Housing Crash #2 Under Way?

[Vette73]

Still going up in the N.VA and DC area. Flippers are back to work in N.VA/DC area.

The really strange thing is that we may end up with a housing shortage when this is all said and done.

The problem isn't so much that there are too many houses on the market, but that there isn't enough buyers and money chasing after those houses. On top of that too few new houses are being built right now, again lack of demand.

So when the economy does recover and we enter a real recovery we could be in a situation where there aren't enough houses for those who want to buy them.

I don't think there will be a shortage in general, but a shortage in the areas people want to live. They built well past the metro in N.VA/DC and the prices were high. But now no one really wants to live there as its to far from the metro/DC.

 

[Thump553]

Period of heavy inflation? Come back when you stop posting made up nonsense.

We certainly aren't experiencing 5% annual declines now in my state. Flat prices, long market times, but more like doldrums than a decline. In any event I wouldn't classify it as a double dip, more of a continuation of the prior decline which was temporarily aleviated/distorted by various incentive programs and foreclosure moratoriums. It will take a long, long time for the housing market to revitalize-about the time us boomers start dying off or heading to the nursing homes.

Oh and good luck on your buy Spidey. A little free advise-avoid short sales unless it is your dream house, you have lots of time and tolerance for being dicked around by morons that won't/can't make a decision. I'm not advertising but it wouldn't hurt to get a good local real estate attorney to represent you as well.

 

[IGBT]

your obama cheer leaders are having a hard time bolstering the worst president in history. Jimmy Carter must be relieved. Liberal bloated sense of destiny results in bloated denial. It's bad and everybody knows it. This is what happens when a symbolism over substance street agitator (your obama) wins a popularity contest and ends up in the white house .

 

[manimal]

your obama cheer leaders are having a hard time bolstering the worst president in history. Jimmy Carter must be relieved. Liberal bloated sense of destiny results in bloated denial. It's bad and everybody knows it. This is what happens when a symbolism over substance street agitator (your obama) wins a popularity contest and ends up in the white house .

are you replying to this thread or the voices in your head?


Just wondering because your post has no bearing at all to this discussion..

 

[Saint Nick]

I am wanting to buy a house within the next year or so...will the market still be in "good" condition to buy?

 

[Zebo]

Buy, buy, buy, buy!

But yeah, until the foreclosures are gone prices are going to keep dropping making it an incredible buying opportunity. We're getting ready to purchase and our RE agent is saying some 70% of their business is foreclosures or short sales.

Indy, if you want to sell that property price it below what comparables have actually sold for and you'll sell it. supply/demand. We had ours on the market last year for 8 months and not a single offer. Listed it again in march for 5k under sold comps and had offer in 3 days. Buyers are bargain hunting which is exactly what I'm doing. Hope to find our dream home for 250-300k discount.

1 year ago I told you don't do it. 6 months ago I told you don't do it. I'm telling you same now. We have further to go down.

-banks stills have tons of bad paper on the books the fed and accounting bending rules are allowing them to hide it but not forever.
-we are running 2T deficit injecting into economy and it's not helping, what happens when that stimulus disappears?
-why would you want to employ Americans with it's outrageous HC costs?
etc etc etc

 

[spidey07]

Period of heavy inflation? Come back when you stop posting made up nonsense.

We certainly aren't experiencing 5% annual declines now in my state. Flat prices, long market times, but more like doldrums than a decline. In any event I wouldn't classify it as a double dip, more of a continuation of the prior decline which was temporarily aleviated/distorted by various incentive programs and foreclosure moratoriums. It will take a long, long time for the housing market to revitalize-about the time us boomers start dying off or heading to the nursing homes.

Oh and good luck on your buy Spidey. A little free advise-avoid short sales unless it is your dream house, you have lots of time and tolerance for being dicked around by morons that won't/can't make a decision. I'm not advertising but it wouldn't hurt to get a good local real estate attorney to represent you as well.

I have heard that as well and getting the financing/closing all done with can be a train wreck lasting 6-12 months. I will be avoiding like the plague.

 

[spidey07]

1 year ago I told you don't do it. 6 months ago I told you don't do it. I'm telling you same now. We have further to go down.

-banks stills have tons of bad paper on the books the fed and accounting bending rules are allowing them to hide it but not forever.
-we are running 2T deficit injecting into economy and it's not helping, what happens when that stimulus disappears?
-why would you want to employ Americans with it's outrageous HC costs?
etc etc etc

This is our forever home/dream home. I don't care if it drops in price more after I buy. There are simply way too many bargains and rates are this low we'll never see an opportunity like this in my life time.

 

[JockoJohnson]

1 year ago I told you don't do it. 6 months ago I told you don't do it. I'm telling you same now. We have further to go down.

-banks stills have tons of bad paper on the books the fed and accounting bending rules are allowing them to hide it but not forever.
-we are running 2T deficit injecting into economy and it's not helping, what happens when that stimulus disappears?
-why would you want to employ Americans with it's outrageous HC costs?
etc etc etc

That's good news for me, bad news for others. My question is this: are the selling agents telling their clients that the market is shit (which I am sure sellers know) and that they should accept lower bids?

There sure do seem to be alot of stubborn sellers out there with houses on the market for 9-12 months. Either take the house off the market and wait for the economy to get better or face the facts and accept a lower offer.

 

[JS80]

More like a slow bleed vs a crash

 

[dmcowen674]

I guess if we were being fully honest, it would just be the same housing crash that was hidden by QE, QE2, and home buyer tax credits.

Home Prices: Double Dip Confirmed.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Home-...7.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

This is a huge deal, because with home prices falling ~5% (>10% in some areas) under a period of heavy inflation, they are in fact falling even faster in a hidden manner.

I really hope Bernake doesn't roll out QE3 because it'll be devastating to the bottom 80% (even more rapid inflation).

Dude the only people in the country not affected by this is the rich Republicans in here.

 

[ultimatebob]

I'm not sure how it can really be called a "double-dip" housing recession, considering that we never came even close from recovering from the first one. It's more like a slow death spiral if you ask me.

I know that my own house went from $166K to around $115K in four years, and then stabilized there for a year before it took another dip to $104K. As far as I'm concerned, there never was a recovery in my neighborhood.

 

[dullard]

I'm not sure how it can really be called a "double-dip" housing recession, considering that we never came even close from recovering from the first one. It's more like a slow death spiral if you ask me.

I know that my own house went from $166K to around $115K in four years, and then stabilized there for a year before it took another dip to $104K. As far as I'm concerned, there never was a recovery in my neighborhood.

The Case Schiller index of a few cities had a small uptick and back down. But, then housing is different in individual areas. The nationwide average mirrored your particular example: prices dropped, stabolized in 2010, and are starting to drop again.

 

[Macamus Prime]

Renting activities are up as well.

Not that many people want to own a home anymore.

 

[blackangst1]

your obama cheer leaders are having a hard time bolstering the worst president in history. Jimmy Carter must be relieved. Liberal bloated sense of destiny results in bloated denial. It's bad and everybody knows it. This is what happens when a symbolism over substance street agitator (your obama) wins a popularity contest and ends up in the white house .

lolwut

 

[Zebo]

That's good news for me, bad news for others. My question is this: are the selling agents telling their clients that the market is shit (which I am sure sellers know) and that they should accept lower bids?

There sure do seem to be alot of stubborn sellers out there with houses on the market for 9-12 months. Either take the house off the market and wait for the economy to get better or face the facts and accept a lower offer.

I can't speak to what RE agents are doing. My guess is since they only make their rake if they sell a house they'll tell buyer/seller anything (legal) to make sale. Even when times were good my RE agent would pester me to lower house price below comps. So yeah probably.

People are stubborn because they don't like a chunk taken out of their ass and news is, on tout TV & CNBC, we're in full recovery so what gives.

 

[spidey07]

Renting activities are up as well.

Not that many people want to own a home anymore.

It's because they can't afford them or are so uncertain about the future and scared of the commitment, not because they don't want a home. I read a poll the other day the some 85% of consumers don't think their situation is going to improve. You do know what foreclosures are, right? How about the huge dip in consumer confidence just released today?

There's a big economical funk in peoples minds right now. If folks aren't secure in their jobs or income they're not going to go out and make major purchases like a bigger home. Meanwhile those with the means are snatching up real estate left and right.

 

[DCal430]

It is mostly the lower and medium income areas that are lowering in value. The higher end areas here have been growing in value for over a year. At least that is how it is has been here, the farther away from the afulent areas the more the prices have dropped. Affluent areas have seen almost no price drop here, and many are higher than they have ever been.

 

[blackangst1]

It's because they can't afford them or are so uncertain about the future and scared of the commitment, not because they don't want a home. I read a poll the other day the some 85% of consumers don't think their situation is going to improve. You do know what foreclosures are, right? How about the huge dip in consumer confidence just released today?

There's a big economical funk in peoples minds right now. If folks aren't secure in their jobs or income they're not going to go out and make major purchases like a bigger home. Meanwhile those with the means are snatching up real estate left and right.

Correct. It's common knowledge for those that can, the best time to make money is in a recession. Luckily for folks like you and I, we've kept our jobs, our credit ratings, and our savings therefore able to take advantage of it by buying a first home. You dont have to be rich, but you do have to be responsible.

It is mostly the lower and medium income areas that are lowering in value. The higher end areas here have been growing in value for over a year. At least that is how it is has been here, the farther away from the afulent areas the more the prices have dropped. Affluent areas have seen almost no price drop here, and many are higher than they have ever been.

Same here in Phoenix. Its the first home/starter home/fixer-upper market thats dropping. Nicer neighborhoods, they are steady, or rising.

 

[Acanthus]

Period of heavy inflation? Come back when you stop posting made up nonsense.

Have you been to the grocery store this year? The gas pump? Looked at a utility bill?

How could you NOT see inflation?

The only thing that isn't skyrocketing is housing and cadmium-infused chinese toys.

 

[alphatarget1]

The federal government should've bought out abandoned subdivisions and move low-income housing there. Make people who want to live in it finish the houses by providing them with proper training.

 

[dullard]

Have you been to the grocery store this year? The gas pump? Looked at a utility bill?

How could you NOT see inflation?

The only thing that isn't skyrocketing is housing

So the things that cost almost nothing are going up (oh no my sugar bill has trippled to $3 a year) and the big ticket items are down (I save $10000 / year on housing)? Other big ticket items: computers are down, cars are flat, medical expenses actually are fairly flat (slightly up, but the price increase was far less than normal years). You have to keep scale in mind and not just focus on the little items.

By the way, piped gas service (a utility bill) costs are down 1.5% from this time last year. Your examples don't really match reality.

 

[Zebo]

It's because they can't afford them or are so uncertain about the future and scared of the commitment, not because they don't want a home. I read a poll the other day the some 85% of consumers don't think their situation is going to improve. You do know what foreclosures are, right? How about the huge dip in consumer confidence just released today?

There's a big economical funk in peoples minds right now. If folks aren't secure in their jobs or income they're not going to go out and make major purchases like a bigger home. Meanwhile those with the means are snatching up real estate left and right.

I wonder why? Have you seen outstanding credit at all levels personnel, municipal, state, federal? People are tapped, ask the banks, and no signs of improving their position with additional income. Signs point opposite. States laying off in droves, hiring freezes & pay cuts. Employers similar and still offshoring to cheaper Europe even. Nothing to do with minds but reality. You can't spend what you don't have or can't borrow. Businesses don't spend or grow when their is no demand. If you're a 1%er you are buying, it's no accident ~30-40% of home sales are investors hedging investments.

 

[JockoJohnson]

Dude the only people in the country not affected by this is the rich Republicans in here.

That's a BIG fucking bunch of bullshit. I am not affected...or actually, I am affected in a good way. I own my SMALL home free and clear. Why? Because I bought less than I could afford so I would be comfortable. I didn't buy more than I needed. I also bought in 2003 when prices were stupid but I found a good deal. I realized prices were high and remained determined to find a good deal.

Now I have a shit ton of money saved and am going to put down more than 20% on one of these homes that some jackass can no longer afford to live in because they overpaid. I am by no means rich. My wife and I combined make around 90k but we SAVE. Imagine that...somebody saving money and not buying every little thing that they don't need.

I am not a good person for the economy because I hoard my money but will soon spend a good bit once I get my new home and look to get all the fancy shit I have been holding off.

And by the way, who do you think lives in and around Beverly Hills, etc? A bunch of rich Republicans or elitist actors who mostly align with Democrats?

Just be smart and don't max your credit cards out. I do feel bad for those that got caught in lay-offs, unfortunate events, etc. but it sure as hell isn't representative of the whole country. Most people in a bad situation are just plain financially retarded.

 

[theeedude]

Awesome news for me as a near future home buyer, thanks. I had a feeling this would happen if stimulus runs out and there is forced austerity and trying to balance the budget in the middle of a weak recovery. There isn't really a reason to not wait for a second dip. The only way to avoid a second dip is to inflate out of it. But wait till I find a place and buy it dirt cheap first