Housing: 2007 Thread.

[WhipperSnapper]

Originally posted by: dullard
There are ~130M houses in the US. With housing starts currently at 1.47M/year, that is a 1.1% growth rate. The US population growth rate (including immigration) is currently ~0.9%. Thus, even with this lowered number of housing starts, housing is growing faster than our "rapidly expanding population". Your point isn't useful yet, at least not until housing starts go below 1.2M/year.

Where did you come up with the 0.9% figure for U.S. population growth? I'm not saying it's incorrect, I'm just wondering where you obtained it from.

According to the Census Bureau, between 1990 and 2000 the U.S. population exploded by 32.7 million people (not counting illegal aliens, I presume). So if the U.S. population were, say, 275 million in 1990, that would represent an 11.9% rate of population growth over 10 years. Dividing that by 10 you'd have growth of about 1.2% per year.

I know that isn't scientific; it's just a Mickey Mouse back-of-the-envelop calculation. My point is that 0.9% population growth per year seems a little low. Also, 305 million * 0.009 = 2.745 but the rate of growth in the decade of the 1990's averaged 3.27 million per year and today the population is even larger.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper
Where did you come up with the 0.9% figure for U.S. population growth? I'm not saying it's incorrect, I'm just wondering where you obtained it from.

According to the Census Bureau, between 1990 and 2000 the U.S. population exploded by 32.7 million people (not counting illegal aliens, I presume). So if the U.S. population were, say, 275 million in 1990, that would represent an 11.9% rate of population growth over 10 years. Dividing that by 10 you'd have growth of about 1.2% per year.

I think that back of the envelope calculation is pretty close. But the difference is that birth rates have declined in the US from the 2000 census.

I just did the Google search and kept coming up with 0.9% in articles such as this. Now that you asked, I looked it up specifically at the Census Bureau and they are estimating it at 1.0%.

+-0.1% here or there, I think we are close to the break even point. Housing is being built right now at about the rate population is increasing. So neither side really has any argument here.

 

[Trianon]

Countrywide CEO: No housing recovery before 2009

1 hour, 29 minutes ago

Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC.N) Chief Executive Angelo Mozilo said the U.S. housing market is unlikely to recover before 2009, as lenders and homeowners work through oversupply, stagnating home prices, and the excesses of recent lax lending standards in much of the mortgage industry.

"It just takes a long time to turn a battleship around," Mozilo said on a conference call discussing quarterly results for Countrywide, the largest U.S. mortgage lender. "This is a huge battleship, and we're headed in the wrong direction."

Calling it "a gut feeling," Mozilo said, "It's going to take the balance of this year to get this thing to look like it's slowing down (and) 2009 to head into the other direction."

Earlier, Countrywide said second-quarter profit fell 33 percent to $485.1 million, or 81 cents per share, from $722.2 million, or $1.15, a year earlier. It also cut its 2007 earnings forecast to $2.70 to $3.30 per share. It had forecast $3.50 to $4.30 in April, and $3.80 to $4.80 in January.

(Reporting by Jonathan Stempel)

You would think this guy would be interested to report the opposite

 

[theeedude]

Vic, where is your God now?
While you were moralizing here and calling me "scum" for participating in the free market, I made 20% in 1 month by shorting this RE turd through SRS.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Trianon

Countrywide CEO: No housing recovery before 2009

1 hour, 29 minutes ago

Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC.N) Chief Executive Angelo Mozilo said the U.S. housing market is unlikely to recover before 2009, as lenders and homeowners work through oversupply, stagnating home prices, and the excesses of recent lax lending standards in much of the mortgage industry.

"It just takes a long time to turn a battleship around," Mozilo said on a conference call discussing quarterly results for Countrywide, the largest U.S. mortgage lender. "This is a huge battleship, and we're headed in the wrong direction."

Calling it "a gut feeling," Mozilo said, "It's going to take the balance of this year to get this thing to look like it's slowing down (and) 2009 to head into the other direction."

Earlier, Countrywide said second-quarter profit fell 33 percent to $485.1 million, or 81 cents per share, from $722.2 million, or $1.15, a year earlier. It also cut its 2007 earnings forecast to $2.70 to $3.30 per share. It had forecast $3.50 to $4.30 in April, and $3.80 to $4.80 in January.

(Reporting by Jonathan Stempel)

You would think this guy would be interested to report the opposite

Wow, just over the weekend in another thread I said Countrywide would be lucky if it survived till the end of this year.

Of course I got the usual hate posts and it will never happen posts and look at this from them today.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: senseamp
Vic, where is your God now?
While you were moralizing here and calling me "scum" for participating in the free market, I made 20% in 1 month by shorting this RE turd through SRS.

Hmm... not only are you greedy AND completely ignorant to my arguments, but you're a troll too.

Thanks :roll:


And Dave, you get the hate posts because you clearly want to see this kind of negative economic news. It's one thing to "predict" (which you're actually not doing BTW), it's quite another to wish your own misery on others every single chance you get. Even worse than that is your desire (in my sig) to see all of America returned to the poverty and misery of pre-technology times simply for your own nihilist political agenda.
When will you idiots get it? It's as if you want another Republican in the White House in 2009. Or do you really believe that the American public is going to vote for the party whose extremists are calling for their economic disaster on the internet? But, hey, it's alright, you tell yourself, you're just trying to force social change at the expense of their livelihoods...
Get. a. clue.

 

[theeedude]

You can name call and engage in wishful thinking all day long, and it won't change the fact that while you were here riding your high horse and moralizing, those of us who put our money where our mouth is made good return on our money.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: senseamp
You can name call and engage in wishful thinking all day long, and it won't change the fact that while you were here riding your high horse and moralizing, those of us who put our money where our mouth is made good return on our money.

Uh... calling me out as you did is a textbook example of trolling.

Plus, you clearly STILL don't get your own hypocrisy. Whatever. You're profiting from the misfortune of others. But hey, why don't you keep pretending that you're looking cool on the internet by "predicting" an economic trend that began almost 2 years ago? You're a champion cage fighter on the internet!

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp
You can name call and engage in wishful thinking all day long, and it won't change the fact that while you were here riding your high horse and moralizing, those of us who put our money where our mouth is made good return on our money.

Uh... calling me out as you did is a textbook example of trolling.

And what was you calling me "scum"?

Plus, you clearly STILL don't get your own hypocrisy. Whatever. You're profiting from the misfortune of others.

Have you attacked drug companies with that reasoning too? Also, it's not a misfortune for people looking to enter the housing market. It's actually very fortunate for us.

But hey, why don't you keep pretending that you're looking cool on the internet by "predicting" an economic trend that began almost 2 years ago? You're a champion cage fighter on the internet!

It's not the trend, it's the magnitude of the trend that you are in denial over it.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: senseamp
And what was you calling me "scum"?

A statement of fact.

Have you attacked drug companies with that reasoning too? Also, it's not a misfortune for people looking to enter the housing market. It's actually very fortunate for us.

So are you saying that it would be better if the drug companies didn't exist at all? Or are you saying that the medical scientists who work for the drug companies shouldn't be paid for the medical cures they discover? Or that their investors shouldn't be compensated for investing in the discovery of those cures? Your reasoning is typical of a confused and entitlement-driven mind. What of your own pay? Are you not profitting by providing a service or product to someone who is in the "misfortune" of being in need of it?

It's not the trend, it's the magnitude of the trend that you are in denial over it.

Not even once. My actual predictions, which go back way before you joined here, have been right in line with what is actually happening in real life. It's LK and McOwen and some others who have been predicting unreasonable dire doom and gloom with statements like "when houses are worthless," etc.
LK, for example, has repeatedly denied the fact that investment properties are an investment paid for by the renter, and therefore is 2% return "rule" is completely bogus.
OTOH, he, you, and several others have repeatedly stated your/their desire to see the housing market tank into oblivion for the sake of your own personal profits (like you keep doing BTW). And yes, that does qualify as hypocrisy and "scum." You're shorting the f'ing housing market.

 

[theeedude]

Hell yeah, I am shorting the housing market, and I am not ashamed of it, and it doesn't make me scum. I am not burning people's houses down, I am simply acting on what I believe the future value of their houses will be, and it won't be the current value. The scum are the people who offered loans to people who could not afford them, who fueled this bubble that made housing unaffordable for millions of families trying to buy their first home. All shorting REITs is doing is borrowing stock from people who want to lend theirs out for a fee, and selling it to people who want to buy it. Everyone involved knows and agrees to what they are doing, and it's honest transaction. Not to be confused with tricking people into getting ballooning loans that they can not afford to pay and perpetuating this pyramid scheme. That's where the real scum is at.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: senseamp
Hell yeah, I am shorting the housing market, and I am not ashamed of it, and it doesn't make me scum. I am not burning people's houses down, I am simply acting on what I believe the future value of their houses will be, and it won't be the current value. The scum are the people who offered loans to people who could not afford them, who fueled this bubble that made housing unaffordable for millions of families trying to buy their first home. All shorting REITs is doing is borrowing stock from people who want to lend theirs out for a fee, and selling it to people who want to buy it. Everyone involved knows and agrees to what they are doing, and it's honest transaction. Not to be confused with tricking people into getting ballooning loans that they can not afford to pay and perpetuating this pyramid scheme. That's where the real scum is at.

Entitlement rationalization with paranoid shadowy villainization in action right here. Where's your tinfoil beanie?

How does this market assessment of yours line up with the actual "When lenders compete, you win" reality of the market for mortgage lenders? You realize that Wall Street was buying up everything originated (including the lenders and brokers themselves when they couldn't get enough paper), therefore any turned-down mortgage applicant could just go to another lender who actually would do it in order to buy a house.
Or about the reality (which you don't know because you've never bought a home) of the literal mountain of disclosure that a buyer has to go through in order to buy a home? When you bought your last car, did you sign all the paperwork without looking at it or evaluating whether or not you could afford it? Now take that volume of documents you signed there, and times it by about 20 or more.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp
Vic, where is your God now?
While you were moralizing here and calling me "scum" for participating in the free market, I made 20% in 1 month by shorting this RE turd through SRS.

Hmm... not only are you greedy AND completely ignorant to my arguments, but you're a troll too.

Thanks :roll:


And Dave, you get the hate posts because you clearly want to see this kind of negative economic news. It's one thing to "predict" (which you're actually not doing BTW), it's quite another to wish your own misery on others every single chance you get. Even worse than that is your desire (in my sig) to see all of America returned to the poverty and misery of pre-technology times simply for your own nihilist political agenda.
When will you idiots get it? It's as if you want another Republican in the White House in 2009. Or do you really believe that the American public is going to vote for the party whose extremists are calling for their economic disaster on the internet? But, hey, it's alright, you tell yourself, you're just trying to force social change at the expense of their livelihoods...
Get. a. clue.

Nice rant but it's your heroes causing people to no longer to be able to be on the grid.

When enough fall off you will have exactly what I said in your sig minus rich folks like yourself of course.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp
Hell yeah, I am shorting the housing market, and I am not ashamed of it, and it doesn't make me scum. I am not burning people's houses down, I am simply acting on what I believe the future value of their houses will be, and it won't be the current value. The scum are the people who offered loans to people who could not afford them, who fueled this bubble that made housing unaffordable for millions of families trying to buy their first home. All shorting REITs is doing is borrowing stock from people who want to lend theirs out for a fee, and selling it to people who want to buy it. Everyone involved knows and agrees to what they are doing, and it's honest transaction. Not to be confused with tricking people into getting ballooning loans that they can not afford to pay and perpetuating this pyramid scheme. That's where the real scum is at.

Entitlement rationalization with paranoid shadowy villainization in action right here. Where's your tinfoil beanie?

How does this market assessment of yours line up with the actual "When lenders compete, you win" reality of the market for mortgage lenders? You realize that Wall Street was buying up everything originated (including the lenders and brokers themselves when they couldn't get enough paper), therefore any turned-down mortgage applicant could just go to another lender who actually would do it in order to buy a house.
Or about the reality (which you don't know because you've never bought a home) of the literal mountain of disclosure that a buyer has to go through in order to buy a home? When you bought your last car, did you sign all the paperwork without looking at it or evaluating whether or not you could afford it? Now take that volume of documents you signed there, and times it by about 20 or more.

Displacement of irrational anger over people in your own life and yourself being in the industry that perpetuated the problem, not to mention an irrationally unrealistic belief that "longing" the market adds something.

Should I get a DSM and start looking up crap? I have an undergrad in psychology, we could trade this crap all day.

You can sell anything that has a steady cashflow to the Street, it's a simple matter of structuring it appropriately. I find it amusing that you think that liquidity aiding middle America is a good thing, yet the tool by which that liquidity flows is a bad thing. You sure cherry pick a lot of stuff.

Lets say that somebody builds a crappy car and somebody else builds a road for that crappy car to drive on. They attempt to limit the crappy car from going too fast, but in the end, it's still a crappy car. Is it the road builders fault for allowing the crappy car on the road?

I love how you think that adding rationality on the flip side of a market is the wrong thing to do. The market would go down either way and somebody always has to take the opposite position for it to do so. Denying that is to deny reality, which it seems like you are very good at.

Mortgage brokers and los were the first line and the most important line of defense in rationality. They were supposed to be in the trenches, guarding against fraud and unreal mortgages. The 'Street can't check every obligor to ensure they have a proper mortgage, that's what Representations and Warranties are for, it's the originator's obligation to ensure their borrowers were proper and their standards and practices adhered to all laws and proper underwriting techniques. The worst of the problem will be those loans which were approved inappropriately.

As far as lowering credit standards, proper enhancement was placed upon collateral, whether that collateral was incorrect is immaterial.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp
Vic, where is your God now?
While you were moralizing here and calling me "scum" for participating in the free market, I made 20% in 1 month by shorting this RE turd through SRS.

Hmm... not only are you greedy AND completely ignorant to my arguments, but you're a troll too.

Thanks :roll:


And Dave, you get the hate posts because you clearly want to see this kind of negative economic news. It's one thing to "predict" (which you're actually not doing BTW), it's quite another to wish your own misery on others every single chance you get. Even worse than that is your desire (in my sig) to see all of America returned to the poverty and misery of pre-technology times simply for your own nihilist political agenda.
When will you idiots get it? It's as if you want another Republican in the White House in 2009. Or do you really believe that the American public is going to vote for the party whose extremists are calling for their economic disaster on the internet? But, hey, it's alright, you tell yourself, you're just trying to force social change at the expense of their livelihoods...
Get. a. clue.

Nice rant but it's your heroes causing people to no longer to be able to be on the grid.

When enough fall off you will have exactly what I said in your sig minus rich folks like yourself of course.

Oh that's right! I forgot, I'm "rich" and Republicans are my "heroes" because I'm on the grid. Sorry...

Uhh... wait, Dave... how are you posting this then? Does that mean you're *GASP* on the grid too? What's that make you?

:roll:


The only good thing about you, Dave, is that your stupidity never ceases to amaze. If you got drunk, drove, and killed 100 people, you'd try to sue the auto manufacturer and the alcohol distiller.

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp
Hell yeah, I am shorting the housing market, and I am not ashamed of it, and it doesn't make me scum. I am not burning people's houses down, I am simply acting on what I believe the future value of their houses will be, and it won't be the current value. The scum are the people who offered loans to people who could not afford them, who fueled this bubble that made housing unaffordable for millions of families trying to buy their first home. All shorting REITs is doing is borrowing stock from people who want to lend theirs out for a fee, and selling it to people who want to buy it. Everyone involved knows and agrees to what they are doing, and it's honest transaction. Not to be confused with tricking people into getting ballooning loans that they can not afford to pay and perpetuating this pyramid scheme. That's where the real scum is at.

Entitlement rationalization with paranoid shadowy villainization in action right here. Where's your tinfoil beanie?

How does this market assessment of yours line up with the actual "When lenders compete, you win" reality of the market for mortgage lenders? You realize that Wall Street was buying up everything originated (including the lenders and brokers themselves when they couldn't get enough paper), therefore any turned-down mortgage applicant could just go to another lender who actually would do it in order to buy a house.
Or about the reality (which you don't know because you've never bought a home) of the literal mountain of disclosure that a buyer has to go through in order to buy a home? When you bought your last car, did you sign all the paperwork without looking at it or evaluating whether or not you could afford it? Now take that volume of documents you signed there, and times it by about 20 or more.

So you think the lending industry acted responsibly in pushing these loans to families, when they knew there was a very good chance that those families would not be able to afford them if houses stopped appreciating, and would have to foreclose. "Everyone was doing it" is not an excuse. This mess was created by loose lending standards of the lending industry, don't expect responsible investors like myself to help you keep your little pyramid scheme going. The difference between me and real estate lenders is they profited from a pyramid scheme, while I am profiting from returning to normalcy in the real estate market where housing prices are in line with rents and what people can afford. They are the real scum, I am the Lysol.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp
Hell yeah, I am shorting the housing market, and I am not ashamed of it, and it doesn't make me scum. I am not burning people's houses down, I am simply acting on what I believe the future value of their houses will be, and it won't be the current value. The scum are the people who offered loans to people who could not afford them, who fueled this bubble that made housing unaffordable for millions of families trying to buy their first home. All shorting REITs is doing is borrowing stock from people who want to lend theirs out for a fee, and selling it to people who want to buy it. Everyone involved knows and agrees to what they are doing, and it's honest transaction. Not to be confused with tricking people into getting ballooning loans that they can not afford to pay and perpetuating this pyramid scheme. That's where the real scum is at.

Entitlement rationalization with paranoid shadowy villainization in action right here. Where's your tinfoil beanie?

How does this market assessment of yours line up with the actual "When lenders compete, you win" reality of the market for mortgage lenders? You realize that Wall Street was buying up everything originated (including the lenders and brokers themselves when they couldn't get enough paper), therefore any turned-down mortgage applicant could just go to another lender who actually would do it in order to buy a house.
Or about the reality (which you don't know because you've never bought a home) of the literal mountain of disclosure that a buyer has to go through in order to buy a home? When you bought your last car, did you sign all the paperwork without looking at it or evaluating whether or not you could afford it? Now take that volume of documents you signed there, and times it by about 20 or more.

Displacement of irrational anger over people in your own life and yourself being in the industry that perpetuated the problem, not to mention an irrationally unrealistic belief that "longing" the market adds something.

Should I get a DSM and start looking up crap? I have an undergrad in psychology, we could trade this crap all day.

You can sell anything that has a steady cashflow to the Street, it's a simple matter of structuring it appropriately. I find it amusing that you think that liquidity aiding middle America is a good thing, yet the tool by which that liquidity flows is a bad thing. You sure cherry pick a lot of stuff.

Lets say that somebody builds a crappy car and somebody else builds a road for that crappy car to drive on. They attempt to limit the crappy car from going too fast, but in the end, it's still a crappy car. Is it the road builders fault for allowing the crappy car on the road?

I love how you think that adding rationality on the flip side of a market is the wrong thing to do. The market would go down either way and somebody always has to take the opposite position for it to do so. Denying that is to deny reality, which it seems like you are very good at.

Mortgage brokers and los were the first line and the most important line of defense in rationality. They were supposed to be in the trenches, guarding against fraud and unreal mortgages. The 'Street can't check every obligor to ensure they have a proper mortgage, that's what Representations and Warranties are for, it's the originator's obligation to ensure their borrowers were proper and their standards and practices adhered to all laws and proper underwriting techniques. The worst of the problem will be those loans which were approved inappropriately.

As far as lowering credit standards, proper enhancement was placed upon collateral, whether that collateral was incorrect is immaterial.

And more and more you just ignore reality. What good was that "first line and the most important line of defense" when the Street was throwing out the cash and buyers could just go to any broker who would approve them?
The denial of reality is your assumption that mortgage brokers are supposed to underwriters, or that they even had the power to approve loans in the first place! Of course they don't.

The more you post on this subject, LK, the more I realize you know jack all about it. Go back your beancounter desk, you counted the beans wrong.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp
Hell yeah, I am shorting the housing market, and I am not ashamed of it, and it doesn't make me scum. I am not burning people's houses down, I am simply acting on what I believe the future value of their houses will be, and it won't be the current value. The scum are the people who offered loans to people who could not afford them, who fueled this bubble that made housing unaffordable for millions of families trying to buy their first home. All shorting REITs is doing is borrowing stock from people who want to lend theirs out for a fee, and selling it to people who want to buy it. Everyone involved knows and agrees to what they are doing, and it's honest transaction. Not to be confused with tricking people into getting ballooning loans that they can not afford to pay and perpetuating this pyramid scheme. That's where the real scum is at.

Entitlement rationalization with paranoid shadowy villainization in action right here. Where's your tinfoil beanie?

How does this market assessment of yours line up with the actual "When lenders compete, you win" reality of the market for mortgage lenders? You realize that Wall Street was buying up everything originated (including the lenders and brokers themselves when they couldn't get enough paper), therefore any turned-down mortgage applicant could just go to another lender who actually would do it in order to buy a house.
Or about the reality (which you don't know because you've never bought a home) of the literal mountain of disclosure that a buyer has to go through in order to buy a home? When you bought your last car, did you sign all the paperwork without looking at it or evaluating whether or not you could afford it? Now take that volume of documents you signed there, and times it by about 20 or more.

Displacement of irrational anger over people in your own life and yourself being in the industry that perpetuated the problem, not to mention an irrationally unrealistic belief that "longing" the market adds something.

Should I get a DSM and start looking up crap? I have an undergrad in psychology, we could trade this crap all day.

You can sell anything that has a steady cashflow to the Street, it's a simple matter of structuring it appropriately. I find it amusing that you think that liquidity aiding middle America is a good thing, yet the tool by which that liquidity flows is a bad thing. You sure cherry pick a lot of stuff.

Lets say that somebody builds a crappy car and somebody else builds a road for that crappy car to drive on. They attempt to limit the crappy car from going too fast, but in the end, it's still a crappy car. Is it the road builders fault for allowing the crappy car on the road?

I love how you think that adding rationality on the flip side of a market is the wrong thing to do. The market would go down either way and somebody always has to take the opposite position for it to do so. Denying that is to deny reality, which it seems like you are very good at.

Mortgage brokers and los were the first line and the most important line of defense in rationality. They were supposed to be in the trenches, guarding against fraud and unreal mortgages. The 'Street can't check every obligor to ensure they have a proper mortgage, that's what Representations and Warranties are for, it's the originator's obligation to ensure their borrowers were proper and their standards and practices adhered to all laws and proper underwriting techniques. The worst of the problem will be those loans which were approved inappropriately.

As far as lowering credit standards, proper enhancement was placed upon collateral, whether that collateral was incorrect is immaterial.

And more and more you just ignore reality. What good was that "first line and the most important line of defense" when the Street was throwing out the cash and buyers could just go to any broker who would approve them?
The denial of reality is your assumption that mortgage brokers are supposed to underwriters, or that they even had the power to approve loans in the first place! Of course they don't.

The more you post on this subject, LK, the more I realize you know jack all about it. Go back your beancounter desk, you counted the beans wrong.

I use the roles interchangeably, I'd rather not list out every buffoon that was supposed to be doing there job but haven't been.

I know quite a bit about it, because I structure securitization deals all day. I've forgotten more about this subject than you'll ever know. At best you shuffle papers and imagine you're helping somebody.

Amazingly, you're the only person in this thread like you, everybody else can see it and everybody else knows it. Amazing how nobody is really countering me. You're pissing in the wind and getting wet, you're just too ignorant to realize it.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp
Hell yeah, I am shorting the housing market, and I am not ashamed of it, and it doesn't make me scum. I am not burning people's houses down, I am simply acting on what I believe the future value of their houses will be, and it won't be the current value. The scum are the people who offered loans to people who could not afford them, who fueled this bubble that made housing unaffordable for millions of families trying to buy their first home. All shorting REITs is doing is borrowing stock from people who want to lend theirs out for a fee, and selling it to people who want to buy it. Everyone involved knows and agrees to what they are doing, and it's honest transaction. Not to be confused with tricking people into getting ballooning loans that they can not afford to pay and perpetuating this pyramid scheme. That's where the real scum is at.

Entitlement rationalization with paranoid shadowy villainization in action right here. Where's your tinfoil beanie?

How does this market assessment of yours line up with the actual "When lenders compete, you win" reality of the market for mortgage lenders? You realize that Wall Street was buying up everything originated (including the lenders and brokers themselves when they couldn't get enough paper), therefore any turned-down mortgage applicant could just go to another lender who actually would do it in order to buy a house.
Or about the reality (which you don't know because you've never bought a home) of the literal mountain of disclosure that a buyer has to go through in order to buy a home? When you bought your last car, did you sign all the paperwork without looking at it or evaluating whether or not you could afford it? Now take that volume of documents you signed there, and times it by about 20 or more.

So you think the lending industry acted responsibly in pushing these loans to families, when they knew there was a very good chance that those families would not be able to afford them if houses stopped appreciating, and would have to foreclose. "Everyone was doing it" is not an excuse. This mess was created by loose lending standards of the lending industry, don't expect responsible investors like myself to help you keep your little pyramid scheme going. The difference between me and real estate lenders is they profited from a pyramid scheme, while I am profiting from returning to normalcy in the real estate market where housing prices are in line with rents and what people can afford. They are the real scum, I am the Lysol.

Whew! Thank God we have people with absolutely ZERO knowledge and experience here to cast judgement on what happened!

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp
Hell yeah, I am shorting the housing market, and I am not ashamed of it, and it doesn't make me scum. I am not burning people's houses down, I am simply acting on what I believe the future value of their houses will be, and it won't be the current value. The scum are the people who offered loans to people who could not afford them, who fueled this bubble that made housing unaffordable for millions of families trying to buy their first home. All shorting REITs is doing is borrowing stock from people who want to lend theirs out for a fee, and selling it to people who want to buy it. Everyone involved knows and agrees to what they are doing, and it's honest transaction. Not to be confused with tricking people into getting ballooning loans that they can not afford to pay and perpetuating this pyramid scheme. That's where the real scum is at.

Entitlement rationalization with paranoid shadowy villainization in action right here. Where's your tinfoil beanie?

How does this market assessment of yours line up with the actual "When lenders compete, you win" reality of the market for mortgage lenders? You realize that Wall Street was buying up everything originated (including the lenders and brokers themselves when they couldn't get enough paper), therefore any turned-down mortgage applicant could just go to another lender who actually would do it in order to buy a house.
Or about the reality (which you don't know because you've never bought a home) of the literal mountain of disclosure that a buyer has to go through in order to buy a home? When you bought your last car, did you sign all the paperwork without looking at it or evaluating whether or not you could afford it? Now take that volume of documents you signed there, and times it by about 20 or more.

Displacement of irrational anger over people in your own life and yourself being in the industry that perpetuated the problem, not to mention an irrationally unrealistic belief that "longing" the market adds something.

Should I get a DSM and start looking up crap? I have an undergrad in psychology, we could trade this crap all day.

You can sell anything that has a steady cashflow to the Street, it's a simple matter of structuring it appropriately. I find it amusing that you think that liquidity aiding middle America is a good thing, yet the tool by which that liquidity flows is a bad thing. You sure cherry pick a lot of stuff.

Lets say that somebody builds a crappy car and somebody else builds a road for that crappy car to drive on. They attempt to limit the crappy car from going too fast, but in the end, it's still a crappy car. Is it the road builders fault for allowing the crappy car on the road?

I love how you think that adding rationality on the flip side of a market is the wrong thing to do. The market would go down either way and somebody always has to take the opposite position for it to do so. Denying that is to deny reality, which it seems like you are very good at.

Mortgage brokers and los were the first line and the most important line of defense in rationality. They were supposed to be in the trenches, guarding against fraud and unreal mortgages. The 'Street can't check every obligor to ensure they have a proper mortgage, that's what Representations and Warranties are for, it's the originator's obligation to ensure their borrowers were proper and their standards and practices adhered to all laws and proper underwriting techniques. The worst of the problem will be those loans which were approved inappropriately.

As far as lowering credit standards, proper enhancement was placed upon collateral, whether that collateral was incorrect is immaterial.

And more and more you just ignore reality. What good was that "first line and the most important line of defense" when the Street was throwing out the cash and buyers could just go to any broker who would approve them?
The denial of reality is your assumption that mortgage brokers are supposed to underwriters, or that they even had the power to approve loans in the first place! Of course they don't.

The more you post on this subject, LK, the more I realize you know jack all about it. Go back your beancounter desk, you counted the beans wrong.

I use the roles interchangeably, I'd rather not list out every buffoon that was supposed to be doing there job but haven't been.

I know quite a bit about it, because I structure securitization deals all day. I've forgotten more about this subject than you'll ever know. At best you shuffle papers and imagine you're helping somebody.

Amazingly, you're the only person in this thread like you, everybody else can see it and everybody else knows it. Amazing how nobody is really countering me. You're pissing in the wind and getting wet, you're just too ignorant to realize it.

Please STFU with your constant lies and personal attacks.

If you think that mortgage brokers have any involvement in approving loans, then you don't know what you're talking about. To use yet another analogy that you will miscontrue for the sake of a pointless and off-base personal attack, that would be like blaming a car salesmen because the manufacturer built unreliable cars.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp
Hell yeah, I am shorting the housing market, and I am not ashamed of it, and it doesn't make me scum. I am not burning people's houses down, I am simply acting on what I believe the future value of their houses will be, and it won't be the current value. The scum are the people who offered loans to people who could not afford them, who fueled this bubble that made housing unaffordable for millions of families trying to buy their first home. All shorting REITs is doing is borrowing stock from people who want to lend theirs out for a fee, and selling it to people who want to buy it. Everyone involved knows and agrees to what they are doing, and it's honest transaction. Not to be confused with tricking people into getting ballooning loans that they can not afford to pay and perpetuating this pyramid scheme. That's where the real scum is at.

Entitlement rationalization with paranoid shadowy villainization in action right here. Where's your tinfoil beanie?

How does this market assessment of yours line up with the actual "When lenders compete, you win" reality of the market for mortgage lenders? You realize that Wall Street was buying up everything originated (including the lenders and brokers themselves when they couldn't get enough paper), therefore any turned-down mortgage applicant could just go to another lender who actually would do it in order to buy a house.
Or about the reality (which you don't know because you've never bought a home) of the literal mountain of disclosure that a buyer has to go through in order to buy a home? When you bought your last car, did you sign all the paperwork without looking at it or evaluating whether or not you could afford it? Now take that volume of documents you signed there, and times it by about 20 or more.

Displacement of irrational anger over people in your own life and yourself being in the industry that perpetuated the problem, not to mention an irrationally unrealistic belief that "longing" the market adds something.

Should I get a DSM and start looking up crap? I have an undergrad in psychology, we could trade this crap all day.

You can sell anything that has a steady cashflow to the Street, it's a simple matter of structuring it appropriately. I find it amusing that you think that liquidity aiding middle America is a good thing, yet the tool by which that liquidity flows is a bad thing. You sure cherry pick a lot of stuff.

Lets say that somebody builds a crappy car and somebody else builds a road for that crappy car to drive on. They attempt to limit the crappy car from going too fast, but in the end, it's still a crappy car. Is it the road builders fault for allowing the crappy car on the road?

I love how you think that adding rationality on the flip side of a market is the wrong thing to do. The market would go down either way and somebody always has to take the opposite position for it to do so. Denying that is to deny reality, which it seems like you are very good at.

Mortgage brokers and los were the first line and the most important line of defense in rationality. They were supposed to be in the trenches, guarding against fraud and unreal mortgages. The 'Street can't check every obligor to ensure they have a proper mortgage, that's what Representations and Warranties are for, it's the originator's obligation to ensure their borrowers were proper and their standards and practices adhered to all laws and proper underwriting techniques. The worst of the problem will be those loans which were approved inappropriately.

As far as lowering credit standards, proper enhancement was placed upon collateral, whether that collateral was incorrect is immaterial.

And more and more you just ignore reality. What good was that "first line and the most important line of defense" when the Street was throwing out the cash and buyers could just go to any broker who would approve them?
The denial of reality is your assumption that mortgage brokers are supposed to underwriters, or that they even had the power to approve loans in the first place! Of course they don't.

The more you post on this subject, LK, the more I realize you know jack all about it. Go back your beancounter desk, you counted the beans wrong.

I use the roles interchangeably, I'd rather not list out every buffoon that was supposed to be doing there job but haven't been.

I know quite a bit about it, because I structure securitization deals all day. I've forgotten more about this subject than you'll ever know. At best you shuffle papers and imagine you're helping somebody.

Amazingly, you're the only person in this thread like you, everybody else can see it and everybody else knows it. Amazing how nobody is really countering me. You're pissing in the wind and getting wet, you're just too ignorant to realize it.

Please STFU with your constant lies and personal attacks.

If you think that mortgage brokers have any involvement in approving loans, then you don't know what you're talking about. To use yet another analogy that you will miscontrue for the sake of a pointless and off-base personal attack, that would be like blaming a car salesmen because the manufacturer built unreliable cars.

Funny, who tosses the personal attacks constantly? You accuse others of doing exactly what you do. Look in the mirror sparky and quit trying to play righteous indignation, it's tired.

They may not approve it, as I mentioned LOs, but they push it through and are often the first ones to jam things.

 

[theeedude]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: senseamp
Hell yeah, I am shorting the housing market, and I am not ashamed of it, and it doesn't make me scum. I am not burning people's houses down, I am simply acting on what I believe the future value of their houses will be, and it won't be the current value. The scum are the people who offered loans to people who could not afford them, who fueled this bubble that made housing unaffordable for millions of families trying to buy their first home. All shorting REITs is doing is borrowing stock from people who want to lend theirs out for a fee, and selling it to people who want to buy it. Everyone involved knows and agrees to what they are doing, and it's honest transaction. Not to be confused with tricking people into getting ballooning loans that they can not afford to pay and perpetuating this pyramid scheme. That's where the real scum is at.

Entitlement rationalization with paranoid shadowy villainization in action right here. Where's your tinfoil beanie?

How does this market assessment of yours line up with the actual "When lenders compete, you win" reality of the market for mortgage lenders? You realize that Wall Street was buying up everything originated (including the lenders and brokers themselves when they couldn't get enough paper), therefore any turned-down mortgage applicant could just go to another lender who actually would do it in order to buy a house.
Or about the reality (which you don't know because you've never bought a home) of the literal mountain of disclosure that a buyer has to go through in order to buy a home? When you bought your last car, did you sign all the paperwork without looking at it or evaluating whether or not you could afford it? Now take that volume of documents you signed there, and times it by about 20 or more.

So you think the lending industry acted responsibly in pushing these loans to families, when they knew there was a very good chance that those families would not be able to afford them if houses stopped appreciating, and would have to foreclose. "Everyone was doing it" is not an excuse. This mess was created by loose lending standards of the lending industry, don't expect responsible investors like myself to help you keep your little pyramid scheme going. The difference between me and real estate lenders is they profited from a pyramid scheme, while I am profiting from returning to normalcy in the real estate market where housing prices are in line with rents and what people can afford. They are the real scum, I am the Lysol.

Whew! Thank God we have people with absolutely ZERO knowledge and experience here to cast judgement on what happened!

Yes, the only people allowed to cast judgment should be the ones in the lending industry that created this mess, since you are the ones with experience. :roll:
SRS broke 100 today, so I know enough to make almost 25% return in 1 month. I may not be a lender or real estate buyer, but I know how to value financial assets well enough for me to see that Real Estate is seriously overvalued and will come down. That's all I need to know.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Funny, who tosses the personal attacks constantly? You accuse others of doing exactly what you do. Look in the mirror sparky and quit trying to play righteous indignation, it's tired.

They may not approve it, as I mentioned LOs, but they push it through and are often the first ones to jam things.

Right... "me and my ilk" will keep that in mind while you keep making up sh!t. Mortgage brokers and LOs are mostly just order-takers. They don't approve anything, and them "pushing it through" doesn't make a deal anymore likely to be approved. That's just a comical argument on your part.

 

[Vic]

Originally posted by: senseamp
Yes, the only people allowed to cast judgment should be the ones in the lending industry that created this mess, since you are the ones with experience. :roll:
SRS broke 100 today, so I know enough to make almost 25% return in 1 month. I may not be a lender or real estate buyer, but I know how to value financial assets well enough for me to see that Real Estate is seriously overvalued and will come down. That's all I need to know.

Where did I say that the only ones to cast judgement should be people in the lending industry?

Yaknow, when the dot-com bubble hit, predictable and on schedule, why the very first thing I did was blame all the stock brokers! Surely all the people dumping their life savings into e-businesses with no revenues or even a business plan could have been at fault in any way!


The best investment advice I ever got is attributed to Henry Ford. It is said that he lost very little money in the crash of '29, and the reasoning he supposedly gave was that "when shoe shine boys started giving me 'hot' stock tips, I knew it was time to sell."
The biggest problem with today's markets, dot-com, housing, etc etc is that they are all completely dominated by the shoe shine boys and their "hot" tips.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Vic

Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Funny, who tosses the personal attacks constantly? You accuse others of doing exactly what you do. Look in the mirror sparky and quit trying to play righteous indignation, it's tired.

They may not approve it, as I mentioned LOs, but they push it through and are often the first ones to jam things.

Right... "me and my ilk" will keep that in mind while you keep making sh!t. Mortgage brokers and LOs are mostly just order-takers. They don't approve anything, and them "pushing it through" doesn't make a deal anymore likely to be approved. That's just a comical argument on your part.

From what I have read, they did enough pushing to keep things moving. As I said, I may not be listing out underwriters or any of the other structure, but it's all the same. You're trying to bog down in technicalities when you know that isn't a truthful way of doing things.

Again, don't claim righteous indignation if you're running around calling people scum. You have no high-ground, no safe place to call people out on name calling, or tossing insults.