Housing: 2007 Thread.

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Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,379
96
86
Originally posted by: dullard
Is the no-downpayment loan going to go the way of the Dodo? Is this just a fluke? Or is this a sign of things to come? Does anyone in the business have an idea?

If the banks stop the flood of people coming to the market, that'll just be one more downward pressure on the housing market.

I like how they announced it after the close of market trading on a Friday. Any other time and their stock would take a pounding. NEW dropped what, 75% in the 2 days after they stopped sub-prime loans?
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
new only stopped because their conduit warehouse providers, who provide temporary liquiduty until term securitzation, or whole-loan sale, had covenants and trigger evevts built into their facilities to prevent a loss to their investments. these conduits are funded by short-term commercial paper. I structure these types of deals for a living, to hit a trigger and not get a waver means that the providers are thinking new has many more problems coming up.

this is only the beginning.

Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Originally posted by: dullard
Is the no-downpayment loan going to go the way of the Dodo? Is this just a fluke? Or is this a sign of things to come? Does anyone in the business have an idea?

If the banks stop the flood of people coming to the market, that'll just be one more downward pressure on the housing market.

I like how they announced it after the close of market trading on a Friday. Any other time and their stock would take a pounding. NEW dropped what, 75% in the 2 days after they stopped sub-prime loans?

 

SarcasticDwarf

Diamond Member
Jun 8, 2001
9,574
2
76
Originally posted by: dullard
Is the no-downpayment loan going to go the way of the Dodo? Is this just a fluke? Or is this a sign of things to come? Does anyone in the business have an idea?

If the banks stop the flood of people coming to the market, that'll just be one more downward pressure on the housing market.

I hate how this tends to hurt responsible people. I know that in another two years when I hit the workforce (masters degree) I will be looking to purchase a home. If I can afford the payments, why should I not be able to purchase a home? Keep in mind that this is in an area where rent on a crappy 2BR apartment is $700+/month and a decent house can be purchased for 80k. The fact is that now we have two groups that will not be purchasing houses in the next few years-the subprime group and those that recently entered the workforce (and therefore do not have 10k+ saved up).

 

Dr. Detroit

Diamond Member
Sep 25, 2004
8,530
934
126
Another front page story for the Silicon Valley on agents, brokers, and lenders caught up in major fraud and how they helped fuel the boom.

http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_5411822

Luis Mapula was living in a converted garage with his wife and two daughters and earning $54,000 a year as a fence company construction worker. Then, almost like magic, he became the owner of a $543,000 home with no down payment.

Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac off Quimby Road in East San Jose, the two-bedroom home was to have been his family's piece of the American dream. Instead, it became a financial trap that consumed most of Mapula's income. He got out only after his real estate broker took back the home and paid off the loan as part of a legal settlement.

Renters once again, the family has no plans to buy another home.

"Better a garage than live without enough to eat," Mapula's wife, Cristina Plata, said through a translator.

The couple are among a growing number of Latinos in Santa Clara County who say they've been victimized by a dark side of the housing boom in which people who speak limited or no English bought homes they couldn't afford based on exaggerated statements of income they say they knew nothing about. The deals generate commissions and fees for a chain of intermediaries, but can leave home buyers in foreclosure with ruined credit.

In most of the cases examined by the Mercury News, buyers complain that their loan disclosures weren't translated into Spanish, as required by law, and that they didn't understand the terms of their loans. Their stories reflect a national problem that is particularly acute in California, where thousands of lower-income families became first-time homeowners during the housing boom by getting non-traditional "subprime" loans. Those loans, which carry higher interest rates, typically have been given to borrowers who are higher credit risks or have income that is difficult to verify. But as lenders face a wave of defaults, they're getting stricter about who receives money just as borrowers are trying to refinance their way out of mortgages they can't afford.
Loan applications

Borrowers signed

mortgage papers

It's not always clear whom to blame when false statements appear on loan documents or when payments are obviously more than the buyer can afford, because the buyers sign the papers.

Attorneys say their clients, largely lower-income, Spanish-speaking buyers who did not understand what they were signing, were misled by real estate professionals whom they trusted.


More of the story can be found by clicking the link above.



 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,379
96
86
Partially mislead and partially frothing at the thought of making big $$$ "like everyone else" in RE. I guarantee you they wouldnt be complaining if they could sell for a profit.


All coming back to greed.
 

SarcasticDwarf

Diamond Member
Jun 8, 2001
9,574
2
76
Originally posted by: Fmr12B
Another front page story for the Silicon Valley on agents, brokers, and lenders caught up in major fraud and how they helped fuel the boom.

http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_5411822




I love the old "I did not know what I was signing" excuse. Come on. You never, EVER sign anything unless you know what it means, especially when it comes to a major purchase. It seems that the papers in CA are assigning blame to everyone except the homeowners.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
26,047
4,691
126
Wow! This was so unexpected. No one could have possibly imagined this, not to mention discuss it publically for a year+. But, you'll be shocked to find out that 4th quarter 2006 foreclosures set new record. Now 0.54% of homes are in foreclosure. The previous record was 0.50% in 2002. The delinquency rate is also high: up to 4.95% of homes.

Hmm, record number of unusual loans that are just starting to reset their teaser rates to higher rates. I wish there was some sort of correlation, but I can't see any reason for this increase in foreclosures.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
LEND is down 60%+ today. Another one bites the dust. This snowball has just started rolling, it'll get much bigger before it smashes the village below.
 

Trianon

Golden Member
Jun 13, 2000
1,789
0
71
www.conkurent.com
Another dump, thank you very much!
TextLINK

Stocks plunge 2% as subprime mortgage woes deeepen

NEW YORK (AP) ? Stocks plunged Tuesday as troubles for subprime lenders kept piling up and U.S. retail sales came in weaker than anticipated, leading investors to brace for a wilting economy. The Dow Jones industrials fell more than 200 points.
At the close of trading, the Dow fell 242.98, or 2%, to 12,075.96. Broader stock indicators also fell. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 23.66, or 2%, to 1377.94, and the Nasdaq composite index slid 51.72, or 2.2%, to 2350.57.


SUBPRIME WOES: Meltdown continues
Volume on the New York Stock Exchange, where declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than 4 to 1, was high at 1.56 billion shares.

Trading collars were triggered Tuesday afternoon when the New York Stock Exchange Composite index lost more than 180 points. The collars put a chokehold on certain orders, forbidding transactions that capitalize on discrepancies in prices.

Investors fled the already deflated stocks of subprime mortgage lenders as the sector's problems mounted.

The New York Stock Exchange said shortly before the opening bell it would immediately suspend trading in shares of New Century Financial and move to delist the stock. The lender, which saw trading in its shares halted throughout Monday's session, on Tuesday disclosed more details on the raft of financial hurdles it faces.

Word from Accredited Home Lenders Holding that it is grappling with a liquidity shortfall also bolstered concerns that the sector's troubles are widespread, as did a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association, which showed that mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures climbed in the last quarter of 2006.

"The market's still jittery, and they're starting to get full-blown concerns over a bleed in the larger subprime mortgage market," said Matt Kelmon, portfolio manager of the Kelmoore Strategy Funds.

He noted that the subprime market is a relatively small sector of the U.S. economy, but that Tuesday's selling was accentuated by options expiring and increased volatility since the market's big tumble in late February ? a drop that was caused partially by the problems of subprime lenders, who loan to people with poor credit.

The market was also worried Tuesday about retailers, which the Commerce Department said eked out a meager 0.1% rise in sales last month. The data overshadowed a profit report from Goldman Sachs Group that came in well above Wall Street's forecast.

The worries surrounding subprime lenders and sluggish retail sales drove up bond prices. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.50% from 4.56% late Monday. Gold prices fell.

Tuesday's economic data didn't offer much support for bullish investors. The Commerce Department said sales at U.S. retailers rose 0.1% in February as wintry weather in much of the country kept shoppers away from stores. Investors had expected an increase of 0.3% from January.

"I think a big question mark on this is how much of this is weather-related," said Rob Lutts, chief investment officer at Cabot Money Management. "We had two or three days during the month which knocked out activity. ... I think it is causing a little bit of alarm short-term."

Several retailers fell moderately following the Commerce Department's report.

Meanwhile Tuesday, New Century said regulators subpoenaed documents under inquiries into accounting errors that inflated the value of the company's loan portfolio. The Irvine, Calif., company said the Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Central District of California began the investigations two weeks ago.

Accredited Home shares plunged after it disclosed its own liquidity problems.

Investors trying to determine the breadth of the problems in the subprime sector pounced on comments from Goldman Sachs. The investment bank said strength remained in mortgages and credit products during the quarter and that while the subprime sector showed "significant weakness," the broader credit environment "remained strong."

Goldman Sachs rose after posting a best-ever first-quarter profit amid strong revenue from trading and investment banking.

The Mortgage Bankers Association's quarterly report on the mortgage market didn't surprise most investors, but confirmed their worries that the sector is struggling. Late mortgage payments soared to a 3 1/2-year high in the fourth quarter of last year, and new foreclosures hit a record high.

Light, sweet crude fell 98 cents to $57.93 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Overseas, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 0.7%. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 1.2%, Germany's DAX index fell 1.4%, and France's CAC-40 fell 1.15%.

Copyright 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
 

GoPackGo

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 2003
6,519
595
126
Originally posted by: smack Down
Originally posted by: GoPackGo
The FED is going to HAVE TO drop rates or this will only get worse.

It should get worse. Housing is extremely overpriced.

What and SCREW everyone thats bought a house in the last 10 years?
 

smack Down

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2005
4,507
0
0
Originally posted by: GoPackGo
Originally posted by: smack Down
Originally posted by: GoPackGo
The FED is going to HAVE TO drop rates or this will only get worse.

It should get worse. Housing is extremely overpriced.

What and SCREW everyone thats bought a house in the last 10 years?

Yes, It isn't my fault they overpaid. Just like people who purchased pets.com stock got screw.
 

GoPackGo

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 2003
6,519
595
126
Originally posted by: smack Down
Originally posted by: GoPackGo
Originally posted by: smack Down
Originally posted by: GoPackGo
The FED is going to HAVE TO drop rates or this will only get worse.

It should get worse. Housing is extremely overpriced.

What and SCREW everyone thats bought a house in the last 10 years?

Yes, It isn't my fault they overpaid. Just like people who purchased pets.com stock got screw.

The only reason most people would have overpaid is that they were told by a licensed apprasier what a home was worth and were told by a banker what they could qualify for.

If now it turns out they were scammed, whose fault is it?

Theres supposed to be a reason behind licenses and regulation.
 

Dr. Detroit

Diamond Member
Sep 25, 2004
8,530
934
126
In reality the correction of home prices should only affect those who bought in 2004, 2005, and 2006. Those three years averaged 15-20% price increases on average. If you bought before that you should be somewhat safe and not lose your ass provided you did not get too happy and take out a HELOC.

I would implore the Feds to not lower rates and let this work itself out. They should also begin to pass some serious regulations against the housing industry and the collusion of broker, agent, lender, and appraiser.


 

smack Down

Diamond Member
Sep 10, 2005
4,507
0
0
Originally posted by: GoPackGo
Originally posted by: smack Down
Originally posted by: GoPackGo
Originally posted by: smack Down
Originally posted by: GoPackGo
The FED is going to HAVE TO drop rates or this will only get worse.

It should get worse. Housing is extremely overpriced.

What and SCREW everyone thats bought a house in the last 10 years?

Yes, It isn't my fault they overpaid. Just like people who purchased pets.com stock got screw.

The only reason most people would have overpaid is that they were told by a licensed apprasier what a home was worth and were told by a banker what they could qualify for.

If now it turns out they were scammed, whose fault is it?

Theres supposed to be a reason behind licenses and regulation.

So, I didn't hire YOUR appraiser or YOU broker or YOUR real estate agent. Why should I pay money to make YOUR house worth more.
 

BarneyFife

Diamond Member
Aug 12, 2001
3,875
0
76
Originally posted by: GoPackGo
Originally posted by: smack Down
Originally posted by: GoPackGo
The FED is going to HAVE TO drop rates or this will only get worse.

It should get worse. Housing is extremely overpriced.

What and SCREW everyone thats bought a house in the last 10 years?

Actually this is a good thing. The way housing prices were headed, they would have come up with a 75 year loan. Prices were artifically inflated in the first place because lenders were giving loans to everyone which drove the prices through the roof with some neighborhoods nearly doubling in price within a few years. In Michigan, they actually lowered assessments for the first time this year. This is surprising because local governments don't want to lose money.
 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,379
96
86
Originally posted by: dullard
Wow! This was so unexpected. No one could have possibly imagined this, not to mention discuss it publically for a year+. But, you'll be shocked to find out that 4th quarter 2006 foreclosures set new record. Now 0.54% of homes are in foreclosure. The previous record was 0.50% in 2002. The delinquency rate is also high: up to 4.95% of homes.

Hmm, record number of unusual loans that are just starting to reset their teaser rates to higher rates. I wish there was some sort of correlation, but I can't see any reason for this increase in foreclosures.



Rasies hand. I told you that last year, you all laughed at me and said I was stupid. You also laughed at me when I told you to buy puts on the mortgage lenders. The $300K in profit from the sale of my San Francisco home in 2005 is almost worth a million now, thank you housing bubble!!
 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
12,379
96
86
Originally posted by: GoPackGo
The FED is going to HAVE TO drop rates or this will only get worse.


In case you havent noticed inflation is getting worse, wages are increasing, energy prices are rising, and the budget deficit is at an all time high. Unless BB wans to kill the $$$, rates are closer to going up than they are to going down.

 

tallest1

Diamond Member
Jul 11, 2001
3,474
0
0
If I may, I have a question about my housing situation:

Right now, I live alone in a 3/1 1010sq ft. House in a Florida college town (slower depreciation than neighboring towns). I bought the house for $118k and I pay $930 a month (80/10/10 30-year fixed), $780 if I can pay off the $14k second mortgage.

The house itself is very old but not crappy at all and I constantly do DIY work on it. The price inflation on this home is worlds apart from what they have in California and a higher paying job (and renting out a room) would make mortgage payments a piece of cake.

I am seeing the prices on homes going down around me but assuming I don't sell anytime soon, would the housing bust affect me too?

Edit: Lemme rephrase: how would it affect me, aside from not being able to sell the home above cost?
 

theeedude

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,197
126
Originally posted by: tallest1
If I may, I have a question about my housing situation:

Right now, I live alone in a 3/1 1010sq ft. House in a Florida college town (slower depreciation than neighboring towns). I bought the house for $118k and I pay $930 a month (80/10/10 30-year fixed), $780 if I can pay off the $14k second mortgage.

The house itself is very old but not crappy at all and I constantly do DIY work on it. The price inflation on this home is worlds apart from what they have in California and a higher paying job (and renting out a room) would make mortgage payments a piece of cake.

I am seeing the prices on homes going down around me but assuming I don't sell anytime soon, would the housing bust affect me too?

No, you only have a $118K house. That is nothing. Even if it becomes worthless, you'll only be out of $118K. That's not going to happen. You are at a collegetown, and those are attractive places to own because you can always rent them out to college kids, and people generally like living next to a college because it makes them feel younger. On the other hand, where I live, a house like that would cost about $600K+, so if it dropped 20%, that loss would exceed the value of your house.
 

ericlp

Diamond Member
Dec 24, 2000
6,137
225
106
n a conference call Tuesday with Goldman Sachs officials, stock analyst Glenn Schorr of UBS spoke for many investors:

"We are all trying to figure out if we're whistling past the graveyard or watching a slow-moving train wreck," he told Goldman's chief financial officer, David Viniar.

Notice that neither of those alternatives is comforting.

Schorr was referring to the subprime mortgage market, a once-booming corner of the credit market that, by some accounts, is imploding.

Ought to be real interesting for the stock market this week... Could be really bad... or it could just maintain.