy, and learned as I went. Now, I guess you have to go to school to pay your institution bribe, learn a bunch of shit to get in a place, then throw it all out when you figure out how it really needs to be done, all at a not terrific wage.

 

[Sgt. York]

Automation is part of technological evolution. If our education system worked properly we wouldn't have to worry about people not having jobs.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Automation is part of technological evolution. If our education system worked properly we wouldn't have to worry about people not having jobs.

Nope. There are plenty in the human race that simply aren't meant for advanced studies. You can hold your hands together and sing lullabies - but at the end of the day it is simply fact that a good portion of the human population (regardless of upbringing, opportunities, etc) are inferior to advanced education.

 

[Red Squirrel]

And even if everyone was super PHD smart, there are only so many of those jobs to go around. Those jobs tend to also only be in big cities. Not everyone wants to live there and it would be unsustainable for that to even happen.

 

[glenn1]

And even if everyone was super PHD smart, there are only so many of those jobs to go around. Those jobs tend to also only be in big cities. Not everyone wants to live there and it would be unsustainable for that to even happen.

Intellect creates its own new sectors of the economy with jobs to go with it. People just feel the need to pretend the job of the dishwasher is just as important as Nikolas Tesla’s. Automation will just exacerbate that split and perhaps even lead to a branching of the human species. No need to expend the food calories for several pounds of brain if you only use a couple ounces of it.

 

[VirtualLarry]

I'm actually a big fan of UBI, being that I'm disabled. I'll let you all in on a dirty little secret, being on Disability, is no panacea. It's kind of really more like a real financial trap. UBI, hopefully, will free people that were on Disability, from that trap, and allow them to pay their rent, and food, and still (here's the biggie!) allow them to work part-time, without the constant worry of losing benefits, because they worked too many hours, or got a raise, or something. Granted, the current income amount that they are talking about, $1000 / mo, would be less than I'm getting now, and probably make me NEED to go out and work part-time, but ... that wouldn't be the end of the world. Well, unless all of the jobs get automated away.

I mean, I try to build PCs on the side, but I gave up on Craigslist, after not even getting any inquiries for my PCs for like four months. Pretty sure that I was unfairly and algorithmically "ghosted" some years ago, and of course, they don't actually send you any sort of notice, just let you waste months of your life trying to sell things, without gettting responses, except from scammers. I think "ghosting" from platforms / sites, should be outright illegal. I think that if a platform is going to effectively ban you, they should give you adequate notice.

I know, I should be one of those people, "automating jobs away". When I went to college, I "automated" some of my homework, using the 'C' pre-processor to be able to write abbreviated Pascal code, using my own short-hand, so I wouldn't have to type everything out. (Pascal is SO "wordy".)

Before I went to College, I used to automate my C/C++ code-formatting and beautification, using a processing program I wrote. All about boot-strapping and "tools to make tools". Well, that's what the "cycle of automation" eventually gets us.

Sadly, my mind these days just isn't quite what it used to be in my 20s. (Hence the disability.)

 

[pcgeek11]

vvvv
Is that wrong?

If that's wrong you don't wanna be right. LOL

 

[purbeast0]

Not concerned in the least since I write software.

 

[BarkingGhostar]

Outsourcing has nothing to do with automation. You can send the creative to China instead of California yet automation still can’t write an Academy award winning script or conceptualize a new value-add technology like blockchain. Only people can.

Actually, that which cannot be easily automated is outsourced.

 

[glenn1]

Actually, that which cannot be easily automated is outsourced.

I think you missed my point. A task can be outsourced whether it's automated or not, the term "outsourcing" only refers to an agent (human or machine) that does the work for the company for a fee so the company no longer needs to consider it a "core" business capability. Whether your job is done by a robot in China or a different person in Cleveland doesn't make a difference to "outsourcing."

I presumed the post author I quoted was talking about the macro level concern of "OMG the robots are going to take all but 50 jobs in the whole world" versus the micro level concern of Bob the Accountant at Acme paper clip company "OMG my job is being offshored to Bangaladesh."

 

[Red Squirrel]

Not concerned in the least since I write software.

Until your company outsources your job to the lowest bidder in India. They don't care about quality only about the cost. Even Boeing outsources flight control software to India. (which is a very scary thought)

 

[BD231]

Very good question, its what makes these women so stupid.

 

[IronWing]

So really, the fear isn't so much about automation as it is generated by a recognition of the insatiable greed of the ownership class.

 

[BarkingGhostar]

Until your company outsources your job to the lowest bidder in India. They don't care about quality only about the cost. Even Boeing outsources flight control software to India. (which is a very scary thought)

Actually, several vendors for my company did exactly that only to have those Indian firms outsource the work to Vietnam. So even they made profit in India by not natively doing the work.

 

[Midwayman]

I'm actually a big fan of UBI, being that I'm disabled. I'll let you all in on a dirty little secret, being on Disability, is no panacea. It's kind of really more like a real financial trap. UBI, hopefully, will free people that were on Disability, from that trap, and allow them to pay their rent, and food, and still (here's the biggie!) allow them to work part-time, without the constant worry of losing benefits, because they worked too many hours, or got a raise, or something.

Yah, that's a biggie. I'm not a fan of big social programs, but I believe in UBI since its not a trap. You can go out and start working and develop skills without risking your main income. Low end job providers can't be as abusive either with UBI since your workers can just walk out if you're a raging a-hole to them. It sounds (on paper anyways) a way better way to do social programs. I'm just not sure how we'd afford it.

 

[purbeast0]

Until your company outsources your job to the lowest bidder in India. They don't care about quality only about the cost. Even Boeing outsources flight control software to India. (which is a very scary thought)

Yeah I'm not concerned with that at all. With software you get what you pay for. And any good company knows that.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Actually, several vendors for my company did exactly that only to have those Indian firms outsource the work to Vietnam. So even they made profit in India by not natively doing the work.

Haha that's a new one, the outsourcer also outsourcing. Not surprising though.

Actually that's kinda how building maintenance works at the company I work for, everything is outsourced to this company, which then outsources it to local companies, which then outsource it to even more local contractors. Something as simple as putting pins on a wall to hang a picture ends up costing about 10 grand because they get a HVAC company or electrician to do it. But somehow it's cheaper because it comes out of a maintenance budget instead of a payroll budget, or some other silly thing like that. Company accounting is weird.

 

[Scarpozzi]

I automate stuff at work all the time. I write scripts that pickup scheduled reports in my Email, filter/sort/graph and Email finished reports back out again all formatted. (these are things people used to do manually) As for the bigger picture, I'm not concerned here because NO ONE knows how to define a damn process...so it'll take years before they figure out how to automate anything important here. I suppose the other side is that too many processes aren't defined well enough for them to remain consistent...and we have new people that are throwing out old processes not knowing why things were done a certain way. Automation requires a defined process, a maintenance plan, and constant monitoring...it rarely means you can set it and forget it. What I appreciate the most for my job is that it gives me more autonomy because I'm not doing busy work. I spend an afternoon or too and offload hours a week on some projects I take on. When I leave, the organization will have to hire 3-4 people to replace me!

 

[glenn1]

I automate stuff at work all the time. I write scripts that pickup scheduled reports in my Email, filter/sort/graph and Email finished reports back out again all formatted. (these are things people used to do manually) As for the bigger picture, I'm not concerned here because NO ONE knows how to define a damn process...so it'll take years before they figure out how to automate anything important here. I suppose the other side is that too many processes aren't defined well enough for them to remain consistent...and we have new people that are throwing out old processes not knowing why things were done a certain way. Automation requires a defined process, a maintenance plan, and constant monitoring...it rarely means you can set it and forget it. What I appreciate the most for my job is that it gives me more autonomy because I'm not doing busy work. I spend an afternoon or too and offload hours a week on some projects I take on. When I leave, the organization will have to hire 3-4 people to replace me!

Yep. Most workplaces are at best a CMMI level 3 and at that point your automation efforts are going to be, shall we say suboptimal. The biggest hindrance to further automation at many workplaces is the incompetence of the managers who can't properly manage their workers tasks. If you can't define the task, determine what's in or out of scope of the task, standardize it, properly sequence it, provide well thought-out business rules for it, measure performance, identify the alternative (non "happy path") flows and error conditions for the task.... etc. then you're stuck with needing to pay somebody $15/hour to flip your burger or similar menial task.

 

[Mai72]

While I think the special snowflake is a problem in and of itself, I think this is a different problem in that men REALLY DO need to feel a purpose.

I remember when I got done with college 9 or so years ago. I practically went a little nuts - Going back to live with my parents while trying to look for a job for a couple months. Thankfully I found one shortly after, but still..... We (as men at least) have a naturally feeling to be...needed... And if you can't fulfill that (with work, fatherhood or whatever...) then it really messes with your psyche.

Yes! I have 2 male friends who are in their 40s and still live with their parents. WTF. They are both very negative. Wonder why. Again. It comes to purpose. We were meant to kill something and drag it home. Not to sit on FB all day, and watch movies while mommy cooks your meals. Get the f*k out of the house. Become a man, or a woman. But to stay home for years, and to leech off family members IMO is not a good thing.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

If your job duties are repetitive/standardized and could be trained in a day, fit in a Job Manual, and 100% covered by a policies and procedures guide, your job can basically be automated. All of the cognitive jobs that are not going away like developer, or analyst, or creative couldn’t be put in a book if you tried and will never be automated.

Well things like CPA's- gone. Physicians for the most part, anything that requires a systematic approach. Artists will compete with AI's, businesses better operated by upscaled Watson's so even corporate boards are redundant. Lawyers, and on and on. The hardest to replace will be jobs requiring mobility and dexterity such as plumbers. People like you are only a decade away from being obsolete because cognitive jobs are on the chopping block. It's just a matter of time before humans are inferior in every practical way.

Don't kid yourself and think otherwise.