Housing: 2007 Thread.

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smack Down

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2005
4,507
0
0
Originally posted by: PingSpike
Originally posted by: smack Down
Originally posted by: HomeAppraiser
Heavy discounts off of Craigslist 26% cash back paid 30 days after closing

Yeah for more fraud.

I don't get the "cash back options"...what the hell is that? Just lower the price, I'm not sending in a mail in rebate for a fvcking house. Granted, I don't know what I'm talking about really, but when something smells I don't take a bite.

The idea behind cash back is so you can pay closing cost or make minor repairs to the building. However the idea behind 26% cash back is to screw the lender. As soon as the buyer gets their 26% mail in rebate they are gone and the house will go back to the lender. The lender gets screwed because they made a loan for an amount that wasn't covered by the house.
 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,379
96
86
Heh, just got an email from KB homes advertising for 2700sqft homes in Roseville (10 miles east of Sacramento) for the mid 400s. Wow, two years ago they were close to 600K.

 

PingSpike

Lifer
Feb 25, 2004
21,758
603
126
Originally posted by: smack Down
Originally posted by: PingSpike
Originally posted by: smack Down
Originally posted by: HomeAppraiser
Heavy discounts off of Craigslist 26% cash back paid 30 days after closing

Yeah for more fraud.

I don't get the "cash back options"...what the hell is that? Just lower the price, I'm not sending in a mail in rebate for a fvcking house. Granted, I don't know what I'm talking about really, but when something smells I don't take a bite.

The idea behind cash back is so you can pay closing cost or make minor repairs to the building. However the idea behind 26% cash back is to screw the lender. As soon as the buyer gets their 26% mail in rebate they are gone and the house will go back to the lender. The lender gets screwed because they made a loan for an amount that wasn't covered by the house.

Ok, I see where your fraud thing comes in. That makes sense. But in the case of the smaller cash back for closing costs or minor repairs...I still don't understand why they don't just drop the price on the house an equivilent amount instead. Wouldn't that be simplier for all involved, in addition to being less fraud prone?
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
26,066
4,712
126
Originally posted by: PingSpike
Ok, I see where your fraud thing comes in. That makes sense. But in the case of the smaller cash back for closing costs or minor repairs...I still don't understand why they don't just drop the price on the house an equivilent amount instead. Wouldn't that be simplier for all involved, in addition to being less fraud prone?
I agree with you (also, the buyer is likely to pay less property tax because the house can be arguably worth more to the tax assessor if the buyer just paid a lot). But,

(1) If the seller is a business (home builder, or other company that owns a lot of homes for sale in that market area) then the business doesn't want to lower the perceived value of home in the area. Suppose this buisness is selling 20 comparable homes in a local area. If the first home sells for 26% more, then the other 19 homes get higher appraisals because a comparable home sold for so much. Buyers see that other people are paying a premium for homes in that area and feel the homes are worth more in that location, so the other 19 homes get interested buyers. Etc. The opposite is true for a home selling at a discount. If one goes for a low price, it brings down the price of all of the other 19 homes.

(2) The buyers and sellers have little direct incentive to drop the price vs giving a rebate. To them, the just see the net price being the same in both cases (and they overlook the minor details).

(3) The buyers and sellers are being given advice from "professionals" who's commission depends on the value of that home. Neither the seller's realtor nor the buyer's realtor sure the heck don't want the commission lowered. With the 26% higher buying price, the realtors get 26% more commission. They may very well be encouraging the buyers and sellers to go for the 26% rebate.
 

PingSpike

Lifer
Feb 25, 2004
21,758
603
126
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: PingSpike
Ok, I see where your fraud thing comes in. That makes sense. But in the case of the smaller cash back for closing costs or minor repairs...I still don't understand why they don't just drop the price on the house an equivilent amount instead. Wouldn't that be simplier for all involved, in addition to being less fraud prone?
I agree with you (also, the buyer is likely to pay less property tax because the house can be arguably worth more to the tax assessor if the buyer just paid a lot). But,

(1) If the seller is a business (home builder, or other company that owns a lot of homes for sale in that market area) then the business doesn't want to lower the perceived value of home in the area. Suppose this buisness is selling 20 comparable homes in a local area. If the first home sells for 26% more, then the other 19 homes get higher appraisals because a comparable home sold for so much. Buyers see that other people are paying a premium for homes in that area and feel the homes are worth more in that location, so the other 19 homes get interested buyers. Etc. The opposite is true for a home selling at a discount. If one goes for a low price, it brings down the price of all of the other 19 homes.

(2) The buyers and sellers have little direct incentive to drop the price vs giving a rebate. To them, the just see the net price being the same in both cases (and they overlook the minor details).

(3) The buyers and sellers are being given advice from "professionals" who's commission depends on the value of that home. Neither the seller's realtor nor the buyer's realtor sure the heck don't want the commission lowered. With the 26% higher buying price, the realtors get 26% more commission. They may very well be encouraging the buyers and sellers to go for the 26% rebate.

I figured it was something like that...selling for what people will pay while trying to mitigate the damaging effects that has on the preceived value. Sounds like everyone does well with the system with the exception of the buyer, who gets screwed more then he/she likely thinks.

Hopefully this type of behavior will die out as people become more decerning in the slowing market.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Heh, just got an email from KB homes advertising for 2700sqft homes in Roseville (10 miles east of Sacramento) for the mid 400s. Wow, two years ago they were close to 600K.
Pretty amazing stuff especially since resident Republicans said this would never happen.

3-20-2007 As Foreclosures Rise, Houses in Detroit Cheaper Than Cars

DETROIT ? With bidding stalled on some of the least desirable residences in Detroit's collapsing housing market, even the fast-talking auctioneer was feeling the stress.

"Folks, the ground underneath the house goes with it. You do know that, right?" he offered.

After selling house after house in the Motor City for less than the $29,000 it costs to buy the average new car, the auctioneer tried a new line: "The lumber in the house is worth more than that!"

Steve Izairi, 32, who re-financed his own house in suburban Dearborn and sold his restaurant to begin buying rental properties in Detroit two years, was concerned that houses he thought were bargains at $70,000 two years ago were now selling for just $35,000.

At least 16 Detroit houses up for sale on Sunday sold for $30,000 or less.

A boarded-up bungalow on the city's west side brought $1,300. A four-bedroom house near the original Motown recording studio sold for $7,000.

"You can't buy a used car for that," said Izairi. "It's a gamble, and you have to wonder how low it's going to get."

Detroit, where unemployment runs near 14 percent and a third of the population lives in poverty, leads the nation in new foreclosure filings, according to tracking service RealtyTrac.

With large swaths of the city now abandoned, banks are reclaiming and reselling Detroit homes from buyers who can no longer afford payments at seven times the national rate.

Realtor Ron Walraven had a three-bedroom house in the suburb of Bloomfield Hills that had listed for $525,000 sell for just $130,000 at the auction.

"Once we've seen the last person leave Michigan, then I think we'll be able to say we've seen the bottom," he said.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117444618278043762.html?mod=todays_us_opinion

Mortgage Meltdown
By ANDY LAPERRIERE
March 21, 2007

Stock markets world-wide have sold off the past few weeks over concerns the collapse of the subprime mortgage industry could prolong and deepen the housing slump and threaten the health of the U.S. economy. Federal Reserve officials and most economists believe the problems in the subprime mortgage market will remain relatively contained, but there is compelling evidence that the failure of subprime loans may be the start of a painful unwinding of a housing bubble that was fueled by easy money and loose lending practices.

Whether measured in absolute terms or time-tested metrics such as price-to-income or price-to-rent ratios, the rise in U.S. home prices during the past six years is unprecedented. What's more, not only has mortgage debt doubled during this time, but loans have been offered on imprudent terms (for instance, a no down payment, no income verification loan to a borrower with a checkered credit history).


It's no coincidence that the five-fold growth in subprime lending occurred at a time when home prices soared to nosebleed territory. As home prices kept rising, fewer loans went bad because the homeowner could almost always refinance or sell the property at a profit. (Until the past year or so, it seems the only person in California who sold his house at a loss was the convicted lobbyist who in 2003 bribed former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham by buying his house at an inflated price and selling it six months later for $700,000 less.)

As the home price boom gained momentum and delinquencies dropped, lenders offered progressively easier and riskier lending terms. Common sense suggests that the boom-time mania that led banks (and investors in mortgage-backed securities) to offer dangerous loans to individuals with poor credit histories also led them to offer the same kinds of risky loans (no income verification, no down payments, high payments as a share of income, low teaser rates) to individuals with good credit scores.

Far from being limited to the subprime market, the data show these risky loan features have become widespread. According to Credit Suisse, the number of no or low documentation loans -- so-called "liar loans" -- has increased to 49% last year from 18% of purchase loans in 2001, a nearly three-fold increase. The investment bank also found that borrowers put up less than a 5% down payment in 46% of all home purchases last year. Inside Mortgage Finance estimates that nontraditional mortgages -- mostly interest-only and pay-option ARMs that allow the borrower to defer paying back principal or even increase the loan balance each month -- which barely existed five years ago, grew to close to a third of all mortgages last year.

The Alt-A market, a middle ground between subprime and prime, has increased seven-fold since 2001 and accounted for 20% of home-purchase loans last year. Fully 81% of Alt-A loans last year were no or low documentation loans, according to First American Loan Performance. Why have borrowers employed this kind of risky financing? Because it was the only way many of them could afford a home in some of the hottest housing markets, where prices more than doubled in five years.

It should come as no surprise that delinquencies on these unconventional loans have increased sharply. Investors were shaken last week by a Mortgage Bankers Association report which found that mortgage delinquencies hit nearly 5% at the end of last year and that prime adjustable rate loans deteriorated at a faster rate than subprime ARMs. A recent UBS report finds that the 2006 Alt-A loans are "on track to be one of the worst vintages ever." This is no subprime niche problem.

Even if bad loans are more widespread than previously expected, many housing bulls say, the impact on the housing market and the economy will be minimal because total losses due to foreclosures will be a small percentage of outstanding mortgage debt and a still smaller share of the economy. A similar argument holds that bad loans won't lead to a broader foreclosure problem because the average American has plenty of equity in his home.

Foreclosure losses as a share of the economy will be small and most homeowners have a comfortable amount of equity in their homes. In fact, about one-third of homeowners have no mortgage and own their homes outright, but they are not the reason home prices have been driven to the stratosphere. Home prices -- like all prices -- are set at the margin. It was the marginal buyer, particularly the subprime borrower and housing speculator, who drove prices higher. The easing of lending terms increased the demand for homes, and since the supply of homes is relatively fixed (or inelastic), this increase in demand quickly translated into higher prices. As the loose lending practices are inevitably reversed -- and there is a wide chasm between current lending practices and prudent lending terms -- fewer people will be able to afford to buy a house, which will reduce demand and push home prices lower.

It's not the size of foreclosure losses as a share of the economy that matters, it is the effect those losses have on the availability of credit. When banks (and investors in mortgage-backed securities) begin suffering losses, they inevitably pull back. This is why so many subprime companies have gone bankrupt virtually overnight; investors balked at buying subprime loans except at a steep discount, which produced immediate losses. In effect, their ability to profitably finance new loans was eliminated.

What's more, the bank regulators are only now beginning to tighten lending standards and will be under increasing pressure from Congress to do more. After growing by nearly 50% in the first half of 2006, nontraditional loan growth has turned negative since the bank regulators issued new guidelines last September. The CFO of Countrywide recently told an investor conference that 60% of the subprime loans the company is making won't meet proposed federal rules likely to take effect during the summer. The concern that tighter lending standards could reduce access to financing is the reason a widely watched survey of homebuilders conducted by the National Association of Homebuilders dropped earlier this week.

The report by Credit Suisse estimates mortgage originations could drop 21% during the next year or two because of tighter credit standards. Coupled with high inventories of unsold homes and the additional supply likely from distressed sellers, this drop in demand could produce an unprecedented nationwide decline in home prices. Merrill Lynch estimates prices could drop as much as 10% this year. A price drop of this magnitude would lead to a vicious cycle in the housing market and pose a major risk to economic growth. And, of course, it would create a raging political firestorm.

Tomorrow the Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing featuring the bank regulators as well as top executives from a number of subprime lenders, all of whom are likely to be the subject of some tough questioning. The collapse of the subprime industry and the increase in foreclosures are serious issues and congressional oversight is important and appropriate. However, Congress should proceed with caution as legislation designed to protect the consumer from "predatory" lending could exacerbate the credit crunch just beginning in the subprime market.

The fact that Congress is now holding hearings on the fallout from the second major asset price bubble in the last decade should prompt some broader questions. For example, what role did the Fed's loose monetary policy from 2002-2004 play in fueling the housing bubble? Should the Federal Reserve reexamine its policy of ignoring asset bubbles?

Asset bubbles are harmful for the same reason high inflation is: Both create misleading price signals that lead to a misallocation of economic resources and sow the seeds for an inevitable bust. The unwinding of today's housing bubble is not merely an academic question; it is likely to inflict real hardship on millions of Americans. To reduce the risk of a similar outcome in the future, it is important that policy makers, economists, and policy analysts properly diagnose the root causes of the current housing bust, not just its symptoms.
 

Starbuck1975

Lifer
Jan 6, 2005
14,698
1,909
126
Does anyone know what the process is for shopping foreclosures. I have been using a number of online databases, most noteably foreclosure.com, and while these sites tend to list numerous foreclosures, you have to pay for access to more specific information.

The word on the street is that the rise in foreclosures could cause a bubble crash, and that foreclosure properties are often available at below market value.

My wife and I have been patiently waiting a price adjustment to purchase our first home...but we aren't all that savvy on how real estate works.

Is there a process, or resources available, for purchasing foreclosed properties?
 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,379
96
86
Looks like BB is determined to keep the faucets of money running and inflate away the housing bubble. Be prepared for your dollars to keep on losing value.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Looks like BB is determined to keep the faucets of money running and inflate away the housing bubble. Be prepared for your dollars to keep on losing value.
What else did you expect? I've been saying for years that the "boom" in the housing markets was just inflation. In the meantime, the Fed is devaluing the national debt caused by decades of unchecked government spending. Clearly we need even more centralized control to make sure that the little guy gets sh!t on that much more, right?
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: Vic
Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Looks like BB is determined to keep the faucets of money running and inflate away the housing bubble. Be prepared for your dollars to keep on losing value.
What else did you expect? I've been saying for years that the "boom" in the housing markets was just inflation. In the meantime, the Fed is devaluing the national debt caused by decades of unchecked government spending. Clearly we need even more centralized control to make sure that the little guy gets sh!t on that much more, right?


Hmmm...according to most available information housing in the last decade increased 80 index points (120 -> 200) *REMOVING* inflation, whereas that 20pt increase from 100 (initial index start) took 115 years.

Inflation had nothing to do with this boom, especially when you consider that core goods needed for manufacturing of housing didn't raise in price nearly as fast (not even a significant fraction).

This isn't only supported by Shiller's index, but also other sources, including government sources which show annual housing appreciation oustripping inflation by a factor of 3-4:1.

This comes at a time when inflation is managed to a very low point, in fact some of the lowest and steadiest in history.

Keep shifting blame and reality.

 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Vic
Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Looks like BB is determined to keep the faucets of money running and inflate away the housing bubble. Be prepared for your dollars to keep on losing value.
What else did you expect? I've been saying for years that the "boom" in the housing markets was just inflation. In the meantime, the Fed is devaluing the national debt caused by decades of unchecked government spending. Clearly we need even more centralized control to make sure that the little guy gets sh!t on that much more, right?


Hmmm...according to most available information housing in the last decade increased 80 index points (120 -> 200) *REMOVING* inflation, whereas that 20pt increase from 100 (initial index start) took 115 years.

Inflation had nothing to do with this boom, especially when you consider that core goods needed for manufacturing of housing didn't raise in price nearly as fast (not even a significant fraction).

This isn't only supported by Shiller's index, but also other sources, including government sources which show annual housing appreciation oustripping inflation by a factor of 3-4:1.

This comes at a time when inflation is managed to a very low point, in fact some of the lowest and steadiest in history.

Keep shifting blame and reality.

What shifting of blame and reality? You're trying to imply that every market and every commodity inflates at the same rate. You're only fooling yourself there if you think that inflation has been "managed" in such a way.

As for this need for emotionalism and blame you've come up with up lately, I suggest you cool down before you become the new McOwen here. Just because I disagree with the full extent of your Chicken Littleisms doesn't mean that I'm to blame for anything.
 
Oct 30, 2004
11,442
32
91
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Realtor Ron Walraven had a three-bedroom house in the suburb of Bloomfield Hills that had listed for $525,000 sell for just $130,000 at the auction.

It should be noted that Bloomfield Hills is one of the wealthiest areas in the metro Detroit region, filled with million dollar mansions and houses on lakes. Perhaps this particular three bedroom house was near the city of Pontiac, which is an impoverished, high-crime ghetto (an island of blight and poverty surrounded by otherwise upper middle class suburbs).

 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
26,066
4,712
126
Originally posted by: Starbuck1975
The word on the street is that the rise in foreclosures could cause a bubble crash, and that foreclosure properties are often available at below market value.

Is there a process, or resources available, for purchasing foreclosed properties?
1) Houses typically sell at market value. If the market valued the house more than the selling price, then the people would offer more than the purchase price. If the market valued the house less than the selling price, then either no offers would be made or all offers would be below the selling price.

2) A better statement would be: foreclosure properties are often available at prices lower than they would be if the foreclosure properties were fixed up.

3) I've known a couple of people who were foreclosed on and my GF just bought a house that was almost foreclosed (the banks started the foreclosure process but kept delaying it due to her offer). In each case, the house was in shambles. (A) The previous owners didn't have enough money for the house, thus they didn't properly maintain things; important repairs went unrepaired and thus greater damage was done. (B) The previous owners were often forcefully removed from the house, so they take revenge on the house - think sabotage, clutter, and unhealthy "deposits". (C) The house often sits vacant for 6-12 months, pipes will break in freezing weather, animals will have taken residence, etc. That is why the houses sell for less than they could have been worth.

4) Thus, IF you can fix it yourself cheaply, you can significantly raise the value. In my GF's case, we took a month ripping down drywall and fixing the plumbing (the house was only 7 years old, but two winters without heat did quite a lot of damage to a house that wasn't winterized). But the repairs cost her next to nothing (drywall and copper pipes are dirt cheap) and she probably raised the house value $10,000 with those repairs (comparing it to the price of equivalent houses that weren't in foreclosure). If you have to pay others a high price to do the work, you might not have really found a bargain. It probably would have cost my GF $10k to pay others to do all the work we put into it - leaving her with no real incentive to buy that particular house.

5) I can't help you find foreclosures, since I have no idea of where to look.

Cliffs: the houses are cheap for a reason, be prepared to cheaply, but properly, fix it yourself otherwise a foreclosure isn't worth your hassle.
 

Trianon

Golden Member
Jun 13, 2000
1,789
0
71
www.conkurent.com
interesting development, creditors adapt on the fly, but the turmoil is gonna cause grief to larger audience:

Subprime Loan Meltdown Engulfs Even Borrowers With Good Credit

By Jody Shenn

March 22 (Bloomberg) -- The subprime credit crunch is beginning to ensnare even borrowers with good credit.

Lenders are increasingly refusing to lend to homebuyers who can't make a down payment of more than 5 percent, especially if they won't document their income. Until recently such borrowers qualified for so-called Alt A mortgages, which rank between prime and subprime in terms of risk. Last year the category accounted for about 20 percent of the $3 trillion of U.S. mortgages, about the same as subprime loans, according to Credit Suisse Group.

``It's going to be very difficult, if not impossible, to do a no-money-down loan at any credit score,'' said Alex Gemici, president of Parsippany, New Jersey-based mortgage bank Montgomery Mortgage Capital Corp. Companies that buy the loans ``are all saying if they haven't eliminated them yet, they'll eliminate them shortly.''

Tighter lending standards may slash subprime mortgage sales in half this year and Alt A mortgages by a quarter, according to Ivy Zelman, a Credit Suisse analyst in New York who covers homebuilders. The new requirements will force some prospective homebuyers to save more money for a down payment or risk being denied credit.

Pulling Back

Bear Stearns Cos., General Electric Co.'s WMC Mortgage, Countrywide Financial Corp., IndyMac Bancorp Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Credit Suisse have all said in the last two weeks they're pulling back from buying Alt A mortgages sold with no down payment or in a refinancing of the house's entire value. Such companies facilitate the mortgage market by buying loans and repackaging them for sale as bonds to buyers such as insurers and hedge funds.

``We've been warned,'' said Cheryl Hand, manager of Prudential New Jersey Properties' office in Manalapan, New Jersey. She said she's hoping a client of her realty brokerage who's been approved to buy a home with nothing down won't have the loan quashed before the closing.

Mortgages are categorized as Alt A when they fall just short of the typical standards of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest U.S. mortgage companies. Besides some loans requiring no down payment or proof of income, they are often made to buy a second home, a rental unit or to speculate on real estate. Also often falling into the category are loans that are ``option'' adjustable-rate mortgages, whose minimum payments can fail to cover the interest owed.

Defaults Rising

Consumers borrowed 100 percent of their home's value on about 18 percent of Alt A loans made last year, according to Bear Stearns, the largest mortgage-bond underwriter. Another 16 percent had loan-to-value ratios above 90 percent as well as limited documentation, they say. The category comprised about 5 percent of new loans in 2002, according to Credit Suisse.

Late payments of at least 60 days and defaults on Alt A mortgages have risen about as fast as on subprime ones, to about 2.4 percent, according to bond analysts at UBS AG. Loans in the category made to borrowers with low credit scores, equity and documentation are doing about as badly as subprime loans, according to Citigroup Inc. and Bear Stearns analysts.

Rapid credit tightening that's ``been isolated to the subprime world has really migrated'' in the past two weeks to Alt A offerings that involve borrowing nearly all of a home's worth, said Brian Simon, senior vice president at Mount Laurel, New Jersey-based mortgage bank Freedom Mortgage Corp. ``We're just hopeful it will settle down soon.''

California Prices

A borrower would have to come up with $23,750 to make a 5 percent down payment on a typical home in California, based on a $472,000 median price estimated by DataQuick Information Systems in La Jolla, California. She'd have to show enough income to pay $2,730.87 a month with a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.15 percent.

``It doesn't help somebody to get into a home when they can't afford to make the payments and continue living there,'' said Ann McGinley, owner of Action Mortgage, a brokerage in Santa Rosa, California, that's turned away a ``few buyers'' with good credit who may have been able to get loans last year.

While loans issued only on the basis of the borrower's ``stated'' income can be abused, they're appropriate for a divorcee with alimony who ``doesn't want to show an underwriter her paperwork because it's private'' or a borrower with a reliable roommate, she said. ``I personally have made a couple of real estate agents angry by advising people to not buy.''

Limits Welcomed

Some lenders say it's high time that buyers are discouraged from buying real estate with no money down.

``Could we have a little skin in the game from the borrower, please,'' said Rick Soukoulis, chief executive officer at LoanCity, a San Jose, California-based lender that stopped making mortgages last week to customers who want to borrow more than 95 percent of the value of their house due to the shrinking secondary market. ``Something to lose if you go into default?''

LoanCity, which made about $6 billion in mortgages last year, went out of business on March 20.

The slump in subprime loans has ``drastically eroded'' appetite for bonds backed by Alt A loans, according to a March 9 report by Credit Suisse. The extra yield that investors typically demand on the parts of the securitizations with the lowest investment-grade ratings have risen to 3.50 percentage points over the one-month London interbank offered rate from 2.15 percentage points in September, according to Bear Stearns.

Resale Woes

``If you couldn't sell something, you wouldn't do it either,'' UBS analyst David Liu in New York said. Part of the problem is falling demand for ``piggyback'' home-equity loans used to make down payments, he said.

New York-based Citigroup will no longer buy home-equity loans made to borrowers who won't prove their incomes and want more than 95 percent of their home's value, according to e-mails from salespeople. Mark Rogers, a spokesman, declined to comment.

New York-based Bear Stearns, the third-largest Alt A lender according to newsletter National Mortgage News, last week stopped buying such loans without down payments of at least 5 percent. For borrowers not fully documenting incomes or assets, the maximum loan-to-value ratio will be 90 percent.

Bear Stearns' EMC Mortgage unit told loan sellers of the changes on March 13, giving them a day's notice. On Feb. 26, EMC said it would start requiring down payments of only 5 percent in the low-documentation category, giving sellers until March 12 to submit loans under the old standards. On March 1, the deadline moved to March 6. EMC didn't change ``full documentation'' programs then.

People with poor or limited credit records or high debt burdens can take out only subprime mortgages, and typically pay rates at least two or three percentage points above prime loans. Subprime lenders have been increasingly raising their standards since mid-2006, and started cutting out nothing-down lending in late January, Montgomery's Gemici said. People who qualify for prime mortgages don't experience any trouble getting a loan.

Lower Standards

Bear Stearns will finance 25 percent to 30 percent fewer non-prime mortgages this year as it tightens credit, Chief Financial Officer Sam Molinaro said on the company's earnings call last week.

``Last year, we did about 50 percent less in subprime than we did the year before,'' Mary Haggerty, co-head of Bear Stearns' mortgage finance department, said in an interview, adding that it has been tightening Alt A standards since December. ``We always try to be ahead of the market.''

Countrywide Financial, the nation's top home lender, this month stopped making any loans with down payments of less than 5 percent when borrowers are ``stating'' both income and assets.

Since they have good credit, most borrowers able to take out loans with little down and high monthly payments relative to their pay or potentially rising ones knew the risks, Countrywide Financial CEO Angelo Mozilo said in an interview.

``People are adults and made choices in their lives because they wanted to own a home of their own,'' Mozilo said. ``America's great because people can make those decisions for themselves. The complaints about the loans only came when the opportunity for enrichment was gone'' because home prices flattened out.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jody Shenn in New York at jshenn@bloomberg.net .
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
26,066
4,712
126
Originally posted by: Trianon
"It's going to be very difficult, if not impossible, to do a no-money-down loan at any credit score,'' said Alex Gemici, president of Parsippany, New Jersey-based mortgage bank Montgomery Mortgage Capital Corp. Companies that buy the loans "are all saying if they haven't eliminated them yet, they'll eliminate them shortly.''
I posted this idea a week or two back. Some lenders at that time began ending the zero-down loan. Vic adamantly denied that would ever be the case. As he is in the business, I trust him a lot. But I think this is a thing we will have to watch closely.

If subprime buyers are mostly cut out and if the zero-down buyers are mostly cut out, there will be a lot fewer customers buying those houses. Fewer customers right at a time when demand has slackened. That is NOT a good combination for house prices.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: Trianon
"It's going to be very difficult, if not impossible, to do a no-money-down loan at any credit score,'' said Alex Gemici, president of Parsippany, New Jersey-based mortgage bank Montgomery Mortgage Capital Corp. Companies that buy the loans "are all saying if they haven't eliminated them yet, they'll eliminate them shortly.''
I posted this idea a week or two back. Some lenders at that time began ending the zero-down loan. Vic adamantly denied that would ever be the case. As he is in the business, I trust him a lot. But I think this is a thing we will have to watch closely.

If subprime buyers are mostly cut out and if the zero-down buyers are mostly cut out, there will be a lot fewer customers buying those houses. Fewer customers right at a time when demand has slackened. That is NOT a good combination for house prices.


Do not forget that if secondardy purchasers refuse to buy them then the lenders will either have to hold them or sell them off at significant discount. Either way it will increase the capital requirements and costs for originating mortgages, leading to higher borrowing costs for the average borrower.

Great for Hedge Funds and others who can take some risk, because they are going to be bringing in lots of subs pretty cheaply. Very bad for everybody else since the market can't take much increase in borrowing costs.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: Trianon
"It's going to be very difficult, if not impossible, to do a no-money-down loan at any credit score,'' said Alex Gemici, president of Parsippany, New Jersey-based mortgage bank Montgomery Mortgage Capital Corp. Companies that buy the loans "are all saying if they haven't eliminated them yet, they'll eliminate them shortly.''
I posted this idea a week or two back. Some lenders at that time began ending the zero-down loan. Vic adamantly denied that would ever be the case. As he is in the business, I trust him a lot. But I think this is a thing we will have to watch closely.

If subprime buyers are mostly cut out and if the zero-down buyers are mostly cut out, there will be a lot fewer customers buying those houses. Fewer customers right at a time when demand has slackened. That is NOT a good combination for house prices.


Do not forget that if secondardy purchasers refuse to buy them then the lenders will either have to hold them or sell them off at significant discount. Either way it will increase the capital requirements and costs for originating mortgages, leading to higher borrowing costs for the average borrower.

Great for Hedge Funds and others who can take some risk, because they are going to be bringing in lots of subs pretty cheaply. Very bad for everybody else since the market can't take much increase in borrowing costs.

1. Dullard is wrong. I did not adamantly deny that zero-down loans would disappear. I said that they already exist in more forms than just subprime and Alt-A, and gave examples of VA, FHA, and similar government and community supported zero-down programs that will not be effected by this shake-up. In fact, the thread at that point went into a discussion about the merits of VA loans by those who had actually acquired them. So either Dullard is being ignorant here, or he is intentionally mischaracterizing. Either way, I don't appreciate it. One has to ask why he can't be honest here is he supposedly trusts me so much.

2. I'm glad that LK is finally starting to own up to the REAL blame here, which is the big Wall Street houses that he works for that have provided all the funds for the subprime and Alt-A mortgage lenders, and set all their lending guidelines, right down to telling the mortgage lenders exactly what their rate sheets should look like and exactly what the underwriting criteria should be. But nah, he won't actually do that, it might disrupt his short-selling.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
26,066
4,712
126
Originally posted by: Vic
1. Dullard is wrong. I did not adamantly deny that zero-down loans would disappear. I said that they already exist in more forms than just subprime and Alt-A, and gave examples of VA, FHA, and similar government and community supported zero-down programs that will not be effected by this shake-up. In fact, the thread at that point went into a discussion about the merits of VA loans by those who had actually acquired them. So either Dullard is being ignorant here, or he is intentionally mischaracterizing. Either way, I don't appreciate it. One has to ask why he can't be honest here is he supposedly trusts me so much.
Calm down there, Vic. Take a few minutes and relax. Then come back and enjoy the forums once again.

I posted the banks may be ending zero-down loans. For some odd reason I can't find your reply (was it in the same thread that I posted that?, I know you replied to me on the subject). Your reply was to calm the fears that the banks wouldn't be ending it. You listed a government sponsored program (at a time when the governement is looking to change laws dealing with housing, are these programs safe?). Government programs have nothing at all to do with my post about banks ending the loans. Maybe that is where the mischaracterizing came from - your original reply didn't address my post. Thus when I reply to your reply, it isn't really on the original topic any more.

So, lets get back to the original topic and keep it focussed. Are banks (without any special cases that only apply to a subset of buyers, such as VA loans) ending the zero-down loans? Or will these loans still be abundant? Will I, a person who doesn't qualify for those programs, be able to get a zero-down mortgage in lets say 1 year?
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Originally posted by: Vic

1. Dullard is wrong. I did not adamantly deny that zero-down loans would disappear. I said that they already exist in more forms than just subprime and Alt-A, and gave examples of VA, FHA, and similar government and community supported zero-down programs that will not be effected by this shake-up. In fact, the thread at that point went into a discussion about the merits of VA loans by those who had actually acquired them. So either Dullard is being ignorant here, or he is intentionally mischaracterizing. Either way, I don't appreciate it. One has to ask why he can't be honest here is he supposedly trusts me so much.

2. I'm glad that LK is finally starting to own up to the REAL blame here, which is the big Wall Street houses that he works for that have provided all the funds for the subprime and Alt-A mortgage lenders, and set all their lending guidelines, right down to telling the mortgage lenders exactly what their rate sheets should look like and exactly what the underwriting criteria should be. But nah, he won't actually do that, it might disrupt his short-selling.

1. Considering that a lot of people, other than banks, are shutting down Alt-A funding sources, it isn't too hard to imagine that this will lead to further closure on the 0-down area.

2. Lets be realistic here. Mortgages are funded in several ways, but it basically breaks down into three simple paths. Either the company itself keeps them and raises unsecured debt and equity and funds at the company WACC, it securitizes the assets itself whether it's term or short-term conduit funding, or it sells the assets to other people, who then fund them through their own channels, whether that be further term securitization, asset backed conduits.

Now, holding on balance sheet through unsecured debt and equity is very costly, as equity is expensive as is unsecured debt. Not to mention that regulatory capital requirements require extra retained capital, and accounting standards require loss reserves. All of this can be very costly to lenders, which is passed on to consumers.

The 2nd way of funding mortgages is self-MBS issuance. These programs are underwritten by banks but are also checked and rated by Rating Agencies who look at the collateral of the loans, historical performance, and determine how to structure the issuances so that every lender takes the appropriate risk. They then bid on those bonds, demanding an interest rate compensation for their respective risk. Since sub-prime has been a point of concern in the last few years for agencies, companies like Fitch have raised over-collateralization requirements, meaning that for every $1 of loan you put in, you may only get $.80 in bonds sold, that $.20 is OC, which protects investors from losses. The selling company holds that OC, as a first-loss position. Meaning that if defaults are too high for collected interest to cover, then the OC absorbs additional losses.

OC requirements have been climbing, since Rating Agencies have seen the looming storm. Thus, borrowing costs have been increasing (since OC is funded through WACC). However, this has been stemmed by lenders selling OC to hedge funds and other investors.

The 3rd way of funding assets is to sell whole-loan. You organize a pool of assets and sell all rights, responsabilities, and balance (including accrued interest) to other organizations who then either sell or securitize. These sales can be at discount to the face value of the loan (depending on risk).

Admittedly, money has been "loose" for the last couple years as foreign and domestic investors have been willing to fund mortgages, even going down-credit to do so. They have done this, thinking times would keep going well, at low rates. Thus, you get low borrowing costs to the ultimate borrowers.

However, i-banks do not control how lenders underwrite the initial loans, they only dictate what they will and will not buy and at what prices. These prices are set not only by banks, but also by rating agencies, government regulators, and international regulators. Issues such as FAS140/155/156, capital requirements, and BASLE II, set the amounts for which banks and ultimately the purchasers of the securities must pay to purchase and hold the securities, all of this is based upon risk and return, especially the perception of risk on the forward basis.

Might have some banks told lenders that they would fund riskier paper? Perhaps, but the oversight is significant, both from regulators and agencies, thus it wouldn't be easy.

Ultimately, it comes down to placement of responsability. I-bankers do not extend the loans to borrowers, they just fund the loans on the back-end. They do not set document requirements, they just tell you what they will pay for a certain level of documentation. They do not force lenders to lie to applicants or mislead them as to the properties of the loan. They do due-diligence to try and catch such fraud and other problems, as do the Rating Agencies, but they are not all-knowing and all-seeing.

No, the real blame doesn't lie upon those who extend funding, but those who extend the actual loans and entice those who wish to borrow to do so. They are the ones who pushed exotic products down-credit in the hopes of making a quick buck.

Go ahead Vic, shift blame. Your industry is unscrupulous and lacks significant oversight. There is too few checks and balances, which is not as true for my industry.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
3-22-2007 Credit counselors overwhelmed by U.S. mortgage crisis

Demand for counseling appointments at CCCS's Cincinnati offices has risen 87 percent from a year earlier.

Britton said people should call a reputable credit counselor as soon as they're in trouble. Loans can be restructured, and emergency funding may be available. But she admits the counseling industry is already overwhelmed.

"If I stop answering calls to actually talk to a client and help them, the messages pile up, and there's no time to call them all back," Britton said. "It's only going to get worse."
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
Originally posted by: dullard
Originally posted by: Vic
1. Dullard is wrong. I did not adamantly deny that zero-down loans would disappear. I said that they already exist in more forms than just subprime and Alt-A, and gave examples of VA, FHA, and similar government and community supported zero-down programs that will not be effected by this shake-up. In fact, the thread at that point went into a discussion about the merits of VA loans by those who had actually acquired them. So either Dullard is being ignorant here, or he is intentionally mischaracterizing. Either way, I don't appreciate it. One has to ask why he can't be honest here is he supposedly trusts me so much.
Calm down there, Vic. Take a few minutes and relax. Then come back and enjoy the forums once again.

I posted the banks may be ending zero-down loans. For some odd reason I can't find your reply (was it in the same thread that I posted that?, I know you replied to me on the subject). Your reply was to calm the fears that the banks wouldn't be ending it. You listed a government sponsored program (at a time when the governement is looking to change laws dealing with housing, are these programs safe?). Government programs have nothing at all to do with my post about banks ending the loans. Maybe that is where the mischaracterizing came from - your original reply didn't address my post. Thus when I reply to your reply, it isn't really on the original topic any more.

So, lets get back to the original topic and keep it focussed. Are banks (without any special cases that only apply to a subset of buyers, such as VA loans) ending the zero-down loans? Or will these loans still be abundant? Will I, a person who doesn't qualify for those programs, be able to get a zero-down mortgage in lets say 1 year?

For some reason, the search isn't working for me in finding that thread either. However, I do recall the discussion clearly, including Fobot's reply about how great his VA loan was. And I felt that I was on topic with your discussion, just like here. You said zero-down loans were disappearing, I pointed out how they weren't.

And yes, you could qualify, even if you're not a veteran. FHA only requires that you purchase a home at or below the median price for your area AND that you not have any previous history of defrauding the government, while many other community-based programs are equally generous (for example, Fannie Mae's community program caps income limits to 150% of median for your area). Those aren't going away.

Hell, I closed a no-down purchase on a standard conforming program just the other day. The borrower had an 800 FICO, low debt ratios, and more than a year of his income in savings (all fully documented of course). That program ain't never going away.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
Originally posted by: LegendKiller
Originally posted by: Vic

1. Dullard is wrong. I did not adamantly deny that zero-down loans would disappear. I said that they already exist in more forms than just subprime and Alt-A, and gave examples of VA, FHA, and similar government and community supported zero-down programs that will not be effected by this shake-up. In fact, the thread at that point went into a discussion about the merits of VA loans by those who had actually acquired them. So either Dullard is being ignorant here, or he is intentionally mischaracterizing. Either way, I don't appreciate it. One has to ask why he can't be honest here is he supposedly trusts me so much.

2. I'm glad that LK is finally starting to own up to the REAL blame here, which is the big Wall Street houses that he works for that have provided all the funds for the subprime and Alt-A mortgage lenders, and set all their lending guidelines, right down to telling the mortgage lenders exactly what their rate sheets should look like and exactly what the underwriting criteria should be. But nah, he won't actually do that, it might disrupt his short-selling.

1. Considering that a lot of people, other than banks, are shutting down Alt-A funding sources, it isn't too hard to imagine that this will lead to further closure on the 0-down area.

2. Lets be realistic here. Mortgages are funded in several ways, but it basically breaks down into three simple paths. Either the company itself keeps them and raises unsecured debt and equity and funds at the company WACC, it securitizes the assets itself whether it's term or short-term conduit funding, or it sells the assets to other people, who then fund them through their own channels, whether that be further term securitization, asset backed conduits.

Now, holding on balance sheet through unsecured debt and equity is very costly, as equity is expensive as is unsecured debt. Not to mention that regulatory capital requirements require extra retained capital, and accounting standards require loss reserves. All of this can be very costly to lenders, which is passed on to consumers.

The 2nd way of funding mortgages is self-MBS issuance. These programs are underwritten by banks but are also checked and rated by Rating Agencies who look at the collateral of the loans, historical performance, and determine how to structure the issuances so that every lender takes the appropriate risk. They then bid on those bonds, demanding an interest rate compensation for their respective risk. Since sub-prime has been a point of concern in the last few years for agencies, companies like Fitch have raised over-collateralization requirements, meaning that for every $1 of loan you put in, you may only get $.80 in bonds sold, that $.20 is OC, which protects investors from losses. The selling company holds that OC, as a first-loss position. Meaning that if defaults are too high for collected interest to cover, then the OC absorbs additional losses.

OC requirements have been climbing, since Rating Agencies have seen the looming storm. Thus, borrowing costs have been increasing (since OC is funded through WACC). However, this has been stemmed by lenders selling OC to hedge funds and other investors.

The 3rd way of funding assets is to sell whole-loan. You organize a pool of assets and sell all rights, responsabilities, and balance (including accrued interest) to other organizations who then either sell or securitize. These sales can be at discount to the face value of the loan (depending on risk).

Admittedly, money has been "loose" for the last couple years as foreign and domestic investors have been willing to fund mortgages, even going down-credit to do so. They have done this, thinking times would keep going well, at low rates. Thus, you get low borrowing costs to the ultimate borrowers.

However, i-banks do not control how lenders underwrite the initial loans, they only dictate what they will and will not buy and at what prices. These prices are set not only by banks, but also by rating agencies, government regulators, and international regulators. Issues such as FAS140/155/156, capital requirements, and BASLE II, set the amounts for which banks and ultimately the purchasers of the securities must pay to purchase and hold the securities, all of this is based upon risk and return, especially the perception of risk on the forward basis.

Might have some banks told lenders that they would fund riskier paper? Perhaps, but the oversight is significant, both from regulators and agencies, thus it wouldn't be easy.

Ultimately, it comes down to placement of responsability. I-bankers do not extend the loans to borrowers, they just fund the loans on the back-end. They do not set document requirements, they just tell you what they will pay for a certain level of documentation. They do not force lenders to lie to applicants or mislead them as to the properties of the loan. They do due-diligence to try and catch such fraud and other problems, as do the Rating Agencies, but they are not all-knowing and all-seeing.

No, the real blame doesn't lie upon those who extend funding, but those who extend the actual loans and entice those who wish to borrow to do so. They are the ones who pushed exotic products down-credit in the hopes of making a quick buck.

Go ahead Vic, shift blame. Your industry is unscrupulous and lacks significant oversight. There is too few checks and balances, which is not as true for my industry.

Blah blah blah is that all you ever do? I know exactly how subprime mortgages are funded up to secondary, thank you very much. You don't need to bore us with technical details in an attempt to obscure who is really controlling the purse strings. In the meantime, your Wall Street buddies just pulled one of the biggest pump-and-dump scams in history. But no worries, they'll have plenty of apologists like you and plenty of money left over to buy as many talking heads and politicians as needed.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
Congressman Ron Paul: Don't Blame the Market for Housing Bubble

March 19, 2007

The U.S. housing market, long considered vulnerable by many economists, is now on the verge of suffering a serious collapse in many regions. Commodities guru and hedge fund manager Jim Rogers warns that real estate in expensive bubble areas will drop 40 or 50%. Mainstream media outlets like the New York Times are reporting breathlessly about the possibility of widespread defaults on subprime mortgages.

When the bubble finally bursts completely, millions of Americans will be looking for someone to blame. Look for Congress to hold hearings into subprime lending practices and ?predatory? mortgages. We?ll hear a lot of grandstanding about how unscrupulous lenders took advantage of poor people, and how rampant speculation caused real estate markets around the country to overheat. It will be reminiscent of the Enron hearings, and the message will be explicitly or implicitly the same: free-market capitalism, left unchecked, leads to greed, fraud, and unethical if not illegal business practices.

But capitalism is not to blame for the housing bubble, the Federal Reserve is. Specifically, Fed intervention in the economy-- through the manipulation of interest rates and the creation of money-- caused the artificial boom in mortgage lending.

The Fed has roughly tripled the amount of dollars and credit in circulation just since 1990. Housing prices have risen dramatically not because of simple supply and demand, but because the Fed literally created demand by making the cost of borrowing money artificially cheap. When credit is cheap, individuals tend to borrow too much and spend recklessly.

This is not to say that all banks, lenders, and Wall Street firms are blameless. Many of them are politically connected, and benefited directly from the Fed?s easy money policies. And some lenders did make fraudulent or unethical loans. But every cent they loaned was first created by the Fed.

The actions of lenders are directly attributable to the policies of the Fed: when credit is cheap, why not loan money more recklessly to individuals who normally would not qualify? Even with higher default rates, lenders could make huge profits simply through volume. Subprime lending is a symptom of the housing bubble, not the cause of it.

Fed credit also distorts mortgage lending through Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two government schemes created by Congress supposedly to help poor people. Fannie and Freddie enjoy an implicit guarantee of a bailout by the federal government if their loans default, and thus are insulated from market forces. This insulation spurred investors to make funds available to Fannie and Freddie that otherwise would have been invested in other securities or more productive endeavors, thereby fueling the housing boom.

The Federal Reserve provides the mother?s milk for the booms and busts wrongly associated with a mythical ?business cycle.? Imagine a Brinks truck driving down a busy street with the doors wide open, and money flying out everywhere, and you?ll have a pretty good analogy for Fed policies over the last two decades. Unless and until we get the Federal Reserve out of the business of creating money at will and setting interest rates, we will remain vulnerable to market bubbles and painful corrections. If housing prices plummet and millions of Americans find themselves owing more than their homes are worth, the blame lies squarely with Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke.
 

Vic

Elite Member
Jun 12, 2001
50,422
14,337
136
LK, is this you?

`Short Sellers' Who Predicted Subprime Rout See More Declines

By Michael Patterson

March 21 (Bloomberg) -- The collapse in shares of subprime- mortgage companies over the past month rewarded so-called short sellers who bet that rising defaults among the riskiest borrowers would curb lenders' profits.

Some traders who predicted declines in shares of New Century Financial Corp., NovaStar Financial Inc. and Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co. say such stocks may fall further as loan delinquencies increase and demand for mortgage-backed securities wanes. New Century sank 90 percent last month, while NovaStar lost 73 percent. Accredited slid 54 percent.

``The subprime guys are history,'' said Steven Persky, chief executive officer of the $1.1 billion Los Angeles-based hedge fund Dalton Investments LLC, which began shorting shares of subprime lenders two years ago. ``They're ultimately going to have to file'' for bankruptcy.

New Century, NovaStar and Accredited Home were some of the most-shorted U.S. stocks from Feb. 12 to March 12, the date of last month's short-sale statistics from the New York Stock Exchange.

Short interest in the stocks climbed last month after New Century, the biggest specialist in home loans made to people with relatively low credit ratings, and HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe's biggest bank, said losses from bad U.S. home loans were piling up faster than they expected.

About 36 percent of New Century's shares available for trading, or float, was borrowed and sold to profit from falling prices. Traders sold short 46 percent of Accredited's float, while 44 percent of NovaStar's float was shorted.

Defaults Increased

Jeff Gentle, a NovaStar spokesman, declined to comment. New Century spokeswoman Laura Oberhelman didn't return a voice message seeking comment. Accredited spokesman Rick Howe also didn't reply to a message seeking comment.

The NYSE and American Stock Exchange will report March short-interest figures after the close of trading today. The Nasdaq Stock Market will follow on March 27.

Defaults on subprime loans increased as competition and a slower housing market prompted lenders to lower their standards and give mortgages to borrowers who couldn't make their monthly payments. More than 24 subprime lenders closed or sought buyers since the start of 2006 as late payments and defaults climbed.

Shares of mortgage companies plunged on Feb. 8 after New Century said it probably lost money in the last quarter and wouldn't make as many loans this year as it had previously forecast. HSBC said it set aside $1.76 billion more than analysts estimated to cover bad loans in 2006.

`No Skin in Game'

``The lending standards had loosened to the point where virtually anybody could get a loan and the borrowers had little or no skin in the game,'' said Brian Horey, general partner at Aurelian Partners LP in New York, which has shorted New Century, Accredited, and Fremont General Corp., a California thrift that's selling its home-lending business.

Subprime lenders resumed their slide on Feb. 21 after NovaStar, a Kansas City, Missouri-based real estate investment trust, posted a surprise fourth-quarter loss and said it won't make much money on its mortgage investments for the next five years.

The stocks plummeted again after New Century said on March 2 that it may need waivers from its own lenders to stay in business and disclosed a criminal probe into its accounting. The same day, Fremont said a regulatory order would require it to stop giving mortgages to people who can't pay, and announced plans to exit the subprime home-loan business.

Shares Slide

The shares slid during the following week as New Century said it halted new loans and didn't have the cash to pay creditors, increasing speculation that the company will go bankrupt. The NYSE suspended trading in the New Century's shares.

The rout continued on March 13 after the Mortgage Bankers Association said late payments on subprime loans reached a four- year high of 13.3 percent, and foreclosures on all home loans rose to a record. Accredited led the decline after the company said it was considering ``strategic options'' because it couldn't meet its own lenders' demands for cash.

Horey of Aurelian Partners, who initiated his short positions in July and August, said he expects shares of subprime lenders to continue to fall as loan delinquencies and home foreclosures increase over the next few months.

``We're still in the early innings of the whole housing and lending slowdown,'' he said. ``We're not going to see a bottom probably before the end of this year.''

`Beginning of Wave'

That view is shared by Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies, who said on March 9 that subprime defaults are at the ``beginning of a wave'' and banks are likely to see more missed payments and foreclosures as consumers with weak credit histories begin to face higher monthly mortgage payments.

Dalton's Persky says more subprime lenders may be forced into bankruptcy as they struggle to secure financing from investment banks and other institutions that purchase their loans and package them into securities to sell to investors.

``Their financing is dependent on being able to sell these subprime asset-backed securities, and the demand for that is now zero,'' said Persky. ``They won't be able to survive.''

New Century said yesterday that Fannie Mae, the biggest source of money for U.S. mortgages, served notice it will no longer buy the company's loans.

Shares of subprime lenders may be buoyed by acquisitions and new financing from hedge funds and banks. The stocks rebounded last week after buyout fund Blackstone Group LP agreed to acquire PHH Corp.'s home-lending business and Bear Stearns Cos., the biggest underwriter of mortgage-backed bonds, said it may buy more subprime loans.

Goldman Looking

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. may consider an acquisition of a subprime-lending company at bargain prices, the Wall Street Journal said on March 14, citing Chief Financial Officer David Viniar.

Accredited shares jumped 20 percent yesterday after the company got a $200 million loan from hedge-fund manager Farallon Capital Management LLC, giving the company time to attract more financing or find a buyer. Today, Citadel Investment Group LLC, the hedge fund that purchased bankrupt subprime lender ResMae Mortgage Corp., reported a 4.5 percent stake in Accredited.

``You have some of these subprime lenders that looked like they were going bankrupt getting lines of credit,'' said Steve Neimeth, who manages about $900 million at AIG SunAmerica Asset Management in Jersey City, New Jersey. ``Hedge funds and other financial institutions lending to them who are doing their due diligence say, `Things are OK, we'll lend to you.'''

Accredited has climbed 192 percent from an all-time low of $3.97 on March 13, and NovaStar has gained 78 percent during the same period. New Century is up 106 percent from an all-time low of 67 cents on March 14.

Deepening Woes?

Still, some traders said the subprime lenders' woes may be just beginning.

``I don't think anybody knows the extent of their problems,'' said Joseph Parnes, who helps manage $82 million as president of Baltimore-based Technomart Investment Advisors. He has short positions in mortgage lenders including American Home Mortgage Investment Corp.

The following list highlights some of the biggest moves among the most-shorted U.S. stocks last month. Percentage changes are from Feb. 12 to March 12, the date when this month's figures were compiled. ``Winners'' are stocks that fell in price, while ``losers'' rose.

Winners

CV Therapeutics Inc. (CVTX US) declined 28 percent after traders shorted 30 percent of its shares. The drugmaker said on March 6 that its chest-pain treatment, Ranexa, didn't help people with acute heart disease in a study.

Home Solutions of America Inc. (HSOA US) dropped 31 percent after 39 percent of its float was shorted. The provider of home- renovation services in disaster areas said on March 5 that net income last year rose less than the company forecast because of the slowdown in the U.S. housing market.

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV US) fell 18 percent after 34 percent of its shares were sold short. The sixth-largest U.S. homebuilder by revenue posted a fiscal first-quarter loss on March 8 that exceeded analysts' estimates. The company took charges of $93 million on canceled contracts for homes in southwest Florida and to write off its 2005 purchase of a Florida homebuilder.

Losers

Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co. (GAP US) rose 17 percent after 21 percent of its shares were sold short. The owner of A&P and Food Emporium supermarkets agreed on March 5 to buy Pathmark Stores Inc. for $689.7 million to expand in the U.S. Northeast.

KBW Inc. (KBW US) climbed 23 percent after 31 percent of its float was shorted. The investment bank that focuses on advising other financial firms said on Feb. 20 that fourth-quarter net income more than tripled as revenue from mergers and acquisitions surged. Earnings were almost three times as high as the average analyst estimate compiled by Bloomberg.

Movie Gallery Inc. (MOVI US) gained 27 percent after traders sold short 29 percent of its shares. The second-largest U.S. video-rental chain said on Feb. 20 that it will receive $900 million in financing from a group led by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The financing will help the company avoid defaulting on some debt, according to Moody's Investors Service, a ratings service.

Nah, let's just keep blaming the go-betweens. Wall Street was happily buying subprime loans just a few months ago, demanding more and more, then they suddenly stop buying them and start shorting. But oh no! it's those evil subprime lenders who caused all this!

Who wants to bet that Christmas bonuses at Goldman Sachs will be even bigger this year than last?

:roll: <^>