Originally posted by: Trianon
I like how eloquiently they put that NAR analysts are CRAZY in the title of the article
TextBucking conventional wisdom, a trade group for real estate agents on Monday said the battered housing market is on the verge of stabilizing and inched up its outlook for 2007 and 2008 home sales.
The revised monthly forecast from the National Association of Realtors, which followed nine straight months of downward revisions, calls for U.S. existing home sales to fall 12.5 percent this year to 5.67 million ? the lowest level since 2002. Last month, the association predicted 5.66 million existing homes would be sold this year.
The Realtors' group also forecast sales will rise slightly in 2008 to 5.7 million, up from last month's prediction of 5.69 million.
Numerous other economists, however, are far less optimistic than the trade group. They predict weak sales and falling prices through next year and beyond and emphasize that those problems could worsen if the economy sinks into a recession.
Here's another good quote...
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the worst part of the credit crunch has already worked its way through the data. ?The unusual mortgage disruptions that peaked in August were clearly seen in lower home sales that were finalized in September and October, so the market was underperforming,? he said. ?Now that mortgage conditions have improved, some postponed activity should turn up in existing-home sales over the next couple of months, and I expect sales at fairly stable to slightly higher levels.?
This guy is just so funny. From what we are seeing and what you can see in the WSJ and every other finance publication, the credit turn is just starting. Prime mortages are starting to get dinged. Auto and cards are ticking up also, materially.